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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
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The are the sorts of games I expect 3 points in the most. When we get closer to the end of the season, it’s the mid table teams who have nothing to play for that are easiest pickings.kinveachyaddick said:There’s a lot of very average teams in this league. I’m expecting at least four points from Hull, Preston and Bristol City at home.
Like we used to be in the prem days for teams in the relegation fight1 -
I'm nervous for Tuesday already, as it's such a crucial game now. Win, and I can't see WBA closing the 9 point gap on us. They're really not a good team, they don't have the star players Leicester have, and the "experts" don't rate their squad balance.
If we lose on the other hand, however poor they are, a 3 point gap is nothing, and the confidence boost will surely see them improve.
WBA play us on Tuesday and Oxford on Saturday. Will they axe Ramsay in a desperate attempt to get something out of those games?1 -
The only thing that matters on Tuesday night is not losing.
A win would be lovely but is far more important for them than it is for us.6 -
We’re away on Tuesday so I don’t see it as a must win but a must not lose. A draw would be fine as it keeps the distance between us and them.Then we still have plenty of opportunities to pick up points at home1
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A draw means they would have to find a way to get 2W and 1D more (based on GD) than us in the remaining 12 games that’s still a very big ask2
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All season long my target has been 50. So 3 wins now would go along way Tuesday is a most not lose game1
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Well watching the Sheffield Derby we really should pick up 3 points when we play Wednesday.
No excuses permitted if we don't.3 -
As much as it's nerve racking to be in this position, it's also bloody exciting to too.
The dissecting of each result, the pouring over the league table and other teams fixtures.... It's proper football.
This league is such a long way from league 1, and I'm loving it!
It's the journey we've been wishing for, for many a long year, long may it continue.
I'm confident we will get the points needed to stay up. How we achieve that, I don't know.... Charlton have a habit of doing things the harder way at times, but a sea change has happened with us under this ownership and NJ, and we pull together to get what's required.
UTA!15 -
One more chalked off. At least 9 more needed in 12 games remaining.5
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Agreed UTA. Another good point today, still a good gap between us and the relegation placesozaddick said:As much as it's nerve racking to be in this position, it's also bloody exciting to too.
The dissecting of each result, the pouring over the league table and other teams fixtures.... It's proper football.
This league is such a long way from league 1, and I'm loving it!
It's the journey we've been wishing for, for many a long year, long may it continue.
I'm confident we will get the points needed to stay up. How we achieve that, I don't know.... Charlton have a habit of doing things the harder way at times, but a sea change has happened with us under this ownership and NJ, and we pull together to get what's required.
UTA!1 -
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I think you just saw them on a good day, as any championship side is capable of having. They've won 1 in 10 (the win being the game you saw).kinveachyaddick said:I was at Watford yesterday - they’re a decent side. I won’t be expecting anything from that one.The home games against lower top-half/mid table sides are the ones we can target IMO1 -
It almost seems like the whole division is on a naff or indifferent run of form at the moment. Is any team on a winning run atm ?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I think you just saw them on a good day, as any championship side is capable of having. They've won 1 in 10 (the win being the game you saw).kinveachyaddick said:I was at Watford yesterday - they’re a decent side. I won’t be expecting anything from that one.The home games against lower top-half/mid table sides are the ones we can target IMO0 -
letthegoodtimesroll said:
It almost seems like the whole division is on a naff or indifferent run of form at the moment. Is any team on a winning run atm ?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I think you just saw them on a good day, as any championship side is capable of having. They've won 1 in 10 (the win being the game you saw).kinveachyaddick said:I was at Watford yesterday - they’re a decent side. I won’t be expecting anything from that one.The home games against lower top-half/mid table sides are the ones we can target IMOJust looking at the last six games, Southampton and Birmingham are unbeaten and both have four wins out of six.Four teams have only lost one of their last six: Middlesbrough, Wrexham, Sheffield United and... Charlton.Norwich have won four out of their last six, but the other two results were losses.1 -
Slowly making are way to the 50 point mark. Without a ridiculous collapse by ourselves or title winning form by Leicester/WBA we should be fine.If we can get to 53 points then it would require some incredible form for us to finish in the bottom 3.
3 wins, 3 draws would have us comfortable.1 -
Given that Leicester and West Brom have won one league match between them in 2026, and that they would need to both completely turn around their fortunes I think nine more points this season for us will be enough. Maybe two wins and three draws.SouthWest_Addicks said:Slowly making are way to the 50 point mark. Without a ridiculous collapse by ourselves or title winning form by Leicester/WBA we should be fine.If we can get to 53 points then it would require some incredible form for us to finish in the bottom 3.
3 wins, 3 draws would have us comfortable.0 -
If we get 52 points then WBA and Leicester both need 6 wins in their last 12 games to overtake us. One of them could suddenly go on a good run, but there's very little chance both do.1
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Just posted on the Jones thread, but better here...
We have won 2 of the last 20 league games we have played against 11 men (so not including Leicester and Sheffield Utd), picking up 12 points. We beat Stoke and Oxford 1-0.
That run includes games v Blackburn, West Brom, Pompey x2 and Norwich amongst others.
I am really struggling to see where the 9-12 points we need from the last 12 games are going to come from.
We really are pinning all hopes on beating Wednesday and Oxford and then playing another team of 9 or 10 players aren't we?6 -
Athletico Charlton said:Just posted on the Jones thread, but better here...
We have won 2 of the last 20 league games we have played against 11 men (so not including Leicester and Sheffield Utd), picking up 12 points. We beat Stoke and Oxford 1-0.
That run includes games v Blackburn, West Brom, Pompey x2 and Norwich amongst others.
I am really struggling to see where the 9-12 points we need from the last 12 games are going to come from.
We really are pinning all hopes on beating Wednesday and Oxford and then playing another team of 9 or 10 players aren't we?
Since the end of the January window we’ve picked up 9 points from 6 games, should have lost yesterday but also should have dispatched QPR before 70 mins as well. We can talk about that ridiculously bad run beforehand but didn’t have Bell, Clarke, Chambers, Coady, Dykes, Sichenje and Fevrier for that run as well. We’ve got 1/2 a new starting XI lineup that wasn’t here for most those previous games. Last 6 games we’ve shown we can pick up points even when it doesn’t look we can hence what Jonesball is all about scrapping results3 -
What do we do then, sack NJ? We have a bottom three players budget and currently we are not bottom three, I think there’s very few managers who could pull this off. If we survive it will get easier and budgets will increase. We obviously lack quality, nearly every other team have more skilful players but we play to our strengths rather than weaknesses. West Brom could string a few passes together and created chances, more than us, yet they didn’t beat us and that resilience is the best chance we have of survival.Athletico Charlton said:Just posted on the Jones thread, but better here...
We have won 2 of the last 20 league games we have played against 11 men (so not including Leicester and Sheffield Utd), picking up 12 points. We beat Stoke and Oxford 1-0.
That run includes games v Blackburn, West Brom, Pompey x2 and Norwich amongst others.
I am really struggling to see where the 9-12 points we need from the last 12 games are going to come from.
We really are pinning all hopes on beating Wednesday and Oxford and then playing another team of 9 or 10 players aren't we?1 -
I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).3
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We’ve got 9 from 6, which averages at 69 points a season that gets you top half. Considering we have a bottom 3 side and budget that’s a good return. I’d argue we’re better against the good sides as well so even if the next 3 do look pretty tough we can always spring a surpriseAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).2 -
Before the Southampton match most of us would have assumed the trip to Middlesbrough would have been our toughest match of the season remaining. However, both Oxford and Leicester have drawn there since. No reason why we can’t get a result if those two teams can get a draw.We are in a really good position to stay up. It will probably be closer than we hoped, but very confident we will be a championship team next season.1
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Over the last 10 games (which goes back to early Jan so near enough 2 months) we are 15th in the form tableAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
https://thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=2&tab=tab-last109 -
The way we play away from home I wouldn't expect anything more than a draw away to those 2.Athletico Charlton said:Just posted on the Jones thread, but better here...
I am really struggling to see where the 9-12 points we need from the last 12 games are going to come from.
We really are pinning all hopes on beating Wednesday and Oxford and then playing another team of 9 or 10 players aren't we?0 -
I don’t think your analysis of our form is based in reality.Athletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).9 -
Not the only one to point it out but the problem with saying things like this is that you are just factually incorrect. Everyone is allowed an opinion, but this isn't a subjective issue.Athletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).3 -
Here's form tables for the last 5, 10 & 15 games
https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/form/matches:15/type:home-and-away/
https://footystats.org/england/championship/form-table1 -
Not sure what form table you are looking at but our recent form is:Athletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
Last 5 games: 18th (4 points more than the 3rd bottom team)
Last 10 games: 15th (7 points more than the 3rd bottom team)
Last 15 games: 18th (7 points more than the 3rd bottom team)
Unless you are cherry picking the run of games from Wrexham-Middlesbrough where we lost 5 in a row, or Norwich-Millwall (5 points in 7 games), our overall form across the season hasn't been bottom 2-3 at all.
The only thing you are correct on is we now have 3 tough games coming up against promotion chasing sides, but the positive aspect of that is that we do tend to get ok results against the better sides, largely because of how Jones sets us up.
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The fear now is there's some real unknowns added to the situation. Leicester, Blackburn and soon West Brom have new managers and are sides that no-one really would have expected to be this low down in the table so you would think have the potential to be turned around pretty effectively. When Oxford sacked Rowett it felt like they'd still be Oxford but some of the players those other teams have are a bit more capable of going on a run. Blackburn had a very timely upturn recently and Leicester have at least stopped the bleeding so far. They surely can't all blast the place up and they do have to play each other at various points still but there's definitely still twists and turns to come. The sooner we get that next win on the board the sooner we can at least start to worry a little bit less. Ideally we turn up in one of our next three games and steal a win before heading to Oxford and doing what we need to against them. I think the reality is going to be much rockier than that though4
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Last 20 Championship matches:
Won - 4
Drew - 6
Lost - 10
Points - 18
For - 17
Against - 32
So, that's 0.85 points per game or 10 points from our final 12 games which would give us 51 points and that should be just enough to keep us up. If we take the last six games then our record is better than that (9 points from 6 games) but we should also take into account that those games were against:
Leicester - 3 points (no wins in 9)
QPR- 1 point (2 wins in 9)
Stoke - 3 points (no win in 8)
Portsmouth - 0 points (4 wins in 9)
Southampton - 1 point (5 wins in 8)
WBA - 1 point (no wins in 12)
So we played two in form teams (1 point), one below form (1 point) and three sides totally out of form (7 points).
Last night was the biggest disappointment for me. This was the chance to give us that extra distance but 3 shots (on or off target) all game tells us all we need to know about our desire to win the match.
The two big games where six points should be an absolute given are those against Wednesday (1 win in 37 this season) and Oxford (2 wins in 17). We simply cannot afford a performance like last night where not losing was the clear priority.
The likes of Wrexham, Birmingham, Ipswich, Middlesbrough, Norwich, Hull, Bristol City and Swansea are all in form with most of them having something at stake. That leaves just Watford and Preston falling into the potentially "nothing to play for" bracket.
I'm certainly not saying that we won't pick up some points against those other sides but coming away with draws against Wednesday and Oxford would put so much more pressure on us. They are genuinely "free hit" games because they are going down anyway. In fact, I would rather we won one and lost one in going for it.
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