With Wycombe and Stockport playing each other on the final day, it’s possible that this coming weekend we can guarantee ourselves a home leg in a playoff semi final if either of them lose and we win.
The game at Reading at the start of the season was an odd one. It was a bit of a nothing game with neither team dominating, but Reading put away the two half chances that fell to them.
With Wycombe and Stockport playing each other on the final day, it’s possible that this coming weekend we can guarantee ourselves a home leg in a playoff semi final if either of them lose and we win.
Not if it's Wycombe that lose and Stockport win, unless our goal difference is better than Wycombe's by the time we finish our game with Wrexham, because if they then draw with Stockport and we get nothing against Burton, both Wycombe and Stockport would finish above us.
Edit - actually that still wouldn't guarantee it as Burton might thrash us to wipe out any positive GD over Wycombe
Wycombe don't dwell on defeats for long. Previous defeats this season. League matches only.
Lost at Wrexham 3-2 - lost next game to Birmingham Lost home to Birmingham 3-2 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 19 Lost at Charlton 2-1 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2 Lost home to Huddersfield 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 7 Lost at Birmingham 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2 Lost home to Wrexham 1-0 - won the next 2, unbeaten in 3 Lost at Reading 1-0 - won the next 3, unbeaten in 3 Lost home to Charlton 4-0 - ???
Wycombe don't dwell on defeats for long. Previous defeats this season. League matches only.
Lost at Wrexham 3-2 - lost next game to Birmingham Lost home to Birmingham 3-2 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 19 Lost at Charlton 2-1 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2 Lost home to Huddersfield 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 7 Lost at Birmingham 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2 Lost home to Wrexham 1-0 - won the next 2, unbeaten in 3 Lost at Reading 1-0 - won the next 3, unbeaten in 3 Lost home to Charlton 4-0 - ???
I put this on the Wrexham thread but relevant here:
Reading Wycombs forum the negativity there has really taken over. They hate Dodds and the way he sets up. Plenty saying whatever happens he shouldn't be in charge next season. Lots of rumours the players are unhappy with him. The prevailing view seems to be that they had been lucky to grind out 1-0 wins in the weeks leading up to playing us and that was papering over the cracks.
Can really see them falling apart from here. Definitely a scenario where they lose both games
Wycombe don't dwell on defeats for long. Previous defeats this season. League matches only.
Lost at Wrexham 3-2 - lost next game to Birmingham Lost home to Birmingham 3-2 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 19 Lost at Charlton 2-1 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2 Lost home to Huddersfield 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 7 Lost at Birmingham 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2 Lost home to Wrexham 1-0 - won the next 2, unbeaten in 3 Lost at Reading 1-0 - won the next 3, unbeaten in 3 Lost home to Charlton 4-0 - ???
Losing 4-0 at home to a promotion rival could be major though. We shall see.
Early kickoffs - Wycombe beaten - puts 3rd place in our own hands Reading beat Bristol Rovers - gives Burton the chance to be effectively safe today
3 o'clockers - Burton beat Cambridge (real 6 pointer!) - this result + the Rovers defeat makes their game at ours a dead rubber for them Stockport beaten - we can guarantee finishing top 4 winning either of our remaining games
Early kickoffs - Wycombe beaten - puts 3rd place in our own hands Reading beat Bristol Rovers - gives Burton the chance to be effectively safe today
3 o'clockers - Burton beat Cambridge (real 6 pointer!) - this result + the Rovers defeat makes their game at ours a dead rubber for them Stockport beaten - we can guarantee finishing top 4 winning either of our remaining games
If it stays like that, 1 win from our final 2 games means lowest we can finish is 4th.
They turn it around to win 3-2.
Assuming we dont do similar then its looking like 5th for us.
If we beat Burton we will have 85 points. Stockport & Wycombe draw then they will both have 85 points and better GD. Unless we score 6 without reply against Burton as Stockport & Wycombe have both scored 5 more than us.
A win against Burton & a win for Stockport or Wycombe would mean 4th.
Assuming we sign off our regulation season with a regulation win against Burton...
We'll play the loser of Wycombe/Stockport, away leg first. If they draw we'll have Wycombe, home leg first.
If we don't beat Burton the same applies, but our first leg will be at home.
Our first leg will be on Saturday 10th May (19.45), and second leg on Thursday 15th May (20.00).
We'd need a Wycombe/Stockport draw and us to beat Burton by at least 6, probably 7, to finish 3rd and have different playoff dates. That ain't happening.
2 weeks for those injured players to recover. I wouldn’t be proactively resting players next against Burton but I certainly wouldn’t be risking Jones or Berry
2 weeks for those injured players to recover. I wouldn’t be proactively resting players next against Burton but I certainly wouldn’t be risking Jones or Berry
Yep, agreed. We have a clear best eleven. Whoever starts against Burton and whatever the outcome, it won't be changing that best eleven.
We need Small, Ramsey, Jones, TC, Gillesphey, Godden and Edwards all fit for the play offs which is more important than if we are home or away first. Anyone who needs the rest should've it as the auto's long shot has gone but we need to regroup and go again.
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Edit - actually that still wouldn't guarantee it as Burton might thrash us to wipe out any positive GD over Wycombe
Lost at Wrexham 3-2 - lost next game to Birmingham
Lost home to Birmingham 3-2 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 19
Lost at Charlton 2-1 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2
Lost home to Huddersfield 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 7
Lost at Birmingham 1-0 - won the next 1, unbeaten in 2
Lost home to Wrexham 1-0 - won the next 2, unbeaten in 3
Lost at Reading 1-0 - won the next 3, unbeaten in 3
Lost home to Charlton 4-0 - ???
Reading Wycombs forum the negativity there has really taken over. They hate Dodds and the way he sets up. Plenty saying whatever happens he shouldn't be in charge next season. Lots of rumours the players are unhappy with him. The prevailing view seems to be that they had been lucky to grind out 1-0 wins in the weeks leading up to playing us and that was papering over the cracks.
Can really see them falling apart from here. Definitely a scenario where they lose both games
Early kickoffs -
Wycombe beaten - puts 3rd place in our own hands
Reading beat Bristol Rovers - gives Burton the chance to be effectively safe today
3 o'clockers -
Burton beat Cambridge (real 6 pointer!) - this result + the Rovers defeat makes their game at ours a dead rubber for them
Stockport beaten - we can guarantee finishing top 4 winning either of our remaining games
Evening -
The big one
Win both games & Wrexham drop points at Lincoln.
Wrexham's equation is simpler - win and they're up.
Stockport & Burton up next to answer a few more of the what-if scenarios.
If not, winning the following three will be.
If it stays like that, 1 win from our final 2 games means lowest we can finish is 4th.
Assuming we dont do similar then its looking like 5th for us.
If we beat Burton we will have 85 points. Stockport & Wycombe draw then they will both have 85 points and better GD. Unless we score 6 without reply against Burton as Stockport & Wycombe have both scored 5 more than us.
A win against Burton & a win for Stockport or Wycombe would mean 4th.
A draw or defeat next week means 5th.
Assuming we sign off our regulation season with a regulation win against Burton...
We'll play the loser of Wycombe/Stockport, away leg first.
If they draw we'll have Wycombe, home leg first.
If we don't beat Burton the same applies, but our first leg will be at home.
Our first leg will be on Saturday 10th May (19.45), and second leg on Thursday 15th May (20.00).
We'd need a Wycombe/Stockport draw and us to beat Burton by at least 6, probably 7, to finish 3rd and have different playoff dates. That ain't happening.