Do you think, PM, will Intense Raffles run at Fairyhouse? 2.2 weeks break, he's done half of the GN. Better ground for him. I have a bet but am worried he won't be there.
I would have thought so, if they’re happy with him. As you say, Soft ground at his beloved Fairyhouse and not bottomed at Aintree. Ideal.
Thoughts turning to lessons from this year's GN, it very much looks like the reduction in field size, and (thus far at least) the increase in runners still in contention crossing the Melling Road, may represent another watershed in the race for trend-followers.
If you haven't seen it, the RP's Chris Cook's summary is very interesting:
So now we've had two Grand Nationals since the field-size limit was reduced to 34. Last year's race looked markedly different from the race we were used to, while Saturday's version contained more in the way of midrace incident.
But I think I've spotted one way in which both differed from previous Nationals. Last year, I Am Maximus jumped the third-last fence in a restrained ninth place, hard to spot behind a bunched pack. On Saturday, Nick Rockett was also in ninth over the third-last, cruising along as various rivals did each other in ahead of him.
Why is that remarkable? Because in the previous 40 Nationals, just one winner had been that far back in the field at that stage. Full marks if you named One For Arthur, who was only 11th as he cleared the third-last, the most relaxed ride a National winner has been given in recent times.
From Grittar in 1982 to Corach Rambler in 2023, no other National winner was further back than sixth over the third-last. Most of them were already prominent and clearly fighting it out, even though there was a long way to go.
No fewer than 15 of those 40 winners led over the third-last. Back in the 80s and 90s, that was the right place to be; whichever horse was in front at that stage went on to win more than half the time.
Sometimes, like Rhyme 'N' Reason, they would give up the lead after that point, only to wrestle it back. More often, like Grittar or Little Polveir or Mr Frisk or Royal Athlete, they would just keep on chugging remorselessly.
It happened so often in those days, I wonder that more wasn't made of it. "Papillon clears the third-last in front, which means he's probably going to win, and over to Peter O'Sullevan..."
Ruby Walsh knew the score. He had both of his National winners in front over the third-last.
But that approach seemed to go out of fashion after Hedgehunter's year in 2005. Since then, only Ballabriggs and Many Clouds have led over the third-last and gone on to victory.
We've now had nine consecutive Nationals where the winner has been waiting to pounce at that point, rather than playing 'catch me if you can'. It's the longest such run since the 60s, at least.
An obvious reason for the change is that far more horses are in contention at a late stage these days. In my first National, the race had boiled down to Greasepaint or Hallo Dandy by the third-last. Four years later, there were only three who had a realistic chance of getting to Rhyme 'N' Reason.
In an old-school National, there would have been fallers and unseated riders and some of the hold-up horses would have run into trouble. Maybe four or five would still have a chance after Valentine's.
Clearly, that's not going to be the way of it in years to come. On Saturday, more than half the field were giving their backers some kind of hope after 25 fences.
The new style National will tend to put a greater emphasis on stamina. Having more horses involved for longer should mean a strong pace is sustained.
Hence the reward for the restraint shown by Patrick Mullins on Saturday, and by Paul Townend last year. The plots of these Nationals didn't develop until a much later stage than the ones I remember from the 80s.
Look at what happened to the group of seven that led the field back towards the grandstands. In front were Celebre D'Allen, who tired rapidly from the second-last and was pulled up, and Beauport, eventually 12th.
Grangeclare West (who finished third) and Minella Cocooner (seventh) were right behind, tracked by Senior Chief (fifth), Bravemansgame (15th) and Hewick (eighth). In other words, only one of that leading group made it into the places. Back in the 80s and 90s, that leading group would have fought out the finish.
This is what makes me think that Grangeclare West got drawn into the heat of the argument two or three fences earlier than ideal. While he was being urged to go after the leaders, the two who would eventually beat him were further back and being allowed to creep into it.
If I'm right, how does this help us as punters in the future? I'd say we're looking for stamina-laden runners whose jockeys will protect them from the heat of battle for as long as possible. But, even more than in the past, we're going to have to trust that the jockey concerned will deliver the right ride.
It's also interesting that the smaller-field National has so far favoured the class horses. Those set to carry less than 11 stone used to make up the majority of winners but Iroko (fourth) has been the only horse carrying less than 11st 4lb to get placed in the last two runnings.
Only 3 horses ran the last furlong quicker than they ran the penultimate furlong - Nick Rockett (15.87secs v 16.02s) and which others? Not Max; nor Grangeclare West, though he was close to doing so.
They were Iroko in 4th (15.9s v 16.09s) and, at a slower pace, Senior Chief in 6th (16.22s v 16.29).
Virtually matching the winner's finishing speed, there's no question that Iroko saw the trip out well. He looks particularly interesting for next year when (hopefully) returning as an 8yo and potentially off the same mark.
Iroko definitely on my short list already. Pitty about Minella Cocooner's saddle, he'll be 10 next year so probably out of the chances. We might guess the horses well but what a given jockey is going to do is another matter. And if all jockeys tried the 'creeping into it', that would make a strange and probably slow race. Possibly having a leading horse from the same stable to take a 'fake' fast lead while the winner waits could be a way to do it, but you'd be sacrificing someone else's chances.
Right old fuck up at Fairyhouse, with today's card abandoned and doubts over tomorrow. Standing water on the track after 21 mm overnight - unfortunately they'd been watering during the week. Could be an interesting Irish GN on Monday - changeable weather continuing. Don't rule out 13yo Any Second Now finally having his National victory.
I think we're way short of the quality of last year's renewal, in which ANY SECOND NOW was beaten just 1.5L. Off 1lb lower mark, there's absolutely no reason to believe the veteran's a spent force and he's Mark Walsh's choice of ride, once again. Especially with the ground likely Soft or worse, 18/1 (6 places) with BetVictor or 20s (5 places) with Lads looks excellent each way value to me.
If Mr Incredible was a reclamation project that failed, DUNBOYNE is one that may just succeed. A strong staying pedigree (closely related to the dour stayer Madame Parfois), even with quicker than ideal ground, he was a big disappointment in the 2023 Aintree GN and a year later ran another stinker on more suitable ground at Fairyhouse. Those were among 5 PUs in his final 6 outings for Gordon Elliott. He is a right monkey but a change of yard has seemingly rekindled his interest and he's 2 from 2 for new trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue, including a cosy win in last month's 28.5f Ulster National. If he is truly back in love with the game, he could run a massive race at 33/1 (6 places).
MALINA GIRL (16/1, 6 places), another Ulster National winner,will likely be matched with a stallion sometime soon. She ran a cracker in the Ultima last time out and though the form of that race is yet to check out, it was a strongly-run affair on ground that was on the quick side for her. A course winner, she'll appreciate Monday's more testing ground.
Best of the younger chasers IMHO is JOHNNYWHO (10/1), whose dam was 4th in this behind Numbersixvalverde (and won over 4 miles) and who's by Califet (sire of Midlands National winner Beauport). Strongly staying-on close 2nd in the Kim Muir (form of that looks decent) and has a big pull at the weights with the winner (Daily Present). The ride of top amateur Derek O'Connor.
Comments
As you say, Soft ground at his beloved Fairyhouse and not bottomed at Aintree. Ideal.
If you haven't seen it, the RP's Chris Cook's summary is very interesting:
Only 3 horses ran the last furlong quicker than they ran the penultimate furlong - Nick Rockett (15.87secs v 16.02s) and which others?
Not Max; nor Grangeclare West, though he was close to doing so.
They were Iroko in 4th (15.9s v 16.09s) and, at a slower pace, Senior Chief in 6th (16.22s v 16.29).
Virtually matching the winner's finishing speed, there's no question that Iroko saw the trip out well. He looks particularly interesting for next year when (hopefully) returning as an 8yo and potentially off the same mark.
We might guess the horses well but what a given jockey is going to do is another matter. And if all jockeys tried the 'creeping into it', that would make a strange and probably slow race. Possibly having a leading horse from the same stable to take a 'fake' fast lead while the winner waits could be a way to do it, but you'd be sacrificing someone else's chances.
Standing water on the track after 21 mm overnight - unfortunately they'd been watering during the week.
Could be an interesting Irish GN on Monday - changeable weather continuing.
Don't rule out 13yo Any Second Now finally having his National victory.
I think we're way short of the quality of last year's renewal, in which ANY SECOND NOW was beaten just 1.5L.
Off 1lb lower mark, there's absolutely no reason to believe the veteran's a spent force and he's Mark Walsh's choice of ride, once again.
Especially with the ground likely Soft or worse, 18/1 (6 places) with BetVictor or 20s (5 places) with Lads looks excellent each way value to me.
If Mr Incredible was a reclamation project that failed, DUNBOYNE is one that may just succeed.
A strong staying pedigree (closely related to the dour stayer Madame Parfois), even with quicker than ideal ground, he was a big disappointment in the 2023 Aintree GN and a year later ran another stinker on more suitable ground at Fairyhouse. Those were among 5 PUs in his final 6 outings for Gordon Elliott.
He is a right monkey but a change of yard has seemingly rekindled his interest and he's 2 from 2 for new trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue, including a cosy win in last month's 28.5f Ulster National.
If he is truly back in love with the game, he could run a massive race at 33/1 (6 places).
MALINA GIRL (16/1, 6 places), another Ulster National winner, will likely be matched with a stallion sometime soon. She ran a cracker in the Ultima last time out and though the form of that race is yet to check out, it was a strongly-run affair on ground that was on the quick side for her.
A course winner, she'll appreciate Monday's more testing ground.
Best of the younger chasers IMHO is JOHNNYWHO (10/1), whose dam was 4th in this behind Numbersixvalverde (and won over 4 miles) and who's by Califet (sire of Midlands National winner Beauport).
Strongly staying-on close 2nd in the Kim Muir (form of that looks decent) and has a big pull at the weights with the winner (Daily Present).
The ride of top amateur Derek O'Connor.