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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
Comments
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I don't know, they have WBA last game of the season at home. How much of a winnable game that is will probably depend on the points deduction.msomerton said:
And Wednesday fans see as their best chance of a home win.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm pretty confident that we won't lose on Saturday. Not by any means saying that we'll win but i don't think we'll lose.DOUCHER said:I’m definitely guilty of switching off this season after the oxford draw. To me that was it, job done - I think like everybody else we have now tilted into full on panic as we are sticking out like a sore thumb as the team who gets dragged in late on - I think we’re also assuming we only have the Sheff Wed game as a realistic chance at getting anything- I agree we have to go into the game like that but the reality is we’re just as likely to pick up points in the other 3 games - I reckon NJ will have the squad fully switched back on 100% this week and we will be wondering what we were panicking about
Aside from our recent away form being very good, it appears to be a game where a lot of fans are expecting us to slip up. Typically those are the games where we actually go and get a result. It's the games where people are confident of a win that we tend to fuck up.
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golfaddick said:
Both Leicester and Pompey can't get those points as they play each other on Sat.stoneroses19 said:
Looking at the table, I can’t see how you’ve calculated someone is getting relegated on 52 points.SteveKielyCambridge said:Looking at the fixtures other teams have, I would say that we need 4 more points. Don't really care where they come from (after watching Ipswich last night, the home game against them now looks a lot more possible), but I think that someone will be relegated on 52 points this season.The teams in relegation fight would all need to gain the amount of points seen below in 4 games (Blackburn in 3 games) to reach 52 points.Some of the below will get to 52 points, but not enough of them for one to be relegated with that points tally.Leicester 12 points
Oxford 8 points
West Brom 6 points
Blackburn 4 points
Portsmouth 4 points
Charlton 3 points
Just relax. We will all be laughing about this in a couple of months time when on our holibobs sipping margaritas on the beach and planning our trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
How many ticket phases for that one, 20 ?1 -
Oxford lost, so the maximum tally (for 22nd) sits at 53, that is factoring in Oxford win all their games, and there is no more EFL point dedications.I always though 52 would be enough, but it would be nice to win a game before the end of the season.Charlton in a scenario we draw points with Oxford (or West Brom). We have +2 better goal difference (the same goal difference). Both teams we beat 1-0 at home, drew 1-1 away (if that is needed)0
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If we end up on the same points as them our goal difference would be +2 due to them winning.JustFloydRoad said:Oxford lost, so the maximum tally (for 22nd) sits at 53, that is factoring in Oxford win all their games, and there is no more EFL point dedications.I always though 52 would be enough, but it would be nice to win a game before the end of the season.Charlton in a scenario we draw points with Oxford (or West Brom). We have +2 better goal difference (the same goal difference). Both teams we beat 1-0 at home, drew 1-1 away (if that is needed)0 -
I can't believe it's gotten to the point where our most important game of the season is needing Wrexham to get a result, and that there's a chance it'll become Millwall needing to get a result1
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West Brom are unbeaten since February.dmccart32 said:
I don't know, they have WBA last game of the season at home. How much of a winnable game that is will probably depend on the points deduction.msomerton said:
And Wednesday fans see as their best chance of a home win.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm pretty confident that we won't lose on Saturday. Not by any means saying that we'll win but i don't think we'll lose.DOUCHER said:I’m definitely guilty of switching off this season after the oxford draw. To me that was it, job done - I think like everybody else we have now tilted into full on panic as we are sticking out like a sore thumb as the team who gets dragged in late on - I think we’re also assuming we only have the Sheff Wed game as a realistic chance at getting anything- I agree we have to go into the game like that but the reality is we’re just as likely to pick up points in the other 3 games - I reckon NJ will have the squad fully switched back on 100% this week and we will be wondering what we were panicking about
Aside from our recent away form being very good, it appears to be a game where a lot of fans are expecting us to slip up. Typically those are the games where we actually go and get a result. It's the games where people are confident of a win that we tend to fuck up.0 -
That Erik Ramsay appointment was so needlessAberystwythAddick said:
West Brom are unbeaten since February.dmccart32 said:
I don't know, they have WBA last game of the season at home. How much of a winnable game that is will probably depend on the points deduction.msomerton said:
And Wednesday fans see as their best chance of a home win.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm pretty confident that we won't lose on Saturday. Not by any means saying that we'll win but i don't think we'll lose.DOUCHER said:I’m definitely guilty of switching off this season after the oxford draw. To me that was it, job done - I think like everybody else we have now tilted into full on panic as we are sticking out like a sore thumb as the team who gets dragged in late on - I think we’re also assuming we only have the Sheff Wed game as a realistic chance at getting anything- I agree we have to go into the game like that but the reality is we’re just as likely to pick up points in the other 3 games - I reckon NJ will have the squad fully switched back on 100% this week and we will be wondering what we were panicking about
Aside from our recent away form being very good, it appears to be a game where a lot of fans are expecting us to slip up. Typically those are the games where we actually go and get a result. It's the games where people are confident of a win that we tend to fuck up.0 -
Personally i think it's now between us and Oxford.
Portsmouth are pretty much safe after a great week.
Blackburn will almost certainly beat a relegated Leicester side at home on the last day.
West Brom are on a good unbeaten run but if they get deducted 2-3 points (as is rumoured) then they drop to 46 or 47 points, and need a win to get back above us. However with Watford at home and Sheff Weds away still to play, i'm confident they get to 51-52 points even with a deduction.
So that leaves:
Us who are on a terrible run and with 2 tough home games this week.
Oxford on a fairly good run although they have stumbled recently and are 6 points behind us.
Oxford v Wrexham is a huge game for 3 sides. Both of them and us.
Oxford need a win to give themselves a chance of staying up.
Wrexham need a win to stay in the play off hunt.
We need a Wrexham win as then we are pretty much safe with 3 games to go.
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Another in a long list of good coach but bad managerForeverAddickted said:
That Erik Ramsay appointment was so needlessAberystwythAddick said:
West Brom are unbeaten since February.dmccart32 said:
I don't know, they have WBA last game of the season at home. How much of a winnable game that is will probably depend on the points deduction.msomerton said:
And Wednesday fans see as their best chance of a home win.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
I'm pretty confident that we won't lose on Saturday. Not by any means saying that we'll win but i don't think we'll lose.DOUCHER said:I’m definitely guilty of switching off this season after the oxford draw. To me that was it, job done - I think like everybody else we have now tilted into full on panic as we are sticking out like a sore thumb as the team who gets dragged in late on - I think we’re also assuming we only have the Sheff Wed game as a realistic chance at getting anything- I agree we have to go into the game like that but the reality is we’re just as likely to pick up points in the other 3 games - I reckon NJ will have the squad fully switched back on 100% this week and we will be wondering what we were panicking about
Aside from our recent away form being very good, it appears to be a game where a lot of fans are expecting us to slip up. Typically those are the games where we actually go and get a result. It's the games where people are confident of a win that we tend to fuck up.0 -
Chris_from_Sidcup said:Personally i think it's now between us and Oxford.
Portsmouth are pretty much safe after a great week.
Blackburn will almost certainly beat a relegated Leicester side at home on the last day.
West Brom are on a good unbeaten run but if they get deducted 2-3 points (as is rumoured) then they drop to 46 or 47 points, and need a win to get back above us. However with Watford at home and Sheff Weds away still to play, i'm confident they get to 51-52 points even with a deduction.
So that leaves:
Us who are on a terrible run and with 2 tough home games this week.
Oxford on a fairly good run although they have stumbled recently and are 6 points behind us.
Oxford v Wrexham is a huge game for 3 sides. Both of them and us.
Oxford need a win to give themselves a chance of staying up.
Wrexham need a win to stay in the play off hunt.
We need a Wrexham win as then we are pretty much safe with 3 games to go.
Even if it plays out like that against Wrexham are we 'pretty much safe' though? The Wednesday game is great chance for Oxford to pick up 3 points and on the last day Millwall might have nothing to play for or be under massive pressure to get a result. Either scenario could work in Oxford's favour.0 -
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I'm looking at 6 points for Oxford (watched them yesterday and they were as bad as us). Can't see them not losing 1 of the 3. So 1 more point and may not even need that.0
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I say 'pretty much' safe because they play before us this week. If they lose to Wrexham then to stay up they need:SantaClaus said:Chris_from_Sidcup said:Personally i think it's now between us and Oxford.
Portsmouth are pretty much safe after a great week.
Blackburn will almost certainly beat a relegated Leicester side at home on the last day.
West Brom are on a good unbeaten run but if they get deducted 2-3 points (as is rumoured) then they drop to 46 or 47 points, and need a win to get back above us. However with Watford at home and Sheff Weds away still to play, i'm confident they get to 51-52 points even with a deduction.
So that leaves:
Us who are on a terrible run and with 2 tough home games this week.
Oxford on a fairly good run although they have stumbled recently and are 6 points behind us.
Oxford v Wrexham is a huge game for 3 sides. Both of them and us.
Oxford need a win to give themselves a chance of staying up.
Wrexham need a win to stay in the play off hunt.
We need a Wrexham win as then we are pretty much safe with 3 games to go.
Even if it plays out like that against Wrexham are we 'pretty much safe' though? The Wednesday game is great chance for Oxford to pick up 3 points and on the last day Millwall might have nothing to play for or be under massive pressure to get a result. Either scenario could work in Oxford's favour.
a) to win both their last 2 games
b) us to lose all 3 games
I don't see both of those things happening. I don't think they will win at Millwall and i also think we will get a point from somewhere.
However if we were to lose all 3 and go down then it will be absolutely deserved, as we will have taken just 3 points from the final 9 games and it will be eerily similar to 19/20 when we took 3 points from the last 7 games.0 -
Yep but that's football. Lots of "if onlys" could be used by all teams throughout the season.se9addick said:
If we had just held on for the last 15 minutes yesterday…Talal said:I'm looking at 6 points for Oxford (watched them yesterday and they were as bad as us). Can't see them not losing 1 of the 3. So 1 more point and may not even need that.2 -
What is the basis for thinking we will get at least 3 more points this season ? We are far more likely to pick up none than 3+GNelson said:I'm in the quietly confident camp.
I think there is a 50% chance that we are already safe on the points we currently have.
I also think we'll get at least 3 points before the end of the season, and those 3 points would give us >95% chance of staying up.0 -
I watched the Oxford game yesterday and they definitely were not as bad as us.Talal said:I'm looking at 6 points for Oxford (watched them yesterday and they were as bad as us). Can't see them not losing 1 of the 3. So 1 more point and may not even need that.
I'm hopeful that Wrexham can beat them but far from confident.0 -
When did Oxford become world beaters?0
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There's a lot of ifs and buts though.se9addick said:
If we had just held on for the last 15 minutes yesterday…Talal said:I'm looking at 6 points for Oxford (watched them yesterday and they were as bad as us). Can't see them not losing 1 of the 3. So 1 more point and may not even need that.
If Kelman didn't score an injury time penalty Oxford would be 3 points behind us. Oxford also played 73 minutes against 10 men at Portsmouth 2 weeks ago, and conceded a late equaliser in a game they should've won.0 -
Think people are underestimating Blackburn in this fight they lose against Sheffield United they have to beat Leceister to overtake us. I know Leceister honk but only 4 losses in 11 they do have the potential to scrap a draw1
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Why would Leicester scrap for a draw on the last day when they'll already be relegated and about 70% of their team won't be there next season?Crispywood said:Think people are underestimating Blackburn in this fight they lose against Sheffield United they have to beat Leceister to overtake us. I know Leceister honk but only 4 losses in 11 they do have the potential to scrap a draw0 -
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Ok maybe a bit of a stretch but they weren't good. Confident they'll get no more than 6 points.superclive98 said:
I watched the Oxford game yesterday and they definitely were not as bad as us.Talal said:I'm looking at 6 points for Oxford (watched them yesterday and they were as bad as us). Can't see them not losing 1 of the 3. So 1 more point and may not even need that.
I'm hopeful that Wrexham can beat them but far from confident.0 -
6 points might be enough for them.Talal said:
Ok maybe a bit of a stretch but they weren't good. Confident they'll get no more than 6 points.superclive98 said:
I watched the Oxford game yesterday and they definitely were not as bad as us.Talal said:I'm looking at 6 points for Oxford (watched them yesterday and they were as bad as us). Can't see them not losing 1 of the 3. So 1 more point and may not even need that.
I'm hopeful that Wrexham can beat them but far from confident.1 -
For Oxford or WBA to draw level on points with us means that they will be winning games and us losing or drawing. Ergo......Their GD will be decreasing & ours, at best, staying the sameJustFloydRoad said:Oxford lost, so the maximum tally (for 22nd) sits at 53, that is factoring in Oxford win all their games, and there is no more EFL point dedications.I always though 52 would be enough, but it would be nice to win a game before the end of the season.Charlton in a scenario we draw points with Oxford (or West Brom). We have +2 better goal difference (the same goal difference). Both teams we beat 1-0 at home, drew 1-1 away (if that is needed)
If it comes down to GD we will be relegated0 -
Don't have to be world beaters.....just have to beat the team in front of you on the pitch.elbiglad said:When did Oxford become world beaters?1 -
It is irritating that it has come to this but it is still unlikely we drop. Leicester are gone, Oxford need to win two of their last three to match our points tally. A win against Sheff Wednesday and draws against Wrexham and Millwall wouldn't be enough for them. Two wins and we lose our last three and they will probably have a better goal difference. I can see us getting a point at home to Hull which would help a lot. Blackburn have two games left, away to Sheff United and if they lose that, they will finish below us if they lose to Leicester. I think we have probably done the bare minimum and can thank that injury time penalty against Oxford or we would be in big trouble.0
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I said 50 at the start of the season, and I still think that will be enough.
I almost expect we will conjure some odd results in our final games and it will look a lot more comfortable than it has been.
Ipswich and Hull have to win and you expect them to come out attacking. Generally we play better in that situation so it could play to our strengths. Swansea is a coin flip, their season is done. They aren't massively ahead of us, so we could grab something there.
Blackburn will be under real pressure if they don't win against Sheffield United. Leicester could well raise their game to drag them down with them.
Oxford have to play Wrexham and Millwall who are likely to be going for results up until the final day. Can they get 4 points there? I'm not convinced. Then they have Sheffield Wednesday and their last few results have shown they are more than capable of nicking a point, it's not a guaranteed 3 points.
West Brom also have Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday. Plus Watford which is a coin flip much like our Swansea game. Then they have the threat of a points deduction hanging over them.
I'd have loved to have been safe by now, but when have we ever done things the easy way? That's just not Charlton.1 -
Blackburn loss at Sheffield United and draw at leceistwr and we should still finish above them even if we lose all 3MuttleyCAFC said:It is irritating that it has come to this but it is still unlikely we drop. Leicester are gone, Oxford need to win two of their last three to match our points tally. A win against Sheff Wednesday and draws against Wrexham and Millwall wouldn't be enough for them. Two wins and we lose our last three and they will probably have a better goal difference. I can see us getting a point at home to Hull which would help a lot. Blackburn have two games left, away to Sheff United and if they lose that, they will finish below us if they lose to Leicester. I think we have probably done the bare minimum and can thank that injury time penalty against Oxford or we would be in big trouble.0 -
General bookies prices, midweek fixtures, ordered by relegation candidates' odds...
West Brom 4/5
Watford 3/1
Draw 5/2
Leicester 5/6
Hull 11/4
Draw 5/2
Oxford 7/4
Wrexham 6/4
Draw 9/4
Sheff Utd 8/11
Blackburn 10/3
Draw 13/5
Charlton 4/1
Ipswich 8/11
Draw 13/50 -
Well aware. I believe we'll get at least 1 more point.superclive98 said:
6 points might be enough for them.Talal said:
Ok maybe a bit of a stretch but they weren't good. Confident they'll get no more than 6 points.superclive98 said:
I watched the Oxford game yesterday and they definitely were not as bad as us.Talal said:I'm looking at 6 points for Oxford (watched them yesterday and they were as bad as us). Can't see them not losing 1 of the 3. So 1 more point and may not even need that.
I'm hopeful that Wrexham can beat them but far from confident.0
