Given that, no matter how much water they put on the track, it just keeps quickening during the day, and will do so again tomorrow, I'd be shocked if I Am Maximus starts favourite tomorrow. It should (and I think will) be Hewick.
The latter first got my curiosity as Lizard Lounge is where I spent too many student nights in Bristol, but also looks to actually have a live chance in this race imo. Was fine over these fences two years ago I think...
If you took the Group to Finish bet, well done. The ground is very much our buddy. 22 of 29 finished in the Foxhunters yesterday and 23 of 30 just finished in the Topham (average 76.3%).
Bluffers Guide to the 2025 Grand National - the final chapter:
DUFFLE COAT
Is nailed on to win:
Was running well as 12-00 top weight when BD 2 out in Nov chase over 30f at last months’s Festival on GS
Loves Good ground; close 2nd in July’s Galway Plate
8yo, 2nd season chaser - the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
Has no chance because:
Wild Risk appears nowhere in his pedigree: 134 GN runners since 2013 were likewise (31.4% of fields), producing zero winners
Trainer Gordon Elliott is in poor form: only 2 winners from 42 runs in past 14 days
spookily, another horse called Duffle Coat ran in Red Rum's record-breaking 3rd GN victory in 1977, carrying 10-04, just as this Duffle Coat will tomorrow. His namesake running in 1977 fell at the first fence.
That's it folks.
34 of them nailed on. And 34 of them with no chance.
Not as involved as I used to be (just can't get bets on or it's too much hassle at the very least) but think changes since 2013 make younger horses more of interest. Average age of winner last 10yrs dropped to 8.5 compared to around 10 the 10yrs prior to that. So with that in mind and adding a few other factors (jockeys, trainers etc...) landed on Senior Chief who I think looks fairly solid having been well fancied for Irish National. Other being Meetingofthewaters. Never know with connections what they've been up to but interesting that Danny Mullins on it I thought. Ground a worry but wouldn't let that put me off him too much.
Not as involved as I used to be (just can't get bets on or it's too much hassle at the very least) but think changes since 2013 make younger horses more of interest. Average age of winner last 10yrs dropped to 8.5 compared to around 10 the 10yrs prior to that. So with that in mind and adding a few other factors (jockeys, trainers etc...) landed on Senior Chief who I think looks fairly solid having been well fancied for Irish National. Other being Meetingofthewaters. Never know with connections what they've been up to but interesting that Danny Mullins on it I thought. Ground a worry but wouldn't let that put me off him too much.
Bet365's Top 10 Finish prices individually remain unappealing IMHO.
BUT, its Bet Builder enables you to do an accumulator on 2 or more finishing Top 10 and, with some Free Bets to deploy, I've had my first of probably 2 free fun bets: Minella Cocooner, Minella Indo, Vanillier and Bravemansgame at 75/1
First 3 don't take much explanation (though I'm conscious that Rachel will look after Indo if he gets into trouble - otherwise I expect him to love the ground) but why Bravemansgame?
He may have lost some gears but, judging by Nicholls' comments
after the Denman Chase, not his enthusiasm and the 10 yo GC runner-up from 3
years ago has come down nicely in the weights (GNOR155 from peak of 172 - best
RPR of 159 this season but career-best set over furthest trip attempted, the GC
on Soft ground), so will have just 11-00 to carry.
What piques my interest in him is that GN runners sharing his
mtDNA I2a1 (like N2a, originating from the horses of the Barbary coast, known
for hardiness and stamina), while scoring par in terms of GN frame-makers, have
a great completion record: 57% compared to GN average 43% for all other GN
runners since 2013.
Bravemansgame himself has never failed to complete in 26 races.
He's nicely linebred to Wild Risk (one of the pedigree features
of Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus, The Big Dog, Vics Canvas and Walk In The Mill) but, like Tiger, Max and only 3 other horses to run in GNs since 2013, he has WR's son Le Fabuleux (a pronounced stamina-influence) on his damside. BTW, so too does Iroko.
He's also related (albeit distantly) to Synchronised and GN winner Rough Quest, so there are decent indications that he may see the trip out
surprisingly well, especially on a decent surface and if astutely ridden to
optimise his placing, rather than under the illusion of having a winning
chance.
I expect that to be so with (first-time) partner James Reveley,
who safely piloted Roi Mage into 9th last year.
Used up my Bet365 free bets with 2 more Bet Builder Top 10 Finish wagers:
the model's next best in the ratings below Intense Raffles, aside from Minella Indo: Stumptown, Hyland, Twig, Monbeg Genius at 110/1
a flyer on 2 apparent no-hopers of Gordon Elliott but with interesting pedigrees: Fil Dor and Conflated, also with Vanillier and Minella Cocooner at 170/1
All the best everyone.
Apologies in advance if you've followed my model and this is the year it crashes and burns (it's going to happen at some point).
Above all, let's hope it's a great race with no injuries to horse or jockey.
Used up my Bet365 free bets with 2 more Bet Builder Top 10 Finish wagers:
the model's next best in the ratings below Intense Raffles, aside from Minella Indo: Stumptown, Hyland, Twig, Monbeg Genius at 110/1
a flyer on 2 apparent no-hopers of Gordon Elliott but with interesting pedigrees: Fil Dor and Conflated, also with Vanillier and Minella Cocooner at 170/1
All the best everyone.
Apologies in advance if you've followed my model and this is the year it crashes and burns (it's going to happen at some point).
Above all, let's hope it's a great race with no injuries to horse or jockey.
Enjoy!!
This thread is fascinating year on year. Absolutely brilliant work Peanuts and hey, if the fact the first (truly) Good ground race since the material fence changes and necessary model tweaking means things go tits up, it provides yet more data which is only good.
However, the market broadly agrees with you - a market that has a couple of not-egregious outliers it seems (e.g. Hewick no cigar, or I Am Maximus with ground concerns) - so I'm keeping the faith!
Such a good thread @PeanutsMolloy - I know nothing about horses but read every post on here as I find it fascinating. Good luck today, I hope you win big!
I am relatively certain that bet365 have had to amend their betting profiles, well certainly my bet365 profile and what i can place (nothing) solely because of peanutsmalloys work over the years.
Here's hoping, but not expecting, a good year for all concerned and thanks Peanuts for the schooling.
and my final wager: £2 at 1900/1 that all of my model's top 7 finish in the Top 10: Kandoo Kid, Iroko, Vanillier, Minella Cocooner, Senior Chief, Intense Raffles and Minella Indo.
And if that comes in ....... adios muchachos. See you when I've sobered up, ...... which may take a while.
Comments
The latter first got my curiosity as Lizard Lounge is where I spent too many student nights in Bristol, but also looks to actually have a live chance in this race imo. Was fine over these fences two years ago I think...
The ground is very much our buddy.
22 of 29 finished in the Foxhunters yesterday and 23 of 30 just finished in the Topham (average 76.3%).
above time taken off TV which stopped at that on crossing line - official time 5m 23.72 the 3rd fastest....mmm
DUFFLE COAT
Is nailed on to win:
- Was running well as 12-00 top weight when BD 2 out in Nov chase over 30f at last months’s Festival on GS
- Loves Good ground; close 2nd in July’s Galway Plate
- 8yo, 2nd season chaser - the sweetest of sweet spots: 5 of the last 9 GN winners (55.6%) from just 47 runners (13.5% = x4.1 outperformance)
Has no chance because:That's it folks.
34 of them nailed on.
And 34 of them with no chance.
Enjoy!!
we'll see if he'll make it over the first fence!
Cheers
Prices have tightened a lot but my model ranks them like this:
- Kandoo Kid
- Iroko
- Vanillier
- Minella Cocooner
- Senior Chief
- Intense Raffles
Not much separates the top 5 - all fine on the ground.Cheers
Following your posts a few years ago got me back into the Grand National something I had never really enjoyed since my dad died many years ago.
I’ve backed your top six so fingers crossed for some luck to everyone and the horses
Much appreciated.
I’m glad you enjoy the thread and enjoy the race again.
All the best.
Time to raid the piggy bank and get out my old pesetas from the jar on the shelf.
So with that in mind and adding a few other factors (jockeys, trainers etc...) landed on Senior Chief who I think looks fairly solid having been well fancied for Irish National. Other being Meetingofthewaters. Never know with connections what they've been up to but interesting that Danny Mullins on it I thought. Ground a worry but wouldn't let that put me off him too much.
Class work as ever @PeanutsMolloy
All the best
BUT, its Bet Builder enables you to do an accumulator on 2 or more finishing Top 10 and, with some Free Bets to deploy, I've had my first of probably 2 free fun bets:
Minella Cocooner, Minella Indo, Vanillier and Bravemansgame at 75/1
First 3 don't take much explanation (though I'm conscious that Rachel will look after Indo if he gets into trouble - otherwise I expect him to love the ground) but why Bravemansgame?
He may have lost some gears but, judging by Nicholls' comments after the Denman Chase, not his enthusiasm and the 10 yo GC runner-up from 3 years ago has come down nicely in the weights (GNOR155 from peak of 172 - best RPR of 159 this season but career-best set over furthest trip attempted, the GC on Soft ground), so will have just 11-00 to carry.
What piques my interest in him is that GN runners sharing his mtDNA I2a1 (like N2a, originating from the horses of the Barbary coast, known for hardiness and stamina), while scoring par in terms of GN frame-makers, have a great completion record: 57% compared to GN average 43% for all other GN runners since 2013.
Bravemansgame himself has never failed to complete in 26 races.
He's nicely linebred to Wild Risk (one of the pedigree features of Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus, The Big Dog, Vics Canvas and Walk In The Mill) but, like Tiger, Max and only 3 other horses to run in GNs since 2013, he has WR's son Le Fabuleux (a pronounced stamina-influence) on his damside. BTW, so too does Iroko.
He's also related (albeit distantly) to Synchronised and GN winner Rough Quest, so there are decent indications that he may see the trip out surprisingly well, especially on a decent surface and if astutely ridden to optimise his placing, rather than under the illusion of having a winning chance.
I expect that to be so with (first-time) partner James Reveley, who safely piloted Roi Mage into 9th last year.
- the model's next best in the ratings below Intense Raffles, aside from Minella Indo: Stumptown, Hyland, Twig, Monbeg Genius at 110/1
- a flyer on 2 apparent no-hopers of Gordon Elliott but with interesting pedigrees: Fil Dor and Conflated, also with Vanillier and Minella Cocooner at 170/1
All the best everyone.Apologies in advance if you've followed my model and this is the year it crashes and burns (it's going to happen at some point).
Above all, let's hope it's a great race with no injuries to horse or jockey.
Enjoy!!
We’ll be laughing if either of those come in 🤞
Cheers for the tips. Up the addicks!
However, the market broadly agrees with you - a market that has a couple of not-egregious outliers it seems (e.g. Hewick no cigar, or I Am Maximus with ground concerns) - so I'm keeping the faith!
Untold thanks, as ever.
Good luck today, I hope you win big!
£2 at 1900/1 that all of my model's top 7 finish in the Top 10:
Kandoo Kid, Iroko, Vanillier, Minella Cocooner, Senior Chief, Intense Raffles and Minella Indo.
And if that comes in ....... adios muchachos. See you when I've sobered up, ...... which may take a while.