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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
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Leicester are not out of the equation just yet either. They in theory can still catch us if they win their remaining games.The odds are fairly in their favour for game against hull.So it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on both.Ideal is that them and Oxford lose and we are only concerned with that final space0
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Can’t see Leicester winning all three games given the way they’ve been playing lately. Even if they did, that would include a win against Blackburn.
Blackburn are a point behind us and only have two games left. If they lost to Leicester, they’d need at least a point against Sheff Utd to get level on points with us.7 -
I meant isn’t the end of the world for us.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
A draw tonight means they have to win at Millwall on the last day.kinveachyaddick said:Oxford’s home form is the most relevant factor a their last five is two wins and three draws. Unbeaten in the league at home since 10 Feb.A draw for them isn’t the end of the world so hopefully that’s the most they get tonight.
It would also mean the max they can get to is 51 points, so there's even a chance that they could be relegated on Saturday if results elsewhere go against them.
So yes you are right a draw isn't quite the end of the world, but it makes life very difficult for them.0 -
Oxford and Leicester defeats tonight and a point will be enough tomorrow. COYR's, taffs and tigers !!!3
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Yes Oxford are unbeaten in 5 at home but important to add context. Those 5 were against Charlton, Blackburn, West Brom, Hull and Watford. What was our record at home against Oxford, Blackburn, West Brom and Watford? Played 4 won 4.
In the last 6 home and away they've won once.5 -
So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.
If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.
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I feel like Leicester's odds to beat Hull are based off the bookies not wanting to take the risk against themYou look at their squad that started vs. Pompey and they should be no where near trouble.If you watched the game against Pompey on the other hand and you immediately understand why they're down there1
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I'm under no illusions about how precarious our position is and remains even if Oxford lose tonight. Their last 2 games are very winnable in the circumstances.DamoNorthStand said:So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.
If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.0 -
If you're looking on social media for a well thought out reasonable view then I think you're looking in the wrong place. Seen plenty on there also guaranteeing we're going down and doomed, so works both ways.DamoNorthStand said:So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.
If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.
Could Oxford win tonight? Yes. But there's every chance it's a draw or defeat, and 43 games evidence over the season so far that would suggest one of those 2 results is more likely.
It's not just Oxford though, there are still 2 other sides between us and the bottom 3 that people seem to be ignoring, that also have to get more points than us.
I don't think we'll lose our last 3, but I'll be more surprised if there wasn't at least 2 or 3 'surprising' results involving teams down the bottom between now and the end of the season.
Who expected us to beat Ipswich 3-0, who expected Portsmouth to suddenly win 3 in a row. Will I be surprised if Oxford won tonight? No, but I also won't be surprised if we get something tomorrow, or Oxford then lose to Wednesday, or West Brom lose to Watford tonight either.2 -
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Leicester are absolutely gone. When i looked yesterday they were about 1/20 to be relegated.AberystwythAddick said:Leicester are not out of the equation just yet either. They in theory can still catch us if they win their remaining games.The odds are fairly in their favour for game against hull.So it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on both.Ideal is that them and Oxford lose and we are only concerned with that final space2 -
Thats a very good point which I tried explaining to someone ........ even if they lose, there is every chance we are going in to the final game needing a favour from Millwall.DOUCHER said:
I'm under no illusions about how precarious our position is and remains even if Oxford lose tonight. Their last 2 games are very winnable in the circumstances.DamoNorthStand said:So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.
If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.
If they win - looking at our last games - surely there will be loads of people all of a sudden thinking 'Oh shit'.0 -
Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning.3
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Yep, people are doing too much with this doom and gloom.elbiglad said:Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning.
If Millwall away is a very winnable game for Oxford then surely all of our remaining games are also very winnable for us.5 -
Belv said:
Yep, people are doing too much with this doom and gloom.elbiglad said:Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning.
If Millwall away is a very winnable game for Oxford then surely all of our remaining games are also very winnable or us.Ipswich have recently lost @ Fratton Park, putting in a shitshow of a performance. They've also lost at Oxford and Leicester this season - Nothing to say we can't get a point against them ourselves (taking into account our poor home record of late), which guarantees safety if Oxford / Leicester lose tonight.2 -
Not sure it's ever as simple as that. Didn't Newcastle thrash Spurs 5-1 on the last game of the season when they were already relegated?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Why would Leicester scrap for a draw on the last day when they'll already be relegated and about 70% of their team won't be there next season?Crispywood said:Think people are underestimating Blackburn in this fight they lose against Sheffield United they have to beat Leceister to overtake us. I know Leceister honk but only 4 losses in 11 they do have the potential to scrap a draw0 -
Poor as we have been we have been we have still got 3 points in 6 games while Oxford have picked up 6 points in their last 6 so a net gain of 3 points. They now have to double that gain in half the games. Not saying it cant happen but I would still rather be in our position than theirs.1
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Thinking we are definitely safe is no more incredible than thinking we are definitely down. We could still go down of course but it would take an unlikely set of scores to happen at this point. Oxford have to win two games out of three to catch up with us on top of us getting less points than both Blackburn and West Brom as well.DamoNorthStand said:So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.
If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.
It's not impossible by any means but it's not like we are the one team out of form and struggling at the moment. We are still above them for a reason, that reason being that over the season so far they've both been worse than us and not even with a points deduction.2 -
I see the issue here.cafcsinger said:
Not sure it's ever as simple as that. Didn't Newcastle thrash Spurs 5-1 on the last game of the season when they were already relegated?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Why would Leicester scrap for a draw on the last day when they'll already be relegated and about 70% of their team won't be there next season?Crispywood said:Think people are underestimating Blackburn in this fight they lose against Sheffield United they have to beat Leceister to overtake us. I know Leceister honk but only 4 losses in 11 they do have the potential to scrap a draw4 -
Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Leicester are absolutely gone. When i looked yesterday they were about 1/20 to be relegated.AberystwythAddick said:Leicester are not out of the equation just yet either. They in theory can still catch us if they win their remaining games.The odds are fairly in their favour for game against hull.So it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on both.Ideal is that them and Oxford lose and we are only concerned with that final space
Charlton were 200/1 to be relegated just 4 games ago now 14/1 and Arsenal were being given the title by 'Experts' when they were 9 points clear a month ago.
Pompey managed 3 wins in a row and Leicester really should be down but I could see them winning games in row.
After Barnsley beat Forest and Brentford to stay up and send CAFC down I won't rule anything out until the large lady sings.
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The one thing we don't want to happen is for this to go to the last game of the season. That scenario is the footballing equivalent of when things are within your control when chasing down a total in a T20 cricket match - you have to try and win the game in the 19th over because leaving it the final over only brings the opposition into the game.
Oxford have been odds on to go down all season but 15 points in their last nine matches will have given them some belief and freedom to play as if they have less to lose than we do. Whereas we've been trying not to lose games all season and have picked up three points in our last six games. That attitude has kept us out of the relegation zone but we don't want to have to do something that is totally foreign to us in having to win that final match, especially in the knowledge that we haven't scored more than a single goal in any of our last 14 games and only scored two goals in open play on one occasion in our last 33 games.
Should Oxford draw or win tonight then our "free hit" is against Ipswich tomorrow night. Should Oxford draw then that doesn't change the fact that we will go down should they win their final two matches and we lose both (assuming Blackburn beat Wednesday and WBA win one of their three final matches). Do we think that Millwall in that final game of the season against Oxford won't have one eye on the play offs and the other on us being relegated?
We've beaten Ipswich once this season and have to believe that we can do so again.3 -
When Lennie Lawrence was manager, he was dubbed Houdini for the first few years after we went up - we suddenly started winning games which we couldn't do all year. People looking at teams records over the season and basing the next 3 games on that do not understand the 'push comes to shove' factor. Desperation can be incredibly motivating and that's what we've been lacking for the last 5 or 6 games. We haven't been desperate enough and are the proverbial sitting ducks. I do think we'll survive but it will be by the skin of our teeth.DamoNorthStand said:
Thats a very good point which I tried explaining to someone ........ even if they lose, there is every chance we are going in to the final game needing a favour from Millwall.DOUCHER said:
I'm under no illusions about how precarious our position is and remains even if Oxford lose tonight. Their last 2 games are very winnable in the circumstances.DamoNorthStand said:So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.
If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.
If they win - looking at our last games - surely there will be loads of people all of a sudden thinking 'Oh shit'.0 -
local rival that would love to see us relegated, possible that autos is off and big play off games coming up and players needing resting... the ingredients are thereelbiglad said:Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning.0 -
Their fans would like to see us relegated. I imagine Alex Neil and the vast majority of players couldn't care less. Even if second is out of reach it's likely they'll want to win to guarantee third or fourth instead of fifth to make sure the second leg is at home.DOUCHER said:
local rival that would love to see us relegated, possible that autos is off and big play off games coming up and players needing resting... the ingredients are thereelbiglad said:Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning.7 -
I don't think our local rival would give a shit personally. They will want to end up as high as possible and be in control of their own destiny be it getting 2nd or getting the better Playoff tie. I really doubt Alex Neil will rest many if any players at this point and I really don't think the likes of Tristan Crama, Mihailo Ivanovic and Josh Coburn give a single one about sending Charlton down.DOUCHER said:
local rival that would love to see us relegated, possible that autos is off and big play off games coming up and players needing resting... the ingredients are thereelbiglad said:Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning.2 -
Expecting a win for Oxford tonight. The bookies odds have also now shifted and the home win is marginally the most likely outcome of the three.
A win tonight gives them a great springboard to put a few goals past Sheff Wed, they must be eyeing up the goal difference.
C'mon Wrexham - nip all this in the bud.0 -
Why would the spanners want us relegated ? If we're both in The Championship next season it's 6 easy points for them.3
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Most Millwall players would more concerned about impressing and hopefully getting a better contract next seasonGarrymanilow said:
I don't think our local rival would give a shit personally. They will want to end up as high as possible and be in control of their own destiny be it getting 2nd or getting the better Playoff tie. I really doubt Alex Neil will rest many if any players at this point and I really don't think the likes of Tristan Crama, Mihailo Ivanovic and Josh Coburn give a single one about sending Charlton down.DOUCHER said:
local rival that would love to see us relegated, possible that autos is off and big play off games coming up and players needing resting... the ingredients are thereelbiglad said:Sorry, but how is Millwall away a 'very winnable' game for Oxford? Even if Millwall put out a semi-rotated squad I'd expect them to have a very good chance of winning.1 -
Oxford are favourites tonight (as are Leicester at home to Hull):DamoNorthStand said:So many banking on an Oxford defeat tonight, and tonnes across social media almost incredibly saying we are safe and seasons over.
If Oxford do win, and there is every chance they can, and looking at our final games - I think a lot of people will be realising that trouble has been sneaking up on us over the last month or so.
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Oxford in all likelihood have to go for it tonight. It served Pompey well last week against Ipswich, and I’m sure Oxford will be hoping for a similar up and at them, high tempo performance.It’s a bit cat and mouse however given that it could suit Wrexham if they know that’s what will happen. Wrexham also have to get a result to keep their play off hopes alive, but I think Parkinson is a conservative manager, so I expect him to approach it by keeping it tight and hope Oxford over commit0
