GN is 4.15 - will be over before Yann slots the winner.
Irish is 4.50 tomorrow. On that subject, I am persuaded after all to add a 4th.....PANTHER CLAW (12/1 with the 5 places bookies) The stat I'm bending here is the 2nd season novice. He ticks every box though strictly speaking is a first season novice BUT had 2 excellent runs in PtPs prior to the end of last season, so (loosely) could be said to be in his 2nd season chasing. Pedigree is strong for a test of stamina on soft~heavy. Katie Walsh rides so you can imagine the hype over Seabass in the GN if she comes home in front. So the 4 from the 30 runners tomorrow are (in no particular order): QUIETLY FANCIED 28/1 CARLOSWAYBACK 50/1 WHODOYOUTHINK 40/1 (50/1 SportingBet 4 places) PANTHER CLAW 12/1 (5 places - 16/ Ladbrokes 4 places) Luck maith
Carloswayback and Whodoyouthink it is then. £2.50 each way on each for a bumper payout and similar story for the Grand National too. There is one major problem though; my appalling betting luck. The latest example was yesterday's match when I bet £5 on Jacko scoring the winning penalty at odds of 50-1...........only for Kermo to decide he would take his first penalty for 3 years. Unbelievable. Gutted of Orpington!
Blimey, I guess you've got the wrong two then meldrew66 ;o) If you scale the bets you can make a small profit with one place backing all 4, if you take the 16/1 for 4 places at Ladbrokes for Panther Claw. I really hate picking between the eligibles (guaranteed to miss the scorer) and would rather bank on filling at least 2 of the places but it's a personal thing.
I only have a few bets each year as i take the view that bookies play the long game meaning the more often you bet the more likely they are to beat you. But the fact that Magnanimity is running in the Irish rather than the more profitable English suggests connections feel he has a chance of picking up some prize money.
Cheers AA. He didn't make my final list, 3 of whom are now drifting, at least with Victor (best price in the market). Quietly Fancied clearly isn't any longer - now 33/1 Whodoyouthink 50/1 Carloswayback 66/1 Panther Claw still 12/1 (14/1 at Ladbrokes) ..............it's written in the stats Vic.
Strewth, now they're all shortening again (28, 40, 40, 12 respectively). A few little morsels: - the last winning Fav in the Irish National was in the last millennium - Willie Mullins has never won the Irish Grand National - 4 of the last 5 winners were 25/1+ (3 were 33/1) - 47% of the 1~5 places in the last 6 runnings were filled by 25~66/1 shots .............is the trend our friend or should we expect mean reversion? We'll find out tomorrow.
Cheers mon ami, long time no entendre. Finished university? Could be the year of the big anti-climax for the model but I have to say I fancy it's Wales' year. Interesting piece on T43...."He hates staying away from home, his fussy and irregular eating habits are largely nocturnal and he prefers to be alone"..... ....takes after Plaaayer then..... ;o)
Are you sure the Major is #40 and not first Reserve? I thought he'd been dropped 1lb after Uttoxeter and, since they were both allotted the same weight, Poker De Sivola would be ahead of him. If so, I think 49 left means he's #41.
Blimey, Whodoyouthink is a NR this pm, having been "declared in error"????!!!!!
Yeap, Panther Claw (mentioned yesterday) - 12/1. Ticks all the boxes if you "bend" the second season chaser definition (not unreasonable to do so since he had 2 good runs in PtPs last season) but looks good on pedigree and form aswell as stats. Related to a Thyestes chase winner, sired by Old Vic and dam-sire was Roselier - both of these sired many great stayers and he should relish a test of stamina. Only raced on soft/heavy but Yielding/Soft shouldn't be a problem at this trip. Was 1.25L 2nd to Rich Revival at levels in December over 21f (gets 6lbs from RR today). 3 wins and only once out of the frame in 6 chases and 2 PtPs.
Not the least bizarre aspect of the trainer declaring Whodoyouthink "in error" for Ireland's richest steeplechase (aside from taking 3 days to tell anyone), is that he was only a whisker away from bumping out his only other runner (owned by the same owner), the quietly fancied Quietly Fancied (#30 in the declarations). "Ninny" I think is the operative word (unless he's saddled the winner come 5pm of course).
Done who do you think with bet victor but not sure ill get the wedge back. Only done 2.50 e/w
Should do, declarations were on Friday and so the market was not ante-post. I placed the bet on Panther Claw by phone with Ladbrokes yesterday and they were definitely NRNB. I did WDYT with both Boylesports and BetVictor and not anticipating a problem with return of stake but neither has updated as yet for his withdrawal.
The Major's # 41 according to the Post's updated card, still 3 days to decs (2 came out after confirmations last year, 3 in both the previous two years) so could still make it and as (worst-case) first reserve he would get a run if something was scratched by Friday am. Fingers crossed. If he does get in, I would have to be the only person in the cosmos who would advise Sam T-D to ride The Major rather than The Commander...................I think I must be insane.
The Major's # 41 according to the Post's updated card, still 3 days to decs (2 came out after confirmations last year, 3 in both the previous two years) so could still make it and as (worst-case) first reserve he would get a run if something was scratched by Friday am. Fingers crossed. If he does get in, I would have to be the only person in the cosmos who would advise Sam T-D to ride The Major rather than The Commander...................I think I must be insane.
What odds the Commander comes out Peanuts ;-) Followed by a plunge on the Major.
Comments
Irish is 4.50 tomorrow.
On that subject, I am persuaded after all to add a 4th.....PANTHER CLAW (12/1 with the 5 places bookies)
The stat I'm bending here is the 2nd season novice.
He ticks every box though strictly speaking is a first season novice BUT had 2 excellent runs in PtPs prior to the end of last season, so (loosely) could be said to be in his 2nd season chasing. Pedigree is strong for a test of stamina on soft~heavy. Katie Walsh rides so you can imagine the hype over Seabass in the GN if she comes home in front.
So the 4 from the 30 runners tomorrow are (in no particular order):
QUIETLY FANCIED 28/1
CARLOSWAYBACK 50/1
WHODOYOUTHINK 40/1 (50/1 SportingBet 4 places)
PANTHER CLAW 12/1 (5 places - 16/ Ladbrokes 4 places)
Luck maith
If you scale the bets you can make a small profit with one place backing all 4, if you take the 16/1 for 4 places at Ladbrokes for Panther Claw. I really hate picking between the eligibles (guaranteed to miss the scorer) and would rather bank on filling at least 2 of the places but it's a personal thing.
Quietly Fancied clearly isn't any longer - now 33/1
Whodoyouthink 50/1
Carloswayback 66/1
Panther Claw still 12/1 (14/1 at Ladbrokes)
..............it's written in the stats Vic.
A few little morsels:
- the last winning Fav in the Irish National was in the last millennium
- Willie Mullins has never won the Irish Grand National
- 4 of the last 5 winners were 25/1+ (3 were 33/1)
- 47% of the 1~5 places in the last 6 runnings were filled by 25~66/1 shots
.............is the trend our friend or should we expect mean reversion? We'll find out tomorrow.
Great work as ever Peanuts, a little more info on T43 for those wanting to know more
Finished university?
Could be the year of the big anti-climax for the model but I have to say I fancy it's Wales' year.
Interesting piece on T43...."He hates staying away from home, his fussy and irregular eating habits are largely nocturnal and he prefers to be alone".....
....takes after Plaaayer then..... ;o)
Blimey, Whodoyouthink is a NR this pm, having been "declared in error"????!!!!!
Thanks for the info. Can't understand why the Post takes so long to announce the confirmations.
Got a couple of quid on Carloswayback and quietly fancied already
Ticks all the boxes if you "bend" the second season chaser definition (not unreasonable to do so since he had 2 good runs in PtPs last season) but looks good on pedigree and form aswell as stats.
Related to a Thyestes chase winner, sired by Old Vic and dam-sire was Roselier - both of these sired many great stayers and he should relish a test of stamina. Only raced on soft/heavy but Yielding/Soft shouldn't be a problem at this trip. Was 1.25L 2nd to Rich Revival at levels in December over 21f (gets 6lbs from RR today). 3 wins and only once out of the frame in 6 chases and 2 PtPs.
Not the least bizarre aspect of the trainer declaring Whodoyouthink "in error" for Ireland's richest steeplechase (aside from taking 3 days to tell anyone), is that he was only a whisker away from bumping out his only other runner (owned by the same owner), the quietly fancied Quietly Fancied (#30 in the declarations). "Ninny" I think is the operative word (unless he's saddled the winner come 5pm of course).
Done who do you think with bet victor but not sure ill get the wedge back. Only done 2.50 e/w
If he does get in, I would have to be the only person in the cosmos who would advise Sam T-D to ride The Major rather than The Commander...................I think I must be insane.
Quietly Fancied
Whodoyouthink
Carloswayback
Panther Claw
?????
....that would be funny AA, even if it meant another 1lb to carry for my #1