Good spot LIG. Given the massive PR that the race carries, the last thing VC will want is the bad publicity of claims through IBAS for providing such an ambiguous banner. A call to the Racing Post would be sufficient for them to change their minds in any event.
Especially if one of Peanuts "rags" does win. Only us "blessed" followers would be on and it would be a massive winner for VC anyway!
"Rags"!?!?!?....surely you mean "one of the more interesting outsiders" AA. I'd settle for one of the Welsh boys taking the prize and Tarquinius and Major Malarkey both steaming past the Irish hot-pots at The Elbow to grab 5th and 6th. One can but dream. Indeed, good spot LLG. I trust I've not been told a porkie.
Are you trying to give me a heart-attack or something? Not drifting as far as I can see Chief.
I think Abs is saying that because VC have pushed it out to 16/1. But that's only in line with almost everywhere else and it's still trading at 17 on Betfair which is, of course, taking commission into account, less than it is with the Bookies.
Unlikely as it may be, I would also imagine that Rule 4 might be applied on NRNB if say one of the really fancied runners was pulled out. Should be enough "meat on the bone" for them not to but you never know with bookies.
Are you trying to give me a heart-attack or something? Not drifting as far as I can see Chief.
I think Abs is saying that because VC have pushed it out to 16/1. But that's only in line with almost everywhere else and it's still trading at 17 on Betfair which is, of course, taking commission into account, less than it is with the Bookies.
Ah yes. See they've pushed out the Commander a tad aswell. He's been very well supported in last couple of days. T-D and his buddies must be very happy with him in his work and have got stuck in. He is a "black swan" for the model in the sense that lack of a prep, top-weight, length of time since his GC win give him very poor stats (coming home about a furlong behind the winner) BUT if (it is a big IF mind) he were back to somewhere near his best clearly he could eat them alive off his current mark. It always gives me the heeby-jeebies having a real Champ like him in opposition. Neptune Collonges won off a mark 15lbs lower than when he had his best finish in the GC (4 years earlier), but he had a full and successful prep behind him (which left him 5lbs well-in anyway) and of course he was on 11.06. IC's mark is 16lbs lower than when winning the GC 3 years ago BUT he's had injury problems, 1 run in the last 2 years and a recent lung infection. The model says it's too big an ask, particularly with the weight rise, but he's certainly a tough old boy and surely won't go down without a fight.
IC is a true Cheltenham specialist and has only raced twice at Aintree - 3rd of 10 in Sefton Novice Hurdle in 2007 and U/R in the 2010 Bowl. It isn't a coincidence that they've kept it away from Aintree though part of the reason for that is that he always shows his best fresh and having run at the Festival, connections haven't felt the need to try to follow up at Aintree. Either way, would think he will probably be retired after this race as he clearly has issues having only made it to the track 3 times in the last 3 years and at 13 by the time Cheltenham comes round again it probably wouldn't be fair on the animal.
IC is a true Cheltenham specialist and has only raced twice at Aintree - 3rd of 10 in Sefton Novice Hurdle in 2007 and U/R in the 2010 Bowl. It isn't a coincidence that they've kept it away from Aintree though part of the reason for that is that he always shows his best fresh and having run at the Festival, connections haven't felt the need to try to follow up at Aintree. Either way, would think he will probably be retired after this race as he clearly has issues having only made it to the track 3 times in the last 3 years and at 13 by the time Cheltenham comes round again it probably wouldn't be fair on the animal.
Blimey, you may have invented a new stat AA! I remember that run in the Totesport Bowl a few weeks after he won the GC. Jumped terribly. The GN will be a very different affair to that race and he has ran well both times he's been to Haydock, another flatish track (though without the stiff fences it once had). Certainly he hasn't shone going RH on the rare occasions he's done it. However, your comments prompted me to take a quick look at the form over the Mildlay course of former GN winners and you may indeed have a case. Only 4 of them (since 1989) had run over the Mildmay chase course before winning the GN; all had either won (Royal Athlete 1/1), Mon Mome (1/1) and Dont Push It (1/3) or very nearly won Seagram (2nd 1L in only run). Cappa Bleu ran relatively moderately over it as a novice but that's irrelevant now. None of my model's other selections have done so (.................wasn't worth the cost of sending Tarquin up (or over) to Aintree no doubt!).
Seems that Wyck Hill won't run, according to JPMcManus' racing manager. If Always Waining goes for the Topham (which he should!) or another comes out, I think that gives Tarquinius a run.
Don't think it's 100% definite TB won't run at Aintree (he is still being traded small vol at inflated prices on Betfair) but it seems to be accepted that he's unlikely to (yesterday the Guardian blog commented that they have a race at Limerick in mind - seems a bit odd to me assuming he's fit and I wonder if there is still a chance for Aintree if the ground looks like being soft enough). He's been scratched from the Irish Nat on Monday. Tuesday is confirmation stage for the GN so we'll probably know for sure by then, if not earlier.
Declarations now out for Monday's Irish National at Fairyhouse (4.50pm - current going description: Heavy)
Base on a low-conviction, stat-elimination process (data from last 12 winners):
1. Weight - all less than 11.00 (10 were less than 10.06)
2. Age - 10 were younger than 10 (all younger than 11)
3. Experience - 10 (each of last 7) were second season chasers
4. Stamina - 10 had won (or been <1L runner-up) in a chase or hurdle at 3m+ (2 that hadn't [Organisedconfusion and Hear The Echo] won the INat on Gd and Gd/Y - this time likely Soft~Heavy)
5. Official Ratings - 11 rated between 125 and 136
6. Recent runs - 11 had run within last 2 months (exception [Hear The Echo] won it on Gd/Y)
It also happens that 0 were favs but nobody's told the horses what odds they were so I wouldn't go by that myself.
What does that leave us with? Only 2 tick all the boxes:
QUIETLY FANCIED 33/1 and
CARLOSWAYBACK 40/1 (Boylesports 5 places)
As I said, this is a LOW-conviction selection. The trends are all widely known though, judging by the prices, not widely followed. However, having spent much of yesterday afternoon sifting through the field, up pops an Irish website this morning tipping Quietly Fancied, based on pretty nearly identical analysis. Begorrah! I may be half Irish but they're not getting hold of my GN spreadsheet so if I see 'em tipping up Tarquinius I'll know they're just acting the maggot. Enough......I'm off to see mo chara Paddy. Crack on!
I'm going to add a 3rd to my ticket: WHODOYOUTHINK (33/1 with Boylesports and PP, both 5 places) Only box he doesn't tick is the OR (he is 1lb over at 137). Hasn't won at 3m but ticks that box as a 0.5L runner-up at 3m over hurdles on Soft in December and was going very well, 5L clear and extending lead in front when falling 4 out in the Kerry National on Hvy last September.
yep, sorry about that Off_It.....but there are 30 runners! The last INat on Heavy had Oscar Time come in 4.5L 2nd with 11.00 and at an OR of 141 so I'm figuring the OR or weight stat could be the most bendable. None of this year's runners at OR 137+ but below 11.01 are second season chasers so they fail at least 2 tests. Haven't entirely ruled out a 4th but I'm trying to figure out which other stat may bend!
Comments
I'd settle for one of the Welsh boys taking the prize and Tarquinius and Major Malarkey both steaming past the Irish hot-pots at The Elbow to grab 5th and 6th. One can but dream.
Indeed, good spot LLG. I trust I've not been told a porkie.
Have done swing bill, tarquinous and the major at bv. doing 80-1 on swing bill now.
He is a "black swan" for the model in the sense that lack of a prep, top-weight, length of time since his GC win give him very poor stats (coming home about a furlong behind the winner) BUT if (it is a big IF mind) he were back to somewhere near his best clearly he could eat them alive off his current mark.
It always gives me the heeby-jeebies having a real Champ like him in opposition.
Neptune Collonges won off a mark 15lbs lower than when he had his best finish in the GC (4 years earlier), but he had a full and successful prep behind him (which left him 5lbs well-in anyway) and of course he was on 11.06.
IC's mark is 16lbs lower than when winning the GC 3 years ago BUT he's had injury problems, 1 run in the last 2 years and a recent lung infection. The model says it's too big an ask, particularly with the weight rise, but he's certainly a tough old boy and surely won't go down without a fight.
I remember that run in the Totesport Bowl a few weeks after he won the GC. Jumped terribly. The GN will be a very different affair to that race and he has ran well both times he's been to Haydock, another flatish track (though without the stiff fences it once had). Certainly he hasn't shone going RH on the rare occasions he's done it.
However, your comments prompted me to take a quick look at the form over the Mildlay course of former GN winners and you may indeed have a case. Only 4 of them (since 1989) had run over the Mildmay chase course before winning the GN; all had either won (Royal Athlete 1/1), Mon Mome (1/1) and Dont Push It (1/3) or very nearly won Seagram (2nd 1L in only run).
Cappa Bleu ran relatively moderately over it as a novice but that's irrelevant now. None of my model's other selections have done so (.................wasn't worth the cost of sending Tarquin up (or over) to Aintree no doubt!).
Irish Nat on Monday. We'll see if we can pick another Dude.
EDIT Sorry Monday is confirmation stage for GN
Base on a low-conviction, stat-elimination process (data from last 12 winners):
1. Weight - all less than 11.00 (10 were less than 10.06)
2. Age - 10 were younger than 10 (all younger than 11)
3. Experience - 10 (each of last 7) were second season chasers
4. Stamina - 10 had won (or been <1L runner-up) in a chase or hurdle at 3m+ (2 that hadn't [Organisedconfusion and Hear The Echo] won the INat on Gd and Gd/Y - this time likely Soft~Heavy)
5. Official Ratings - 11 rated between 125 and 136
6. Recent runs - 11 had run within last 2 months (exception [Hear The Echo] won it on Gd/Y)
It also happens that 0 were favs but nobody's told the horses what odds they were so I wouldn't go by that myself.
What does that leave us with? Only 2 tick all the boxes:
QUIETLY FANCIED 33/1 and
CARLOSWAYBACK 40/1 (Boylesports 5 places)
As I said, this is a LOW-conviction selection. The trends are all widely known though, judging by the prices, not widely followed. However, having spent much of yesterday afternoon sifting through the field, up pops an Irish website this morning tipping Quietly Fancied, based on pretty nearly identical analysis. Begorrah! I may be half Irish but they're not getting hold of my GN spreadsheet so if I see 'em tipping up Tarquinius I'll know they're just acting the maggot. Enough......I'm off to see mo chara Paddy. Crack on!
Only box he doesn't tick is the OR (he is 1lb over at 137). Hasn't won at 3m but ticks that box as a 0.5L runner-up at 3m over hurdles on Soft in December and was going very well, 5L clear and extending lead in front when falling 4 out in the Kerry National on Hvy last September.
You can't be adding punts in now Peanuts - my pound note has already been invested!
The last INat on Heavy had Oscar Time come in 4.5L 2nd with 11.00 and at an OR of 141 so I'm figuring the OR or weight stat could be the most bendable. None of this year's runners at OR 137+ but below 11.01 are second season chasers so they fail at least 2 tests.
Haven't entirely ruled out a 4th but I'm trying to figure out which other stat may bend!
What happened to the original 4 then? Sorry, haven't been on for a bit and must have missed something.
The Aintree National is as previously posted.
Recent posts relate to the Irish National on Monday.