The Tote paid £103.70 on the winner. Over £1,000 for the straight f/c.
Even better - Betfair SP £139.85
Just so you know Peanuts there is a certain Charlton fanatic who writes for the Racing Post by the name of the Richard Birch who today recommended two horses for the GN - Cappa Bleu and Teaforthree. If I were you I would consult a good lawyer even if it does mean taking a fellow supporter to court for plagiarism!
Clearly an exceptionally astute chap......but real men have Swing Bill & The Major on their ticket aswell......Go on Richard, you know you want to ;o)
Peanuts, my dad ('LenGlover') and I had a look at Lost Glory and thought the form didn't look too bad. We wondered what your model made of him?
OK, Lost Glory: I certainly understand why he’s piqued your interest and I wouldn’t want to deter you from backing him, whatever my model’s rating. Not least because I strongly suspect that at least one unfancied name will make the first 6 again this year. Why? Interestingly, the last time there was a weight rise of 4lbs+ (at all infact) after the handicapper framed them was in 2009 (+ 8lbs). That year, we had a 100/1 winner [a comfortable 12L clear of a returning winner] and another 100/1 shot came in 5th. Of course there is no direct cause and effect of weight hike and shock result and the way the 2009 race panned out in running certainly helped produce the result. However, the withdrawals of Tidal Bay and Albertas Run have half-neutered the weight compression and, according to the model and in light of their other stats, materially damaged the prospects for 4 of the top 10 in the market: a) Weights have risen from tough (in varying degrees) to unwinnable levels for returning GN heroes: Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Ballabriggs and Big Fella Thanks b) The remaining 3 runners favoured by the compression (Imperial Commander, What A Friend and Weird Al) have either had interrupted campaigns and/or missed preps or just plain poor seasons. Either way, poor stats. Two of these (Seabass and Ballabriggs are still rated as having “big run- no cigar” potential) and there are plenty of leading fancies unaffected by the weight hike but, arguably, the door is open a little wider than it has been recently for a long-shot or two to be in the money. So, will Lost Glory be one of the surprise packages? Positives: He was certainly having a good season up to October - 4 wins (from 6 runs), his best being his last run, a 3m Class 2 at Chepstow (ticks major jumps track success and large field winner boxes) in which he gave recent Festival winner Golden Chieftain 6lbs and a 17L beating. He was off a mark of 135 in that win but was put up 7lbs and runs off 142 at Aintree. Carrying a very manageable 10.08, my model’s not bothered about that OR rise. Negatives: • The long break since that win was presumably because he wants decent ground (which he should get at Aintree) but, from a GN stats-perspective, 175 days since last run is well over the max of any GN winner since 1988 (56 the longest). Not the be-all-and-end-all because several placed horses (incl close runners-up) in the GN were similar or hadn't even had a run that season: Durham Edition 2nd [0.75] in 1990 - 102 days since last run Mely Moss 2nd [1.25L] in 2000 - 345 days Clan Royal 2nd [3L - should have won] in 2004 - 132 days State Of Play made the frame 3 years in succession - 99~364 days • However, unlike any of these, he's also an 8 year-old. While two 8y-os have won the GN since 1988 (Party Politics in 1992 and Bindaree in 2002), it does take an accomplished one with mental and physical maturity to run well. PP had been 2nd in both the Hennessy and the Welsh National and Bindaree had been 3rd in the Welsh National and had run creditably over the GN fences (a 22f chase) a year earlier. Seven 8y-os have been closely-placed in the GN (<10L of the winner) and most were similarly accomplished: Garrison Savannah 2nd 1991 - Gold Cup winner Romany King 2nd 1992 – close 3rd in the Racing Post Chase Whats Up Boys 2nd 2002 - Hennessy winner & 4th Welsh Nat Lord Atterbury 3rd 2004 – (the least accomplished) was a hunter chaser but a 4m1f winner at Cheltenham & had a good win over the Mildmay course at Aintree to his credit McKelvey 2nd 2007 - won the 4m1f Summer National and creditable run over GN fences Slim Pickings 3rd 2007 – won a 3m Listed chase and a strong prep at the Cheltenham Festival Snowy Morning 3rd 2008 – 2nd to Denman in the RSA chase and 3rd in the Irish Hennessy • For all Lost Glory’s success, including 2 wins at 3.25m, it has been in relatively moderate company. He was in full swing when he defeated Golden Chieftain, who was having his seasonal debut. He’s never raced in a Class 1 chase and his only run at 3.5m was a remote 2nd in an ordinary affair at Stratford. • Finally, though there’s no reason to suppose he would not get on with another jockey, he has most of his racing (and all of his winning) under McCoy. As a JP McManus horse, AP could have chosen to ride him but he’s already passed him over for either Sunnyhillboy or Colbert Station. One curiosity, which you may or may not take comfort from (my model doesn’t take account of birthplace), he is New Zealand bred and they have scored 3 wins in the GN: Moifaa (1904 – an 8 year-old!), Seagram (1991) and Lord Gyllene (1997). Overall, my model doesn’t think he’ll be in the shake-up but don’t let me put you off backing him if you fancy him. It certainly isn’t a crystal ball. Good luck and best regards to Len G – the voice of reason.
going now Good to Soft (Good in places). convinced we now wont see Heavy going.
The only chance is that, having watered, there's an unexpected downpour on the day...highly improbable looking at the forecast.
On the subject of the going, having announced that Good-to-Soft was their target to make the race safer, predictably they've now shifted that to mix of Gd(GS places) or GS(Gd) places) A bad move IMHO, not least because their assessment of the going is now habitually inaccurate and Gd(GS places) is precisely how they described the going prior to the Off for the last 3 GNs. As I said last year, after the fatalities of Synchronised and According To Pete, the problem has been SPEED partly caused by the higher quality fields prompted by compression of the handicap and, ironically, partly by making some of the fences slightly "easier". Therefore, the only way of reducing speed is to water sufficiently to ensure no quicker than proper GS. If it rains and it goes soft or heavy so be it - they are slogs and many runners don't complete but typically they have few fatalties. I wrote to Aintree to put the case (like a zillion others no doubt). This is an extract (the facts about going description and time are pertinent):
"Aintree targets "safe jumping ground" and defines that as Good (Good-to-Soft places). That sounds reasonable but is surely not consistent with winners regularly recording times faster than standard. Comply Or Die won in 2008 on officially Gd(GS) in a time 6.6secs slow of std but the winner of each of the last 3 Nationals posted a time comfortably faster than standard, clocking (respectively) the 6th, 3rd and 7th fastest times ever, all on the same official going prior to the race of Gd(GS). Even allowing for omitted fences, these times were appreciably faster than they should have been on the stated going."
I got no reply but there seemed to be confirmation they were thinking along similar lines when the Telegraph ran the piece recently quoting Lord Daresbury as saying that quick ground GNs are a thing of the past. I fear this may not be so and greatly fear for the race from the consequences.
In any event, with likely Gd(GS) or GS(Gd) going, probably too quick for Tarquinius, I'm hoping he will be scratched, thereby returning my stake and giving (now # 41) Major Malarkey a run on ground he should enjoy.
Apparently William Hill commissioned him to do the research, which includes a stat based upon the horse's name. Maybe irrational but hey-ho, Seabass as first pick is fairly uncontroversial. However, do you think Hills have spotted that Tatenen - his 2nd pick - isn't quite a "former Grand National winner". Regrettably it isn't possible to take the prize if you Unseat at the 8th. Still, he's got a corking name, though I prefer Victor Chandler's assessment that he'd need to join them on the 2nd circuit to have a sniff of completing. SERENITY NOW!
Peanuts - gone for Major Malarky @ 80:1 based on your recommendations. Gonna be a big payout on Saturday, I reckon.
Blimey, Vic's slashed him from 150. Just to be clear, he is a value place bet on his stats, not a win candidate so important to take Vic's 6 places, even if others are at 100/1 (IMHO)
Win Candidates - they have their own ground prefs but best stats in the field (according to my model) for being in the money whatever the going (prices shown on BetVictor [6 places & NRNB]): Teaforthree 14/1 Cappa Bleu 10/1 (elsewhere 11/1 [5 places], 12/1 [4 places]) Swing Bill 50/1 (elsewhere 66/1 [5 places]) (would drop to place candidate only if ground were good or quicker but watering is meant to prevent this)
Place Candidates: Tarquinius 100/1 (4th best stats on Soft or Heavy but this looking unlikely - joint 8th on Good-to-Soft, forget him on Good) Major Malarkey 80/1 (Paddy Power 100/1 [5 places & NRNB]) (joint 6th best stats with Seabass and On His Own on Good - joint 8th on Good-to-Soft, forget him on Soft) (needs 1 to come out to get a run so make sure bookies are NRNB)
I thank u muchly and will head to bookies forth with
Do you think if i place bet tomoz its better to take odds as of today or let it go and see what happens based on weather
Of significance only for the place candidates, no need to hesitate on the top 3. I'm very suspicious about their going descriptions, not a conspiracy thing, just that how the course rides is often different to the description. I will be timing the Foxhunters chase on Thursday pm (over the GN course) to see how it is riding, compared to previous years. Obviously it could change further before Saturday but the forecast seems to be mainly dry for Friday and Saturday so we should have a pretty good idea on Thursday how much on the soft side of good it's likely to be.
Here we go, the Cambridge Maths Whiz's System (courtesy of the Mail Online):
THE FORMULA IN FULL
Number of letters in the horse’s name 8, 10 = 4 points 7 = 3 points 6, 11 = 2 points 9, 12 = 1 point
First letter of horse’s name R = 4 points A, S, M = 3 points C, T = 2 points G, B, W = 1 point
Number of words in horse’s name 1 = 4 points 2 = 3 points 3 = 2 points 4 = 1 point
Age of horse 9 = 4 points 10 = 3 points 8, 11 = 2 points 12 = 1 point
The 9 highest-scoring horses based on the William Hartston scoring system 1. Seabass 13/16 (consistently high in all categories) 2. Tatenen 13/16 3. Teaforthree 12/16 4. Rare Bob 12/16 5. Mr Moonshine 12/16 6. Romanesco 11/16 7. Sunnyhillboy 11/16 8. Quel Esprit 11/16 9. Any Currency 11/16
For what its worth here are my views on the top quarter of the runners quoted on Oddschecker
On His Own - Faller Seabass - Unplaced finisher Cappa Bleu - Top 3 finish Colbert Station - Finisher, possibly top 6 Chicago Grey - Faller Teaforthree - Winner by a long way, although the jockey might ease up when he knows he has won Imperial Commander - Pulled Up (too much weight) Sunnyhillboy - Unplaced finisher Join Together - Possibly a minor placing, better chance next year as a 9 year old Ballabriggs - Unplaced finisher Balthazar King - Top 3 finish Rare Bob - Unplaced finisher (possibly last)
By looking at the stats. Anything that has fallen 3 times or more will struggle to get round. Horses that tend to run with the pack will get into trouble with so many runners and if a horse has fallen in the race before there is every reason to expect him to do it again.
Peanuts, my dad ('LenGlover') and I had a look at Lost Glory and thought the form didn't look too bad. We wondered what your model made of him?
OK, Lost Glory: I certainly understand why he’s piqued your interest and I wouldn’t want to deter you from backing him, whatever my model’s rating. Not least because I strongly suspect that at least one unfancied name will make the first 6 again this year. Why? Interestingly, the last time there was a weight rise of 4lbs+ (at all infact) after the handicapper framed them was in 2009 (+ 8lbs). That year, we had a 100/1 winner [a comfortable 12L clear of a returning winner] and another 100/1 shot came in 5th. Of course there is no direct cause and effect of weight hike and shock result and the way the 2009 race panned out in running certainly helped produce the result. However, the withdrawals of Tidal Bay and Albertas Run have half-neutered the weight compression and, according to the model and in light of their other stats, materially damaged the prospects for 4 of the top 10 in the market: a) Weights have risen from tough (in varying degrees) to unwinnable levels for returning GN heroes: Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Ballabriggs and Big Fella Thanks b) The remaining 3 runners favoured by the compression (Imperial Commander, What A Friend and Weird Al) have either had interrupted campaigns and/or missed preps or just plain poor seasons. Either way, poor stats. Two of these (Seabass and Ballabriggs are still rated as having “big run- no cigar” potential) and there are plenty of leading fancies unaffected by the weight hike but, arguably, the door is open a little wider than it has been recently for a long-shot or two to be in the money. So, will Lost Glory be one of the surprise packages? Positives: He was certainly having a good season up to October - 4 wins (from 6 runs), his best being his last run, a 3m Class 2 at Chepstow (ticks major jumps track success and large field winner boxes) in which he gave recent Festival winner Golden Chieftain 6lbs and a 17L beating. He was off a mark of 135 in that win but was put up 7lbs and runs off 142 at Aintree. Carrying a very manageable 10.08, my model’s not bothered about that OR rise. Negatives: • The long break since that win was presumably because he wants decent ground (which he should get at Aintree) but, from a GN stats-perspective, 175 days since last run is well over the max of any GN winner since 1988 (56 the longest). Not the be-all-and-end-all because several placed horses (incl close runners-up) in the GN were similar or hadn't even had a run that season: Durham Edition 2nd [0.75] in 1990 - 102 days since last run Mely Moss 2nd [1.25L] in 2000 - 345 days Clan Royal 2nd [3L - should have won] in 2004 - 132 days State Of Play made the frame 3 years in succession - 99~364 days • However, unlike any of these, he's also an 8 year-old. While two 8y-os have won the GN since 1988 (Party Politics in 1992 and Bindaree in 2002), it does take an accomplished one with mental and physical maturity to run well. PP had been 2nd in both the Hennessy and the Welsh National and Bindaree had been 3rd in the Welsh National and had run creditably over the GN fences (a 22f chase) a year earlier. Seven 8y-os have been closely-placed in the GN (
Thanks for that! We decided to stick £1 e/w (6places) 66/1 ... But we have backed your suggestions too! Thanks for all the tips!
Comments
I certainly understand why he’s piqued your interest and I wouldn’t want to deter you from backing him, whatever my model’s rating. Not least because I strongly suspect that at least one unfancied name will make the first 6 again this year. Why?
Interestingly, the last time there was a weight rise of 4lbs+ (at all infact) after the handicapper framed them was in 2009 (+ 8lbs). That year, we had a 100/1 winner [a comfortable 12L clear of a returning winner] and another 100/1 shot came in 5th. Of course there is no direct cause and effect of weight hike and shock result and the way the 2009 race panned out in running certainly helped produce the result. However, the withdrawals of Tidal Bay and Albertas Run have half-neutered the weight compression and, according to the model and in light of their other stats, materially damaged the prospects for 4 of the top 10 in the market:
a) Weights have risen from tough (in varying degrees) to unwinnable levels for returning GN heroes: Seabass, Sunnyhillboy, Ballabriggs and Big Fella Thanks
b) The remaining 3 runners favoured by the compression (Imperial Commander, What A Friend and Weird Al) have either had interrupted campaigns and/or missed preps or just plain poor seasons. Either way, poor stats.
Two of these (Seabass and Ballabriggs are still rated as having “big run- no cigar” potential) and there are plenty of leading fancies unaffected by the weight hike but, arguably, the door is open a little wider than it has been recently for a long-shot or two to be in the money.
So, will Lost Glory be one of the surprise packages?
Positives:
He was certainly having a good season up to October - 4 wins (from 6 runs), his best being his last run, a 3m Class 2 at Chepstow (ticks major jumps track success and large field winner boxes) in which he gave recent Festival winner Golden Chieftain 6lbs and a 17L beating. He was off a mark of 135 in that win but was put up 7lbs and runs off 142 at Aintree. Carrying a very manageable 10.08, my model’s not bothered about that OR rise.
Negatives:
• The long break since that win was presumably because he wants decent ground (which he should get at Aintree) but, from a GN stats-perspective, 175 days since last run is well over the max of any GN winner since 1988 (56 the longest). Not the be-all-and-end-all because several placed horses (incl close runners-up) in the GN were similar or hadn't even had a run that season:
Durham Edition 2nd [0.75] in 1990 - 102 days since last run
Mely Moss 2nd [1.25L] in 2000 - 345 days
Clan Royal 2nd [3L - should have won] in 2004 - 132 days
State Of Play made the frame 3 years in succession - 99~364 days
• However, unlike any of these, he's also an 8 year-old. While two 8y-os have won the GN since 1988 (Party Politics in 1992 and Bindaree in 2002), it does take an accomplished one with mental and physical maturity to run well. PP had been 2nd in both the Hennessy and the Welsh National and Bindaree had been 3rd in the Welsh National and had run creditably over the GN fences (a 22f chase) a year earlier.
Seven 8y-os have been closely-placed in the GN (<10L of the winner) and most were similarly accomplished:
Garrison Savannah 2nd 1991 - Gold Cup winner
Romany King 2nd 1992 – close 3rd in the Racing Post Chase
Whats Up Boys 2nd 2002 - Hennessy winner & 4th Welsh Nat
Lord Atterbury 3rd 2004 – (the least accomplished) was a hunter chaser but a 4m1f winner at Cheltenham & had a good win over the Mildmay course at Aintree to his credit
McKelvey 2nd 2007 - won the 4m1f Summer National and creditable run over GN fences
Slim Pickings 3rd 2007 – won a 3m Listed chase and a strong prep at the Cheltenham Festival
Snowy Morning 3rd 2008 – 2nd to Denman in the RSA chase and 3rd in the Irish Hennessy
• For all Lost Glory’s success, including 2 wins at 3.25m, it has been in relatively moderate company. He was in full swing when he defeated Golden Chieftain, who was having his seasonal debut. He’s never raced in a Class 1 chase and his only run at 3.5m was a remote 2nd in an ordinary affair at Stratford.
• Finally, though there’s no reason to suppose he would not get on with another jockey, he has most of his racing (and all of his winning) under McCoy. As a JP McManus horse, AP could have chosen to ride him but he’s already passed him over for either Sunnyhillboy or Colbert Station.
One curiosity, which you may or may not take comfort from (my model doesn’t take account of birthplace), he is New Zealand bred and they have scored 3 wins in the GN: Moifaa (1904 – an 8 year-old!), Seagram (1991) and Lord Gyllene (1997).
Overall, my model doesn’t think he’ll be in the shake-up but don’t let me put you off backing him if you fancy him. It certainly isn’t a crystal ball.
Good luck and best regards to Len G – the voice of reason.
On the subject of the going, having announced that Good-to-Soft was their target to make the race safer, predictably they've now shifted that to mix of Gd(GS places) or GS(Gd) places)
A bad move IMHO, not least because their assessment of the going is now habitually inaccurate and Gd(GS places) is precisely how they described the going prior to the Off for the last 3 GNs.
As I said last year, after the fatalities of Synchronised and According To Pete, the problem has been SPEED partly caused by the higher quality fields prompted by compression of the handicap and, ironically, partly by making some of the fences slightly "easier". Therefore, the only way of reducing speed is to water sufficiently to ensure no quicker than proper GS. If it rains and it goes soft or heavy so be it - they are slogs and many runners don't complete but typically they have few fatalties.
I wrote to Aintree to put the case (like a zillion others no doubt).
This is an extract (the facts about going description and time are pertinent):
"Aintree targets "safe jumping ground" and defines that as Good (Good-to-Soft places). That sounds reasonable but is surely not consistent with winners regularly recording times faster than standard. Comply Or Die won in 2008 on officially Gd(GS) in a time 6.6secs slow of std but the winner of each of the last 3 Nationals posted a time comfortably faster than standard, clocking (respectively) the 6th, 3rd and 7th fastest times ever, all on the same official going prior to the race of Gd(GS). Even allowing for omitted fences, these times were appreciably faster than they should have been on the stated going."
I got no reply but there seemed to be confirmation they were thinking along similar lines when the Telegraph ran the piece recently quoting Lord Daresbury as saying that quick ground GNs are a thing of the past. I fear this may not be so and greatly fear for the race from the consequences.
In any event, with likely Gd(GS) or GS(Gd) going, probably too quick for Tarquinius, I'm hoping he will be scratched, thereby returning my stake and giving (now # 41) Major Malarkey a run on ground he should enjoy.
http://www.clickliverpool.com/news/uk-news/1218530-maths-whizz-picks-liverpool-grand-national-winner.html
Apparently William Hill commissioned him to do the research, which includes a stat based upon the horse's name. Maybe irrational but hey-ho, Seabass as first pick is fairly uncontroversial.
However, do you think Hills have spotted that Tatenen - his 2nd pick - isn't quite a "former Grand National winner". Regrettably it isn't possible to take the prize if you Unseat at the 8th. Still, he's got a corking name, though I prefer Victor Chandler's assessment that he'd need to join them on the 2nd circuit to have a sniff of completing.
SERENITY NOW!
Only 9 others in contention if you're nutty enough to go with it.
Just to be clear, he is a value place bet on his stats, not a win candidate so important to take Vic's 6 places, even if others are at 100/1 (IMHO)
Sorry pal to save me looking througb all 7 pages
Who was your top 3 for this year
Swing Bill
Cappa Bleu
One of these should win.
Major Malarkey
Tarquinius
Both could be placed.
Teaforthree 14/1
Cappa Bleu 10/1 (elsewhere 11/1 [5 places], 12/1 [4 places])
Swing Bill 50/1 (elsewhere 66/1 [5 places]) (would drop to place candidate only if ground were good or quicker but watering is meant to prevent this)
Place Candidates:
Tarquinius 100/1 (4th best stats on Soft or Heavy but this looking unlikely - joint 8th on Good-to-Soft, forget him on Good)
Major Malarkey 80/1 (Paddy Power 100/1 [5 places & NRNB]) (joint 6th best stats with Seabass and On His Own on Good - joint 8th on Good-to-Soft, forget him on Soft) (needs 1 to come out to get a run so make sure bookies are NRNB)
Do you think if i place bet tomoz its better to take odds as of today or let it go and see what happens based on weather
I'm very suspicious about their going descriptions, not a conspiracy thing, just that how the course rides is often different to the description.
I will be timing the Foxhunters chase on Thursday pm (over the GN course) to see how it is riding, compared to previous years. Obviously it could change further before Saturday but the forecast seems to be mainly dry for Friday and Saturday so we should have a pretty good idea on Thursday how much on the soft side of good it's likely to be.
And u need to hope i aint ob or your going darn my son
THE FORMULA IN FULL
Number of letters in the horse’s name
8, 10 = 4 points
7 = 3 points
6, 11 = 2 points
9, 12 = 1 point
First letter of horse’s name
R = 4 points
A, S, M = 3 points
C, T = 2 points
G, B, W = 1 point
Number of words in horse’s name
1 = 4 points
2 = 3 points
3 = 2 points
4 = 1 point
Age of horse
9 = 4 points
10 = 3 points
8, 11 = 2 points
12 = 1 point
The 9 highest-scoring horses based on the William Hartston scoring system
1. Seabass 13/16 (consistently high in all categories)
2. Tatenen 13/16
3. Teaforthree 12/16
4. Rare Bob 12/16
5. Mr Moonshine 12/16
6. Romanesco 11/16
7. Sunnyhillboy 11/16
8. Quel Esprit 11/16
9. Any Currency 11/16
On His Own - Faller
Seabass - Unplaced finisher
Cappa Bleu - Top 3 finish
Colbert Station - Finisher, possibly top 6
Chicago Grey - Faller
Teaforthree - Winner by a long way, although the jockey might ease up when he knows he has won
Imperial Commander - Pulled Up (too much weight)
Sunnyhillboy - Unplaced finisher
Join Together - Possibly a minor placing, better chance next year as a 9 year old
Ballabriggs - Unplaced finisher
Balthazar King - Top 3 finish
Rare Bob - Unplaced finisher (possibly last)