All in good time Chief........a cashectomy upon such corpulent a body as Paddy Power is a delicate procedure and takes a bit of planning. Weights due to be announced on 12th Feb. Serious stat-crunching starts then.
All in good time Chief........a cashectomy upon such corpulent a body as Paddy Power is a delicate procedure and takes a bit of planning. Weights due to be announced on 12th Feb. Serious stat-crunching starts then.
TIDAL BAY 12-11-10; ALBERTAS RUN 12-11-08; IMPERIAL COMMANDER 12-11-06 ; QUITO DE LA ROQUE 9-11-05; WHAT A FRIEND 10-11-05; KATENKO 7-11-04; WEIRD AL 10-11-04; PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 10-11-03; QUEL ESPRIT 9-11-03; BIG FELLA THANKS 11-11-02; ROBERTO GOLDBACK 11-11-02; SEABASS 10-11-02; CALGARY BAY 10-11-01; CALL THE POLICE 10-11-01; PANDORAMA 10-11-01; ROI DU MEE 8-11-01; BALLABRIGGS 12-11-00; MIDNIGHT CHASE 11-11-00; SUNNYHILLBOY 10-11-00
TEAFORTHREE 9-10-13; ACROSS THE BAY; JOIN TOGETHER 8-10-12; PLANET OF SOUND 11-10-12; BOB LINGO 11-10-11; COLBERT STATION 9-10-11; LITTLE JOSH 11-10-11; TOFINO BAY 10-10-11; FORPADYDEPLASTERER 11-10-10; ON HIS OWN 9-10-10; JONCOL 10-10-09; LION NA BEARNAI 11-10-09; BALTHAZAR KING 9-10-08; THE PACKAGE 10-10-08; BOSTONS ANGEL 9-10-07; CAPPA BLEU 11-10-07; OSCAR TIME 12-10-07
ALWAYS WAINING 12-10-06; LAMBRO 8-10-06; QUINZ 9-10-06; TATENEN 9-10-06; BESHABAR 11-10-05; JESSIES DREAM 10-10-05; TREACLE 12-10-05; LOST GLORY 8-10-04; PROBLEMA TIC 7-10-04; SAINT ARE 7-10-04; SWING BILL 12-10-04; WYCK HILL 9-10-04; CHICAGO GREY 10-10-03; MAGNANIMITY 9-10-03; QUISCOVER FONTAINE 9-10-03; BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 10-10-02; FRISCO DEPOT 9-10-02; HARRY THE VIKING 8-10-02; RARE BOB 11-10-02; THE RAINBOW HUNTER 9-10-02
MR MOONSHINE 9-10-01; MUMBLES HEAD 12-10-00; PEARLYSTEPS 10-10-00; AURORAS ENCORE 11-9-13; NINETIETH MINUTE 10-9-13; ALFIE SHERRIN 10-9-12; TARQUINIUS 10-9-12; MATUHI 10-9-11; MISTER HYDE 8-9-11; ANY CURRENCY 10-9-10; CROSS APPEAL 7-9-10; TARTAK 10-9-10; MAJOR MALARKEY 10-9-09; POKER DE SIVOLA 10-9-09; SUMMERY JUSTICE; BACKSTAGE 11-9-08; SOLL 8-9-08; ROMANESCO; SHAKERVILZ 10-9-07; VIKING BLOND 8-9-07; CLOUDY LANE 13-9-06; OUTLAW PETE 9-9-06; FABALU 11-9-05; PENTIFFIC 10-9-04; ODYSSEAS 10-9-03; GULLIBLE GORDON 10-9-02; MORTIMERS CROSS 12-9-02
Just for clarity, i'm assuming TIDAL BAY 12-11-10 , means 12 years old carrying 11 stone 10 ? The GN you would think would be won by a younger horse - although no doubt Peanuts will have that as one of his formulae within his stats analysis.
Just for clarity, i'm assuming TIDAL BAY 12-11-10 , means 12 years old carrying 11 stone 10 ? The GN you would think would be won by a younger horse - although no doubt Peanuts will have that as one of his formulae within his stats analysis.
Correct. Hello Bud has had a couple of great spins at 12 and 13 though.
OK folks. The model has been tweaked, the weights have been unveiled and a first-cut of the stats has been completed for the 2013 GN, to be run over 4 miles 3½ furlongs for the first time. Most of you are familiar with this weird little fetish of mine that keeps me poring over the specs of dozens of GN entries, a database of 282 GN runners since 1988 and a supersized spreadsheet from February to early April every year; so I won’t bore you with the usual guff as to how it works. If anyone is sad enough to want to know I’ll happily explain. Just remember, while my GN model’s done a reasonable job for me over the last 7 years, as I caution every year, this could be the time that the whole shebang simply careers off the road and bursts into flames; so please don’t raid the wife’s Xmas kitty for some stake-money. So, which horses have the career profiles best-suited to win the 2013 GN? Well, there are several candidates on the radar screen that are potentially backable propositions but, as usual, for most of them how they perform in their GN preps during the next 53 days will determine whether their pre-race profile is that of a Win Candidate or falls short. For some of them, ground conditions on the big day will also be significant to their chances and, of course, it’s also possible that others improve their stats dramatically to thrust them into the picture, as Sunnyhillboy did last year. However, there is already one stand-out candidate for victory on 6 April whose stats are sufficiently strong on both good and soft ground that, providing he lines up in good health on the big day, regardless of what he does in his prep race(s) beforehand and whatever the going, he is a certainty to be one of my model’s selections. It is current co-5th favourite……………………..TEAFORTHREE. T43’s profile: • Stamina on show with close 2nd (0.5 length) in Welsh National in December on Heavy going carrying 11.03 (a commendable effort to contend with 11.00+ in the WN). Despite the often different ground conditions, there’s a strong correlation between GN and Welsh National success over the years, due to common demands upon stamina and jumping. In the last 25 years, previous winners of (or placed horses in) the Welsh National account for 8 GN winners [Rhyme n Reason (1988), Party Politics (1992), Miinnehoma (1993), Earth Summit (1998), Bindaree (2002), Hedgehunter (2005), Silver Birch (2007) and Mon Mome (2009)] and 8 placings 2nd~4th in the GN. T43 is indeed well suited by “cut” (3 wins or near-misses from 4 chases on soft~heavy) but it’s far from sufficient for GN success to have performed well in the Chepstow marathon in the mud; as Dream Alliance and Giles Cross attest. • Importantly, T43 acts on a sound surface, including over an extreme trip and at a clip. He won the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at last year’s Festival, carrying 11.06 to win in a very respectable time for the Good (GS) official going, staying on well up the hill (his sire is Oscar who also sired Oscar Time [close 2nds in the GN on quick ground and on heavy in the Irish National] and his dam-sire is Strong Gale whose progeny tended to like “top-of-the-ground”). • Consistent performer over fences. He’s yet to run over the GN course (18 of last 23 winners were first-timers) but to date he’s been reliably competitive and a good jumper. In 9 chases he has a 66.7% Win & Place ratio and is yet to F or UR (note that 8 of his chases have been at the stiff jumping tracks Chepstow, Cheltenham and Newbury). He’s evidently also comfortable in big fields and likes to race prominently; always a positive in the GN as it reduces the risk of traffic problems. • 9 years of age and allotted a weight of 10.13, on the stats T43 is pretty much the perfect package for the GN. • Though McCoy has ridden him in 6 of his chases (his post-WN comments about T43’s suitability for the GN were very positive), he won’t be available to ride him in the GN but T43 is thoroughly genuine and it seems that the capable Nick Scholfield will take the ride in his preps and at Aintree. Not a significant issue. T43 is currently co-5th favourite at 20/1 ante-post (if backed now and he doesn’t run, the stake is lost); the price is not exactly a steal but, unlike some entries, the GN is his definite target. He has several entries for next Saturday, the more likely run being in the Grand National Trial at Haydock over 3½m in probably testing conditions against several GN rivals. My only requirement is that he comes back without injury but his run there could have a meaningful impact on his price – in respect of the Haydock winner, journos will no doubt observe that Neptune Collonges was a close 2nd in the GNT before his Aintree victory (in fact, despite the race name, there’s been little correlation with the GN over the years). If he misses Haydock, he may go to Fairyhouse for the Bobbyjo chase on 23 Feb and in any event it is said that he may have a final spin at the Festival before his tilt at the big one. I can’t advise on betting strategy – that would indeed require a crystal ball. For what it’s worth I’ve already backed him on Betfair and will turn that position around to back him each-way with the bookies when 5 places are widely offered). As I’ve said, if he arrives at Aintree fit and well on 6 April, he will be (according to my model) a must-have on the betting slip. I’ll expound on additional Win Candidates in due course, as the picture becomes clearer. Of those currently on or just off the radar screen there are inevitably some of the more fancied runners but there is also at least one funky outsider that I’m keeping a very close eye on. Watch this space.
Just for clarity, i'm assuming TIDAL BAY 12-11-10 , means 12 years old carrying 11 stone 10 ? The GN you would think would be won by a younger horse - although no doubt Peanuts will have that as one of his formulae within his stats analysis.
Age is certainly an important stat, among a shed load of others. Youth isn’t a particular benefit in the GN. What you don't want to be is 7 - the only red line eliminator in my model is for all 7 year-olds. The last 7 y-o winner was in 1940 and no 7 y-o has made the first 5 in the GN for at least 25 years. 8 is OK if the ground is decent but even so it takes a special 8 y-o to handle the unique occasion and demands of the GN and win. Only 2 have won in the last 25 years (the last was Bindaree in 2002, with Party Politics winning 10 years before - arguably there should have been a third when McKelvey was an unlucky close 2nd behind Silver Birch in 2007). A number of 8 year-olds have been placed over the years but all wins and places have been on ground no worse than GS. In the 5 soft~heavy GNs since 1988 (excl red Marauder) no 8 y-o has made the frame. The stamina demands are seemingly too great. 9, 10, 11 is certainly the sweet spot as regards age and provide most recent winners (7 of the last 8 winners were 9 or 10). Though 12 isn't too old to win it, there have only been 3 GN winners aged 12 since 1988, the last being Amberleigh House in 2004 and he was a tad lucky, coming from well back to pip Clan Royal, who wandered badly off the racing line after the last - jockey had lost his whip. Before him it was Royal Athlete in 1995 and Little Polveir in 1989. They are typically losing speed at 12 but stamina should still be a strength so softer ground tends to help, if only to keep the leaders within reach and the youngsters in their place. But the fact is that a lot depends on the individual horse. As ISLS says, Hello Bud ran a stormer to be 7th last year as a 14 y-o (and won the Becher Chase over the same fences last December – a fantastic win for the old warrior in his last race before retirement). As regards Tidal Bay and the stats, as top-weight and aged 12 he has it all to do. No top-weight has won since Red Rum in 1974. But compression of the weights is giving those at the top of the weights a genuine chance and the handicapper has given him a significant break relative to many of his rivals. For reasons other than that, however, he is very much one of those on my radar screen, though softer ground would certainly help...maybe he'll get it this year.
16s on Paddy Power. Their odds always seem a couple of points lower than everyone else.
They've gone 5 places for each way, like Bet365 so both are a bit lower than the rest.
Thought it was always 5 places for each way in the GN ?
Cheers Prez. The big firms (Ladbrokes, Hills) don't go to 5 places but most others do though usually not as early as this. Some even offer 6 places eventually.
Tidal Bay and Cappa Bleu put up by Racing Post. That's the kiss of death for my Cappa Bleu as Tom Segal of the RP is not very good when it comes to the jumps.
Peanuts - if I bet on a horse now (to get what seems a good price), do I lose my stake money if the horse is a non-runner? Something tells me I do, unlike footie where betting on a non-playing 'first goalscorer' results in a non-bet/stake refund. I'm just weighing up the best option as I am aware that many planned runners don't end up running! Please advise.
Yes you lose your stake as it is an ante post bet - I think VC are offering a free bet if your horse is NR though so effectively you get the stake back provided you "re-invest" it!
...........thanks ISLS...............on that basis, can't see whay anyone would want to risk any significant amount of cash so far in advance of the race given the (high?) risk/likelihood of withdrawals beforehand. Am I missing something here? What would Super-Clive do, I wonder?
...........thanks ISLS...............on that basis, can't see whay anyone would want to risk any significant amount of cash so far in advance of the race given the (high?) risk/likelihood of withdrawals beforehand. Am I missing something here? What would Super-Clive do, I wonder?
Because yesterday TF3 was 25/1 best. Today it is 20/1. Tomorrow it will probably be 16/1 and by the time the GN comes around it may be single figures. On the other hand, if you had taken say the 26 on Betfair, you could lay you stake off and have a free bet at no cost.
You often get much better odds ante-post, this is becasue the bookie factors in the chance that your horse won't run. Some will offer you a price "with a run" meaning that if your horse doesn't go you get your stake back, but these odds will be shorter. Ante-post can be very good, if you have been particually following one horse who you know is being prepared for a certain race when this is not necessarly common knowledege then you can get huge odds. You often hear people saying how they took 40-1 ante-post about a horse who maybe 8-1 on the day of the race. Great odds but they ran the risk of losing their stake.
Comments
Bravo Sir
TIDAL BAY 12-11-10; ALBERTAS RUN 12-11-08; IMPERIAL COMMANDER 12-11-06 ; QUITO DE LA ROQUE 9-11-05; WHAT A FRIEND 10-11-05; KATENKO 7-11-04; WEIRD AL 10-11-04; PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 10-11-03; QUEL ESPRIT 9-11-03; BIG FELLA THANKS 11-11-02; ROBERTO GOLDBACK 11-11-02; SEABASS 10-11-02; CALGARY BAY 10-11-01; CALL THE POLICE 10-11-01; PANDORAMA 10-11-01; ROI DU MEE 8-11-01; BALLABRIGGS 12-11-00; MIDNIGHT CHASE 11-11-00; SUNNYHILLBOY 10-11-00
TEAFORTHREE 9-10-13; ACROSS THE BAY; JOIN TOGETHER 8-10-12; PLANET OF SOUND 11-10-12; BOB LINGO 11-10-11; COLBERT STATION 9-10-11; LITTLE JOSH 11-10-11; TOFINO BAY 10-10-11; FORPADYDEPLASTERER 11-10-10; ON HIS OWN 9-10-10; JONCOL 10-10-09; LION NA BEARNAI 11-10-09; BALTHAZAR KING 9-10-08; THE PACKAGE 10-10-08; BOSTONS ANGEL 9-10-07; CAPPA BLEU 11-10-07; OSCAR TIME 12-10-07
ALWAYS WAINING 12-10-06; LAMBRO 8-10-06; QUINZ 9-10-06; TATENEN 9-10-06; BESHABAR 11-10-05; JESSIES DREAM 10-10-05; TREACLE 12-10-05; LOST GLORY 8-10-04; PROBLEMA TIC 7-10-04; SAINT ARE 7-10-04; SWING BILL 12-10-04; WYCK HILL 9-10-04; CHICAGO GREY 10-10-03; MAGNANIMITY 9-10-03; QUISCOVER FONTAINE 9-10-03; BECAUSEICOULDNTSEE 10-10-02; FRISCO DEPOT 9-10-02; HARRY THE VIKING 8-10-02; RARE BOB 11-10-02; THE RAINBOW HUNTER 9-10-02
MR MOONSHINE 9-10-01; MUMBLES HEAD 12-10-00; PEARLYSTEPS 10-10-00; AURORAS ENCORE 11-9-13; NINETIETH MINUTE 10-9-13; ALFIE SHERRIN 10-9-12; TARQUINIUS 10-9-12; MATUHI 10-9-11; MISTER HYDE 8-9-11; ANY CURRENCY 10-9-10; CROSS APPEAL 7-9-10; TARTAK 10-9-10; MAJOR MALARKEY 10-9-09; POKER DE SIVOLA 10-9-09; SUMMERY JUSTICE; BACKSTAGE 11-9-08; SOLL 8-9-08; ROMANESCO; SHAKERVILZ 10-9-07; VIKING BLOND 8-9-07; CLOUDY LANE 13-9-06; OUTLAW PETE 9-9-06; FABALU 11-9-05; PENTIFFIC 10-9-04; ODYSSEAS 10-9-03; GULLIBLE GORDON 10-9-02; MORTIMERS CROSS 12-9-02
Off 10-7 (with Tidal Bay sure to run) and Tidal Bay sure to run, that makes him 3lb lower than last year.
The GN you would think would be won by a younger horse - although no doubt Peanuts will have that as one of his formulae within his stats analysis.
Cappa Bleu going off a good weight
Most of you are familiar with this weird little fetish of mine that keeps me poring over the specs of dozens of GN entries, a database of 282 GN runners since 1988 and a supersized spreadsheet from February to early April every year; so I won’t bore you with the usual guff as to how it works. If anyone is sad enough to want to know I’ll happily explain.
Just remember, while my GN model’s done a reasonable job for me over the last 7 years, as I caution every year, this could be the time that the whole shebang simply careers off the road and bursts into flames; so please don’t raid the wife’s Xmas kitty for some stake-money.
So, which horses have the career profiles best-suited to win the 2013 GN?
Well, there are several candidates on the radar screen that are potentially backable propositions but, as usual, for most of them how they perform in their GN preps during the next 53 days will determine whether their pre-race profile is that of a Win Candidate or falls short. For some of them, ground conditions on the big day will also be significant to their chances and, of course, it’s also possible that others improve their stats dramatically to thrust them into the picture, as Sunnyhillboy did last year.
However, there is already one stand-out candidate for victory on 6 April whose stats are sufficiently strong on both good and soft ground that, providing he lines up in good health on the big day, regardless of what he does in his prep race(s) beforehand and whatever the going, he is a certainty to be one of my model’s selections. It is current co-5th favourite……………………..TEAFORTHREE.
T43’s profile:
• Stamina on show with close 2nd (0.5 length) in Welsh National in December on Heavy going carrying 11.03 (a commendable effort to contend with 11.00+ in the WN). Despite the often different ground conditions, there’s a strong correlation between GN and Welsh National success over the years, due to common demands upon stamina and jumping. In the last 25 years, previous winners of (or placed horses in) the Welsh National account for 8 GN winners [Rhyme n Reason (1988), Party Politics (1992), Miinnehoma (1993), Earth Summit (1998), Bindaree (2002), Hedgehunter (2005), Silver Birch (2007) and Mon Mome (2009)] and 8 placings 2nd~4th in the GN. T43 is indeed well suited by “cut” (3 wins or near-misses from 4 chases on soft~heavy) but it’s far from sufficient for GN success to have performed well in the Chepstow marathon in the mud; as Dream Alliance and Giles Cross attest.
• Importantly, T43 acts on a sound surface, including over an extreme trip and at a clip. He won the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at last year’s Festival, carrying 11.06 to win in a very respectable time for the Good (GS) official going, staying on well up the hill (his sire is Oscar who also sired Oscar Time [close 2nds in the GN on quick ground and on heavy in the Irish National] and his dam-sire is Strong Gale whose progeny tended to like “top-of-the-ground”).
• Consistent performer over fences. He’s yet to run over the GN course (18 of last 23 winners were first-timers) but to date he’s been reliably competitive and a good jumper. In 9 chases he has a 66.7% Win & Place ratio and is yet to F or UR (note that 8 of his chases have been at the stiff jumping tracks Chepstow, Cheltenham and Newbury). He’s evidently also comfortable in big fields and likes to race prominently; always a positive in the GN as it reduces the risk of traffic problems.
• 9 years of age and allotted a weight of 10.13, on the stats T43 is pretty much the perfect package for the GN.
• Though McCoy has ridden him in 6 of his chases (his post-WN comments about T43’s suitability for the GN were very positive), he won’t be available to ride him in the GN but T43 is thoroughly genuine and it seems that the capable Nick Scholfield will take the ride in his preps and at Aintree. Not a significant issue.
T43 is currently co-5th favourite at 20/1 ante-post (if backed now and he doesn’t run, the stake is lost); the price is not exactly a steal but, unlike some entries, the GN is his definite target. He has several entries for next Saturday, the more likely run being in the Grand National Trial at Haydock over 3½m in probably testing conditions against several GN rivals. My only requirement is that he comes back without injury but his run there could have a meaningful impact on his price – in respect of the Haydock winner, journos will no doubt observe that Neptune Collonges was a close 2nd in the GNT before his Aintree victory (in fact, despite the race name, there’s been little correlation with the GN over the years). If he misses Haydock, he may go to Fairyhouse for the Bobbyjo chase on 23 Feb and in any event it is said that he may have a final spin at the Festival before his tilt at the big one.
I can’t advise on betting strategy – that would indeed require a crystal ball. For what it’s worth I’ve already backed him on Betfair and will turn that position around to back him each-way with the bookies when 5 places are widely offered). As I’ve said, if he arrives at Aintree fit and well on 6 April, he will be (according to my model) a must-have on the betting slip.
I’ll expound on additional Win Candidates in due course, as the picture becomes clearer. Of those currently on or just off the radar screen there are inevitably some of the more fancied runners but there is also at least one funky outsider that I’m keeping a very close eye on.
Watch this space.
Youth isn’t a particular benefit in the GN.
What you don't want to be is 7 - the only red line eliminator in my model is for all 7 year-olds. The last 7 y-o winner was in 1940 and no 7 y-o has made the first 5 in the GN for at least 25 years.
8 is OK if the ground is decent but even so it takes a special 8 y-o to handle the unique occasion and demands of the GN and win. Only 2 have won in the last 25 years (the last was Bindaree in 2002, with Party Politics winning 10 years before - arguably there should have been a third when McKelvey was an unlucky close 2nd behind Silver Birch in 2007). A number of 8 year-olds have been placed over the years but all wins and places have been on ground no worse than GS. In the 5 soft~heavy GNs since 1988 (excl red Marauder) no 8 y-o has made the frame. The stamina demands are seemingly too great.
9, 10, 11 is certainly the sweet spot as regards age and provide most recent winners (7 of the last 8 winners were 9 or 10).
Though 12 isn't too old to win it, there have only been 3 GN winners aged 12 since 1988, the last being Amberleigh House in 2004 and he was a tad lucky, coming from well back to pip Clan Royal, who wandered badly off the racing line after the last - jockey had lost his whip. Before him it was Royal Athlete in 1995 and Little Polveir in 1989.
They are typically losing speed at 12 but stamina should still be a strength so softer ground tends to help, if only to keep the leaders within reach and the youngsters in their place.
But the fact is that a lot depends on the individual horse. As ISLS says, Hello Bud ran a stormer to be 7th last year as a 14 y-o (and won the Becher Chase over the same fences last December – a fantastic win for the old warrior in his last race before retirement).
As regards Tidal Bay and the stats, as top-weight and aged 12 he has it all to do. No top-weight has won since Red Rum in 1974. But compression of the weights is giving those at the top of the weights a genuine chance and the handicapper has given him a significant break relative to many of his rivals. For reasons other than that, however, he is very much one of those on my radar screen, though softer ground would certainly help...maybe he'll get it this year.
That's the chance you take.
Ante-post can be very good, if you have been particually following one horse who you know is being prepared for a certain race when this is not necessarly common knowledege then you can get huge odds. You often hear people saying how they took 40-1 ante-post about a horse who maybe 8-1 on the day of the race. Great odds but they ran the risk of losing their stake.