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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
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I keep trying to get Claude Ai to refine his predictions for the number of points needed to stay up. He keeps talking about 47-48 points; then I come on here and keep reading plausible arguments why it will be 50+ . I will wait until tomorrow and then try a refined prompt which pushes him towards considering the betting companies, who probably have the best history-based calculations.
In the meantime I am going to tell myself to be glad I'm not a Leicester fan.0 -
It might well be 47-48 points we don't know. 50 is usually given as the benchmark but i think people are saying 52 this season just to be absolutely sure, but also taking into consideration that every team is taking 4 or 6 points off Sheff Weds.PragueAddick said:I keep trying to get Claude Ai to refine his predictions for the number of points needed to stay up. He keeps talking about 47-48 points; then I come on here and keep reading plausible arguments why it will be 50+ . I will wait until tomorrow and then try a refined prompt which pushes him towards considering the betting companies, who probably have the best history-based calculations.
In the meantime I am going to tell myself to be glad I'm not a Leicester fan.
The truth is no one knows. Two years ago Birmingham went down with 50 points, last year Hull stayed up with 49.2 -
Many years back Millwall went down with 53 or 54 points in a 46 game seasonChris_from_Sidcup said:
It might well be 47-48 points we don't know. 50 is usually given as the benchmark but i think people are saying 52 this season just to be absolutely sure, but also taking into consideration that every team is taking 4 or 6 points off Sheff Weds.PragueAddick said:I keep trying to get Claude Ai to refine his predictions for the number of points needed to stay up. He keeps talking about 47-48 points; then I come on here and keep reading plausible arguments why it will be 50+ . I will wait until tomorrow and then try a refined prompt which pushes him towards considering the betting companies, who probably have the best history-based calculations.
In the meantime I am going to tell myself to be glad I'm not a Leicester fan.
The truth is no one knows. Two years ago Birmingham went down with 50 points, last year Hull stayed up with 49.0 -
Are we expecting Leicester to be deducted more points or kept as is?0
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West Brom are now on their 3rd manager of the season, they’ve picked up 7 points from their last 12 and have a really tough run of fixtures from their next and remaining 12 games.
Ideally we need Oxford to beat them on Saturday and for us to pick up a win, that would move us at least 10 clear of relegation with West Brom’s next 5 games after being against: Sheffield United, Southampton, Hull, Bristol City, and Wrexham. I can’t seem them picking up enough points.
That is just looking at solely West Brom.
We have to of course, just focus on ourselves, and I think we will pick up enough points to be fine. Stand by that we will likely get another 3 or 4 wins by the end of the season. Just performances like last night and at home to Portsmouth cannot continue.
Survive this season and we need a huge uplift in quality in the summer.7 -
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough4 -
Oxford do still have to play West Brom, Blackburn, us and Sheff Weds all at home, so they'll at least be thinking they have a chance. I don't think they will catch us, but i wouldn't write them off as 100% down yet.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
Their game v West brom this weekend is an absolute must win though, win that and the gap is then down to 3 points.0 -
For Oxford to overtake us they need 4 more wins than us in the remaining 12 games.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Oxford do still have to play West Brom, Blackburn, us and Sheff Weds all at home, so they'll at least be thinking they have a chance. I don't think they will catch us, but i wouldn't write them off as 100% down yet.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
Their game v West brom this weekend is an absolute must win though, win that and the gap is then down to 3 points.Let’s say we pick up 2 wins at an absolute minimum, 1 at Wednesday 1 elsewhere (lot of games).That means Oxford would need to win 6 games in 12 at a minimum , they’ve only won 6 in 33 beforehand they would need to go on top 4 form till the end of the year.We are no doubt scrapping to avoid that 3rd spot but there is no chance Oxford catch us. Them actuslly beating West Brom and Blackburn would be in our best interest9 -
Hence why i said "I don't think they will catch us, but i wouldn't write them off as 100% down yet."Crispywood said:
For Oxford to overtake us they need 4 more wins than us in the remaining 12 games.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Oxford do still have to play West Brom, Blackburn, us and Sheff Weds all at home, so they'll at least be thinking they have a chance. I don't think they will catch us, but i wouldn't write them off as 100% down yet.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
Their game v West brom this weekend is an absolute must win though, win that and the gap is then down to 3 points.Let’s say we pick up 2 wins at an absolute minimum, 1 at Wednesday 1 elsewhere (lot of games).That means Oxford would need to win 6 games in 12 at a minimum , they’ve only won 6 in 33 beforehand they would need to go on top 4 form till the end of the year.We are no doubt scrapping to avoid that 3rd spot but there is no chance Oxford catch us. Them actuslly beating West Brom and Blackburn would be in our best interest0 -
0.82 ppg in our last 22 games is 38 points over a season.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
0.60 ppg in our last 20 games against 11 men is 28 points over a season
Both suggest bottom 2 form to me. That's our form since 8th November (ie for months).
I am happy to have a £20 bet for the Community Trust that we don't make 55 points, I would be even more happy if you end up winning it and I am the one who pays up.2 -
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I get you are trying to prove a point, but I don't understand why you and others keep separating the Leicester and Sheffield United wins as if they don't count.
Actions on football pitches have consequences. Not every team that goes down to 10 (or 9) men simply rolls over and admits defeat. You still have to win the game.
By the way 55 points would've been enough for 16th last year and 19th the year before that. So that feels like an unfair bet to whoever takes it on.14 -
I do find the airbrushing of the Leicester and Sheffield United games from the records, just straight up silly, didn't realise you didn't get points for those games.9
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Good!LenGlover said:
Many years back Millwall went down with 53 or 54 points in a 46 game seasonChris_from_Sidcup said:
It might well be 47-48 points we don't know. 50 is usually given as the benchmark but i think people are saying 52 this season just to be absolutely sure, but also taking into consideration that every team is taking 4 or 6 points off Sheff Weds.PragueAddick said:I keep trying to get Claude Ai to refine his predictions for the number of points needed to stay up. He keeps talking about 47-48 points; then I come on here and keep reading plausible arguments why it will be 50+ . I will wait until tomorrow and then try a refined prompt which pushes him towards considering the betting companies, who probably have the best history-based calculations.
In the meantime I am going to tell myself to be glad I'm not a Leicester fan.
The truth is no one knows. Two years ago Birmingham went down with 50 points, last year Hull stayed up with 49.5 -
It's amazing the way people will attempt to warp reality in order to more effectively be able to criticise the football team they support. It's like learning complex yoga just to get better at punching yourself in the dick17
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I take issue with the statement that we have had bottom 2 form for "months" because it is factually incorrect. Our form in January and February has NOT been bottom two by any stretch of the imagination. 8 points in Jan and 6 so far in Feb. In fact, we have earned more points than West Brom and Leicester COMBINED in Jan and Feb
W Brom picked up 2 points in Jan and 3 so far in feb
Leicester 6 in Jan and 2 so far in Feb
Oxford - 5 in Jan 2 so far in Feb
Sheff W 0 in both
Pompy? 8 in Jan 6 in Feb
Stoke 8 in Jan and 5 in Feb
Blackburn only picked up 2 points in Jan. Although granted they have 9 in Feb
Watford 5 in Jan 5 in Feb
QPR? 8 in Jan 4 in Feb
Preston 7 in Jan 5 in Feb
November with that 5 game run of defeats we were certainly bottom of the form table, December not too much better (bottom 3 or 4 i'd say without deep diving, I know Blackburn certainly picked up less than us that month with only 2 draws)
Apart from the abomination of November/December when the injuries really hit us we have been solidly lower mid-table or higher in the form table every other month this season for points gained, which funnily enough just about reflects our league position.
Edit to add, 4 of 9 of the above have played Sheff W in the last 2 months where we have not as well, which with all due respect to them is as much of a gimme 3 points as you can get in this league - probably on a par with playing against 9/10 men in terms of advantage i'd say.1 -
Coming a bit late to this thread and though I've had a flick through, maybe it's been said and/or the picture has changed, but on other threads people seem to talk about 51/52(ish) pretty standardly as though that's the accepted benchmark. I'm not clear why?
The limited data I'm considering is:
- Louis Mendez's graph is calculated using the average over the past 15 (I think) years and has the benchmark at 44
- current standings have 22nd (Leicester) on exactly 1 PPG, which would mean beating 46 points is safety. Appreciate that includes a deduction, but West Brom one place above them are basically the same (1.03 PPG = 47 points, so 48 needed for safety).
Unless there is a reason why teams at the bottom are going to hit better form for the run in, which seems unlikely particularly for West Brom who have tough fixtures, the PPG strikes me as a very good metric at this stage. It also should take into account some of the abnormalities this year.
On that, clearly teams at the bottom will take more off Sheff Weds than in a normal season, but it's not a six point difference (SW wouldn't do the double over every relegation candidate normally), so it looks to me that the 3-4 point difference is reflected in the PPG target of 47/48 vs the average 44.
Also need to account for the other two promoted teams picking up far more points than they usually would, which should balance things to a degree.
In summary, 47/48 points feels much more realistic to me than 51/52. Not saying I want to aim for it, but if I had to bet that's where I'd put the over under. Can those who think it will be more help me understand why?5 -
Instead of removing the Sheffield United and Leicester results, I have decided to remove the run of five losses in a row.Those results didn’t count because Onel Hernandez was playing wing back, Stoke scored multiple ridiculous goals that they wouldn’t have otherwise and Amari’i Bell was injured.
Now we have 41 points from 29 games in late January, we’re 14th in the league and our form across the entire season reads 10-11-8:
WDLLDWWDLWWDDWDWLLDDWLLWDWLDD10 -
1.5 PPG in our last 6 games is 69 points over a season. Good enough for a play off place last season.Athletico Charlton said:
0.82 ppg in our last 22 games is 38 points over a season.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
0.60 ppg in our last 20 games against 11 men is 28 points over a season
Both suggest bottom 2 form to me. That's our form since 8th November (ie for months).
I am happy to have a £20 bet for the Community Trust that we don't make 55 points, I would be even more happy if you end up winning it and I am the one who pays up.
It's fun when you cherry pick certain blocks of games isn't it?1 -
If they do win both games, that's 3 points each that Blackburn and West Brom don't get, so that leaves them further behind both us and maybe Portsmouth as well depending on their results, so it's not really the end of the world. If the last relegation spot switches hands a few times it only matters if it's us who are taking it.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Oxford do still have to play West Brom, Blackburn, us and Sheff Weds all at home, so they'll at least be thinking they have a chance. I don't think they will catch us, but i wouldn't write them off as 100% down yet.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
Their game v West brom this weekend is an absolute must win though, win that and the gap is then down to 3 points.
Any single one of the teams below us hitting good form is not catastrophic, it's if lots of them ALL start hitting form that we are in real immediate trouble, but luckily they all play each other too so that helps us out.
Keep on grinding out points as they come is all we can do, let the chasing pack sort themselves out.1 -
Crispywood said:
For Oxford to overtake us they need 4 more wins than us in the remaining 12 games.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Oxford do still have to play West Brom, Blackburn, us and Sheff Weds all at home, so they'll at least be thinking they have a chance. I don't think they will catch us, but i wouldn't write them off as 100% down yet.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
Their game v West brom this weekend is an absolute must win though, win that and the gap is then down to 3 points.Let’s say we pick up 2 wins at an absolute minimum, 1 at Wednesday 1 elsewhere (lot of games).That means Oxford would need to win 6 games in 12 at a minimum , they’ve only won 6 in 33 beforehand they would need to go on top 4 form till the end of the year.We are no doubt scrapping to avoid that 3rd spot but there is no chance Oxford catch us. Them actuslly beating West Brom and Blackburn would be in our best interest
Oxford really shouldn't be catching Charlton but Blackburn, WBA and Leicester should be aware that Barnsley looked dead and buried yet had a remarkable last few games in the mini 9 game matches at the end of the 19/20 COVID season including winning at Brentford which meant the bees didn't get auto's but the Tykes stayed up and didn't join bottom team Hull - 23rd place Wigan and the team that finished in 22nd place 🤦🏻♂️😱☹️2 -
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Last season two teams got 100 points, with Sheffield United in 3rd getting 90, while the bottom club Cardiff got 44.
This season on ppg, Coventry would finish on 92, Boro 85, and Ipswich 82 so the teams at the top aren't as good. Plus the team at the bottom is way worse - on 11 before deductions and unlikely to get many more.
So on average everyone between 4th and 23rd will get more points than their equivalent last season. Last season 50 was required to stay up, and it could be higher this season.
Points deductions do affect this though.4 -
killerandflash said:Last season two teams got 100 points, with Sheffield United in 3rd getting 90, while the bottom club Cardiff got 44.
This season on ppg, Coventry would finish on 92, Boro 85, and Ipswich 82 so the teams at the top aren't as good. Plus the team at the bottom is way worse - on 11 before deductions and unlikely to get many more.
So on average everyone between 4th and 23rd will get more points than their equivalent last season. Last season 50 was required to stay up, and it could be higher this season.
Points deductions do affect this though.
Interesting facts from last season and the points deductions have certainly impacted the championship this season at the bottom.
Just correct you on one thing: Hull City stayed up on 49 points as they were -10 to Luton's -24 also on 49 points.
I had felt since August we would finish 17th with around 53 points and that is still a possibility 🤔0 -
All the time the play offs are still mathematically possible I'm looking up not down.4
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We're expecting Leicester to have some/all of their points suspended at least while they are filibustering with appeal after appeal. Reduction in points deduction this season with a stern finger wagging that "those points will be taken away again later if their books aren't more stylishly cooked next season, so there!"JamesU2002 said:Are we expecting Leicester to be deducted more points or kept as is?
Leicester is precisely the sort and scale of club EFL wants in its top division for appearances sake and their relegation risk will be mitigated, in a flurry of wagging fingers and no sincere adherence to the rules.1 -
The Premier League want blood, and the decision is made by an independent body, so I expect Leicester to get properly smashed at the appeal6
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It won't do much good for their chances of winning the appeal if they're all pissed.Rothko said:The Premier League want blood, and the decision is made by an independent body, so I expect Leicester to get properly smashed at the appeal6 -
Billy_Mix said:
We're expecting Leicester to have some/all of their points suspended at least while they are filibustering with appeal after appeal. Reduction in points deduction this season with a stern finger wagging that "those points will be taken away again later if their books aren't more stylishly cooked next season, so there!"JamesU2002 said:Are we expecting Leicester to be deducted more points or kept as is?
Leicester is precisely the sort and scale of club EFL wants in its top division for appearances sake and their relegation risk will be mitigated, in a flurry of wagging fingers and no sincere adherence to the rules.It was the EFL that gave Leicester a 6 point deduction, it's the FAPL who are appealing the leniency of that punishment as well as Leicester appealing the 6 points (good luck with that). Leicester will not get less than the 6 points after the appeals and quite possibly they will get more.Don't forget, the EFL are not a governing body, they are a trade organisation of the 72 EFL clubs. The other 71 clubs will not want to see proven cheats get away with anything, especially as the vast majority of those 71 clubs adhere to FFP conditions even if some of the richer clubs don't like them.1 -
The league table isn’t over the last 22 games or games against 11 men. From the 34 games we’ve played, we are top of the bottom 7. We have more points than 6 other teams with one already relegated. Four teams need to better our points per game ratio for the rest of the season for us to get relegated.Athletico Charlton said:
0.82 ppg in our last 22 games is 38 points over a season.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
0.60 ppg in our last 20 games against 11 men is 28 points over a season
Both suggest bottom 2 form to me. That's our form since 8th November (ie for months).
I am happy to have a £20 bet for the Community Trust that we don't make 55 points, I would be even more happy if you end up winning it and I am the one who pays up.
we are in a good place and I’m confident we will stay up. Unfortunately I don’t bet anymore as I’ve seen what betting can do to people. But if we don’t get 55 points, I will happily donate to either the upbeats or the community trust0 -
killerandflash said:Last season two teams got 100 points, with Sheffield United in 3rd getting 90, while the bottom club Cardiff got 44.
This season on ppg, Coventry would finish on 92, Boro 85, and Ipswich 82 so the teams at the top aren't as good. Plus the team at the bottom is way worse - on 11 before deductions and unlikely to get many more.
So on average everyone between 4th and 23rd will get more points than their equivalent last season. Last season 50 was required to stay up, and it could be higher this season.
Points deductions do affect this though.
I think this is a good way to look at the situation. No team is running away with things at the top, which suggests that there are more points to go round the other teams. Similarly, Sheff Wed's ineptitude adds to that picture.
However ... we currently have a block of 14 teams separated by a mere 12 points (Southampton on 50 down to Blackburn on 38).
So, very surprisingly, current PPG suggests that 47/48 will be enough. I'm wondering if this apparent contradiction is explained by the fact that there may have been more draws than normal this season. There are a lot of very similar teams.
Then, as long as there are three teams who fall just a little bit short, we'll be OK. Oxford at Stoke last night was a good example of that. Sadly, us at Portsmouth and Blackburn would also fit that pattern.
The Curbishley Rule is crucial here ... if our wins and draws are few and far between, we have to ensure that they come against other relegation candidates. Last night's salvaged point was very important.1 -
Todds_right_hook said:
The league table isn’t over the last 22 games or games against 11 men. From the 34 games we’ve played, we are top of the bottom 7. We have more points than 6 other teams with one already relegated. Four teams need to better our points per game ratio for the rest of the season for us to get relegated.Athletico Charlton said:
0.82 ppg in our last 22 games is 38 points over a season.Todds_right_hook said:
Our form has not been bottom 2 for months. We had a bad run but always seem to pick up points. We have some difficult games and some winnable games. Oxford need to win 4 more games than us for the remainder of the season just to catch us, if we win one, they will need to win 5. That will be very difficult for them. Leicester need to gain 0.5 points a game on us. We are also above West Brom, Blackburn and Portsmouth. We will be fine. 21st will still be a good season for usAthletico Charlton said:I don't know what we do and you are right that we are not bottom 3. But our form for months has been bottom 2, let alone 3. We also have a pretty tough run in imo. The games we have just played needed a bigger points return as I don't see any from Wrexham, Birmingham and Boro (hope to be proved wrong straight away on Saturday!).
edit. Our points per game ratio is 1.2 points a game. That means Leicester need 1.7 points a game. We re on target for 55 points which will be more than enough
0.60 ppg in our last 20 games against 11 men is 28 points over a season
Both suggest bottom 2 form to me. That's our form since 8th November (ie for months).
I am happy to have a £20 bet for the Community Trust that we don't make 55 points, I would be even more happy if you end up winning it and I am the one who pays up.
we are in a good place and I’m confident we will stay up. Unfortunately I don’t bet anymore as I’ve seen what betting can do to people. But if we don’t get 55 points, I will happily donate to either the upbeats or the community trust
Cool, if we do get to 55 points I will donate £20 to each of the upbeats and Trust and we won't call it a bet. I will also be very happy we have stayed up.3
