How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

AberystwythAddick

Leicester are not out of the equation just yet either. They in theory can still catch us if they win their remaining games. 

The odds are fairly in their favour for game against hull. 

So it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on both. 

Ideal is that them and Oxford lose and we are only concerned with that final space 

Callumcafc

Can’t see Leicester winning all three games given the way they’ve been playing lately. Even if they did, that would include a win against Blackburn.

Blackburn are a point behind us and only have two games left. If they lost to Leicester, they’d need at least a point against Sheff Utd to get level on points with us.

kinveachyaddick

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

kinveachyaddick said:

Oxford’s home form is the most relevant factor a their last five is two wins and three draws. Unbeaten in the league at home since 10 Feb. 

A draw for them isn’t the end of the world so hopefully that’s the most they get tonight. 

A draw tonight means they have to win at Millwall on the last day.

It would also mean the max they can get to is 51 points, so there's even a chance that they could be relegated on Saturday if results elsewhere go against them.

So yes you are right a draw isn't quite the end of the world, but it makes life very difficult for them.

I meant isn’t the end of the world for us. 

DOUCHER

Oxford and Leicester defeats tonight and a point will be enough tomorrow. COYR's, taffs and tigers !!! 

DyerConsequences

Yes Oxford are unbeaten in 5 at home but important to add context. Those 5 were against Charlton, Blackburn, West Brom, Hull and Watford. What was our record at home against Oxford, Blackburn, West Brom and Watford? Played 4 won 4.

In the last 6 home and away they've won once. 

Belv

DOUCHER said:

Oxford and Leicester defeats tonight and a point will be enough tomorrow. COYR's, taffs and tigers !!! 

If we get a draw tomorrow, even a draw for Leicester means they won't be able to catch us. 

DamoNorthStand

So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.

If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.

ForeverAddickted

I feel like Leicester's odds to beat Hull are based off the bookies not wanting to take the risk against them

You look at their squad that started vs. Pompey and they should be no where near trouble.

If you watched the game against Pompey on the other hand and you immediately understand why they're down there

DOUCHER

DamoNorthStand said:

So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.

If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.

I'm under no illusions about how precarious our position is and remains even if Oxford lose tonight. Their last 2 games are very winnable in the circumstances. 

DyerConsequences

DamoNorthStand said:

So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.

If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.

If you're looking on social media for a well thought out reasonable view then I think you're looking in the wrong place. Seen plenty on there also guaranteeing we're going down and doomed, so works both ways.

Could Oxford win tonight? Yes. But there's every chance it's a draw or defeat, and 43 games evidence over the season so far that would suggest one of those 2 results is more likely.

It's not just Oxford though, there are still 2 other sides between us and the bottom 3 that people seem to be ignoring, that also have to get more points than us.

I don't think we'll lose our last 3, but I'll be more surprised if there wasn't at least 2 or 3 'surprising' results involving teams down the bottom between now and the end of the season.

Who expected us to beat Ipswich 3-0, who expected Portsmouth to suddenly win 3 in a row. Will I be surprised if Oxford won tonight? No, but I also won't be surprised if we get something tomorrow, or Oxford then lose to Wednesday, or West Brom lose to Watford tonight either.

Chris_from_Sidcup

AberystwythAddick said:

Leicester are not out of the equation just yet either. They in theory can still catch us if they win their remaining games. 

The odds are fairly in their favour for game against hull. 

So it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on both. 

Ideal is that them and Oxford lose and we are only concerned with that final space 

Leicester are absolutely gone. When i looked yesterday they were about 1/20 to be relegated.

DamoNorthStand

DOUCHER said:

DamoNorthStand said:

So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.

If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.

I'm under no illusions about how precarious our position is and remains even if Oxford lose tonight. Their last 2 games are very winnable in the circumstances. 

Thats a very good point which I tried explaining to someone ........ even if they lose, there is every chance we are going in to the final game needing a favour from Millwall.

If they win - looking at our last games - surely there will be loads of people all of a sudden thinking 'Oh shit'.

elbiglad

Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning. 

Belv

elbiglad said:

Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning. 

Yep, people are doing too much with this doom and gloom.

If Millwall away is a very winnable game for Oxford then surely all of our remaining games are also very winnable for us. 

ForeverAddickted

Belv said:

elbiglad said:

Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning. 

Yep, people are doing too much with this doom and gloom.

If Millwall away is a very winnable game for Oxford then surely all of our remaining games are also very winnable or us. 

Ipswich have recently lost @ Fratton Park, putting in a shitshow of a performance. They've also lost at Oxford and Leicester this season - Nothing to say we can't get a point against them ourselves (taking into account our poor home record of late), which guarantees safety if Oxford / Leicester lose tonight.

cafcsinger

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Crispywood said:

Think people are underestimating Blackburn in this fight they lose against Sheffield United they have to beat Leceister to overtake us. I know Leceister honk but only 4 losses in 11 they do have the potential to scrap a draw 

Why would Leicester scrap for a draw on the last day when they'll already be relegated and about 70% of their team won't be there next season?

Not sure it's ever as simple as that. Didn't Newcastle thrash Spurs 5-1 on the last game of the season when they were already relegated?

7dave

Poor as we have been we have been we have still got 3 points in 6 games while Oxford have picked up 6 points in their last 6 so a net gain of 3 points. They now have to double that gain in half the games. Not saying it cant happen but I would still rather be in our position than theirs.