Katenko had en emergency op for colic yesterday evening and has been scratched from the GC and GN. Nasty thing colic in horses - hopefully he'll be OK. One or two important GN preps this afternoon, particularly for Ballabriggs.
Peanuts - roughly when do you think you will be making your final selctions/telling us the winner? Cheers
Still some important preps to be run for some on the radar screen Chief. Also, a key issue for several is whether the weights go up again. They will rise 2lbs because of Tidal Bay’s defection and would rise at least another 2lbs if Albertas Run were scratched. He hasn’t run all season and didn’t go that well in a recent racecourse gallop so, although he’s due to seek a third Ryanair victory at The Festival and his owner would probably like him to run at Aintree (if only, perhaps, to keep the weight down for Ballabriggs), he is by no means a certain participant. If he were to defect it would have a significant, adverse effect on the stats of several candidates. Finally, of course, the going will be crucial to the chances of some. So, all in all, the complete Win Selections (according to my model) won’t be known until probably the week before the big day. However, two have completed their preps and their stats are sufficiently strong that, regardless of the going and of a possible rise in the weights, they are already Win Selections. As I said after the weights were announced, TEAFORTHREE (now best price 22/1 – Betfair Win 25) is a definite Win Selection on any going and even if the weights rise again (a rise would reduce his stat advantage but would not scupper his Winning Profile). I don’t like to identify a NAP because anything can happen in the GN (e.g. Synchronised last year) but the fact is that my model’s rating of T43 is (and should remain) the best in the field.
CAPPA BLEU ran a terrific prep at Ascot in Feb which gave his stats the boost necessary to give him a Winning Profile (understandably, that took his price down to current best 16/1 (Betfair Win 15.5) - shrewdies like Addick Addict are certainly on at much higher). The model rates his winning chance best on Good-to-Soft or better but he should still run a big race and at least be placed even on Soft. His stats are immune to a rise in the weights but, even with a rise and on good ground, his stat-score would still be lower than T43’s. CB’s main stats: • Handled the GN fences well last year on quick ground when a 12L 4th carrying 10.10. Handicap mark 2lbs lower this year and will carry 10.09 if the weights don’t rise again. • A fine 3rd 22L in the Welsh National on Heavy in 2011 carrying 11.03. Good correlation between Welsh and Aintree Nationals (as outlined in the T43 analysis). • Good consistency. In 9 chases under Rules he has been out of the frame only twice. His 2 wins include a strong 2009 Festival Foxhunters Chase – his first race under Rules. • 11 year-old, 49 days since last run (a fine staying-on 2nd in a Listed 3m chase at Ascot) consistent with a GN winner’s profile. T43 and CB are, respectively, certain and virtually-certain to appear on my betting slip.
Coming to yesterday’s racing:
BALLABRIGGS did just about enough (3rd 10L in a 3m Listed Chase at Kelso) to improve his stats to match those of Cappa Bleu and give him a Winning Profile on Good-to-Soft or better (he would not want it Soft or worse). The two are theoretically closely matched as regards treatment by the handicapper relative to last year’s result (CB came in 5.25L ahead of BB but was receiving 13lbs – he gets 7lbs this time). BB may be a selection by my model come the final analysis but not if there is any rise in the weights, which would lower BB’s stat-profile to Place rather than Win potential. As an aside, though he did enough yesterday to satisfy the stats, subjectively, I was less impressed with him than the journos seem to have been. He looked like the winner at the last but emptied markedly over the last 100 yards (some reports said that the front two quickened away from him – that’s not how I saw it). Of course, he would not be expected to be fully primed and the going was not ideal but he has won on Soft over 3m+ before (albeit in weaker company). To my mind, for a 12 year old with stamina credentials, he shouldn’t really have been tiring so badly before the line. Nonetheless, assuming nothing is amiss and the going at Aintree is decent, he’ll likely be a potent force come 6 April. Whether he will be one of my model’s Win selections, it is too early to say.
At Doncaster yesterday, JOIN TOGETHER PU’d in the Grimthorpe Chase for which he was favourite. He was very badly hampered by an early faller. Walsh tried to nurse him slowly back into the race from out the back of the field but to no avail. Assuming there was no physical injury (none as yet reported) it may be that the incident unsettled the 8 year-old – he can expect to encounter more than that by way of mishaps to dodge at Aintree. Regardless of the disappointing prep, owing mainly to a fine strong-finishing 2nd in the Becher Chase on heavy in December, his GN stats remain good for a strong run but place potential at best. Despite his Becher run, his chances would not be helped by Soft (8 year-olds have poor GN stats on Soft~Heavy).
Of the others on show yesterday:
BIG FELLA THANKS ran nicely again (2nd 5L in a Class 1 over 2.5m at Newbury) and is having a fine season. He has plenty of weight to carry at Aintree (at least 11.04 – 3lbs more than when finishing a legless 7th 2 years ago) and the trainer has indicated that the Topham may be preferred to the GN.
CALGARY BAY ran a stinker in the Grimthorpe on ground that should have suited and, having failed twice in the GN, has dismal stats.
MR MOONSHINE (6th 36L in the Grimthorpe), TARTAK (4th 19L in a veterans chase at Newbury), MORTIMERS CROSS (7th 60L in the same race) and FORPADYDEPLASTERER (6th 18L in an 18f hurdle at Leopardstown this afternoon) should not be troubling the Aintree judges, if they run.
As I’ve mentioned previously, there remains an interesting outsider if it is Good-to-Soft or softer but he is due to run at Cheltenham and needs to avoid any mishaps. More in due course.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, but what I meant was when will be the (rough) date when all of the runners are decided, all the prep has been done AND YOU TELL US THE WINNER! ;-)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, but what I meant was when will be the (rough) date when all of the runners are decided, all the prep has been done AND YOU TELL US THE WINNER! ;-)
Thanks Offy, in other words,cut the bullshit and just tell us when we can collect the winnings.!
Yeah, yeah, yeah, but what I meant was when will be the (rough) date when all of the runners are decided, all the prep has been done AND YOU TELL US THE WINNER! ;-)
Thanks Offy, in other words,cut the bullshit and just tell us when we can collect the winnings.!
Ha ha, not quite what I meant. Was just looking for something of a timetable between now and the off.
All that stuff is fascinating, even though I have little idea what it all means!
No system for Cheltenham I'm afraid so best hope for my Festival tips is that they're non-runners. Would love to see the Commander win back the GC though.....then maybe the Big One?..................well....2nd to T43 preferably )
Following JT and Addick Addict's Festival pointers usually sees me come out ahead.
Imperial Commander out of GC with a lung infection. Difficult to see how he could be fully fit for Aintree 3 weeks later as (at best) he'll surely be on the easy list for a couple of weeks. If he were to be scratched that would cause a minimum 3lb further rise in the weights IF Albertas Run were also to defect, putting PdB on at least 11.08 (5lbs higher than when the weights were announced in Feb).
PS Twiston-Davies says "I would be very confident he would be back for Aintree"..........without a prep run his stats look ordinary, gutsy chaser though he is.
I've mentioned a funky outsider for the GN on softer than good and he runs today in the Kim Muir - a 3m2f handicap (amateur riders) race that was won by Sunnyhillboy last year before going down by a nose in the GN and which Ballabriggs won the season before his GN triumph.
SWING BILL (33/1 today, 100/1 for the GN) carries top-weight today (last 4 KM winners have carried 11.06+, 2 were topweight) but already has sufficiently decent GN stats that he simply needs to avoid a blot on his otherwise unblemished jumping record (and of course injury) to leave him with the potential to cause a major shock at Aintree but at least strong place credentials, particularly if it were to come up softer than Good. Assuming he avoids a mishap and lines up fit and well on 6 April, he will be on my betting slip alongside TEAFORTHREE and CAPPA BLEU.
I'm mentioning him now because a win or near-miss today would not only strengthen those stats but would likely see his GN price nosedive. If you're persuaded to back him for the GN, he’s available now at 100/1 (4 e/w places) or 66/1 (5 places) but is not yet NRNB. I haven’t done so yet as a clear round today is vital for his GN stats but to hedge in the event of a strong KM run (he is having a good season and likes Cheltenham [2 wins & 2 seconds from 6 chases here] so I wouldn't rule it out) I’ve backed him e/w today at an appealing 25/1 (5 places) [he’s available at 33/1 with 4 places].
He did run in last year's GN coming in 10th 55L. So why should he do better this time? A few reasons to be sanguine: • The going last year (officially Good but time of 4.9 secs faster than std) was on the quick side for him. Even so, he was travelling and jumping nicely, about 15L off the pace when horribly hampered by a faller at The Chair, costing him 10L and considerable momentum. He recovered well and made steady headway to be around 15L off the lead by the 2nd last, after which the pace took its toll and a mistake at the last persuaded his jockey to ease him home - the final 55L distance being a little false as there was nothing close to him in front or behind. • Stats-wise, while it is unusual for a GN winner to have come home in the prior year well behind, it's not unprecedented and was only in 2009 that Mon Mome did just that (spookily was 58L 10th in 2008). • He’s run 4 times over the GN fences, most recently finishing 4th but only 2L behind Hello Bud in the Becher Chase with 10.12 on heavy in December - confirming the impression from the 2012 GN that he now handles these fences well. • Albeit on heavy, that near-miss in the Becher is significant. Since 2004, 2 former Becher Chase winners (Amberleigh House & Silver Birch) have won the GN and another 2 (Clan Royal and Black Apalachi) have finished close 2nd. In fact in the 17 GNs since 1995 [excl Red Marauder’s], 7 of them had Becher Chase winners or “near-missers” [<4L of winner] finishing 1~5 in the GN (11 horses in total). As an aside, Join Together (strong finishing) and Big Fella Thanks were just ahead of him in the Becher but JT, on his other stats and as an 8 y-o, is confined to “big run, no cigar” potential and BFT simply doesn’t get the GN trip and would have to carry at least 11.04 (3lbs+ more than last time when he finished legless). • No Fall or UR in 29 chases and more than 50% ratio of winning or placing. Not many chasers such a long, umblemished jumping record and with a W&P Ratio>50% - Auntie Dot (3rd in 1991 GN) and Buckboard Bounce (4th in 1997) were comparable. • Age is OK if not ideal. 12 is on the outer limit for GN success but doesn’t rule him out. Amberleigh House was the last 12 y-o GN winner (2004) and 2 of the last 3 GNs have seen 12 y-os placed 5th. • Season’s form is good (1 win and twice <4L from 3)- a finish <10L of the winner today with top-weight would make it arguably his best to date and, while not essential, would enhance his GN stats. • Tidal Bay’s defection puts him on 10.06 for the GN - 3lbs more than last year but, at <11.00, of no consequence and a further weight rise wouldn’t hurt his GN stats. • Don’t worry about spotting him – he’s almost pure white and happily Neptune Collonges laid the Grey-bogey in the GN to rest. • Cut in the ground at Aintree would very much assist. It may happen naturally this year but, surely, after last year’s furore and with an enhanced watering system, they will ensure that there is more moisture in the ground.
Of other KM runners today, Harry The Viking (25/1 KM, 50/1 GN) could materially enhance his GN stat-profile but he would have to win or go very close to be a GN Winning candidate and would likely require decent ground. A win or near-miss for Alfie Sherrin, Romanesco or Frisco Depot would improve their GN stats but to place potential at best.
Looking to tomorrow, Sunnyhillboy will run in the GC as his GN prep. While highly unlikely to win, a strong show would see a significant boost to his chances of going a nose better than last year. More anon.
His problem is 2 runs in the GN and he hasn't got past the 8th fence. Statistically one F or UR in the GN can be forgiven if it's after a full circuit (16 fences) and when in touch or if they've run well over the GN fences in another race (plenty as such have scored in subsequent GN) but his goose is cooked at Aintree I'm afraid.........(now I've put a line through him he'll probably bolt up but, in any event, could easily run a big race today at a track that he seems to enjoy and on ground to suit, which he hasn't had all season).
Peanuts, me not being one to moan !, but could you stick this info up the day before any race as a lot of us cant get onto the bookie websites because of Blocks at work. Ta much.
Sorry Chief, it was a choice last night between avoiding having to wrestle my dinner away from the dog or tipping you the wink....the dog's not happy either.
If they leave Albertas Run in the GN field after that dismal performance in the Ryanair, you'd have to assume he's there purely to keep the weights down for Ballabriggs.
If they leave Albertas Run in the GN field after that dismal performance in the Ryanair, you'd have to assume he's there purely to keep the weights down for Ballabriggs.
That's very cynical Peanuts. But not as cynical as those of us who see value in backing Jonjo's last time out PU's in big handicaps.
Certainly not and I'm not suggesting that will be the case with Alberta's here. On the other hand, take a look what happened to AR in his prep run prior to winning at Cheltenham in 2011 ;-)
Comments
watch your horse fall at the chair, then sit in a chair and eat it in a bun , your gonna love it ! bet in play !
One or two important GN preps this afternoon, particularly for Ballabriggs.
Cheers
Also, a key issue for several is whether the weights go up again. They will rise 2lbs because of Tidal Bay’s defection and would rise at least another 2lbs if Albertas Run were scratched. He hasn’t run all season and didn’t go that well in a recent racecourse gallop so, although he’s due to seek a third Ryanair victory at The Festival and his owner would probably like him to run at Aintree (if only, perhaps, to keep the weight down for Ballabriggs), he is by no means a certain participant. If he were to defect it would have a significant, adverse effect on the stats of several candidates.
Finally, of course, the going will be crucial to the chances of some.
So, all in all, the complete Win Selections (according to my model) won’t be known until probably the week before the big day.
However, two have completed their preps and their stats are sufficiently strong that, regardless of the going and of a possible rise in the weights, they are already Win Selections.
As I said after the weights were announced, TEAFORTHREE (now best price 22/1 – Betfair Win 25) is a definite Win Selection on any going and even if the weights rise again (a rise would reduce his stat advantage but would not scupper his Winning Profile). I don’t like to identify a NAP because anything can happen in the GN (e.g. Synchronised last year) but the fact is that my model’s rating of T43 is (and should remain) the best in the field.
CAPPA BLEU ran a terrific prep at Ascot in Feb which gave his stats the boost necessary to give him a Winning Profile (understandably, that took his price down to current best 16/1 (Betfair Win 15.5) - shrewdies like Addick Addict are certainly on at much higher). The model rates his winning chance best on Good-to-Soft or better but he should still run a big race and at least be placed even on Soft. His stats are immune to a rise in the weights but, even with a rise and on good ground, his stat-score would still be lower than T43’s.
CB’s main stats:
• Handled the GN fences well last year on quick ground when a 12L 4th carrying 10.10. Handicap mark 2lbs lower this year and will carry 10.09 if the weights don’t rise again.
• A fine 3rd 22L in the Welsh National on Heavy in 2011 carrying 11.03. Good correlation between Welsh and Aintree Nationals (as outlined in the T43 analysis).
• Good consistency. In 9 chases under Rules he has been out of the frame only twice. His 2 wins include a strong 2009 Festival Foxhunters Chase – his first race under Rules.
• 11 year-old, 49 days since last run (a fine staying-on 2nd in a Listed 3m chase at Ascot) consistent with a GN winner’s profile.
T43 and CB are, respectively, certain and virtually-certain to appear on my betting slip.
Coming to yesterday’s racing:
BALLABRIGGS did just about enough (3rd 10L in a 3m Listed Chase at Kelso) to improve his stats to match those of Cappa Bleu and give him a Winning Profile on Good-to-Soft or better (he would not want it Soft or worse). The two are theoretically closely matched as regards treatment by the handicapper relative to last year’s result (CB came in 5.25L ahead of BB but was receiving 13lbs – he gets 7lbs this time). BB may be a selection by my model come the final analysis but not if there is any rise in the weights, which would lower BB’s stat-profile to Place rather than Win potential.
As an aside, though he did enough yesterday to satisfy the stats, subjectively, I was less impressed with him than the journos seem to have been. He looked like the winner at the last but emptied markedly over the last 100 yards (some reports said that the front two quickened away from him – that’s not how I saw it). Of course, he would not be expected to be fully primed and the going was not ideal but he has won on Soft over 3m+ before (albeit in weaker company). To my mind, for a 12 year old with stamina credentials, he shouldn’t really have been tiring so badly before the line. Nonetheless, assuming nothing is amiss and the going at Aintree is decent, he’ll likely be a potent force come 6 April. Whether he will be one of my model’s Win selections, it is too early to say.
At Doncaster yesterday, JOIN TOGETHER PU’d in the Grimthorpe Chase for which he was favourite. He was very badly hampered by an early faller. Walsh tried to nurse him slowly back into the race from out the back of the field but to no avail. Assuming there was no physical injury (none as yet reported) it may be that the incident unsettled the 8 year-old – he can expect to encounter more than that by way of mishaps to dodge at Aintree. Regardless of the disappointing prep, owing mainly to a fine strong-finishing 2nd in the Becher Chase on heavy in December, his GN stats remain good for a strong run but place potential at best. Despite his Becher run, his chances would not be helped by Soft (8 year-olds have poor GN stats on Soft~Heavy).
Of the others on show yesterday:
BIG FELLA THANKS ran nicely again (2nd 5L in a Class 1 over 2.5m at Newbury) and is having a fine season. He has plenty of weight to carry at Aintree (at least 11.04 – 3lbs more than when finishing a legless 7th 2 years ago) and the trainer has indicated that the Topham may be preferred to the GN.
CALGARY BAY ran a stinker in the Grimthorpe on ground that should have suited and, having failed twice in the GN, has dismal stats.
MR MOONSHINE (6th 36L in the Grimthorpe), TARTAK (4th 19L in a veterans chase at Newbury), MORTIMERS CROSS (7th 60L in the same race) and FORPADYDEPLASTERER (6th 18L in an 18f hurdle at Leopardstown this afternoon) should not be troubling the Aintree judges, if they run.
As I’ve mentioned previously, there remains an interesting outsider if it is Good-to-Soft or softer but he is due to run at Cheltenham and needs to avoid any mishaps. More in due course.
;-)
All that stuff is fascinating, even though I have little idea what it all means!
Would love to see the Commander win back the GC though.....then maybe the Big One?..................well....2nd to T43 preferably
Following JT and Addick Addict's Festival pointers usually sees me come out ahead.
If he were to be scratched that would cause a minimum 3lb further rise in the weights IF Albertas Run were also to defect, putting PdB on at least 11.08 (5lbs higher than when the weights were announced in Feb).
PS Twiston-Davies says "I would be very confident he would be back for Aintree"..........without a prep run his stats look ordinary, gutsy chaser though he is.
SWING BILL (33/1 today, 100/1 for the GN) carries top-weight today (last 4 KM winners have carried 11.06+, 2 were topweight) but already has sufficiently decent GN stats that he simply needs to avoid a blot on his otherwise unblemished jumping record (and of course injury) to leave him with the potential to cause a major shock at Aintree but at least strong place credentials, particularly if it were to come up softer than Good. Assuming he avoids a mishap and lines up fit and well on 6 April, he will be on my betting slip alongside TEAFORTHREE and CAPPA BLEU.
I'm mentioning him now because a win or near-miss today would not only strengthen those stats but would likely see his GN price nosedive. If you're persuaded to back him for the GN, he’s available now at 100/1 (4 e/w places) or 66/1 (5 places) but is not yet NRNB. I haven’t done so yet as a clear round today is vital for his GN stats but to hedge in the event of a strong KM run (he is having a good season and likes Cheltenham [2 wins & 2 seconds from 6 chases here] so I wouldn't rule it out) I’ve backed him e/w today at an appealing 25/1 (5 places) [he’s available at 33/1 with 4 places].
He did run in last year's GN coming in 10th 55L. So why should he do better this time? A few reasons to be sanguine:
• The going last year (officially Good but time of 4.9 secs faster than std) was on the quick side for him. Even so, he was travelling and jumping nicely, about 15L off the pace when horribly hampered by a faller at The Chair, costing him 10L and considerable momentum. He recovered well and made steady headway to be around 15L off the lead by the 2nd last, after which the pace took its toll and a mistake at the last persuaded his jockey to ease him home - the final 55L distance being a little false as there was nothing close to him in front or behind.
• Stats-wise, while it is unusual for a GN winner to have come home in the prior year well behind, it's not unprecedented and was only in 2009 that Mon Mome did just that (spookily was 58L 10th in 2008).
• He’s run 4 times over the GN fences, most recently finishing 4th but only 2L behind Hello Bud in the Becher Chase with 10.12 on heavy in December - confirming the impression from the 2012 GN that he now handles these fences well.
• Albeit on heavy, that near-miss in the Becher is significant. Since 2004, 2 former Becher Chase winners (Amberleigh House & Silver Birch) have won the GN and another 2 (Clan Royal and Black Apalachi) have finished close 2nd. In fact in the 17 GNs since 1995 [excl Red Marauder’s], 7 of them had Becher Chase winners or “near-missers” [<4L of winner] finishing 1~5 in the GN (11 horses in total). As an aside, Join Together (strong finishing) and Big Fella Thanks were just ahead of him in the Becher but JT, on his other stats and as an 8 y-o, is confined to “big run, no cigar” potential and BFT simply doesn’t get the GN trip and would have to carry at least 11.04 (3lbs+ more than last time when he finished legless).
• No Fall or UR in 29 chases and more than 50% ratio of winning or placing. Not many chasers such a long, umblemished jumping record and with a W&P Ratio>50% - Auntie Dot (3rd in 1991 GN) and Buckboard Bounce (4th in 1997) were comparable.
• Age is OK if not ideal. 12 is on the outer limit for GN success but doesn’t rule him out. Amberleigh House was the last 12 y-o GN winner (2004) and 2 of the last 3 GNs have seen 12 y-os placed 5th.
• Season’s form is good (1 win and twice <4L from 3)- a finish <10L of the winner today with top-weight would make it arguably his best to date and, while not essential, would enhance his GN stats.
• Tidal Bay’s defection puts him on 10.06 for the GN - 3lbs more than last year but, at <11.00, of no consequence and a further weight rise wouldn’t hurt his GN stats.
• Don’t worry about spotting him – he’s almost pure white and happily Neptune Collonges laid the Grey-bogey in the GN to rest.
• Cut in the ground at Aintree would very much assist. It may happen naturally this year but, surely, after last year’s furore and with an enhanced watering system, they will ensure that there is more moisture in the ground.
Of other KM runners today, Harry The Viking (25/1 KM, 50/1 GN) could materially enhance his GN stat-profile but he would have to win or go very close to be a GN Winning candidate and would likely require decent ground. A win or near-miss for Alfie Sherrin, Romanesco or Frisco Depot would improve their GN stats but to place potential at best.
Looking to tomorrow, Sunnyhillboy will run in the GC as his GN prep. While highly unlikely to win, a strong show would see a significant boost to his chances of going a nose better than last year. More anon.
dynaste,shutthefrontdoor, cue card, oscar whisky, hunt ball lucky 31ew
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Ta much.
Carry on........