According to Oddschecker, only 1 bookie at 18s for T43 now (SkyBet). Most of the rest at 16s. Stan James went NRNB over the weekend and joined today by Hills. Still only Bet365 and PP paying 5 e/w places. Prices shortening for several of them but no doubt the big move will be behind either Colbert Station or Sunnyhillboy when AP decides which he'll ride. Maguire has opted to ride Ballabriggs rather than Across The Bay or Weird Al. No surprise there. 12 days to go and the AccuWeather forecast showing some precipitation from time to time over next 12 days but nothing major. However, daytime "high" temps staying below double figs (only 6 degs on 6 Apr) and -1 at night during the meeting. Only my estimate but may be that ground could be similar to Cheltenham, c. mixture of Good-to-Soft & Soft. Should be getting the first Turftrax reading's shortly but whatever it indicates, need to see how it rides in the Foxhunters.
Done all your suggestions peanuts. T43 to win @ 18 Cappa bleu to win @ 15 Swing bill to win @ 220 place @ 32 Tofino bay to win @ 42 place @ 9.6 Tarquinius to win @ 193 place 26
All done on betfair antepost so only 4 places and no nrnb. Adjusted stakes so only need 1 to come in for an overall winning return.
He's got decent place potential PROVIDING it comes up Soft or worse, with 5th best stat-score on that going (no better than 10th on better), though would need a bit of a catastrophe to occur to the 4 ahead to come home in front (model rates him 35L behind T43 on Soft~Heavy but of course it's logical that they'd be more strung out in testing conditions and that could easily be in the money). Betfair is tempting at c200 for a win but only 4 places for Betfair Place market and I have to have the 5th place for him. Just waiting/hoping that one of those at 100/1 go 5 places before they drop his price (a drop more rain before 6 April wouldn't hurt).
Going description from Aintree today. Good-to-Soft. AccuWeather's forecast changes every day. Milder temps next week, cloudy, occasional rain. Could be different again tomorrow.
As AA reported, Tofino Bay has taken a significant walk in the Betfair market, suggesting that he may not run. If he doesn’t, that would leave me with the original 3, T43, Cappa Bleu and Swing Bill, as the model’s Win Selections, applicable to any going. Next in the stat-scores on Soft~Heavy ground, but some way behind T43, is my long-shot Place Selection on Soft or worse, Tarquinius. What to do about Tofino Bay’s possible absence, particularly if the going is better than Soft (which weather forecasts now suggest is likely)? What I wouldn’t do is add a 4th Win Selection, mainly because there isn’t one. As mentioned in my original post on the final selections, on Good ground (incl both GF and GS), below the top 3 in stat score were (on equal stat scores) Ballabriggs, Join Together and Tofino Bay. I chose to promote TB to Win Selection because of doubt over the penalty applied by the model to his novice status. BB (25/1) and JT (20/1) remain capable of big runs (and indeed of winning if misfortune befalls the top 3) but the model still suggests “no cigar” for either of them and, since there is no reason to think their stat-scores are under-stated, at their prices now I wouldn’t want to dilute returns from one of the top 3 coming home in front, as the model predicts. Just below BB and JT in stat-scores (equivalent to about 5 lengths distance at the line) are 4 runners: On His Own (8/1), Seabass (11/1), Romanesco (50/1) and Major Malarkey (150/1). All 4 are joint 6th on Good ground. If I wouldn’t be inclined to add BB or JT to my ticket, I’m certainly wouldn’t back OHO or Seabass. Romanesco is perhaps more likely to run in either the Irish National or the Topham. So, anticipating TB’s absence and taking advantage of BetVictor’s best-in-the-market price with 6 e/w places, I’ve added to my betting slip as a Good ground long-shot Place candidate (a “Good-ground Tarquinius”):
MAJOR MALARKEY (150/1 with BetVictor – 6 places and NRNB).
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE – if you follow me, do get the 6 places and NRNB offered by BetVictor.
What does MM have going for him? Principally, an excellent record over extreme trips on decent going. Though he won a weak-ish chase on Soft over 3.75m in December, he doesn’t like soft ground; hence some pretty ordinary performances this season and his recent PU on Heavy in the Midlands National. His last run on decent ground was last season’s Midlands National over 4.25m when he was a strong 2nd (0.75L) and he has other good form at beyond 3.5m on Good or quickish-Good-to-Soft (which is what we may get) – 4 strong performances in 5 runs beyond 3.5m when on Gd or GS (3 of those last season). Don’t get me wrong, his stat-score is well below that of the top 3 but it is absolutely consistent with a big run and grabbing a place and, despite probably running 1lb out-of-the-handicap, his price of 150/1 for 6 e/w places is (IMHO) ridiculously too big. At that price, he requires such a small stake that I’d be ecstatic if TB still ran because backing MM won’t meaningfully dilute returns. For Tarquinius the softer the going the better but for MM the quicker the better; I will take the risk on one or other running a big race on Good-to-Soft – Tarquinius more likely to do so if it is has meaningful Soft patches, MM if it rides no worse than GS. As with Tarquinius, MM does need a few to come out to get a run but it looks increasingly promising that he will line up. So, the final betting slip from the model is:
Win Selections on all Going (all e/w NRNB): TEAFFORTHREE CAPPA BLEU SWING BILL [TOFINO BAY]
Place Selections to cover Soft and Good Going: TARQUINIUS (100/1 e/w 6 places and NRNB) MAJOR MALARKEY (150/1 e/w 6 places and NRNB)
I think BetVictor is 6 places e/w 'Ante Post' and only introduces the NRNB offer on the day of the race (6th April)
They have a cleverly worded description which doesn't make it very clear: 'Aintree - Ante Post The Grand National 2013 (6 Places) - Non Runner No Bet Sat 06 Apr'
However on the betslip it states that it is an ante post bet rather than a NRNB.
Hmm, think I'll call them. See what you mean but down the bottom of the page of GN prices on their website it says "Non Runner No Bet - EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6". Will double check.
Spoke to them and they assured me it is definitely Non Runner No Bet. I pointed out that it says Ante Post in a rather uphelpful way but the bloke was adamant all bets on the GN are now NRNB & 6 e/w places.
Spoke to them and they assured me it is definitely Non Runner No Bet. I pointed out that it says Ante Post in a rather uphelpful way but the bloke was adamant all bets on the GN are now NRNB & 6 e/w places.
Good spot LIG. Given the massive PR that the race carries, the last thing VC will want is the bad publicity of claims through IBAS for providing such an ambiguous banner. A call to the Racing Post would be sufficient for them to change their minds in any event.
Especially if one of Peanuts "rags" does win. Only us "blessed" followers would be on and it would be a massive winner for VC anyway!
Guardian reports Tofino Bay being aimed at a Limerick race....and with PdB, Beshabar and Magnanimity also definite or likely non-runner, goes on to say "that means Tarquinius, one of the more interesting outsiders, needs just 2 more to be withdrawn...to get a run". Also says Big Fella Thanks will go for the GN rather than the Topham if not too soft.
Comments
Stan James went NRNB over the weekend and joined today by Hills. Still only Bet365 and PP paying 5 e/w places.
Prices shortening for several of them but no doubt the big move will be behind either Colbert Station or Sunnyhillboy when AP decides which he'll ride.
Maguire has opted to ride Ballabriggs rather than Across The Bay or Weird Al. No surprise there.
12 days to go and the AccuWeather forecast showing some precipitation from time to time over next 12 days but nothing major. However, daytime "high" temps staying below double figs (only 6 degs on 6 Apr) and -1 at night during the meeting. Only my estimate but may be that ground could be similar to Cheltenham, c. mixture of Good-to-Soft & Soft. Should be getting the first Turftrax reading's shortly but whatever it indicates, need to see how it rides in the Foxhunters.
Boylesports now 5 places (still ante-post).
T43 to win @ 18
Cappa bleu to win @ 15
Swing bill to win @ 220 place @ 32
Tofino bay to win @ 42 place @ 9.6
Tarquinius to win @ 193 place 26
All done on betfair antepost so only 4 places and no nrnb.
Adjusted stakes so only need 1 to come in for an overall winning return.
Betfair is tempting at c200 for a win but only 4 places for Betfair Place market and I have to have the 5th place for him. Just waiting/hoping that one of those at 100/1 go 5 places before they drop his price (a drop more rain before 6 April wouldn't hurt).
Snapped up Tarquinius e/w at 100/1 for 6 places.
As regards my selections, they are now:
T43 14/1
Cappa Bleu 11/1
Tofino Bay 33/1
Swing Bill 80/1
AccuWeather's forecast changes every day. Milder temps next week, cloudy, occasional rain. Could be different again tomorrow.
Prince De Beauchene rumoured to be out with stress fracture.......
</blockquote>
Confirmed by Willie Mullins.......2 years running for PdB
Next in the stat-scores on Soft~Heavy ground, but some way behind T43, is my long-shot Place Selection on Soft or worse, Tarquinius.
What to do about Tofino Bay’s possible absence, particularly if the going is better than Soft (which weather forecasts now suggest is likely)?
What I wouldn’t do is add a 4th Win Selection, mainly because there isn’t one.
As mentioned in my original post on the final selections, on Good ground (incl both GF and GS), below the top 3 in stat score were (on equal stat scores) Ballabriggs, Join Together and Tofino Bay. I chose to promote TB to Win Selection because of doubt over the penalty applied by the model to his novice status.
BB (25/1) and JT (20/1) remain capable of big runs (and indeed of winning if misfortune befalls the top 3) but the model still suggests “no cigar” for either of them and, since there is no reason to think their stat-scores are under-stated, at their prices now I wouldn’t want to dilute returns from one of the top 3 coming home in front, as the model predicts.
Just below BB and JT in stat-scores (equivalent to about 5 lengths distance at the line) are 4 runners: On His Own (8/1), Seabass (11/1), Romanesco (50/1) and Major Malarkey (150/1). All 4 are joint 6th on Good ground.
If I wouldn’t be inclined to add BB or JT to my ticket, I’m certainly wouldn’t back OHO or Seabass. Romanesco is perhaps more likely to run in either the Irish National or the Topham.
So, anticipating TB’s absence and taking advantage of BetVictor’s best-in-the-market price with 6 e/w places, I’ve added to my betting slip as a Good ground long-shot Place candidate (a “Good-ground Tarquinius”):
MAJOR MALARKEY (150/1 with BetVictor – 6 places and NRNB).
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE – if you follow me, do get the 6 places and NRNB offered by BetVictor.
What does MM have going for him? Principally, an excellent record over extreme trips on decent going. Though he won a weak-ish chase on Soft over 3.75m in December, he doesn’t like soft ground; hence some pretty ordinary performances this season and his recent PU on Heavy in the Midlands National. His last run on decent ground was last season’s Midlands National over 4.25m when he was a strong 2nd (0.75L) and he has other good form at beyond 3.5m on Good or quickish-Good-to-Soft (which is what we may get) – 4 strong performances in 5 runs beyond 3.5m when on Gd or GS (3 of those last season).
Don’t get me wrong, his stat-score is well below that of the top 3 but it is absolutely consistent with a big run and grabbing a place and, despite probably running 1lb out-of-the-handicap, his price of 150/1 for 6 e/w places is (IMHO) ridiculously too big. At that price, he requires such a small stake that I’d be ecstatic if TB still ran because backing MM won’t meaningfully dilute returns.
For Tarquinius the softer the going the better but for MM the quicker the better; I will take the risk on one or other running a big race on Good-to-Soft – Tarquinius more likely to do so if it is has meaningful Soft patches, MM if it rides no worse than GS.
As with Tarquinius, MM does need a few to come out to get a run but it looks increasingly promising that he will line up.
So, the final betting slip from the model is:
Win Selections on all Going (all e/w NRNB):
TEAFFORTHREE
CAPPA BLEU
SWING BILL
[TOFINO BAY]
Place Selections to cover Soft and Good Going:
TARQUINIUS (100/1 e/w 6 places and NRNB)
MAJOR MALARKEY (150/1 e/w 6 places and NRNB)
They have a cleverly worded description which doesn't make it very clear: 'Aintree - Ante Post The Grand National 2013 (6 Places) - Non Runner No Bet Sat 06 Apr'
However on the betslip it states that it is an ante post bet rather than a NRNB.
Might be wrong, but that is how it reads to me.
"We Are Paying 6 PLACES On The 2013 John Smith's Aintree Grand National!
Applies to bets placed from 1pm GMT, Tuesday 26th March 2013"
Then underneath:
"Aintree - Ante Post The Grand National 2013 (6 Places) - Non Runner No Bet Sat 06 Apr"
Oddschecker clearly has "NRNB" ticked for them though.
Especially if one of Peanuts "rags" does win. Only us "blessed" followers would be on and it would be a massive winner for VC anyway!
Also says Big Fella Thanks will go for the GN rather than the Topham if not too soft.