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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
Comments
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It could be interesting though, if WBA started the final day of the season needing a win to give themselves a chance of staying up, as the pressure will be enormous.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
West brom don't play them until the last day though and by then it might be too late.paulsturgess said:
Oxford Leicester and West Brom do all have Wednesday to play (as do we). Which is another worry factor for Bburn, who don’t.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'd imagine 50 will still be enough though.Callumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
West brom have won 3 of their last 20 games. They haven't won at all in 2026, and haven't won away since October.
Leicester have won 4 of their last 20 games. They've got just 1 win in 2026 (against West Brom) and haven't won away since early December.
To reach 50 points:
West Brom need to win 4, draw 2.
Leicester need to win 5.
There's only 10 games left and these teams need to suddenly find play off form and pick up more wins in 10 games than they have in their last 20. On top of that there is Oxford, who also need to win 5 of their last 10 to reach 50 points.
1 of them might get to 50 points, there's no way they all will.
Looking at the final day fixtures, Oxford are away to Millwall, who could be fighting for automatic promotion, or resting players for the playoffs, while Blackburn are at home to Leicester.0 -
This.paulsturgess said:
Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we averageCallumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in
we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up
I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this point4 -
PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' neededPeaksAndValleys said:
This.paulsturgess said:
Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we averageCallumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in
we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up
I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this point0 -
I think people are just accustomed to bad things happening which is understandable after the fortunes of the club over the past couple of decades.PeaksAndValleys said:
PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' neededPeaksAndValleys said:
This.paulsturgess said:
Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we averageCallumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in
we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up
I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this pointBut anyone objective looking at the Championship table would conclude that Charlton are safe.2 -
Most football ‘analyst’ don’t even have us in the mix for relegation. Now you gonna believe us. The Reds are staying up.se9addick said:
I think people are just accustomed to bad things happening which is understandable after the fortunes of the club over the past couple of decades.PeaksAndValleys said:
PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' neededPeaksAndValleys said:
This.paulsturgess said:
Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we averageCallumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in
we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up
I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this pointBut anyone objective looking at the Championship table would conclude that Charlton are safe.4 -
after winning the first two games back from Covid, we looked near enough safe and yet managed to get relegated on the last day with what felt like an unimaginable scenario of Barnsley winning at Brentford with the last kick of the gamese9addick said:
I think people are just accustomed to bad things happening which is understandable after the fortunes of the club over the past couple of decades.PeaksAndValleys said:
PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' neededPeaksAndValleys said:
This.paulsturgess said:
Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we averageCallumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in
we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up
I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this pointBut anyone objective looking at the Championship table would conclude that Charlton are safe.
I will never fully get over how painful that day was so the default remains very much to prepare for and indeed expect the worst, regardless of what logic and maths might say!8 -
Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3
Bristol C - 3
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference28 -
Its also an abnormal season, points wise we are tracking with the 12/13 side that ended up 9th, bit were I think 13th at this point1
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That boat gif of yours is going to working overtime in the next couple of months.ForeverAddickted said:Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3
Bristol C - 3
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference6 -
Really according to above we're getting -30 points and relegated!!ForeverAddickted said:Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3
Bristol C - 3
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference5 -
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I agree with this. My earlier post was basically saying for us to get relegated now we would need less than a point per game (another 5 game losing streak?) while two of Oxford, Leicester and West Brom also need to get nearly two points per game.se9addick said:
I think people are just accustomed to bad things happening which is understandable after the fortunes of the club over the past couple of decades.PeaksAndValleys said:
PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' neededPeaksAndValleys said:
This.paulsturgess said:
Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we averageCallumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in
we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up
I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this pointBut anyone objective looking at the Championship table would conclude that Charlton are safe.
It’s very unlikely and there’s a reason we’re now 20/1+ to go down but that’s still mathematically a ~4-5% chance. As soon as we get over and above 50 I suspect it’ll be near 0.0 -
Mid table teams (like Birmingham) are the ones I would see us most likely to pick up a couple of wins.
Preston, Bristol City, Watford, etc.
After Boro, i think we could aim for 4 draws from the other away games.
That puts us on 48 and nearly there anyway
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Just beat Oxford.4
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We won’t beat Oxford, I’m so sure of that!valleynick66 said:Just beat Oxford.2 -
Maybe we will beat middlesborough instead, 9 wins and a draw may just scrape us into 6th2
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Think we’re already safe but ideally want to get there as quick as possible. Would be nice to see us already thinking about next season in mind and giving the likes of JRC, Kelman, Fullah more games and maybe some of the better U21’s a chance to think about where we want to go next year.4
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leicester and west brom would need to win a minimum of 3 games to drag us into it,
west brom haven’t won this year
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If you are referring to 19/20, after 36 games (same as now) we had 5 less points than this season and 1 position worse off.twiggyaddick said:Its also an abnormal season, points wise we are tracking with the 12/13 side that ended up 9th, bit were I think 13th at this pointOur last 10 games were LWWDLLLDDL
Even if we only do the same as 19/20 in the final 10 games we will end up on 53 pts and safe.
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According to Opta stats we have a 2.32% chance of getting relegated which is over 40/1 against. We’re not safe yet but, at the same time, cause for optimism.3
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Interesting that in the last 10 games us, Oxford, Portsmouth, Blackburn all have very similar records:
https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/championship/form-guide/ten
It's WBA and Leicester that really need to turn things around, everyone else is picking up enough points to be ok.0 -
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West Brom next 3 games before the international break:
Southampton home, Hull home, Bristol City away.
Leicester next 3 games:
Bristol City home, QPR home, Watford away.
Oxford next 3 games:
Blackburn home, Charlton home, Southampton away.
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Well taking our form over the last run of 1 game we are averaging 3 PPG. Title winning form
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Psychologically beating Oxford is worth even more points than the ‘6’ it mathematically is of course.Getting that gap and destroying their belief gives so much more comfort.6
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When I saw that Louis Mendez chap post on X about Charlton only losing 2 games in the last 8 I thought it would be typical Charlton to get us all fretting about trying to escape relegation for months on end and go out and win all the remaining games to sneak into the playoffs at the last gasp. No doubt they’ll put paid to that stupid idea on Wednesday night. Then again, we may have only scored 1 goal in the last two games but we’ve taken the game to the opposition both times so there is a changing mentality coming to the fore…ForeverAddickted said:Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3
Bristol C - 3
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference1 -
.0
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We almost did that in the first Powell Championship season. We had a really tough start and that 5-4 Cardiff game felt like it could have been the end for him if we'd lost. That's when SISS was born because we were so desperate. We went on a good run after that and then another really bad one. I remember the Leicester and Huddersfield away games being absolutely huge wins and feeling pretty safe after that. We then did our traditional Millwall loss and went on to go unbeaten in our last 8, winning 5. In the end we were 3 points off the Play-Offs after only really feeling safe, weirdly, on this day that year. That win took us to 3 points more than we have now, though with one more game played and the highest relegation side on 39 rather than 35. Though looking at it Peterborough managed to get relegated on 54 points so maybe don't look at it too much..letthegoodtimesroll said:
When I saw that Louis Mendez chap post on X about Charlton only losing 2 games in the last 8 I thought it would be typical Charlton to get us all fretting about trying to escape relegation for months on end and go out and win all the remaining games to sneak into the playoffs at the last gasp. No doubt they’ll put paid to that stupid idea on Wednesday night. Then again, we may have only scored 1 goal in the last two games but we’ve taken the game to the opposition both times so there is a changing mentality coming to the fore…ForeverAddickted said:Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3
Bristol C - 3
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference2 -
Looking at the table for that season, it was incredibly bunched. Just 7 points between Derby in 10th and Posh in 22nd. THREE points between Derby in 10th and Huddersfield in 19thGarrymanilow said:
We almost did that in the first Powell Championship season. We had a really tough start and that 5-4 Cardiff game felt like it could have been the end for him if we'd lost. That's when SISS was born because we were so desperate. We went on a good run after that and then another really bad one. I remember the Leicester and Huddersfield away games being absolutely huge wins and feeling pretty safe after that. We then did our traditional Millwall loss and went on to go unbeaten in our last 8, winning 5. In the end we were 3 points off the Play-Offs after only really feeling safe, weirdly, on this day that year. That win took us to 3 points more than we have now, though with one more game played and the highest relegation side on 39 rather than 35. Though looking at it Peterborough managed to get relegated on 54 points so maybe don't look at it too much..letthegoodtimesroll said:
When I saw that Louis Mendez chap post on X about Charlton only losing 2 games in the last 8 I thought it would be typical Charlton to get us all fretting about trying to escape relegation for months on end and go out and win all the remaining games to sneak into the playoffs at the last gasp. No doubt they’ll put paid to that stupid idea on Wednesday night. Then again, we may have only scored 1 goal in the last two games but we’ve taken the game to the opposition both times so there is a changing mentality coming to the fore…ForeverAddickted said:Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3
Bristol C - 3
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference
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And we had the same points total after the same amount of games as we do now....killerandflash said:
Looking at the table for that season, it was incredibly bunched. Just 7 points between Derby in 10th and Posh in 22nd. THREE points between Derby in 10th and Huddersfield in 19thGarrymanilow said:
We almost did that in the first Powell Championship season. We had a really tough start and that 5-4 Cardiff game felt like it could have been the end for him if we'd lost. That's when SISS was born because we were so desperate. We went on a good run after that and then another really bad one. I remember the Leicester and Huddersfield away games being absolutely huge wins and feeling pretty safe after that. We then did our traditional Millwall loss and went on to go unbeaten in our last 8, winning 5. In the end we were 3 points off the Play-Offs after only really feeling safe, weirdly, on this day that year. That win took us to 3 points more than we have now, though with one more game played and the highest relegation side on 39 rather than 35. Though looking at it Peterborough managed to get relegated on 54 points so maybe don't look at it too much..letthegoodtimesroll said:
When I saw that Louis Mendez chap post on X about Charlton only losing 2 games in the last 8 I thought it would be typical Charlton to get us all fretting about trying to escape relegation for months on end and go out and win all the remaining games to sneak into the playoffs at the last gasp. No doubt they’ll put paid to that stupid idea on Wednesday night. Then again, we may have only scored 1 goal in the last two games but we’ve taken the game to the opposition both times so there is a changing mentality coming to the fore…ForeverAddickted said:Boro - 3
Oxford - 3
Norwich - 3
Bristol C - 3
Watford - 3
Preston - 3
Sheffield Wed - 3
Ipswich - 3
Hull - 3
Swansea - 3
Charlton storm into second place on the final day, pipping Millwall on Goal Difference0 -
Sheffield Wednesday getting so few points skews the points needed to stay up. It will be on the high end so suspect we will need 51-52 to be safePeaksAndValleys said:
PPG continues to track at one a game ie 47 needed to avoid the drop. If that holds up then three draws get us there, but people are talking about 'two or three wins and a few draws' neededPeaksAndValleys said:
This.paulsturgess said:
Another way of looking at it is that at least 2 teams below us (of Leicester Oxford West Brom) would need to both average 1 point per game more than us for the remainder of the season which would’ve a monumental turnaround for teams that are struggling to average 1 point per game in total in recent months, let alone 1 point more per game than we averageCallumcafc said:Would bring my target down if Oxford hadn’t just won a couple in a row bringing themselves back into the picture.
Until then, I’m sticking on 52 as the number to guarantee no issues. At that point, multiple teams below us would need playoff chasing form to get above that mark.
8 points from 10 needed:
3 wins, 7 defeats
2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats
1 win, 5 draws, 4 defeats
8 draws, 2 defeats
add to that Blackburn being slightly closer but having a very very tough run in
we would now have to be spectacularly dreadful to mess this up
I do get that it's an integral part of being a Charlton fan to fear the worst, and clearly it's not over until it's over, but equally I think people are being very pessimistic / just not being realistic about where we are now. Nine points clear with ten games to go, with multiple teams under us all of which are down there for a reason. We almost have to lose every game going forward to get relegated at this point0
