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Grand National 2026
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When are you planning to settle on your final selections, Peanuts?0
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First need to know whether High Class Hero and/or Now Is The Hour are running - both still possibles for Fairyhouse.WHAddick said:When are you planning to settle on your final selections, Peanuts?
Then the weather is a factor for several (most obviously Final Orders and Top Of The Bill, who both need a sound surface).
Only these 2 definites at the moment (each way):
I Am Maximus 8/1
Champ Kiely 80/1
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Ok thanks. Will keep following the thread!1
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L'Homme Presse out to 500/1 on Betfair2
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We were once playing Grimsby away and I happened to be sitting in front of Kenny Dalglish, who was looking at one of our players (I forget whom).Starinnaddick said:L'Homme Presse out to 500/1 on Betfair
Carl Leaburn was up-front and someone asked him if he was there to watch big Carl, noting that he could perhaps be got quite cheaply.
There's was a moment's silence before Kenny, not exactly known for his loquaciousness, mumbled the immortal words ........... "no price".
I don't know why that has sprung into my head but hey ho.2 -
Apparently he's lame.Starinnaddick said:L'Homme Presse out to 500/1 on Betfair
So, Top Of The Bill is IN
but he does want a decent surface.2 -
So Confirmations for Monday's Irish GN see both High Class Hero and Now Is The Hour on my short list scratched.
Seemingly Aintree bound
Now all down to the weather as to the final selections.
Alas, Holloway Queen also taken out.
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Hi Peanuts, love the thread every year.
Can I ask for your view on Now Is The Hour after it seems Aintree is confirmed? Career best LTO, appears to go on any ground, should stay the trip and Gavin Cromwell is a shrewd trainer. He's technically a 3rd season chaser but his first season was a single run in the March and so arguably has a profile more akin to a second season novice. Would he figure higher on the list if you treated him as a second season chaser?1 -
Cheers @AdamGSAdamGS said:Hi Peanuts, love the thread every year.
Can I ask for your view on Now Is The Hour after it seems Aintree is confirmed? Career best LTO, appears to go on any ground, should stay the trip and Gavin Cromwell is a shrewd trainer. He's technically a 3rd season chaser but his first season was a single run in the March and so arguably has a profile more akin to a second season novice. Would he figure higher on the list if you treated him as a second season chaser?
Glad you’re enjoying it.
Good question and, in short, I’m very positive about NITH and was waiting myself to see if he’d get the OK for Aintree. Been flashing away brightly on my model’s radar screen even before the Thyestes, purely based on his pedigree, which is strong (joint 4th strongest among likely runners).
The point you make about his late start is a good one, he’s ground versatile and will definitely be in my e/w team.
I’m a bit tied up at the moment but am going to do a write up on all my model’s top picks and will make him the first one later this afternoon.
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So, bar some last minute scratchings, only the weather will alter the composition of my team for Saturday week's GN.
With L'Homme Presse's defection, there are none outside the current top 34 that my model rates as a potential frame-maker.
As there are some of my model's top selections who strongly prefer certain going, and as that may not be known until later next week, possibly even race-day (Accuweather now suggesting 11mm of rain on the day itself), I'll list 2 teams now (those in bold may have a going preference but can perform regardless). I've backed all of these but have some nifty footwork to do that would make Claus Jensen proud to cash out the going-based discards nearer the day.
On Good-to-Soft (the quickest that Aintree provides):
Best Winning Potential:- I AM MAXIMUS
- HIGH CLASS HERO
- CHAMP KIELY
- GORGEOUS TOM *
- TOP OF THE BILL
- FINAL ORDERS
- NOW IS THE HOUR *
- SPANISH HARLEM
On Soft or Heavy:
Best Winning Potential:- I AM MAXIMUS (nap)
- CHAMP KIELY
- NOW IS THE HOUR *
- ANSWER TO KAYF *
- SPANISH HARLEM
- MR VANGO
Biggest Threat as Potential Winner:- Jagwar
- Grangeclare West
- Marble Sands
- Banbridge (GS only)
- Twig (ideally Soft side of GS)
Write-Ups coming .......1 -
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AdamGS said:Hi Peanuts, love the thread every year.
Can I ask for your view on Now Is The Hour after it seems Aintree is confirmed? Career best LTO, appears to go on any ground, should stay the trip and Gavin Cromwell is a shrewd trainer. He's technically a 3rd season chaser but his first season was a single run in the March and so arguably has a profile more akin to a second season novice. Would he figure higher on the list if you treated him as a second season chaser?So write ups on my model's top selections, first:
NOW IS THE HOUR (33/1) - Strong Place (borderline win) Potential, regardless of Going
CV
- 9 yo with 11 chases to date, he was still technically still a novice this season and so was eligible to run in the Brown Advisory Novice Grade 1 (a terrific 6L 5th off his GNOR149) at Cheltenham, having run really well in the 30f NH Novice Chase at the 2025 Festival
- it's that run a year ago, over 30f, that is a key plank of his GN-potential CV as, though giving Haiti Couleurs 4lbs, he was his closest and most threatening challenger when HC cut across him at the 2nd last and he fell (distracted by HC it looked to me) - otherwise might have been a close 2nd. That was on quick ground, so I've never been worried about going for him. NITH will be 21lbs better off with HC in the GN.
- he disappointed in the Irish GN a month later (possibly too soon) and again over 30f in the Porterstown when clattering the 2nd last fence - beaten at the time, both at Fairyhouse and on Soft ground - but the Cromwell yard has had a very up and down this season, which might account for the latter.
- his well-being and going-versatility were confirmed when he won the Thyestes in January. Though leader Spanish Harlem URd at the last, prompting some to call NITH a fortunate winner, he finished like a train on testing ground over 25f and might well have nicked it anyway.
- his 5th in the recent 25f Brown Advisory is also noteworthy in that only he and Oscars Brother (4th) ran the final furlong (up the Hill) quicker than the penultimate furlong - i.e. they were both accelerating and closing on the leaders at the line. Again on quick ground, that run set a new career-best RPR (i.e. after the GN weights were allotted) 6lbs above his GNOR (not a spectacular but a very healthy premium). Finishing a Neck behind him, he’ll be 6lbs better off with Oscar’s Brother in the GN.
Pedigree (joint 4th strongest for a GN, by my model's assessment):
- sire Westerner was x5 G1 winner (x3 at 2.5m) and, significantly, is descended from Northern Dancer, via Danehill (12/12 GN winners were ND descendants from 58% of runners - Corach Rambler also via Danehill)
Westerner has to date sired 3 horses to run in at least 1 GN, including 2016 4th Gilgamboa and Mr Incredible who, despite his nutty ways, was close 2nd in a 34f Midlands National under 12 stone. Westerner also sired Midlands National winner Truckers Lodge, so he's a proven sire of NH stayers.
- his damsires present a star-studded array of quality G1 winners and stallions: DS1~5 Azamour, Darshaan (to whom NITH is strongly linebred - 5th and 3rd Gens), The Minstrel, Sheshoon and Crepello were all G1 winners at 10~20f and produced as sire and/or damsire G1 winners at 12~20f
- the dams in his maternal family also include several G1 winners at 8~12f, the most recent being his maternal Grandmother Key Change - a Yorkshire Oaks winner and Irish St Leger near-misser - and, via his 4th Dam, NITH is related to St Leger winner Milan and Irish & Epsom Derby winner Kahyasi
- he shares his mtDNA B1a with Tiger Roll and GN5th and Midlands National winner Goonyella, though isn't related to either and that mtDNA forms too small a GN sample size from which to draw any strong conclusions
Overall, it's the quality of his damside, in combo with the staying credentials of his sire, that is the biggest contributor to the model's rating of him as Strong Place Potential.
He wouldn't be much of an outlier as a Winner, given his novice status for much of this season. One issue, given that he'll have 1 or 2 stablemates running is choice of jockey - particularly since Keith Donaghue can't do the weight on any of them and no claims are allowed in the GN.
We'll have to wait to see who pilots the Cromwell trio, 2 of which could be in my team.1 -
A result today to please backers of Johnnywho and Jagwar.
4th in the Ultima, Blow Your Wad, giving 18lbs+ to the field, won a modest-quality 20f handicap chase at Chepstow to frank the form (1 win from 1).
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Hi Peanuts
Many thanks on your posts on the GN, have you got any views on Haiti Couleurs?
Many thanks1 -
Cheers @franksav63franksav63 said:Hi Peanuts
Many thanks on your posts on the GN, have you got any views on Haiti Couleurs?
Many thanks
happy to give you my thoughts.Just about to put the nosebag on but will get back to you later.1 -
I find it interesting that Haiti Couleurs was sold to Willies brother George Mullins in 2017 and then later sold on to be trained by Rebecca Curtis. I think the horse was bought as a Gold Cup prospect but he was pulled up this year in that. However he did win the Irish Grand National last year.2
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franksav63 said:Hi Peanuts
Many thanks on your posts on the GN, have you got any views on Haiti Couleurs?
Many thanks
Hi @franksav63
Obviously his CV speaks for itself and he's got considerable talent, despite disappointing in the GC. That was his main target and his Denman Chase win put him up to 166, meaning for example that, among others, he's 22lbs worse off at Aintree with Quai De Bourbon for his 10L victory over him in the Irish GN last April.
Perhaps unfairly but nonetheless, given the quality of the race now, PU in both his Grade 1 attempts doesn't jive with successfully carrying 11.10 in a GN.
That said, his 67% Strike Rate over fences, all 23.5~30.5f, is excellent - the most impressive win in my view being his making all in the Welsh GN on quick ground under 11.13, though it has to be said the form of that Welsh GN isn’t looking crash hot (0 wins from 21).
His style is typically to front-run and, while racing in touch in the GN is definitely desirable, the stats suggest you don't want to be too prominent too early. As Attheraces' Simon Rowlands notes about recent GNs: "A typical GN 1st, 2nd and 3rd has been just ahead of mid-division at first Becher’s and again at the Water Jump (halfway).Only one first-three finisher has been in the first three at Becher’s on the opening circuit (Magic of Light, 2nd 2019), and the outcomes for front-runners at that stage have been dismal: more than half have pulled up and none have finished closer than fourteenth.”
As I've said previously, there will always be outliers (from my model's perspective) winning or making the frame - it's always work in progress - and HC would certainly be one if he were to score.
That's because there's very little "fit" between his pedigree and any 1~5 GN finisher since 2013 by my reckoning. To be brutally frank, there’s so little to grab hold of pedigree-wise, I don’t think I’d be able to reconcile him - he’d be a model crusher!
- on the plus side, his sire Dragon Dancer is by Sadlers Wells but, though close 2nd in the Derby, hasn't produced a G1 winner or any other NH runner of note
- none of HC's first 3 damsires have produced a G1 winner or any GN frame-maker, either as sire or damsire
- there is no Wild Risk anywhere in his pedigree - 12/12 GN winners and 9 of 10 beaten <5L had Wild Risk present somewhere
- bar a modest one to Mill Reef, there's little by way of linebreeding to key mares or stallions, typical of GN frame-makers
So I can't have him. BUT I certainly wouldn't deny his ability. I just think that Denman Chase win has put him on a very toppy mark.
Hope this helps but, as always, if you fancy him, please don't let me put you off.2 -
Wow, many thanks Peanuts that is a brilliant and detailed critique. Real food for thought, thanks again.1
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or it could just be a whole heap of horse-shitfranksav63 said:Wow, many thanks Peanuts that is a brilliant and detailed critique. Real food for thought, thanks again.
Cheers @franksav63
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Went to 14/1 in running at one point.PeanutsMolloy said:A result today to please backers of Johnnywho and Jagwar.
4th in the Ultima, Blow Your Wad, giving 18lbs+ to the field, won a modest-quality 20f handicap chase at Chepstow to frank the form (1 win from 1).Didn’t look great two out, but pulled away nicely entering final 1/2F1 -
Did what he should have done (eventually). Not sure why he wasn’t fav, given he was the class act in the race.R0TW said:
Went to 14/1 in running at one point.PeanutsMolloy said:A result today to please backers of Johnnywho and Jagwar.
4th in the Ultima, Blow Your Wad, giving 18lbs+ to the field, won a modest-quality 20f handicap chase at Chepstow to frank the form (1 win from 1).Didn’t look great two out, but pulled away nicely entering final 1/2F1 -
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I’m amazed to see that the horses (or is it the jockeys?) ranked down to to 14th place are all either Irish or French. 15th place is British.
https://www.grandnational.org.uk/grand-national-runners.php0 -
It's where the mother (Dam) of the horse is based.jimmymelrose said:I’m amazed to see that the horses (or is it the jockeys?) ranked down to to 14th place are all either Irish or French. 15th place is British.
https://www.grandnational.org.uk/grand-national-runners.php
It's actually not that surprising as most of the best NH horses for many many decades have been Irish-bred.1 -
Just combing through the top 40 one final time, there is something I'd missed with Haiti Couleurs that he has in common with Pineau De Re - like him a product of a Selle Francais dam (a French non-thoroughbred) and the only such winner of a Grand National since Neptune Collonges in 2012.
There is a significant French mare (Astronomie - dam of 5 G1 winners, including 2 that won the Ascot Gold Cup and another than won the 20f Prix Du Cadran) to whom they are both linebred.
She is a significant stamina contributor, and there's no denying he's demonstrated plenty of that.
It makes him a tad less of a rank outlier but his pedigree, especially without any component of the Wild Risk family - to which Pineau De Re was significantly linebred - is still short of other key traits by my model's reckoning.
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Thank you for the comprehensive information, the pedigree/mtDNA aspect is new to me and fascinating.PeanutsMolloy said:AdamGS said:Hi Peanuts, love the thread every year.
Can I ask for your view on Now Is The Hour after it seems Aintree is confirmed? Career best LTO, appears to go on any ground, should stay the trip and Gavin Cromwell is a shrewd trainer. He's technically a 3rd season chaser but his first season was a single run in the March and so arguably has a profile more akin to a second season novice. Would he figure higher on the list if you treated him as a second season chaser?So write ups on my model's top selections, first:
NOW IS THE HOUR (33/1) - Strong Place (borderline win) Potential, regardless of Going
CV
- 9 yo with 11 chases to date, he was still technically still a novice this season and so was eligible to run in the Brown Advisory Novice Grade 1 (a terrific 6L 5th off his GNOR149) at Cheltenham, having run really well in the 30f NH Novice Chase at the 2025 Festival
- it's that run a year ago, over 30f, that is a key plank of his GN-potential CV as, though giving Haiti Couleurs 4lbs, he was his closest and most threatening challenger when HC cut across him at the 2nd last and he fell (distracted by HC it looked to me) - otherwise might have been a close 2nd. That was on quick ground, so I've never been worried about going for him. NITH will be 21lbs better off with HC in the GN.
- he disappointed in the Irish GN a month later (possibly too soon) and again over 30f in the Porterstown when clattering the 2nd last fence - beaten at the time, both at Fairyhouse and on Soft ground - but the Cromwell yard has had a very up and down this season, which might account for the latter.
- his well-being and going-versatility were confirmed when he won the Thyestes in January. Though leader Spanish Harlem URd at the last, prompting some to call NITH a fortunate winner, he finished like a train on testing ground over 25f and might well have nicked it anyway.
- his 5th in the recent 25f Brown Advisory is also noteworthy in that only he and Oscars Brother (4th) ran the final furlong (up the Hill) quicker than the penultimate furlong - i.e. they were both accelerating and closing on the leaders at the line. Again on quick ground, that run set a new career-best RPR (i.e. after the GN weights were allotted) 6lbs above his GNOR (not a spectacular but a very healthy premium). Finishing a Neck behind him, he’ll be 6lbs better off with Oscar’s Brother in the GN.
Pedigree (joint 4th strongest for a GN, by my model's assessment):
- sire Westerner was x5 G1 winner (x3 at 2.5m) and, significantly, is descended from Northern Dancer, via Danehill (12/12 GN winners were ND descendants from 58% of runners - Corach Rambler also via Danehill)
Westerner has to date sired 3 horses to run in at least 1 GN, including 2016 4th Gilgamboa and Mr Incredible who, despite his nutty ways, was close 2nd in a 34f Midlands National under 12 stone. Westerner also sired Midlands National winner Truckers Lodge, so he's a proven sire of NH stayers.
- his damsires present a star-studded array of quality G1 winners and stallions: DS1~5 Azamour, Darshaan (to whom NITH is strongly linebred - 5th and 3rd Gens), The Minstrel, Sheshoon and Crepello were all G1 winners at 10~20f and produced as sire and/or damsire G1 winners at 12~20f
- the dams in his maternal family also include several G1 winners at 8~12f, the most recent being his maternal Grandmother Key Change - a Yorkshire Oaks winner and Irish St Leger near-misser - and, via his 4th Dam, NITH is related to St Leger winner Milan and Irish & Epsom Derby winner Kahyasi
- he shares his mtDNA B1a with Tiger Roll and GN5th and Midlands National winner Goonyella, though isn't related to either and that mtDNA forms too small a GN sample size from which to draw any strong conclusions
Overall, it's the quality of his damside, in combo with the staying credentials of his sire, that is the biggest contributor to the model's rating of him as Strong Place Potential.
He wouldn't be much of an outlier as a Winner, given his novice status for much of this season. One issue, given that he'll have 1 or 2 stablemates running is choice of jockey - particularly since Keith Donaghue can't do the weight on any of them and no claims are allowed in the GN.
We'll have to wait to see who pilots the Cromwell trio, 2 of which could be in my team.Now Is The Hour is definitely on the betting slip though the Betfair drift in the last 24 hours is making me slightly anxious. Hopefully it’s just a low liquidity thing.Maybe I’ll play a speculative related forecast through the form line with Oscars Brother.1 -
AdamGS said:
Thank you for the comprehensive information, the pedigree/mtDNA aspect is new to me and fascinating.PeanutsMolloy said:AdamGS said:Hi Peanuts, love the thread every year.
Can I ask for your view on Now Is The Hour after it seems Aintree is confirmed? Career best LTO, appears to go on any ground, should stay the trip and Gavin Cromwell is a shrewd trainer. He's technically a 3rd season chaser but his first season was a single run in the March and so arguably has a profile more akin to a second season novice. Would he figure higher on the list if you treated him as a second season chaser?So write ups on my model's top selections, first:
NOW IS THE HOUR (33/1) - Strong Place (borderline win) Potential, regardless of Going
CV
- 9 yo with 11 chases to date, he was still technically still a novice this season and so was eligible to run in the Brown Advisory Novice Grade 1 (a terrific 6L 5th off his GNOR149) at Cheltenham, having run really well in the 30f NH Novice Chase at the 2025 Festival
- it's that run a year ago, over 30f, that is a key plank of his GN-potential CV as, though giving Haiti Couleurs 4lbs, he was his closest and most threatening challenger when HC cut across him at the 2nd last and he fell (distracted by HC it looked to me) - otherwise might have been a close 2nd. That was on quick ground, so I've never been worried about going for him. NITH will be 21lbs better off with HC in the GN.
- he disappointed in the Irish GN a month later (possibly too soon) and again over 30f in the Porterstown when clattering the 2nd last fence - beaten at the time, both at Fairyhouse and on Soft ground - but the Cromwell yard has had a very up and down this season, which might account for the latter.
- his well-being and going-versatility were confirmed when he won the Thyestes in January. Though leader Spanish Harlem URd at the last, prompting some to call NITH a fortunate winner, he finished like a train on testing ground over 25f and might well have nicked it anyway.
- his 5th in the recent 25f Brown Advisory is also noteworthy in that only he and Oscars Brother (4th) ran the final furlong (up the Hill) quicker than the penultimate furlong - i.e. they were both accelerating and closing on the leaders at the line. Again on quick ground, that run set a new career-best RPR (i.e. after the GN weights were allotted) 6lbs above his GNOR (not a spectacular but a very healthy premium). Finishing a Neck behind him, he’ll be 6lbs better off with Oscar’s Brother in the GN.
Pedigree (joint 4th strongest for a GN, by my model's assessment):
- sire Westerner was x5 G1 winner (x3 at 2.5m) and, significantly, is descended from Northern Dancer, via Danehill (12/12 GN winners were ND descendants from 58% of runners - Corach Rambler also via Danehill)
Westerner has to date sired 3 horses to run in at least 1 GN, including 2016 4th Gilgamboa and Mr Incredible who, despite his nutty ways, was close 2nd in a 34f Midlands National under 12 stone. Westerner also sired Midlands National winner Truckers Lodge, so he's a proven sire of NH stayers.
- his damsires present a star-studded array of quality G1 winners and stallions: DS1~5 Azamour, Darshaan (to whom NITH is strongly linebred - 5th and 3rd Gens), The Minstrel, Sheshoon and Crepello were all G1 winners at 10~20f and produced as sire and/or damsire G1 winners at 12~20f
- the dams in his maternal family also include several G1 winners at 8~12f, the most recent being his maternal Grandmother Key Change - a Yorkshire Oaks winner and Irish St Leger near-misser - and, via his 4th Dam, NITH is related to St Leger winner Milan and Irish & Epsom Derby winner Kahyasi
- he shares his mtDNA B1a with Tiger Roll and GN5th and Midlands National winner Goonyella, though isn't related to either and that mtDNA forms too small a GN sample size from which to draw any strong conclusions
Overall, it's the quality of his damside, in combo with the staying credentials of his sire, that is the biggest contributor to the model's rating of him as Strong Place Potential.
He wouldn't be much of an outlier as a Winner, given his novice status for much of this season. One issue, given that he'll have 1 or 2 stablemates running is choice of jockey - particularly since Keith Donaghue can't do the weight on any of them and no claims are allowed in the GN.
We'll have to wait to see who pilots the Cromwell trio, 2 of which could be in my team.Now Is The Hour is definitely on the betting slip though the Betfair drift in the last 24 hours is making me slightly anxious. Hopefully it’s just a low liquidity thing.Maybe I’ll play a speculative related forecast through the form line with Oscars Brother.
I wouldn't be too bothered about Betfair - it's a particularly thin market this year and you're either hot or not.
There's a view, which I don't share, that he'd prefer soft ground - Cromwell said at the weights-unveiling that he may not run him if it were as quick as last year.
Forecast is looking relatively dry again so maybe that's why he's drifted but he was pulled out of the Irish GN and I'd be surprised (and sorely disappointed) if he were taken out of Aintree. He'll handle Aintree GS fine IMHO.
Good luck.0 -
Harry Cobden has a lot of rides for Willie Mullins at Cork although the first two have been beaten. I am still hopeful that he may ride Captain Cody in the GN.1
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I've had the feeling since the Bobbyjo that, especially if it's decent ground, Townend will opt for Grangeclare.Starinnaddick said:Harry Cobden has a lot of rides for Willie Mullins at Cork although the first two have been beaten. I am still hopeful that he may ride Captain Cody in the GN.
If so, I wonder if Cobden may be offered or choose to ride Max. We'll find out soon.
Actually I'll be on his ride tomorrow in the Irish GN - more shortly.0 -
I am on Max so Cobden riding him would be handy. Jockey bookings will be interesting.1
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And so to Ireland.
A sunny, breezy, drying day tomorrow so ground should be Yielding or thereabouts.
- I can barely spell it let alone pronounce it, he was staying on on the testing ground (furthest trip attempted) but just touched off at Naas. He looks a typical unexposed young chaser (6 yo) that can take the Fairyhouse feature in his first season over fences (6 chases to his name)
The very early form of the Leinster National, run 4 weeks ago at Naas, is looking good - 3 have run again, producing 2 wins, 1 at a higher class – and 2 of my selections ran well in that race:
GORAIBHMAITHAGAT (16/1 e/w)
- by Flemensfirth who sired x3 GN2nds (King Johns Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic of Light) and other top stayers, including 29f Class 1 winners Minella Cocooner and Tidal Bay
- 4th Dam (Akiyda) was an Arc winner and damsires Galileo and Mark Of Esteem should bequeath courage and stamina respectively
- Harry Cobden rides the JP homebred
- 4th of 15 at Naas on ground that doesn't suit - as a typical son of Presenting, he wants a decent surface, which he should get tomorrow
SHANBALLY KID (40/1 e/w) (nap)
- beat Montys Star in a maiden hurdle but he's bred to be a staying chaser (damsire Kalanisi was damsire of Midlands National near-misser Mr Incredible) and best run to date was winning the 4m handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival a year ago on Yielding, storming clear of the field to win by 15L. , in a decent time despite being taken around the extreme outside. The form of that race also looks decent - 3 of the next 5 home winning on their next or subsequent outing
- only outing since on his preferred ground was a respectable 13L defeat in December's Paddy Power over 24.5f – outpaced but kept on
- tomorrow's mark is 11lbs higher than at Punchestown (was originally put up 14lbs) but he looked thrown-in there and and was well worth the rise - this will be the first run since with both conditions and trip to suit
- carrying just 10.06, with the very capable John Shinnick on board for the Willie Mullins yard
SEARCH FOR GLORY (28/1 e/w)- you can forget his flop in this a year ago on Sft/Hvy. This lad needs a decent surface, which he got when running a blinder in the Ultima last time – unfortunately UR-ing at the last when looking the potential winner
- up only 2lbs for that – the race producing 1 winner from 1 run- like Shanbally Kid, the only other occasion this season he got his ground was in the Paddy Power at Leopardstown in December when he was a staying on 4.5L 2nd. Winner (up 9lbs) and 4th both won next outing
- 5lb claimer James Smith rides tomorrow, as he did at Leopardstown and Cheltenham – gets a good tune out of him, if he can just keep his arse in the saddle! – and 11.00 is a winnable-with weight for the race (2 of last 3 carried more, though none has lumped more than 11.04 to win for 31 years)
These are my top 3 e/w picks but please note, there's no model involved here.
May add one more after further mulling.
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Hummed and haaa'd quite a bit about my final selection.
I really like Better Days Ahead and remain pissed off he was sent to Fairyhouse rather than Aintree but there's one factor stopping me backing him.
It's 31 years since an Irish GN winner carried more than 11.04 and, like all the more seasoned chasers, he's vulnerable to an unexposed 1st season chaser that turns out to have been thrown in. Odds of 14/1 for BDA don't cut the mustard when I think he'll find at least 1 too good off their mark.
So I'm going to take a chance, albeit at an even shorter price, with a Win bet on one of those unexposed youngsters - in fact, the least experienced runner in the race:
SOLDIER IN MILAN (9/1 win)
- 7 yo, closely related to Oscar Time (2nd Irish GN and 2nd & 4th Aintree GN) and in his first season over fences (4 chases to his name). Indeed he's only had 5 races Under Rules, the first (a bumper) under a year ago, after which the shrewd Emmet Mullins sent him straight over fences
- never run at Fairyhouse nor in a handicap, he's an unknown quantity but there's an interesting yardstick of his talent: in winning his only PtP he notched an RPR 94 and in winning his only bumper, he notched RPR 124. To achieve 90+ and 120+ in PtP and NHF is a mark of uncommon ability and to do so on single outings is noteworthy
- the form of that bumper and indeed his first 3 chases is strong and he's finished his races as though he'll be better over further
- set to carry a winnable-with 11.00, with Donagh Meyler on board (as he was for his defeat of Kiss Will in February), a first chase mark of 142 is not unearned but could look very generous come 5.08 tomorrow
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