<blockquote class="Quote" rel="Carter">......Not so great last year but it's not fall-proof.....</blockquote>
...indeed, literally not when it came to Synchronised last year, sadly (and West End Rocker of course).....but we did only miss the win by a nose!! aghhh!!
I'm not surprised. He won't be fancied and if I didn't use stats I'd probably look past him myself but I would probably have done likewise with Mon Mome. The golden rule is, if you have a system, stick to it. But you have to have him for a place. Betfair Place market pays out to 4th. He's currently offered at 27 (26/1) there (not huge size).
RTE Sports reports Alfie Sherrin, The Package, Quito De La Roque, Albertas Run, Roi Du Mee, Midnight Chase, Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound & 8 others (presumably incl Frisco Depot) scratched today. Waiting on full list. 57 left in seemingly. Lion Na Bearnai in but struggling to be ready after injury.
Full list: Albertas Run Quito De La Roque Katenko Calgary Bay Roi Du Mee Midnight Chase Planet Of Sound The Package Jessies Dream Problema Tic Frisco Depot Alfie Sherrin Mathui Tartak Summery Justice Odysseas
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="PeanutsMolloy"><blockquote class="Quote" rel="oldbloke">For me BK is right age, weight, jumps well, has run in decent enough events, does most of his winning left handed courses and looks like he will stay. I feel ground is an issue for him but as long as its Good/Soft or better I'm happy with the ante post prices i have for BK have also backed your selection T43.
I like the detail you put on the site for the GN and always like to get on a horse early as prices can reduce rapidly in the last few days. Last year i backed Seabass @ prices around 50-1 then laid it back on the day @ 9-1 for a free bet. Hopefully will do the same with the 2 above this year.</blockquote>
Nice one on Seabass last year and best of luck with BK and T43. If Richard Johnson is on board BK he will be looking to break his current 16-ride duck in the GN (a record). Nearly did it with Whats Up Boys in 2002. Maybe you'll get a major shortening of BK's price and another free bet if he opts for Quinz ;o)</blockquote>
I remember Whats Up Boys all too well. I had a small packet on him. Jim Culloty did him on the run in .. goddammmmmit
I had him in the Coral Cup. I was standing about 50yds before the finishing line and he went past me in about 8th, steaming up the hill. Came home by a neck at about 80/1 on the tote. Happy days.
WUB was a very good horse. I have a great deal of time for Richard Johnson .. I call him Mister Two .. fated to be around at the same time as A P, Ruby and Barry G. He all too often comes in second in the big ones. Mind you, he's won a few biggies, other than the GN. What would he have won as Nicholls' or Henderson's main rider instead of the Worthy Mr Hobbs' ? .. alas that is a ? that will remain conjecture
I had him in the Coral Cup. I was standing about 50yds before the finishing line and he went past me in about 8th, steaming up the hill. Came home by a neck at about 80/1 on the tote. Happy days.
Thanks PM for the reminder. I told all of the party I went with how much I fancied Native Dara ;-(
......Not so great last year but it's not fall-proof.....
...indeed, literally not when it came to Synchronised last year, sadly (and West End Rocker of course).....but we did only miss the win by a nose!! aghhh!!
I was trying to explain to my missus how the stat worked and how it was dependent on weight, form, age etc and she told me it was just down to the fastest horse who was the best jumper. What do I know haha!
I saw mumbles head race at aintree in December and backed him on the say so of the racing expert that is my missus.
The commentator described his misdemeanor as 'capsizing' I didn't even know a horse knew how to capsize! Don't back that horse anybody!
Out of a romantic gesture remembering him capsizing I might stick a pound each way on him
Peanuts - I'm thinking of going £10 each way on the following horses;
1. Tea For Three 2. Capeu Bleu 3. Tofino Bay 4. SunnyHill Boy 5. Balthazar King 6. Across The Bay
Please can you give me your views on (a) these selections (b) when I should place the bets (c) who I should place them with (d) the merits of taking up these 'new account/free bets' offers that the likes of PP and Bet365 etc are promoting and (e) whether each way is the right decision for these 6 nags.
Apologies if these are basic questions but you seem to be the guy with the system so thought you'd be best placed to guide me.
OK folks. 57 entries left after yesterday’s forfeit stage. The GN Meeting starts 2 weeks on Thursday and things are starting to get serious. Top-weight is now Imperial Commander with 11.10 but the Racing Post reports it as likely that he will be scratched. However it seems to be confident that What A Friend will run, however, which would limit a further increase to 1lb. Given that McCain has confirmed Weird Al (1lb lower than What A Friend) as a intended runner, the maximum further rise should be 2lbs and, as such, the analysis below is (more or less) immune to more top-weight defections. From a stats-perspective, the 4lb total weight rise since publication of the weights on 12 Feb has materially worsened the stat-profiles of several originally allotted 11.00+, including 2 of the front 3 in the market (Seabass and Prince De Beauchene) and returning former winners/near-missers (Ballabriggs and Sunnyhillboy). Moreover, owing to injury (particularly to Tidal Bay), lack of crucial preps (particularly Imperial Commander, Sunnyhillboy and Beshabar) or failing to rescue an ordinary season (Harry The Viking and Oscar Time) there has been an unusually high attrition of “Possibles”. Last year Sunnyhillboy burst into the reckoning with his Kim Muir victory and, at this stage, became one of 5 runners rated by the model as Win Candidates on Good – all relatively fancied by the market, prices ranging from 12~25/1. There was a significantly different 5 on Soft. In contrast, this year we have 3 Win Candidates and, despite going preferences, as a group they are common to both good and soft ground: TEAFORTHREE, CAPPA BLEU and SWING BILL. Their current prices are respectively 20, 14 and 100/1. That is certainly NOT to say that it is any less a competitive GN from a stats-perspective. Like last year, on going better than soft, there is a clutch of runners just below the requisite standard, in the “margin of error” so it seems like we may either hit the motherlode or come up empty. We’ll see. If prices permit, and this year they certainly do, I like to have a 4th running for me. All 3 Best Place Candidates on Good ground could run big races. Indeed, should all 3 Win Selections meet with misfortune or have an off-day, the model considers that the winner should be one of them. Even at 12, Ballabriggs (28/1) is likely to be a potent force once again around Aintree if he gets decent ground and Join Together (20/1) ran a blinder in the Becher Chase in December. Either would make excellent additions to a betting slip. However, the high attrition of “Possibles” has left an unexpected and interesting runner, TOFINO BAY (33/1), as the only Best Place Candidates common to both categories of going (albeit with a definite preference for softer than Good). He is a risky proposition, since (as explained below), there is a significant margin of error in the model’s treatment of his novice status but partly because he could surprise on the upside or the downside, I’ve added him to my ticket as my 4th selection. If, nearer the day, we were seemingly heading for testing ground, I’d be strongly minded also to add (e/w 5 places) the model’s next Best Place Candidate on Soft~Heavy, TARQUINIUS (150/1) in pursuit of the jackpot. That’s my betting slip. If you wanted only 2 on your ticket I would suggest that TEAFORTHREE and CAPPA BLEU (both e/w) should be the choice………..they’re keeping a welcome in the hillside for the first Welsh-trained winner for over a century (……I’ll be gutted if it’s Beshabar!). The model’s selections for 2 different broad categories of going are:
Good (incl GF and GS) The winner should be one of (in order of best stat-score): • TEAFORTHREE (20/1) • CAPPA BLEU (14/1) • SWING BILL (100/1) (preference for softer than Good) Best Place Potential (all 3 have same stat-score): • TOFINO BAY (33/1) (preference for softer than Good) • BALLABRIGGS (28/1) • JOIN TOGETHER (20/1) Next best (but should not be nearer than 25L of T43 if he runs to his stat-score): • Seabass • Romanesco • On His Own • Major Malarkey (only on Good) Soft~Heavy The winner should be one of (in order of best stat-score): • TEAFORTHREE (20/1) • SWING BILL (100/1) • CAPPA BLEU (14/1) Best Place Potential (in order): • TOFINO BAY (33/1) • TARQUINIUS (150/1)
I’ve outlined T43, Cappa Bleu and Swing Bill’s profiles in earlier posts but I will post later today a run-down on why Tofino Bay is a high risk-reward selection and appears on my ticket.
Peanuts - I'm thinking of going £10 each way on the following horses;
1. Tea For Three 2. Capeu Bleu 3. Tofino Bay 4. SunnyHill Boy 5. Balthazar King 6. Across The Bay
Please can you give me your views on (a) these selections (b) when I should place the bets (c) who I should place them with (d) the merits of taking up these 'new account/free bets' offers that the likes of PP and Bet365 etc are promoting and (e) whether each way is the right decision for these 6 nags.
Apologies if these are basic questions but you seem to be the guy with the system so thought you'd be best placed to guide me.
Will get back to you a little later if that's OK meldrew66. At first glance looks a avery interesting selection. As an general point, I would look to scale bets to some degree so that you are relatively indifferent as to which one comes in.
Peanuts - I'm thinking of going £10 each way on the following horses;
1. Tea For Three 2. Capeu Bleu 3. Tofino Bay 4. SunnyHill Boy 5. Balthazar King 6. Across The Bay
Please can you give me your views on (a) these selections (b) when I should place the bets (c) who I should place them with (d) the merits of taking up these 'new account/free bets' offers that the likes of PP and Bet365 etc are promoting and (e) whether each way is the right decision for these 6 nags.
Apologies if these are basic questions but you seem to be the guy with the system so thought you'd be best placed to guide me.
Will get back to you a little later if that's OK meldrew66. At first glance looks a avery interesting selection. As an general point, I would look to scale bets to some degree so that you are relatively indifferent as to which one comes in.
Oh and another important, quick point. Use bookies that are Non Runner No Bet (Bet365 and BetVictor now but most start to offer this soon). Tofino Bay is entered in the Irish National and Sunnyhillboy scoped dirty last week so may or may not line up.
Peanuts - I'm thinking of going £10 each way on the following horses;
1. Tea For Three 2. Capeu Bleu 3. Tofino Bay 4. SunnyHill Boy 5. Balthazar King 6. Across The Bay
Please can you give me your views on (a) these selections (b) when I should place the bets (c) who I should place them with (d) the merits of taking up these 'new account/free bets' offers that the likes of PP and Bet365 etc are promoting and (e) whether each way is the right decision for these 6 nags.
Apologies if these are basic questions but you seem to be the guy with the system so thought you'd be best placed to guide me.
Sorry to be slow replying Chief, had to take one of the dogs to the vet. I'm not a betting expert by any means so I can't advise on the best time to place bets, other than to protect your stake by betting with bookies offering Non Runner No Bet (now just Bet365 and BetVictor but others should start to offer this shortly). Personally I prefer also to have 5 places e/w even at lower odds (within reason). Those 2 elements are at a premium for me and so, at the moment, I would be betting only with Bet365 (BetVictor are now only 4 places but in previous years, shortly before the race, they have offered 6 places). I imagine that many reading this thread would rather go for best price and/or special offers (all I would caution on the latter is that they can sometimes cause such demand on a website that it becomes very frustrating to use, as in the case of Coral recently). I tend to bet sooner rather than later because if I fancy a runner I tend to assume (not always correctly) that, for one reason or another, it's price could fall dramatically. For example, weeks after I'd nominated him, Dont Push It was still c. 90/1 on Betfair less than 2 weeks before he won the 2010 GN - he went off 10/1 JtFav after McCoy decided to ride him rather than Cant Buy Time. Naturally, the more e/w selections you have, the more important it is to get on at reasonable prices. With 6 on your ticket, you will need to get the winner or at least a couple of places to make a return - so again 5 places e/w are important IMHO.
For comparative odds, Oddschecker.com is a useful site. This morning it showed:
T43 (bet365 18/1, best price 20/1 at BetVictor, Boylesport & Hills) Cappa Bleu (bet365 14/1, only Sportingbet higher at 15/1) Tofino Bay (bet365 33/1, none better) Sunnyhillboy (bet365 20/1, only Coral better at 25/1) Balthazar King (bet365 28/1, 33/1 available from various) Across The Bay (bet365 33/1, 40/1 at Boylesports, Hills and Coral)
As regards your 6: T43 and CB I've covered already in earlier posts and will shortly be outlining why Tofino Bay is interesting. I've backed all 3 already (all 5 places and only CB isn't NRNB as I wanted to take the price before NRNB was offered). Actually I talked about the stats for BK and SHB in earlier posts aswell but, in summary:
BALTHAZAR KING
The model gives him a credit for his jumping, as he hasn't had an F or UR for over 3 years (and that was over hurdles). His other credit is for his Festival Cross-Country win over 3m7f last season, which ticks a stamina box. Silver Birch was a close 2nd in the Festival XC shortly prior to his 2007 GN victory. Importantly, though, he also had victories in the Welsh National and in the Becher Chase to his name, both in testing conditions. These scored him a bigger stamina (and of course a GN fence) credit. In BK's case, his only success at 3.5m+ has come in two XCs - his 2 runs over conventional fences at 28f+ have yielded 2 PUs on going that should have suited (one of these at Cheltenham where he has had success over shorter and the other in the 2011 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3.75m). Admittedly they were both higher class chases than he was used to but he was reasonably fancied in both races (8/1 in the old "Whitbread"). The model doesn't penalise him for these failures, it's just that he doesn't register any other credits. In fact, he doesn't have a lot of negatives - but there is one. My impression of Hobbs' GN runners over the years is that he likes to take them to Aintree fresh. Of course every horse is different but, purely from a GN stats perspective, the absence of a reasonably recent prep and/or a light campaign are negatives. BK won't have had a run for 141 days when he lines up at Aintree and has had only 2 runs all season. That lack of racing and being scratched from the XC last week are entirely understandable, given that he doesn't like soft ground, but the winner of every GN since at least 1988 (maybe further back) had a prep not more than 56 days prior. Only 3 of 24 horses placed within 10L of the GN winners had not done likewise. The average number of runs in the season, prior to Aintree, for those GN winners was over 5 (if he were to win, BK would match Miinnehoma with the lowest number but Miinnehoma's 2 runs were 23 and 35 days before the big day). This isn't a red line negative for BK but, combined with only modest positives, from a stats-perspective my model thinks he could run nicely but is unlikely to figure at the sharp end of the race.
SUNNYHILLBOY
If mine aren't going to come in, my heart would love SHB to go a nose better than last year. He is a fine stayer (from the family of Whitbread winner Brown Windsor and sired by Old Vic, a sire of many top stayers) but he does prefer decent ground, which he got last year but may or may not get this time. Lack of a prep (84 days since last run - please see comments on lack of a prep re Balthazar King above) has tipped the balance of his stats against a repeat of anything approaching last year, even on good ground. Combined with a significant weight increase on last year (at least 13lbs more this time on 11.04) and 2 canters around over hurdles (PU and 23L 5th), admittedly on softer than he would have liked, being his only outings this season, for my model the negatives outweigh his proven stamina credentials and ability over the fences. Every GN winner since 1988 has won or been placed (and <5L of the winner) in the season, prior to the big day. Same goes for all but 2 of the 24 horses finishing <10L of the GN winner. It's common now for returning winners or "near-things" to have a light campaign and each of Comply or Die (12L 2nd), Dont Push It (14L 3rd) and Ballabriggs (18L 6th) ran well in their returns after such; though all had had preps within 42 days of the big day and none had a hike as big as 13lbs to contend with. On a subjective note, you have to be a little concerned about him scoping dirty (if that was the true reason for him missing the Gold Cup) last week and with the fact that he suffered a serious leg injury during the last GN, which may or may not give problems when put under the extreme stress of another GN. These concerns aside, he has the ability to follow in the hoof-prints of COD and DPI and grab a place but the stats suggest other "returners" (particularly Cappa Bleu) and several GN debutants have better chances of victory.
AtB is a dangerous horse from the model's perspective. On all of his stats, the model gives him virtually no chance but he had a wind operation after his 7th (74L) in the Welsh National in December in which he carried top-weight (a mission impossible) and on his return won a high quality Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2 3m hurdle on testing Haydock heavy). The model cannot take account of such things as recent wind ops (of course) - it simply considers the career stats as they are. In its view: given what he has achieved over fences, 11.02 is plenty for him to carry in a GN; he has no form over fences on anything approaching decent ground (indeed none of his 11 chases have been on anything other than Soft or Heavy) though he has some form over hurdles on better going; he has had no success in 2 attempts at beyond 3.25m (other than his 7th the Welsh National, he PU'd on heavy in the 2010 Irish National); he has never won or gone close in a Class 1 of a fieldsize more than 4; all 3 chase victories have come at minor tracks and, despite only 1 UR on his record, he's never even been placed in any chase at one of the major (stiff-jumping) tracks other than in a small field. Since 1989, all 47 GN winners and horses placed <10L of them had previously either run well over the GN fences or in the Irish or Welsh Nationals or had a win or near-miss over fences at one of Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury or Leopardstown. He has no form at such tracks.
Given his handicap mark, he's obviously a better chaser than the model evaluates but then the model looks specifically at GN data whereas an OR reflects all of his chase career.
Having said all that, if you really fancy him, and/or any or all of the others, please don't let me put you off backing them. My model could easily be horribly wrong.
Cheers Peanuts; I much appreciate the level of detail in your helpful, informative reply. I'll take your advice and go for prices with Bet365 now with the benefit of NRNB and 5 places. For the record, I'm dropping Balthazar King from my list of 6 and added in Swing Bill and Tarquinius (mainly because of the great prices coupled with your rating). Fingers crossed for a much better GN than Cheltenham Festival where I lost my shirt (pretty much) throughout the whole week!
Oh blimey, that's BK nailed on then ;o) If you're sticking dear old Tarquinius in you really are following me over the cliff! He would need some cut in the ground to keep up - the softer the better - but unfancied beasts have been placed before. Just depends if he takes to the fences and occasion (same goes for all of the debs of course).
Cheers Peanuts; I much appreciate the level of detail in your helpful, informative reply. I'll take your advice and go for prices with Bet365 now with the benefit of NRNB and 5 places. For the record, I'm dropping Balthazar King from my list of 6 and added in Swing Bill and Tarquinius (mainly because of the great prices coupled with your rating). Fingers crossed for a much better GN than Cheltenham Festival where I lost my shirt (pretty much) throughout the whole week!
Apologies meldrew66, I meant to say many thanks for your comment.
Just on unfancieds (50/1+) coming home in the money (if you have 5 places!):
BTW, the only one of those outsiders that the model can't account for in terms of the horse's stats (and treats as an outlier - the 2009 GN was an unusual race) is Cerium. The rest all had stats consistent with their performance.
Comments
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="Carter">......Not so great last year but it's not fall-proof.....</blockquote>
...indeed, literally not when it came to Synchronised last year, sadly (and West End Rocker of course).....but we did only miss the win by a nose!! aghhh!!
I'm on.
Amazing how the price differs so much between win and place (place around 20/1)
But you have to have him for a place. Betfair Place market pays out to 4th. He's currently offered at 27 (26/1) there (not huge size).
Albertas Run
Quito De La Roque
Katenko
Calgary Bay
Roi Du Mee
Midnight Chase
Planet Of Sound
The Package
Jessies Dream
Problema Tic
Frisco Depot
Alfie Sherrin
Mathui
Tartak
Summery Justice
Odysseas
The weight rise is particularly favourable (relatively) to your fellow.
Cappa Bleu is looking a good thing aswell.
Hoping to be posting later more detailed thoughts on other prospects.
Will be using your analysis to make a choice this year PM!!
I like the detail you put on the site for the GN and always like to get on a horse early as prices can reduce rapidly in the last few days. Last year i backed Seabass @ prices around 50-1 then laid it back on the day @ 9-1 for a free bet. Hopefully will do the same with the 2 above this year.</blockquote>
Nice one on Seabass last year and best of luck with BK and T43.
If Richard Johnson is on board BK he will be looking to break his current 16-ride duck in the GN (a record). Nearly did it with Whats Up Boys in 2002. Maybe you'll get a major shortening of BK's price and another free bet if he opts for Quinz ;o)</blockquote>
I remember Whats Up Boys all too well. I had a small packet on him. Jim Culloty did him on the run in .. goddammmmmit
I have a great deal of time for Richard Johnson .. I call him Mister Two .. fated to be around at the same time as A P, Ruby and Barry G. He all too often comes in second in the big ones. Mind you, he's won a few biggies, other than the GN. What would he have won as Nicholls' or Henderson's main rider instead of the Worthy Mr Hobbs' ? .. alas that is a ? that will remain conjecture
I saw mumbles head race at aintree in December and backed him on the say so of the racing expert that is my missus.
The commentator described his misdemeanor as 'capsizing' I didn't even know a horse knew how to capsize! Don't back that horse anybody!
Out of a romantic gesture remembering him capsizing I might stick a pound each way on him
;o)
1. Tea For Three
2. Capeu Bleu
3. Tofino Bay
4. SunnyHill Boy
5. Balthazar King
6. Across The Bay
Please can you give me your views on (a) these selections (b) when I should place the bets (c) who I should place them with (d) the merits of taking up these 'new account/free bets' offers that the likes of PP and Bet365 etc are promoting and (e) whether each way is the right decision for these 6 nags.
Apologies if these are basic questions but you seem to be the guy with the system so thought you'd be best placed to guide me.
Top-weight is now Imperial Commander with 11.10 but the Racing Post reports it as likely that he will be scratched. However it seems to be confident that What A Friend will run, however, which would limit a further increase to 1lb. Given that McCain has confirmed Weird Al (1lb lower than What A Friend) as a intended runner, the maximum further rise should be 2lbs and, as such, the analysis below is (more or less) immune to more top-weight defections.
From a stats-perspective, the 4lb total weight rise since publication of the weights on 12 Feb has materially worsened the stat-profiles of several originally allotted 11.00+, including 2 of the front 3 in the market (Seabass and Prince De Beauchene) and returning former winners/near-missers (Ballabriggs and Sunnyhillboy). Moreover, owing to injury (particularly to Tidal Bay), lack of crucial preps (particularly Imperial Commander, Sunnyhillboy and Beshabar) or failing to rescue an ordinary season (Harry The Viking and Oscar Time) there has been an unusually high attrition of “Possibles”.
Last year Sunnyhillboy burst into the reckoning with his Kim Muir victory and, at this stage, became one of 5 runners rated by the model as Win Candidates on Good – all relatively fancied by the market, prices ranging from 12~25/1. There was a significantly different 5 on Soft.
In contrast, this year we have 3 Win Candidates and, despite going preferences, as a group they are common to both good and soft ground: TEAFORTHREE, CAPPA BLEU and SWING BILL. Their current prices are respectively 20, 14 and 100/1. That is certainly NOT to say that it is any less a competitive GN from a stats-perspective. Like last year, on going better than soft, there is a clutch of runners just below the requisite standard, in the “margin of error” so it seems like we may either hit the motherlode or come up empty. We’ll see.
If prices permit, and this year they certainly do, I like to have a 4th running for me. All 3 Best Place Candidates on Good ground could run big races. Indeed, should all 3 Win Selections meet with misfortune or have an off-day, the model considers that the winner should be one of them. Even at 12, Ballabriggs (28/1) is likely to be a potent force once again around Aintree if he gets decent ground and Join Together (20/1) ran a blinder in the Becher Chase in December. Either would make excellent additions to a betting slip.
However, the high attrition of “Possibles” has left an unexpected and interesting runner, TOFINO BAY (33/1), as the only Best Place Candidates common to both categories of going (albeit with a definite preference for softer than Good). He is a risky proposition, since (as explained below), there is a significant margin of error in the model’s treatment of his novice status but partly because he could surprise on the upside or the downside, I’ve added him to my ticket as my 4th selection. If, nearer the day, we were seemingly heading for testing ground, I’d be strongly minded also to add (e/w 5 places) the model’s next Best Place Candidate on Soft~Heavy, TARQUINIUS (150/1) in pursuit of the jackpot.
That’s my betting slip. If you wanted only 2 on your ticket I would suggest that TEAFORTHREE and CAPPA BLEU (both e/w) should be the choice………..they’re keeping a welcome in the hillside for the first Welsh-trained winner for over a century (……I’ll be gutted if it’s Beshabar!).
The model’s selections for 2 different broad categories of going are:
Good (incl GF and GS)
The winner should be one of (in order of best stat-score):
• TEAFORTHREE (20/1)
• CAPPA BLEU (14/1)
• SWING BILL (100/1) (preference for softer than Good)
Best Place Potential (all 3 have same stat-score):
• TOFINO BAY (33/1) (preference for softer than Good)
• BALLABRIGGS (28/1)
• JOIN TOGETHER (20/1)
Next best (but should not be nearer than 25L of T43 if he runs to his stat-score):
• Seabass
• Romanesco
• On His Own
• Major Malarkey (only on Good)
Soft~Heavy
The winner should be one of (in order of best stat-score):
• TEAFORTHREE (20/1)
• SWING BILL (100/1)
• CAPPA BLEU (14/1)
Best Place Potential (in order):
• TOFINO BAY (33/1)
• TARQUINIUS (150/1)
I’ve outlined T43, Cappa Bleu and Swing Bill’s profiles in earlier posts but I will post later today a run-down on why Tofino Bay is a high risk-reward selection and appears on my ticket.
At first glance looks a avery interesting selection. As an general point, I would look to scale bets to some degree so that you are relatively indifferent as to which one comes in.
I'm not a betting expert by any means so I can't advise on the best time to place bets, other than to protect your stake by betting with bookies offering Non Runner No Bet (now just Bet365 and BetVictor but others should start to offer this shortly). Personally I prefer also to have 5 places e/w even at lower odds (within reason). Those 2 elements are at a premium for me and so, at the moment, I would be betting only with Bet365 (BetVictor are now only 4 places but in previous years, shortly before the race, they have offered 6 places).
I imagine that many reading this thread would rather go for best price and/or special offers (all I would caution on the latter is that they can sometimes cause such demand on a website that it becomes very frustrating to use, as in the case of Coral recently).
I tend to bet sooner rather than later because if I fancy a runner I tend to assume (not always correctly) that, for one reason or another, it's price could fall dramatically. For example, weeks after I'd nominated him, Dont Push It was still c. 90/1 on Betfair less than 2 weeks before he won the 2010 GN - he went off 10/1 JtFav after McCoy decided to ride him rather than Cant Buy Time. Naturally, the more e/w selections you have, the more important it is to get on at reasonable prices. With 6 on your ticket, you will need to get the winner or at least a couple of places to make a return - so again 5 places e/w are important IMHO.
For comparative odds, Oddschecker.com is a useful site. This morning it showed:
T43 (bet365 18/1, best price 20/1 at BetVictor, Boylesport & Hills)
Cappa Bleu (bet365 14/1, only Sportingbet higher at 15/1)
Tofino Bay (bet365 33/1, none better)
Sunnyhillboy (bet365 20/1, only Coral better at 25/1)
Balthazar King (bet365 28/1, 33/1 available from various)
Across The Bay (bet365 33/1, 40/1 at Boylesports, Hills and Coral)
As regards your 6:
T43 and CB I've covered already in earlier posts and will shortly be outlining why Tofino Bay is interesting. I've backed all 3 already (all 5 places and only CB isn't NRNB as I wanted to take the price before NRNB was offered). Actually I talked about the stats for BK and SHB in earlier posts aswell but, in summary:
BALTHAZAR KING
The model gives him a credit for his jumping, as he hasn't had an F or UR for over 3 years (and that was over hurdles). His other credit is for his Festival Cross-Country win over 3m7f last season, which ticks a stamina box. Silver Birch was a close 2nd in the Festival XC shortly prior to his 2007 GN victory. Importantly, though, he also had victories in the Welsh National and in the Becher Chase to his name, both in testing conditions. These scored him a bigger stamina (and of course a GN fence) credit.
In BK's case, his only success at 3.5m+ has come in two XCs - his 2 runs over conventional fences at 28f+ have yielded 2 PUs on going that should have suited (one of these at Cheltenham where he has had success over shorter and the other in the 2011 Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3.75m). Admittedly they were both higher class chases than he was used to but he was reasonably fancied in both races (8/1 in the old "Whitbread"). The model doesn't penalise him for these failures, it's just that he doesn't register any other credits. In fact, he doesn't have a lot of negatives - but there is one.
My impression of Hobbs' GN runners over the years is that he likes to take them to Aintree fresh. Of course every horse is different but, purely from a GN stats perspective, the absence of a reasonably recent prep and/or a light campaign are negatives. BK won't have had a run for 141 days when he lines up at Aintree and has had only 2 runs all season. That lack of racing and being scratched from the XC last week are entirely understandable, given that he doesn't like soft ground, but the winner of every GN since at least 1988 (maybe further back) had a prep not more than 56 days prior. Only 3 of 24 horses placed within 10L of the GN winners had not done likewise.
The average number of runs in the season, prior to Aintree, for those GN winners was over 5 (if he were to win, BK would match Miinnehoma with the lowest number but Miinnehoma's 2 runs were 23 and 35 days before the big day). This isn't a red line negative for BK but, combined with only modest positives, from a stats-perspective my model thinks he could run nicely but is unlikely to figure at the sharp end of the race.
SUNNYHILLBOY
If mine aren't going to come in, my heart would love SHB to go a nose better than last year. He is a fine stayer (from the family of Whitbread winner Brown Windsor and sired by Old Vic, a sire of many top stayers) but he does prefer decent ground, which he got last year but may or may not get this time.
Lack of a prep (84 days since last run - please see comments on lack of a prep re Balthazar King above) has tipped the balance of his stats against a repeat of anything approaching last year, even on good ground.
Combined with a significant weight increase on last year (at least 13lbs more this time on 11.04) and 2 canters around over hurdles (PU and 23L 5th), admittedly on softer than he would have liked, being his only outings this season, for my model the negatives outweigh his proven stamina credentials and ability over the fences.
Every GN winner since 1988 has won or been placed (and <5L of the winner) in the season, prior to the big day. Same goes for all but 2 of the 24 horses finishing <10L of the GN winner. It's common now for returning winners or "near-things" to have a light campaign and each of Comply or Die (12L 2nd), Dont Push It (14L 3rd) and Ballabriggs (18L 6th) ran well in their returns after such; though all had had preps within 42 days of the big day and none had a hike as big as 13lbs to contend with.
On a subjective note, you have to be a little concerned about him scoping dirty (if that was the true reason for him missing the Gold Cup) last week and with the fact that he suffered a serious leg injury during the last GN, which may or may not give problems when put under the extreme stress of another GN.
These concerns aside, he has the ability to follow in the hoof-prints of COD and DPI and grab a place but the stats suggest other "returners" (particularly Cappa Bleu) and several GN debutants have better chances of victory.
ACROSS THE BAY - to follow
AtB is a dangerous horse from the model's perspective. On all of his stats, the model gives him virtually no chance but he had a wind operation after his 7th (74L) in the Welsh National in December in which he carried top-weight (a mission impossible) and on his return won a high quality Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2 3m hurdle on testing Haydock heavy). The model cannot take account of such things as recent wind ops (of course) - it simply considers the career stats as they are. In its view: given what he has achieved over fences, 11.02 is plenty for him to carry in a GN; he has no form over fences on anything approaching decent ground (indeed none of his 11 chases have been on anything other than Soft or Heavy) though he has some form over hurdles on better going; he has had no success in 2 attempts at beyond 3.25m (other than his 7th the Welsh National, he PU'd on heavy in the 2010 Irish National); he has never won or gone close in a Class 1 of a fieldsize more than 4; all 3 chase victories have come at minor tracks and, despite only 1 UR on his record, he's never even been placed in any chase at one of the major (stiff-jumping) tracks other than in a small field.
Since 1989, all 47 GN winners and horses placed <10L of them had previously either run well over the GN fences or in the Irish or Welsh Nationals or had a win or near-miss over fences at one of Cheltenham, Chepstow, Newbury or Leopardstown. He has no form at such tracks.
Given his handicap mark, he's obviously a better chaser than the model evaluates but then the model looks specifically at GN data whereas an OR reflects all of his chase career.
Having said all that, if you really fancy him, and/or any or all of the others, please don't let me put you off backing them. My model could easily be horribly wrong.
more articles like this and the price will reduce for T43.
If you're sticking dear old Tarquinius in you really are following me over the cliff! He would need some cut in the ground to keep up - the softer the better - but unfancied beasts have been placed before. Just depends if he takes to the fences and occasion (same goes for all of the debs of course).
Ill leave till a bit further along for the place ones.
Thanks PM. If Swing Bill came home the winner i would like to buy you a great big sloppy suet pie.
Just on unfancieds (50/1+) coming home in the money (if you have 5 places!):
In the last 10 years:
2012: 5th In Compliance 100/1
2009: 1st Mon Mome 100/1 and 5th Cerium 100/1
2007: 4th Philson Run 100/1
2006: 5th Risk Assessor 66/1
2005: 3rd Simply Gifted 66/1
2004: 5th Spotthedifference 50/1
Forecast on AccuWeather for Aintree slightly improved but still unsettled until 6 April. Could be a shock!
Best of luck.