How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

superclive98

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Er_Be_Ab_Pl_Wo_Wo_Ch said:

General bookies prices, midweek fixtures, ordered by relegation candidates' odds...

West Brom 4/5
Watford 3/1
Draw 5/2

Leicester 5/6
Hull 11/4
Draw 5/2

Oxford 7/4
Wrexham 6/4
Draw 9/4

Sheff Utd 8/11
Blackburn 10/3
Draw 13/5

Charlton 4/1
Ipswich 8/11
Draw 13/5

Leicester who have 1 win in 17 being odds on at home to a team in the play off spots is terrible. Anyone backing them at that price is crazy, even though it is a do or die match for them.

Fill your boots on a draw and a Hull win then. Combined odds of around 13/10.

AberystwythAddick

If it goes down to the last day I think there will be a team in South Wales who would like nothing more than to relegate Nathan Jones 

elbiglad

golfaddick said:

elbiglad said:

When did Oxford become world beaters? 

Don't have to be world beaters.....just have to beat the team in front of you on the pitch. 

So two promotion chasing teams in Wrexham and Millwall soon to be in front of them. Not sure why everyone on here has already given them six points. 

th0rryy

Despite the result being wholly disappointing on Saturday, the point we got still makes a decent difference and Derby did us a huge favour in beating Oxford.

Tuesday night is now huge for a couple of reasons - I feel like Leicester will likely lose to Hull, and Oxford lose to Wrexham, as both their opposing teams are fighting for that last playoff spot and cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. We get off the hook to a huge extent if both those games go our desired way, which I feel is likely.

Ultimately, I think that if there was another 3-4 more games more than what we have to go, I'd be more concerned. Oxford just left it a little too late and Leicester have just completely capitulated. Those are the two teams I feel are going to be the ones to go now.

I feel the disappointment, but not the panic others have. It's PTSD for a lot of us for last time, but I think we're in a better position than we were then. The fear for me only rises if Oxford win, and we get nothing vs Ipswich. Even then, we get another shot at things vs Hull and any points we get make things ever harder for those around us.

DamoNorthStand

th0rryy said:

Despite the result being wholly disappointing on Saturday, the point we got still makes a decent difference and Derby did us a huge favour in beating Oxford.

Tuesday night is now huge for a couple of reasons - I feel like Leicester will likely lose to Hull, and Oxford lose to Wrexham, as both their opposing teams are fighting for that last playoff spot and cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. We get off the hook to a huge extent if both those games go our desired way, which I feel is likely.

Ultimately, I think that if there was another 3-4 more games more than what we have to go, I'd be more concerned. Oxford just left it a little too late and Leicester have just completely capitulated. Those are the two teams I feel are going to be the ones to go now.

I feel the disappointment, but not the panic others have. It's PTSD for a lot of us for last time, but I think we're in a better position than we were then. The fear for me only rises if Oxford win, and we get nothing vs Ipswich. Even then, we get another shot at things vs Hull and any points we get make things ever harder for those around us.

This is the thing. I think that’s genuinely very likely. Certainly Ipswich should win … that’s certainly odds on.

Is it really they unlikely that Oxford beat Wrexham? I think that games 50/50. Disney looked average at ours.

So your scenario is far from unlikely.

thenewbie

DamoNorthStand said:

th0rryy said:

Despite the result being wholly disappointing on Saturday, the point we got still makes a decent difference and Derby did us a huge favour in beating Oxford.

Tuesday night is now huge for a couple of reasons - I feel like Leicester will likely lose to Hull, and Oxford lose to Wrexham, as both their opposing teams are fighting for that last playoff spot and cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. We get off the hook to a huge extent if both those games go our desired way, which I feel is likely.

Ultimately, I think that if there was another 3-4 more games more than what we have to go, I'd be more concerned. Oxford just left it a little too late and Leicester have just completely capitulated. Those are the two teams I feel are going to be the ones to go now.

I feel the disappointment, but not the panic others have. It's PTSD for a lot of us for last time, but I think we're in a better position than we were then. The fear for me only rises if Oxford win, and we get nothing vs Ipswich. Even then, we get another shot at things vs Hull and any points we get make things ever harder for those around us.

This is the thing. I think that’s genuinely very likely. Certainly Ipswich should win … that’s certainly odds on.

Is it really they unlikely that Oxford beat Wrexham? I think that games 50/50. Disney looked average at ours.

So your scenario is far from unlikely.

I mean, yes it's not really super likely. If Derby could beat them, then Wrexham certainly can, and will be fired up for it as they want to get back into the playoffs. 

I'm not saying Oxford CAN'T win but I wouldn't be counting on it happening. They've been below us pretty much all season, they've won 1 in 5. They're in big trouble.

SantaClaus

According to the bookies Wrexham are only marginally more likely to win than Oxford.

Callumcafc

An Oxford / Ipswich midweek double is about 7/2 if you want to torture yourself.

Danepak

Just watched the Derby v Oxford highlights. Thank you Konak. Thank you, thank you, thank you for being so selfish (6:08 into the video).

https://youtu.be/0xrUu96nBT0?si=5uaT0Mp8EuCK4EoO&t=368

CaptainRobbo

Danepak said:

Just watched the Derby v Oxford highlights. Thank you Konak. Thank you, thank you, thank you for being so selfish (6:08 into the video).

https://youtu.be/0xrUu96nBT0?si=5uaT0Mp8EuCK4EoO&t=368

Quality finisher, sign him up.

Chris_from_Sidcup

th0rryy said:

Despite the result being wholly disappointing on Saturday, the point we got still makes a decent difference and Derby did us a huge favour in beating Oxford.

Tuesday night is now huge for a couple of reasons - I feel like Leicester will likely lose to Hull, and Oxford lose to Wrexham, as both their opposing teams are fighting for that last playoff spot and cannot afford to take their foot off the gas. We get off the hook to a huge extent if both those games go our desired way, which I feel is likely.

Ultimately, I think that if there was another 3-4 more games more than what we have to go, I'd be more concerned. Oxford just left it a little too late and Leicester have just completely capitulated. Those are the two teams I feel are going to be the ones to go now.

I feel the disappointment, but not the panic others have. It's PTSD for a lot of us for last time, but I think we're in a better position than we were then. The fear for me only rises if Oxford win, and we get nothing vs Ipswich. Even then, we get another shot at things vs Hull and any points we get make things ever harder for those around us.

The disappointment is because we didn't hold on for a win that would've probably seen us safe given the earlier Oxford defeat, and we now face two nervy home games.

Looking at it purely from a mathematics point of view though it wasn't terrible. If Oxford and us had both won on Saturday then the gap would be 5 points, but now it's 6. If we continue to match (or better) what Oxford do then we're safe. 

letthegoodtimesroll

In the clutching at straws category and personally not convinced it will still happen, we still haven’t got to a stage where me posting and telling people after the Birmingham result that the 44 points we hit that day may well be enough won’t be the case…

J BLOCK

Oxford get a point against Wrexham and win against Sheff Weds. Charlton lose to Ipswich and Hull. 

2 points in it going into the final day where Oxford play Millwall's 2nd team. 

iaitch

J BLOCK said:

Oxford get a point against Wrexham and win against Sheff Weds. Charlton lose to Ipswich and Hull. 

2 points in it going into the final day where Oxford play Millwall's 2nd team. 

That would depend on the situation after the next few games. Millwall may still be in with a chance of automatic promoition.

shirty5

2025/2026: 6 points above the relegation zone with 3 games to play

2019/2020: 1 point above the relegation zone with 3 games to play (Relegated)

2013/2014: 2 points above the relegation zone with 3 games to play (Safe)

letthegoodtimesroll

iaitch said:

J BLOCK said:

Oxford get a point against Wrexham and win against Sheff Weds. Charlton lose to Ipswich and Hull. 

2 points in it going into the final day where Oxford play Millwall's 2nd team. 

That would depend on the situation after the next few games. Millwall may still be in with a chance of automatic promoition.

Whether you are chasing promotion or heading for the Play offs you have to play your strongest team in every single match at this stage of the season. Resting anyone invites failure.

bobmunro

I now think we will finish in 21st, probably with the points we have now - I cannot see Leicester or Oxford getting to 50 points.

Garrymanilow

One thing I did find interesting when I was stuck listening to the Wednesday iFollow commentary on Saturday (the only thing actually) was that they kept referring to our performance as being on the beach. Their feeling was that this game was a dead rubber, they could only finish bottom and we were safe so it was a bit of a waste of time. The only thing they could see as remotely relevant was that Wednesday could get their first home win. Apart from the fact that, no, we're not on the beach, we just always play like this, it's interesting how almost no-one external to Charlton seems to view us as even being in it. I think that's likely even more the case now that we've got the magic 50 points. It's a complacent attitude because Leicester look a bit like they've given up but all the other teams below us are still getting results here and there, it's not a normal season where you'd look at the teams around where we are and think there's just too much for them to do. Still though, I find it vaguely comforting that I can think we're just worrying more than we need to

Leuth

Garrymanilow said:

One thing I did find interesting when I was stuck listening to the Wednesday iFollow commentary on Saturday (the only thing actually) was that they kept referring to our performance as being on the beach. Their feeling was that this game was a dead rubber, they could only finish bottom and we were safe so it was a bit of a waste of time. The only thing they could see as remotely relevant was that Wednesday could get their first home win. Apart from the fact that, no, we're not on the beach, we just always play like this, it's interesting how almost no-one external to Charlton seems to view us as even being in it. I think that's likely even more the case now that we've got the magic 50 points. It's a complacent attitude because Leicester look a bit like they've given up but all the other teams below us are still getting results here and there, it's not a normal season where you'd look at the teams around where we are and think there's just too much for them to do. Still though, I find it vaguely comforting that I can think we're just worrying more than we need to

What will be incredibly annoying is if Oxford lose tomorrow and everyone immediately says phew okay, we're safe. We are EXTREMELY capable of losing our last 3 games, and Oxford will almost certainly beat Wednesday and then we're at the mercy of fucking Millwall

It would be absolutely incredible if Oxford finish above us but Blackburn go down, tbf

Chris_from_Sidcup

Garrymanilow said:

One thing I did find interesting when I was stuck listening to the Wednesday iFollow commentary on Saturday (the only thing actually) was that they kept referring to our performance as being on the beach. Their feeling was that this game was a dead rubber, they could only finish bottom and we were safe so it was a bit of a waste of time. The only thing they could see as remotely relevant was that Wednesday could get their first home win. Apart from the fact that, no, we're not on the beach, we just always play like this, it's interesting how almost no-one external to Charlton seems to view us as even being in it. I think that's likely even more the case now that we've got the magic 50 points. It's a complacent attitude because Leicester look a bit like they've given up but all the other teams below us are still getting results here and there, it's not a normal season where you'd look at the teams around where we are and think there's just too much for them to do. Still though, I find it vaguely comforting that I can think we're just worrying more than we need to

I definitely don't think we should be complacent. If anyone is then go back 6 years because it is starting to look very similar to the end of the 19/20 season. That season we had multiple chances to secure safety and ultimately ended up relegated on the last day after taking just 3 points from our last 7 games. 

Most people thought Barnsley (Oxford) had no chance. But then they beat play off chasing Nottingham Forest (Wrexham) and on the last day won away to automatic promotion chasing Brentford (Millwall).

We went down by a point. 

letthegoodtimesroll

Garrymanilow said:

One thing I did find interesting when I was stuck listening to the Wednesday iFollow commentary on Saturday (the only thing actually) was that they kept referring to our performance as being on the beach. Their feeling was that this game was a dead rubber, they could only finish bottom and we were safe so it was a bit of a waste of time. The only thing they could see as remotely relevant was that Wednesday could get their first home win. Apart from the fact that, no, we're not on the beach, we just always play like this, it's interesting how almost no-one external to Charlton seems to view us as even being in it. I think that's likely even more the case now that we've got the magic 50 points. It's a complacent attitude because Leicester look a bit like they've given up but all the other teams below us are still getting results here and there, it's not a normal season where you'd look at the teams around where we are and think there's just too much for them to do. Still though, I find it vaguely comforting that I can think we're just worrying more than we need to

We care.

we also know what it’s like to have been in l1 recently and what the gap is between the two divisions. Others are more complacent because they are currently on blissful ignorance mode of what relegation to L1 will really mean this time around

Garrymanilow

Leuth said:

Garrymanilow said:

One thing I did find interesting when I was stuck listening to the Wednesday iFollow commentary on Saturday (the only thing actually) was that they kept referring to our performance as being on the beach. Their feeling was that this game was a dead rubber, they could only finish bottom and we were safe so it was a bit of a waste of time. The only thing they could see as remotely relevant was that Wednesday could get their first home win. Apart from the fact that, no, we're not on the beach, we just always play like this, it's interesting how almost no-one external to Charlton seems to view us as even being in it. I think that's likely even more the case now that we've got the magic 50 points. It's a complacent attitude because Leicester look a bit like they've given up but all the other teams below us are still getting results here and there, it's not a normal season where you'd look at the teams around where we are and think there's just too much for them to do. Still though, I find it vaguely comforting that I can think we're just worrying more than we need to

What will be incredibly annoying is if Oxford lose tomorrow and everyone immediately says phew okay, we're safe. We are EXTREMELY capable of losing our last 3 games, and Oxford will almost certainly beat Wednesday and then we're at the mercy of fucking Millwall

It would be absolutely incredible if Oxford finish above us but Blackburn go down, tbf

Our home form is so bad as well that the Hull and Ipswich games look much more threatening than they otherwise would. If the remaining away game was in the next two I'd be happier because we'd probably get a point there but anything goes on the final day

Belv

I think we'll just about stay up but for those who think the football now is hard to watch, let's see how bad it is now we know just 1 point from any of the next 3 should be enough. 

Weegie Addick

shirty5 said:

2025/2026: 6 points above the relegation zone with 3 games to play

2019/2020: 1 point above the relegation zone with 3 games to play (Relegated)

2013/2014: 2 points above the relegation zone with 3 games to play (Safe)

Thank you. I’ll sleep a bit easier tonight now. 

kinveachyaddick

Oxford’s home form is the most relevant factor a their last five is two wins and three draws. Unbeaten in the league at home since 10 Feb. 

A draw for them isn’t the end of the world so hopefully that’s the most they get tonight. 

kinveachyaddick

Or three wins and two draws even. 

SuperCliveMendonca

kinveachyaddick said:

Or three wins and two draws even. 

Why say something like that! 🙂

th0rryy

The Oxford game tonight is one that is very difficult to predict - it'll likely be fine margins either way, but both teams have a lot to play for. I just still think that, after losing to Derby, they are in last chance saloon. They have all but run out of games, and that last loss was very damaging. It's not to say they can't beat Wrexham, but I just still feel that Wrexham have the quality to win here and they need to, given that Hull should, most likely, also beat Leicester. A point for Oxford is barely enough. Sheff Weds are not also a complete given for 3 points, as the zero pressure mentality helps them.

Just think the pressure that's on Oxford now is huge and no points are a given. Despite our own poor form recently, I still think we are capable of at least 1-2 points if we grind things out - NJ has made a career out of that. We've got the points banked and know what we need to do.

It's not panic stations and every single point we get makes things harder for them. Definitely know which of the two situations I would rather be in, and it's down to us to perform and not be on the beach.

CaptainRobbo

Garrymanilow said:

One thing I did find interesting when I was stuck listening to the Wednesday iFollow commentary on Saturday (the only thing actually) was that they kept referring to our performance as being on the beach. Their feeling was that this game was a dead rubber, they could only finish bottom and we were safe so it was a bit of a waste of time. The only thing they could see as remotely relevant was that Wednesday could get their first home win. Apart from the fact that, no, we're not on the beach, we just always play like this, it's interesting how almost no-one external to Charlton seems to view us as even being in it. I think that's likely even more the case now that we've got the magic 50 points. It's a complacent attitude because Leicester look a bit like they've given up but all the other teams below us are still getting results here and there, it's not a normal season where you'd look at the teams around where we are and think there's just too much for them to do. Still though, I find it vaguely comforting that I can think we're just worrying more than we need to

If this is the beach we've been playing on, it might explain our style of Hoofball. 

Chris_from_Sidcup

kinveachyaddick said:

Oxford’s home form is the most relevant factor a their last five is two wins and three draws. Unbeaten in the league at home since 10 Feb. 

A draw for them isn’t the end of the world so hopefully that’s the most they get tonight. 

A draw tonight means they have to win at Millwall on the last day.

It would also mean the max they can get to is 51 points, so there's even a chance that they could be relegated on Saturday if results elsewhere go against them.

So yes you are right a draw isn't quite the end of the world, but it makes life very difficult for them.