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Playoffs Guaranteed Minimum - Good Friday

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  • ElfsborgAddick
    ElfsborgAddick Posts: 29,079
    edited April 21
    sirjohnhumphrey said:
    There is absolutely no pressure on us next week. This manager and team will relish all the attention being on Wrexham and having the chance to ruin it. We are very difficult to jolly against nowadays and with the likes of Jones, Edwards, Coventry, Godden and Docherty we have an edge and a bit of nastiness about us. 
    Wrexham aren’t in the best of form and will feel the expectation. Our week in training will be very positive whilst theirs will be about managing the pressure. They will be more worried about us than we will be about them.
    Absolutely spot on.

    We have nothing to lose and I think we'll win easily, particularly if Wycombe were to beat Orient(which I doubt they will).
  • swordfish
    swordfish Posts: 4,234
    edited April 21
    ForeverAddickted said:
    swordfish said:
    ForeverAddickted said:
    North Lower Neil said:
    MuttleyCAFC said:
    Beat Wrexham and they will need 3 points against a decent Lincoln. It's very much on.
    If only we'd got 3 points v Lincoln!
    Or if only Wrexham werent gifted any number of referee decisions.

    e.g. their handball goal on Friday
    Sorry but I'm not buying the conspiracy  theory that the officials want Wrexham promoted to excuse posters having got their predictions wrong. 
    Thats fair, but it doesnt hide the fact that they've been gifted decisions in recent weeks.

    Their Burton penalty (even their fans considered soft), their Stockport penalty (and the red card to the Stockport man) that PGMOL apologised to Challinor over. Of course there will always be a touch of luck when you're flying high with decisios

    I dont recall what I said about Wrexham's chances either this coming season, so you can leave off with that one!! - Regardless I'm not one to give a shit if my predictions are right or wrong either way.
    That's fair enough FA, and I don't know what you predicted for Wrexham if anything, but I'm getting tired of seeing posts saying how fortuitous they are and expectations of them falling away when they're not. After 44 games, teams are pretty much where they deserve to be, and I'm just hoping we turn them over next weekend so we go into the last game with a chance of automatics, which would be a remarkable achievement.
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,437
    swordfish said:
    ForeverAddickted said:
    swordfish said:
    ForeverAddickted said:
    North Lower Neil said:
    MuttleyCAFC said:
    Beat Wrexham and they will need 3 points against a decent Lincoln. It's very much on.
    If only we'd got 3 points v Lincoln!
    Or if only Wrexham werent gifted any number of referee decisions.

    e.g. their handball goal on Friday
    Sorry but I'm not buying the conspiracy  theory that the officials want Wrexham promoted to excuse posters having got their predictions wrong. 
    Thats fair, but it doesnt hide the fact that they've been gifted decisions in recent weeks.

    Their Burton penalty (even their fans considered soft), their Stockport penalty (and the red card to the Stockport man) that PGMOL apologised to Challinor over. Of course there will always be a touch of luck when you're flying high with decisios

    I dont recall what I said about Wrexham's chances either this coming season, so you can leave off with that one!! - Regardless I'm not one to give a shit if my predictions are right or wrong either way.
    That's fair enough FA, and I don't know what you predicted for Wrexham if anything, but I'm getting tired of seeing posts saying how fortuitous they are and expectations of them falling away when they're not. After 44 games, teams are pretty much where they deserve to be, and I'm just hoping we turn them over next weekend so we go into the last game with a chance of automatics, which would be a remarkable achievement.
    Oh I fully agree, they're in said position because they deserve to be there for the most part - However watching a few of their recent games (due to their 12:30 KO's) and they've been damned lucky with a few calls to the point where it has been a bit ridiculous.

    Have every confidence we'll beat them too, as they should have lost at Wigan but for some shite finishing.
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,175
    I’d back Orient to score a few against Wycombe on Saturday, if we do our job against Wrexham then the last day will be very exciting 
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 33,641
    edited April 21
    Just seem the ITV highlights of all today's matches. Dont think I'd want to face either Orient or Reading. Might be best to finish 4th or 5th & face Wycombe again !!
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,875
    Despite the 8 goal swing today our GD is still 3 worse than Wycombe's. The reality is that while we've been the form team for 3 months, we were poor for 2 months in late autumn which has cost us a realistic chance of automatic..

    3rd place is definitely a realistic target though, and would mean avoiding Stockport, the most dangerous team to face over 2 legs. Indeed if we can't get 3rd, I'd rather Stockport got 3rd and we instead had a semi against a mediocre Wycombe.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,785
    Callumcafc said:
    Autos (according to Opta)

    Wycombe 70.92%
    Wrexham 23.78%
    Charlton 3.20%
    Stockport 2.10%

    Playoffs

    Reading 49.38%
    Orient 42.54%
    Blackpool 3.92%
    Bolton 3.30%
    Huddersfield 0.86%
    After today...

    Autos

    Wrexham 63.72%
    Wycombe 26.64%
    Charlton 7.58%
    Stockport 2.06%

    Playoffs

    Reading 53.32%
    Orient 46.60%
    Blackpool 0.08%
  • stoneroses19
    stoneroses19 Posts: 7,223
    ForeverAddickted said:
    North Lower Neil said:
    MuttleyCAFC said:
    Beat Wrexham and they will need 3 points against a decent Lincoln. It's very much on.
    If only we'd got 3 points v Lincoln!
    Or if only Wrexham werent gifted any number of referee decisions.

    e.g. their handball goal on Friday
    I hope we have a fair ref on Saturday. Would be gutting to lose out because of a dodgy ref in favour of Wrexham. 
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,028
    soapboxsam said:
    Garrymanilow said:
    Slightly annoying that today we've probably just secured Wrexham's automatic promotion but it does mean that if things stay as they are then two of the other teams on the Playoffs we beat home and away in the league. Can't be too may seasons where that has been the case

    Unfortunately I believe your right and the 'biggest winners' today are Wrexham who won't be as edgy against CAFC now after gaining all 3 points at Blackpool.The dropped points against the two stragglers will now be forgotten as they are now back in the driving seat. 

    It's just feels that despite our brilliant form over the last 25 matches or so the handicap of letting Wrexham get away from us and having the better goal difference may be too much BUT...

    We dream on.
    They'll definitely be edgy if Wycombe win at Orient in the early game, because then they'll need to beat us to keep it in their own hands. A draw would have them level with Wycombe but 3rd on goal difference.
  • charente addick
    charente addick Posts: 3,810
    edited April 22
    Lincoln’s last 6 home games - won 4 drawn 2. 

    Automatics still more unlikely than likely of course but don’t yet rule it out.
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  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,785
    We just have to keep winning games and see where it takes us.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,028
    golfaddick said:
    Just seem the ITV highlights of all today's matches. Dont think I'd want to face either Orient or Reading. Might be best to finish 4th or 5th & face Wycombe again !!
    Orient who yesterday needed a late winner to beat a Cambridge side who will likely be relegated?
    Reading who in their 2 games before yesterday, drew at Northampton and lost at home to Lincoln?

    I'm not worried.
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,175
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    golfaddick said:
    Just seem the ITV highlights of all today's matches. Dont think I'd want to face either Orient or Reading. Might be best to finish 4th or 5th & face Wycombe again !!
    Orient who yesterday needed a late winner to beat a Cambridge side who will likely be relegated?
    Reading who in their 2 games before yesterday, drew at Northampton and lost at home to Lincoln?

    I'm not worried.
    Did you see our tight games against Cambridge, Northampton and Lincoln?
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,785
    edited April 22
    After yesterday’s results, 2nd is likely only happening now if we win both games - that makes the required equation from games elsewhere quite simple.

    We must get to 88 points and…

    - Wrexham must lose or draw at Lincoln (goal difference here is already irrelevant if we get to 88pts)

    - Wycombe must get a maximum of 3pts from Orient (A) and Stockport (H).

    There are less likely permutations where a draw with Burton on the last day could see us up on 86pts on goal difference but we must beat Wrexham next weekend regardless. A draw there isn’t good enough.
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,437
    fenaddick said:
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    golfaddick said:
    Just seem the ITV highlights of all today's matches. Dont think I'd want to face either Orient or Reading. Might be best to finish 4th or 5th & face Wycombe again !!
    Orient who yesterday needed a late winner to beat a Cambridge side who will likely be relegated?
    Reading who in their 2 games before yesterday, drew at Northampton and lost at home to Lincoln?

    I'm not worried.
    Did you see our tight games against Cambridge, Northampton and Lincoln?
    For as long as I can remember, we've always made tougher work of the teams that we should beat more comfortably. Burton on the last day of the season wont be easy either, given we struggled to break them down at their place, and they're now in form.

    I'd be more confident of beating teams in the Play-Offs than beating them.
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,175
    ForeverAddickted said:
    fenaddick said:
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    golfaddick said:
    Just seem the ITV highlights of all today's matches. Dont think I'd want to face either Orient or Reading. Might be best to finish 4th or 5th & face Wycombe again !!
    Orient who yesterday needed a late winner to beat a Cambridge side who will likely be relegated?
    Reading who in their 2 games before yesterday, drew at Northampton and lost at home to Lincoln?

    I'm not worried.
    Did you see our tight games against Cambridge, Northampton and Lincoln?
    For as long as I can remember, we've always made tougher work of the teams that we should beat more comfortably. Burton on the last day of the season wont be easy either, given we struggled to break them down at their place, and they're now in form.

    I'd be more confident of beating teams in the Play-Offs than beating them.
    Me too, just poitning out that Orient struggling against them is no marker of how good a team they are in the same way it isn't much of a marker of how good we are
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,028
    fenaddick said:
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    golfaddick said:
    Just seem the ITV highlights of all today's matches. Dont think I'd want to face either Orient or Reading. Might be best to finish 4th or 5th & face Wycombe again !!
    Orient who yesterday needed a late winner to beat a Cambridge side who will likely be relegated?
    Reading who in their 2 games before yesterday, drew at Northampton and lost at home to Lincoln?

    I'm not worried.
    Did you see our tight games against Cambridge, Northampton and Lincoln?
    I did yes, but i was simply providing a counter to Golfie's point that we should be fearing Orient and Reading as though they're both amazing teams. I would much rather face them than Stockport.
  • Chris_from_Sidcup
    Chris_from_Sidcup Posts: 36,028
    Callumcafc said:
    After yesterday’s results, 2nd is likely only happening now if we win both games - that makes the required equation from games elsewhere quite simple.

    We must get to 88 points and…

    - Wrexham must lose or draw at Lincoln (goal difference here is already irrelevant if we get to 88pts)

    - Wycombe must get a maximum of 3pts from Orient (A) and Stockport (H).

    There are less likely permutations where a draw with Burton on the last day could see us up on 86pts on goal difference but we must beat Wrexham next weekend regardless. A draw there isn’t good enough.
    Not strictly true. Wycombe could get 4 points and we can still go above them.

    Let's say they draw one and win one (by 1 goal) their GD would be 4 better than us. If we won our last 2 games by a margin of 5 goals combined we'd go above them.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,785
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    Callumcafc said:
    After yesterday’s results, 2nd is likely only happening now if we win both games - that makes the required equation from games elsewhere quite simple.

    We must get to 88 points and…

    - Wrexham must lose or draw at Lincoln (goal difference here is already irrelevant if we get to 88pts)

    - Wycombe must get a maximum of 3pts from Orient (A) and Stockport (H).

    There are less likely permutations where a draw with Burton on the last day could see us up on 86pts on goal difference but we must beat Wrexham next weekend regardless. A draw there isn’t good enough.
    Not strictly true. Wycombe could get 4 points and we can still go above them.

    Let's say they draw one and win one (by 1 goal) their GD would be 4 better than us. If we won our last 2 games by a margin of 5 goals combined we'd go above them.
    Yeah we can also go above Wrexham with a draw against Burton but both of them feel more unlikely than just winning both games. Save everyone the edge cases until there’s only one game left lol.
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  • carly burn
    carly burn Posts: 19,466
    Wrexham and Wycombe have both shown frailties against the top sides (of which there are few) in the division where we've faired very well against them.
    Importantly for them, they've got the job done against the lesser sides (of which there are many) and we failed to do so early on.
  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,341
    I think the thread tutor should be put back to the original "Will we make the playoffs?". Since earning six points over the Easter weekend, it's not certain we will need the playoffs. So, while there's the minuscule possibility that we'll avoid them by taking second place, we should revert to the initial question. 
  • CAFCTrev
    CAFCTrev Posts: 5,982
    I know it's a waste of time but Im one of those fans who keeps dwelling on dropped points and where they could have got us. Specifically the Barnsley and Blackpool away games, and the recent Lincoln home game. Had we grabbed wins from those we would be 6 points better off and in second place right now. 

    ...but it is what it is, and if someone offered me a playoff place after the Crawley game in December I would have bitten their hand off!
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 11,175
    If we're going to worry about dropped points then the Peterborough game is the obvious one. But in reality that isn't how it works, over a whole season you will end up pretty much where you deserve. Our late charge has probably come one, maybe two games too late but it's been a hell of a try
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,875
    edited April 22
    If we're talking permutations, you can't rule out Stockport either. If they win their last 2 games, they'll finish on 87 points, so we'd need to win both games to stay ahead of them. After next weekend if we win at Wrexham, Stockport beat Lincoln and Orient beat Wycombe, the table will be

    Wrexham 86
    Charlton 85
    Stockport 84
    Wycombe 84

    Whereas if we draw at Wrexham, it'll be

    Wrexham 87
    Stockport 84
    Wycombe 84
    Charlton 83

    If we can't make the top 2, Stockport coming 3rd and us having 2 legs against Wycombe sound good.
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,437
    edited April 22
    Dunno... I'm still cautious of facing Wycombe.

    Despite sounding like a bit of a twat post-match; Dodds wasn't wrong when he said that they conceded four soft goals against us (I think the only one I'd be really "happy" with conceding was Berry's), and they've got to put it down as a blip because they've been so defensively strong since he's joined the club.

    Its going forward where they suddenly don't look a threat and wouldnt worry me as much.

    Wycombe or Stockport I fear are two Play-Off opponents that could easily get decided on a penalty shootout.
  • Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch
    Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch Posts: 1,789
    edited April 22
    A Burton win against Cambridge + Reading beating Bristol Rovers should put Burton realistically safe (barring huge goal difference swing). After this coming weekend Burton have Wigan at home in midweek to potentially guarantee safety.

    Whatever we're playing for on the last day, be it a top 2 place, top 4, or just maintaining momentum going into the playoffs it'd be ideal if Burton are on the beach.
  • valleynick66
    valleynick66 Posts: 4,891
    Chris_from_Sidcup said:
    Callumcafc said:
    After yesterday’s results, 2nd is likely only happening now if we win both games - that makes the required equation from games elsewhere quite simple.

    We must get to 88 points and…

    - Wrexham must lose or draw at Lincoln (goal difference here is already irrelevant if we get to 88pts)

    - Wycombe must get a maximum of 3pts from Orient (A) and Stockport (H).

    There are less likely permutations where a draw with Burton on the last day could see us up on 86pts on goal difference but we must beat Wrexham next weekend regardless. A draw there isn’t good enough.
    Not strictly true. Wycombe could get 4 points and we can still go above them.

    Let's say they draw one and win one (by 1 goal) their GD would be 4 better than us. If we won our last 2 games by a margin of 5 goals combined we'd go above them.
    So what you are saying is we go into injury time against Burton needing one more goal and we bring on Ahadme..🤔☹️
  • charente addick
    charente addick Posts: 3,810
    CAFCTrev said:
    I know it's a waste of time but Im one of those fans who keeps dwelling on dropped points and where they could have got us. Specifically the Barnsley and Blackpool away games, and the recent Lincoln home game. Had we grabbed wins from those we would be 6 points better off and in second place right now. 

    ...but it is what it is, and if someone offered me a playoff place after the Crawley game in December I would have bitten their hand off!
    Don't forget that, as well as our last 27 game charge, we had a good return from the first 6 games. If you're looking to 'blame' it was the run of 11 league games from 21st Sept to 3rd Dec where we only took 9 points suffering defeats against Crawley, Exeter, Bris R, Stevenage, Blackpool and Huddersfield.

    Outside of that very bleak run we have taken 73 points from 33 games - form enough to win most Championships. 

    Most promoted teams suffer a bad run during a season - ours was just too bad, or should I say maybe too bad................. 



  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,437
    edited April 22
    CAFCTrev said:
    I know it's a waste of time but Im one of those fans who keeps dwelling on dropped points and where they could have got us. Specifically the Barnsley and Blackpool away games, and the recent Lincoln home game. Had we grabbed wins from those we would be 6 points better off and in second place right now. 

    ...but it is what it is, and if someone offered me a playoff place after the Crawley game in December I would have bitten their hand off!
    Could also argue we had a massive slice of luck against Wrexham at the Valley with the last minute penalty.

    To be fair I like to think there havent been many other cases where we've been "lucky" ourselves with decisions going our way with results like that this season - Although that could be very much because of me wearing my Charlton hat.

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