And as if to rub salt in the wounds Carrickboy wins having been pulled up last time - and I was on the more fancied Venetia Williams stablemate. Which, of course, was pulled up!
Bet365 are now both Non-Runner No Bet and paying 5 places for e/w if anyone is interested. BetVictor go NRNB from tomorrow (still 4 places I think). Paddy Power is 5 places but still ante-post. Forfeit stage on Tuesday, after which I’ll do a further update on my model’s assessment of the stats. The weights would rise at least another 2lbs if Albertas Run (PU in the Ryanair – his first run of the season after injury) is scratched (4lbs+ if Imperial Commander also defected). That would materially, adversely affect the stat-profiles of several towards the top of the handicap (incl Prince De Beauchene, Seabass and Ballabriggs) but not significantly those of Teaforthree or Cappa Bleu, whose Winning Profiles are also indifferent to going. If you're persuaded to back either or both, T43 is 18/1 with Bet365 (22/1 with Totesport & BetFred 4 places & ante-post) and Cappa Bleu is 14/1 with bet365 (16/1 Ladbrokes - 4 places & ante-post) As things stand post-Cheltenham, only these two are definite selections for my model (Sunnyhillboy's failure to have a post-weights prep rules him out stats-wise). Weights and going will determine any others, though Swing Bill looks likely to join T43 and CB, assuming he is fit and well. Weather forecast for Liverpool to 6 April on AccuWeather looks unsettled!
Peanuts, What do you make of Balthazar King. I found it interesting that he pulled out of the rerun Cross Country (defending the title) at Cheltenham and now heads straight to aintree.
thought you system wouldn't like his previous fall but that "F" is suspect as he went wrong course on cross country and run through rails.
The model doesn't regard that incident as a Fall, definitely Carried Out or at worst Pilot Error so no penalty for that (I remember watching it - a whole load of them went the wrong way or got carried out). The model actually gives him a credit for his jumping, as he hasn't had an F or UR for over 3 years (and that was over hurdles). His other credit is for his Festival XC win over 3m7f last season, which ticks a stamina box. I had a debate on last year's GN thread about the worth of XC races (the model strongly fancied Scots Irish for last year's GN - sadly he broke a leg in the Festival XC) as they are often run at just a moderate pace but the model treats the Festival XC as a genuine stamina test since, without fail, it is highly competitive. Silver Birch was a close 2nd in it prior to his 2007 GN victory though, importantly, he also had victories in the Welsh National and in the Becher Chase to his name, both in testing conditions. These scored him a bigger stamina (and of course a GN fence) credit.
In BK's case, his only success at 3.5m+ has come in two XCs - his 2 runs over conventional fences at 28f+ have yielded 2 PUs on going that should have suited (one of these at Cheltenham where he has had success over shorter and the other in the 2011 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3.75m). Admittedly they were both higher class chases than he was used to but he was reasonably fancied in both races (8/1 in the old "Whitbread"). The model doesn't penalise him for these failures, it's just that he doesn't register any other credits.
In fact, he doesn't have a lot of negatives - but there is one. My impression of Hobbs' GN runners over the years is that he likes to take them to Aintree fresh. Of course every horse is different but, purely from a GN stats perspective, the absence of a reasonably recent prep and/or a light campaign are negatives.
BK won't have had a run for 141 days when he lines up at Aintree and has had only 2 runs all season. That lack of racing and being scratched from the XC last week are entirely understandable, given that he doesn't like soft ground, but the winner of every GN since at least 1988 (maybe further back) had a prep not more than 56 days prior. Only 3 of 24 horses placed within 10L of the GN winners had not done likewise.
The average number of runs in the season, prior to Aintree, for those GN winners was over 5 (if he were to win, BK would match Miinnehoma with the lowest number but Miinnehoma's 2 runs were 23 and 35 days before the big day).
This isn't a red line negative for BK but, combined with only modest positives, from a stats-perspective my model thinks he could run nicely but is unlikely to figure at the sharp end of the race.
Having said all that, if you really fancy him please don't let me put you off backing him. My model could easily be horribly wrong.
Let me know if you'd like the model's views on any other entries. Happy to comment.
Hi Peanuts, does your model rule out Sunnyhill boy completely? Added to that has it ever happened that a runner up has come back to win in a following year (maybe Red Rum did?).
For me BK is right age, weight, jumps well, has run in decent enough events, does most of his winning left handed courses and looks like he will stay. I feel ground is an issue for him but as long as its Good/Soft or better I'm happy with the ante post prices i have for BK have also backed your selection T43.
I like the detail you put on the site for the GN and always like to get on a horse early as prices can reduce rapidly in the last few days. Last year i backed Seabass @ prices around 50-1 then laid it back on the day @ 9-1 for a free bet. Hopefully will do the same with the 2 above this year.
For me BK is right age, weight, jumps well, has run in decent enough events, does most of his winning left handed courses and looks like he will stay. I feel ground is an issue for him but as long as its Good/Soft or better I'm happy with the ante post prices i have for BK have also backed your selection T43.
I like the detail you put on the site for the GN and always like to get on a horse early as prices can reduce rapidly in the last few days. Last year i backed Seabass @ prices around 50-1 then laid it back on the day @ 9-1 for a free bet. Hopefully will do the same with the 2 above this year.
Nice one on Seabass last year and best of luck with BK and T43. If Richard Johnson is on board BK he will be looking to break his current 16-ride duck in the GN (a record). Nearly did it with Whats Up Boys in 2002. Maybe you'll get a major shortening of BK's price and another free bet if he opts for Quinz ;o)
Hi Peanuts, does your model rule out Sunnyhill boy completely? Added to that has it ever happened that a runner up has come back to win in a following year (maybe Red Rum did?).
Will get back to you later Chief. Just going to have some dinner!
Mmmm...a lovely steak and kidney suet pudding...delicious........(and no horse jokes please.........it was the genuine article from Tablehurst Farm). Hot news is that Sporting Life quotes Mick Meagher (Racing Manager to Trevor Hemmings) that Albertas Run will NOT run in the GN. That means all weights go up another 2lbs at least (more if Imperial Commander is also scratched), e.g it puts Prince De Beauchene on at least 11.07, Seabass 11.06+, Ballabriggs & Sunnyhillboy11.04+. Also quotes Dessie Hughes as recommending to Michael O'Leary that Tofino Bay takes his chance at Aintree.
Hi Peanuts, does your model rule out Sunnyhill boy completely? Added to that has it ever happened that a runner up has come back to win in a following year (maybe Red Rum did?).
Not completely but the lack of a prep (84 days since last run - please see comments on lack of a prep re Balthazar King above) has tipped the balance of his stats against a repeat of anything approaching last year, even on his preferred good ground. Combined with a significant weight increase (with 10.05, he was 10lbs well-in on OR last year after his KM win and, with tonight's news, he will carry at least 13lbs more this time) and 2 canters around over hurdles (PU and 23L 5th) being his only outings this season, for my model the negatives outweigh his proven stamina credentials and ability over the fences. Every GN winner since 1988 has won or been placed (and <5L of the winner) in the season, prior to the big day. Same goes for all but 2 of the 24 horses finishing <10L of the GN winner. Its common now for returning winners (I still think of him as a winner last time!) or near-things to have a light campaign and each of Comply or Die (12L 2nd), Dont Push It (14L 3rd) and Ballabriggs (18L 6th) ran well in their returns after such; though all had had preps within 42 days of the big day and none had a hike as big as 13lbs to contend with. On a subjective note, you have to be a little concerned about him scoping dirty (if that was the true reason for him missing the Gold Cup) last week. That aside, he could follow in the hoof-prints of COD and DPI and grab a place but the stats suggest other "returners" (particularly Cappa Bleu) and several GN debutants have better chances of victory. Other GN runners-up doing well in subsequent year(s): Red Rum's GN record was 1/1/2/2/1 (1973~77). More recently: Durham Edition 2/5/2 (1988~90) Suny Bay 2/2 (1997~8) Amberleigh House 3/WON (2003~04) Clan Royal 2/Carried Out (when leading by 6L at 2nd Bechers)/2 (2004~06) Interesting piece in tomorrow's Telegraph by J McGrath about Teaforthree's disappointing run at Haydock: QUOTE Back in February, Curtis sent her cracking staying chaser Teaforthree, to Haydock Park for the Betfred Grand National Trial. She had been in two minds about running him for several reasons and in the end he finished 10th, beaten 43 lengths. But, the advice is to put a line through the run. “He had plenty of excuses that day,” the Newport-based trainer pointed out. “He’d had such a hard run in the Welsh National previously and then nothing went according to plan at Haydock. The ground wasn’t ideal, he had plenty of weight and Haydock is just not a real jumpers’ track like it used to be in the past. “I know that A P McCoy, who had ridden the horse previously, and Ruby Walsh were both watching the race from Ascot, and they said to each other that he would have no chance,” she recalled. But the most relevant piece of information that Curtis took away from the trip to Haydock was that Teaforthree would not eat. “We went up the night before the race and he didn’t like it. He was not himself. He didn’t like the new surroundings,” she recalled. It was a valuable lesson learnt and the trainer will not be repeating the exercise when travelling to Aintree for the John Smith’s Grand National next month. “We’ll go up on the day of the National. We could leave here at 6am and be there at 10 without too much trouble, and he could still have his home comforts the night before,” she said. Nick Scholfield, who was aboard at Haydock, is to keep the ride on the staying chaser at Aintree and if he is back to the form he showed when pipped by Monbeg Dude in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow in January the rider should enjoy a great spin. UNQUOTE
Weight hike means Ballabriggs drops out of contention to win, according to my model. Tofino Bay, even with a first season novice stat-penalty, now looking rather interesting as a possible 4th selection. More anon.
Weight hike means Ballabriggs drops out of contention to win, according to my model. Tofino Bay, even with a first season novice stat-penalty, now looking rather interesting as a possible 4th selection. More anon.
So whose your third possible alongside t43 and capbl? I see Roi di mee is around 20-1 on odds checker and Quinto around 50-1.
Swing Bill (100/1), if the going is softer than Good. Must be e/w of course - 66/1 for 5 places. Given ordinary run at the Festival and 55L 10th last GN, his 5-place price could get longer rather than shorter over next couple of weeks as more firms go 5 places. Most bookies should start going Non Runner No Bet in next few days (only Bet365 and BetVictor today).
Commented on Roi Du Mee above. Quito De La Roque is a classy steed but, aside from the constant injury niggles, he will now carry at least 11.09. Other than Rummy, only one GN winner (Freebooter in 1950) has carried more than 11.07 since WWII. As you know, that's not an eliminator (some near-misses with big weights) but it's a big ask for a horse that has never raced beyond 25f. He also missed his prep (79 days since last run) and with weight that outweighs the positives of decent season form, unblemished jumping record and good strike rates. Model suggests potential for a reasonable show but not in the shake up.
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="JT">Really enjoying the analysis.
The only slight problem is, no model can cater for luck in the National ! </blockquote>
Absolutely. Or whether a debutant can handle the fences and occasion. That's why you have to have 3 or 4 on your ticket and, if the prices permit, e/w (5 places) [never had one so short as to not to make e/w viable - one place to break-even is my target, didn't quite make it last year]. It's a percentage, long run game; not trying to hit it out of the park - though nice when it happens ;o)
Another point on luck JT, while a GN winner certainly has to enjoy the absence of serious misfortune (which could befall any runner) and while there have been slightly "fortuitous" winners (most obviously Amberleigh House in 2004 when Clan Royal's jockey had dropped his whip 5 out and, when with a good lead, allowed his horse to wander badly off course before The Elbow) there are rarely "fluke" winners (on his stats, AH fully merited his GN victory). No doubt the list of honours would read very differently if all runners could somehow have been assured clear passage but, in recent times, only Red Marauder in 2001 would potentially fall into the category of "fluke" (when only 2 finished without re-mounting).
Going back to Sunnyhillboy briefly, to be fair to him, his 2 spins this season were on ground that he would not have liked. Nonetheless, the stats are the stats. One other subjective concern for him is that he did suffer a tendon injury during last year's GN which was serious enough to be described a potentially career-threatening and warranted an operation after the race. It certainly surprised me that he re-appeared on the track as early as November and he ran well enough on that return to suggest that the injury wasn't troubling him. However, that tendon will certainly be put to the test at Aintree, particularly if he gets his preferred quick ground.
Good point oldbloke. Certainly been a different winter to last year but the model is constructed from data from GNs going back to 1988 and every season and every GN has different characteristics. It will crash and burn some day (maybe this time) but there do appear to be stats that have on-going relevance to the unique nature of the GN.
...and, of course, it's highly possible that the 2013 GN will be a proper soft ground National! Haven't had one since 2006. Different formula for the stats applies to Soft~Heavy as I shall describe when I update shortly. Nonetheless, T43 and Cappa Bleu have Winning Stat-Profiles on any ground.
Quito De La Roque "highly unlikely" to run in the GN according to trainer. Not a definite NO but highly unlikely. Hike in weight rather than being unfit the reason.
Frisco Depot will not run according to the Bicester Advertiser!
RTE Sports reports Alfie Sherrin, The Package, Quito De La Roque, Albertas Run, Roi Du Mee, Midnight Chase, Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound & 8 others (presumably incl Frisco Depot) scratched today. Waiting on full list. 57 left in seemingly. Lion Na Bearnai in but struggling to be ready after injury.
Judging by Betfair market, Problema Tic, Summery Justice, Tartak & Odysseas are also out. Katenko and, sadly, both Matuhi and Jessies Dream would be the others.
If I ever meet you peanuts I will buy you a few cold ones. Your tips paid for a holiday and for my decking a couple of years ago. Not so great last year but it's not fall-proof (see what I did there) I've backed t43 and cb and I'm eyeing up my long shot now.
For what it's worth I only take an interest in the gold cup and the national as in my eyes they are the only races that seem to be honest... If you know what I mean
Comments
Forfeit stage on Tuesday, after which I’ll do a further update on my model’s assessment of the stats. The weights would rise at least another 2lbs if Albertas Run (PU in the Ryanair – his first run of the season after injury) is scratched (4lbs+ if Imperial Commander also defected). That would materially, adversely affect the stat-profiles of several towards the top of the handicap (incl Prince De Beauchene, Seabass and Ballabriggs) but not significantly those of Teaforthree or Cappa Bleu, whose Winning Profiles are also indifferent to going. If you're persuaded to back either or both, T43 is 18/1 with Bet365 (22/1 with Totesport & BetFred 4 places & ante-post) and Cappa Bleu is 14/1 with bet365 (16/1 Ladbrokes - 4 places & ante-post)
As things stand post-Cheltenham, only these two are definite selections for my model (Sunnyhillboy's failure to have a post-weights prep rules him out stats-wise). Weights and going will determine any others, though Swing Bill looks likely to join T43 and CB, assuming he is fit and well. Weather forecast for Liverpool to 6 April on AccuWeather looks unsettled!
thought you system wouldn't like his previous fall but that "F" is suspect as he went wrong course on cross country and run through rails.
His other credit is for his Festival XC win over 3m7f last season, which ticks a stamina box. I had a debate on last year's GN thread about the worth of XC races (the model strongly fancied Scots Irish for last year's GN - sadly he broke a leg in the Festival XC) as they are often run at just a moderate pace but the model treats the Festival XC as a genuine stamina test since, without fail, it is highly competitive. Silver Birch was a close 2nd in it prior to his 2007 GN victory though, importantly, he also had victories in the Welsh National and in the Becher Chase to his name, both in testing conditions. These scored him a bigger stamina (and of course a GN fence) credit.
In BK's case, his only success at 3.5m+ has come in two XCs - his 2 runs over conventional fences at 28f+ have yielded 2 PUs on going that should have suited (one of these at Cheltenham where he has had success over shorter and the other in the 2011 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3.75m). Admittedly they were both higher class chases than he was used to but he was reasonably fancied in both races (8/1 in the old "Whitbread"). The model doesn't penalise him for these failures, it's just that he doesn't register any other credits.
In fact, he doesn't have a lot of negatives - but there is one. My impression of Hobbs' GN runners over the years is that he likes to take them to Aintree fresh. Of course every horse is different but, purely from a GN stats perspective, the absence of a reasonably recent prep and/or a light campaign are negatives.
BK won't have had a run for 141 days when he lines up at Aintree and has had only 2 runs all season. That lack of racing and being scratched from the XC last week are entirely understandable, given that he doesn't like soft ground, but the winner of every GN since at least 1988 (maybe further back) had a prep not more than 56 days prior. Only 3 of 24 horses placed within 10L of the GN winners had not done likewise.
The average number of runs in the season, prior to Aintree, for those GN winners was over 5 (if he were to win, BK would match Miinnehoma with the lowest number but Miinnehoma's 2 runs were 23 and 35 days before the big day).
This isn't a red line negative for BK but, combined with only modest positives, from a stats-perspective my model thinks he could run nicely but is unlikely to figure at the sharp end of the race.
Having said all that, if you really fancy him please don't let me put you off backing him. My model could easily be horribly wrong.
Let me know if you'd like the model's views on any other entries. Happy to comment.
I like the detail you put on the site for the GN and always like to get on a horse early as prices can reduce rapidly in the last few days. Last year i backed Seabass @ prices around 50-1 then laid it back on the day @ 9-1 for a free bet. Hopefully will do the same with the 2 above this year.
If Richard Johnson is on board BK he will be looking to break his current 16-ride duck in the GN (a record). Nearly did it with Whats Up Boys in 2002. Maybe you'll get a major shortening of BK's price and another free bet if he opts for Quinz ;o)
Hot news is that Sporting Life quotes Mick Meagher (Racing Manager to Trevor Hemmings) that Albertas Run will NOT run in the GN. That means all weights go up another 2lbs at least (more if Imperial Commander is also scratched), e.g it puts Prince De Beauchene on at least 11.07, Seabass 11.06+, Ballabriggs & Sunnyhillboy11.04+.
Also quotes Dessie Hughes as recommending to Michael O'Leary that Tofino Bay takes his chance at Aintree. Not completely but the lack of a prep (84 days since last run - please see comments on lack of a prep re Balthazar King above) has tipped the balance of his stats against a repeat of anything approaching last year, even on his preferred good ground.
Combined with a significant weight increase (with 10.05, he was 10lbs well-in on OR last year after his KM win and, with tonight's news, he will carry at least 13lbs more this time) and 2 canters around over hurdles (PU and 23L 5th) being his only outings this season, for my model the negatives outweigh his proven stamina credentials and ability over the fences. Every GN winner since 1988 has won or been placed (and <5L of the winner) in the season, prior to the big day. Same goes for all but 2 of the 24 horses finishing <10L of the GN winner.
Its common now for returning winners (I still think of him as a winner last time!) or near-things to have a light campaign and each of Comply or Die (12L 2nd), Dont Push It (14L 3rd) and Ballabriggs (18L 6th) ran well in their returns after such; though all had had preps within 42 days of the big day and none had a hike as big as 13lbs to contend with. On a subjective note, you have to be a little concerned about him scoping dirty (if that was the true reason for him missing the Gold Cup) last week. That aside, he could follow in the hoof-prints of COD and DPI and grab a place but the stats suggest other "returners" (particularly Cappa Bleu) and several GN debutants have better chances of victory.
Other GN runners-up doing well in subsequent year(s):
Red Rum's GN record was 1/1/2/2/1 (1973~77).
More recently:
Durham Edition 2/5/2 (1988~90)
Suny Bay 2/2 (1997~8)
Amberleigh House 3/WON (2003~04)
Clan Royal 2/Carried Out (when leading by 6L at 2nd Bechers)/2 (2004~06)
Interesting piece in tomorrow's Telegraph by J McGrath about Teaforthree's disappointing run at Haydock:
QUOTE Back in February, Curtis sent her cracking staying chaser Teaforthree, to Haydock Park for the Betfred Grand National Trial. She had been in two minds about running him for several reasons and in the end he finished 10th, beaten 43 lengths. But, the advice is to put a line through the run. “He had plenty of excuses that day,” the Newport-based trainer pointed out. “He’d had such a hard run in the Welsh National previously and then nothing went according to plan at Haydock. The ground wasn’t ideal, he had plenty of weight and Haydock is just not a real jumpers’ track like it used to be in the past. “I know that A P McCoy, who had ridden the horse previously, and Ruby Walsh were both watching the race from Ascot, and they said to each other that he would have no chance,” she recalled. But the most relevant piece of information that Curtis took away from the trip to Haydock was that Teaforthree would not eat. “We went up the night before the race and he didn’t like it. He was not himself. He didn’t like the new surroundings,” she recalled. It was a valuable lesson learnt and the trainer will not be repeating the exercise when travelling to Aintree for the John Smith’s Grand National next month. “We’ll go up on the day of the National. We could leave here at 6am and be there at 10 without too much trouble, and he could still have his home comforts the night before,” she said. Nick Scholfield, who was aboard at Haydock, is to keep the ride on the staying chaser at Aintree and if he is back to the form he showed when pipped by Monbeg Dude in the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow in January the rider should enjoy a great spin. UNQUOTE
Weight hike means Ballabriggs drops out of contention to win, according to my model.
Tofino Bay, even with a first season novice stat-penalty, now looking rather interesting as a possible 4th selection. More anon.
I see Roi di mee is around 20-1 on odds checker and Quinto around 50-1.
Quito De La Roque is a classy steed but, aside from the constant injury niggles, he will now carry at least 11.09.
Other than Rummy, only one GN winner (Freebooter in 1950) has carried more than 11.07 since WWII. As you know, that's not an eliminator (some near-misses with big weights) but it's a big ask for a horse that has never raced beyond 25f. He also missed his prep (79 days since last run) and with weight that outweighs the positives of decent season form, unblemished jumping record and good strike rates. Model suggests potential for a reasonable show but not in the shake up.
The only slight problem is, no model can cater for luck in the National !
Will give a fuller update after today's scratchings are announced.
The only slight problem is, no model can cater for luck in the National ! </blockquote>
Absolutely. Or whether a debutant can handle the fences and occasion. That's why you have to have 3 or 4 on your ticket and, if the prices permit, e/w (5 places) [never had one so short as to not to make e/w viable - one place to break-even is my target, didn't quite make it last year]. It's a percentage, long run game; not trying to hit it out of the park - though nice when it happens ;o)
No doubt the list of honours would read very differently if all runners could somehow have been assured clear passage but, in recent times, only Red Marauder in 2001 would potentially fall into the category of "fluke" (when only 2 finished without re-mounting).
One other subjective concern for him is that he did suffer a tendon injury during last year's GN which was serious enough to be described a potentially career-threatening and warranted an operation after the race. It certainly surprised me that he re-appeared on the track as early as November and he ran well enough on that return to suggest that the injury wasn't troubling him. However, that tendon will certainly be put to the test at Aintree, particularly if he gets his preferred quick ground.
It will crash and burn some day (maybe this time) but there do appear to be stats that have on-going relevance to the unique nature of the GN.
Frisco Depot will not run according to the Bicester Advertiser!
For what it's worth I only take an interest in the gold cup and the national as in my eyes they are the only races that seem to be honest... If you know what I mean