Re The Major, T-D's views in the Grauniad: "On good ground, he'd have a very good chance. He's not as good as the Commander, but he's a real stayer." There you have it...............OK, OK he would say that wouldn't he.....
Len90, I'm presuming you are not.a Charlton fan. Out of interest, how did you come across this site / thread ?
Nope, I'm a Millwall fan (or was until terraces were replaced with seats). Someone on the Millwall site posted a link to Peanuts Grand National model and i was nosey enough to take a look.
Len90, I'm presuming you are not.a Charlton fan. Out of interest, how did you come across this site / thread ?
Nope, I'm a Millwall fan (or was until terraces were replaced with seats). Someone on the Millwall site posted a link to Peanuts Grand National model and i was nosey enough to take a look.
That explains your misogyny re Kate Walsh earlier in the thread
Len90, I'm presuming you are not.a Charlton fan. Out of interest, how did you come across this site / thread ?
Nope, I'm a Millwall fan (or was until terraces were replaced with seats). Someone on the Millwall site posted a link to Peanuts Grand National model and i was nosey enough to take a look.
I just don't think a woman is physically strong enough to win a National. Seabass can just about get the distance. If Ruby was riding him instead of Katie i think he would have a much better chance.
I just don't think a woman is physically strong enough to win a National. Seabass can just about get the distance. If Ruby was riding him instead of Katie i think he would have a much better chance.
Len90, I'm presuming you are not.a Charlton fan. Out of interest, how did you come across this site / thread ?
Nope, I'm a Millwall fan (or was until terraces were replaced with seats). Someone on the Millwall site posted a link to Peanuts Grand National model and i was nosey enough to take a look.
Blimey, does that make me No.1 in South London? ;o)
Re women jocks len. To be fair, having Ruby or AP on board would benefit any horse in comparison with most other jockeys, male or female. It's just as important to get a tune out of a horse as it is to have muscle to use at the business end (Timmy Murphy and Paul Carberry are perfect examples). For some reason, female jockies (the best ones anyway) seem to be very good at just that so, personally, I really wouldn't regard Nina Carberry or Katie Walsh or a top amateur for that matter as necessarily being a liability, even in the GN. Amateurs have won it not that long ago (Dick Saunders on Grittar in 1982 and Marcus Armytage on Mr Frisk in 1990) and Waley-Cohen came very close only 2 years back (Maguire using a tad too much muscle for my liking to hold him off). Nina Carberry won the Irish 2 years ago. If I were a Seabass backer, for sure I'd rather have Ruby on board but, in his absence, I'd rather see Katie ride him than any other jock, since she obviously gets on with him.
As for your predictions for those 12, that'll do me. Barring one or two differences, it's pretty similar how my model sees it if the going is a mix of good and good-to-soft, which seems very likely. It sees Ballabriggs, Seabass, On His Own as contending for minor places instead of Colbert Stat (with Major Malarkey closing on them rapidly at the line!) and prefers Swing Bill to Balthazar King; otherwise T43 good for a c.10L win and Cappa Bleu clear runner-up - big proviso is they need to avoid misfortune in running of course.
Peanuts- when can I expect bet365 to refund by NRNB stake for Tofino Bay? I placed it on 20th March which was after the date you stated they were offering the NRNB deal so I'm hoping that's the case. It says 'to run' against that horse on the bet slip. Any ideas matey? Also, if my £20 stake IS refunded, what's the latest word on Lost Glory? I'm already on T43, Cappeu Bleu, Tarquinius and Swing Bill. Also added Across The Bay and Major Malarkey too so is there one more worth a £20 punt......or do you recommend I just cash in the £20?
Bet365 cut the Major to 50/1 Still 100/1 for 5 places with PP or (IMHO better value) 80/1 with Victor for 6 places. Ed Chamberlin reckons he is the only no-hoper in the field on Saturday (.........you'd get better advice from Fawlty's Moose) However he runs, he is certainly not a no-hoper, and here's why: On his dam's side, he's closely related to Valley Henry (13L 4th to Best Mate in the Gold Cup) but his sire, Supreme Leader, who also sired GN runners-up Whats Up Boys and Supreme Glory, brings more stamina to his pedigree. He's had some poor runs this season but on ground that is too soft for him (he's still registered a close 2nd over 3.75m on it though, off the same mark of 133 that he has on Saturday). A year ago, the last time he had ground better than soft, he was an in-touch-all-the-way, strong-staying 0.75L 2nd over 4.25m on GS in the Midlands National. In fact, except for a UR by an amateur, in his last 6 chases on Gd or GS (all 3~4.25m) he has won or finished within 6.75L of the winner in all of them. Excepting that UR, he hasn't tipped up for over 4 years. Unlike Tarquinius, he has the pace to remain in touch in a Gd/GS ground National. He was a steal at 150/1 a week ago. IMHO, he is still excellent value each-way at 80/1. I know he's 32 Place on Betfair but you only get 4 places there and aside from the extra 2 bites of the cherry, while it would be more of a shock than even dear old Mon Mome, do you really want to miss it if he gets his nose in front on the line? Click on Vic and GET ON.
Peanuts- when can I expect bet365 to refund by NRNB stake for Tofino Bay? I placed it on 20th March which was after the date you stated they were offering the NRNB deal so I'm hoping that's the case. It says 'to run' against that horse on the bet slip. Any ideas matey? Also, if my £20 stake IS refunded, what's the latest word on Lost Glory? I'm already on T43, Cappeu Bleu, Tarquinius and Swing Bill. Also added Across The Bay and Major Malarkey too so is there one more worth a £20 punt......or do you recommend I just cash in the £20?
I was in same boat. It was definitely NRNB. I rang them just now and got some egit you didn't seem to realise that TB has been taken out and said that refunds would automatically be made after decs. However, having checked he was scratched, he refunded the stakes. Suggest you ring them 08000 288 365 and ask them to do likewise if you don't want to wait until. Not sinister I think, just disorganised. I gave my thoughts on Lost Glory yesterday. Having 6 running for you is enough in my book but it's a personal thing - if you fancy something else at a high price you'd probably kick yourself if he scored and you'd passed him over. Good luck.
Tom Scudamore's never ridden him before but no problem (hopefully). Jocks coming in for spare (first-time) rides in the GN and winning (a place will do!):
Party Politics (1992) - Carl Llewellyn (asst to T-D of course) Royal Athlete (1995) - Jason Titley Bindaree (2002) [trained by Twiston-Davies] - J Culloty (the only race in Bindaree's 40 race career than Carl Llewellyn didn't ride him - he chose to ride Beau)
FYI, one last snippet on the Major, There's not been a bad correlation between Midlands National (in which he was a close 2nd last year) and GN in the not distant past. Following winners or placed horses in Midlands Nat since 1988 went on to finish 1~6 in a future GN: Bonanza Boy (won 1991) - 5th to Seagram 1991 GN Lauras Beau (won 1992) - 3rd to Party Politics 1992 Just So (4th 1992) - 6th to Party Politics 1992 & 2nd to Miinnehoma 1994 Into The Red (2nd 1993) - 5th to Royal Athlete 1995 Lord Gyllene (2nd 1997) - Won 1997 GN Killeshin (4th 1997) - 6th to Earth Summit 1998 Call It A Day (2nd 1999) - 3rd to Bobbyjo 1999 & 6th to Papillon 2000 Philson Run (won 2005) - 4th to Silver Birch 2007 There have been failures aswell of course and compression of the GN handicap has resulted less representation from the Uttoxeter marathon in the last 5 years but the MidNat still has the capacity to throw up a quality winner (Synchronised in 2010). Enough. The more I bang on about him, the less likely he is to score.....
who do you fancy peanuts? not looking at this in great depth as I pick my own, that's the fun of betting but seems like you are picking about 5 horses.
Comments
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/8613325/ed-chamberlin-make-it-grey-day
Re The Major, T-D's views in the Grauniad: "On good ground, he'd have a very good chance. He's not as good as the Commander, but he's a real stayer." There you have it...............OK, OK he would say that wouldn't he.....
Re women jocks len. To be fair, having Ruby or AP on board would benefit any horse in comparison with most other jockeys, male or female. It's just as important to get a tune out of a horse as it is to have muscle to use at the business end (Timmy Murphy and Paul Carberry are perfect examples). For some reason, female jockies (the best ones anyway) seem to be very good at just that so, personally, I really wouldn't regard Nina Carberry or Katie Walsh or a top amateur for that matter as necessarily being a liability, even in the GN.
Amateurs have won it not that long ago (Dick Saunders on Grittar in 1982 and Marcus Armytage on Mr Frisk in 1990) and Waley-Cohen came very close only 2 years back (Maguire using a tad too much muscle for my liking to hold him off). Nina Carberry won the Irish 2 years ago. If I were a Seabass backer, for sure I'd rather have Ruby on board but, in his absence, I'd rather see Katie ride him than any other jock, since she obviously gets on with him.
As for your predictions for those 12, that'll do me.
Barring one or two differences, it's pretty similar how my model sees it if the going is a mix of good and good-to-soft, which seems very likely.
It sees Ballabriggs, Seabass, On His Own as contending for minor places instead of Colbert Stat (with Major Malarkey closing on them rapidly at the line!) and prefers Swing Bill to Balthazar King; otherwise T43 good for a c.10L win and Cappa Bleu clear runner-up - big proviso is they need to avoid misfortune in running of course.
Cheers AA. Great news. The Major runs.
Still 100/1 for 5 places with PP or (IMHO better value) 80/1 with Victor for 6 places.
Ed Chamberlin reckons he is the only no-hoper in the field on Saturday (.........you'd get better advice from Fawlty's Moose)
However he runs, he is certainly not a no-hoper, and here's why:
On his dam's side, he's closely related to Valley Henry (13L 4th to Best Mate in the Gold Cup) but his sire, Supreme Leader, who also sired GN runners-up Whats Up Boys and Supreme Glory, brings more stamina to his pedigree.
He's had some poor runs this season but on ground that is too soft for him (he's still registered a close 2nd over 3.75m on it though, off the same mark of 133 that he has on Saturday).
A year ago, the last time he had ground better than soft, he was an in-touch-all-the-way, strong-staying 0.75L 2nd over 4.25m on GS in the Midlands National. In fact, except for a UR by an amateur, in his last 6 chases on Gd or GS (all 3~4.25m) he has won or finished within 6.75L of the winner in all of them.
Excepting that UR, he hasn't tipped up for over 4 years.
Unlike Tarquinius, he has the pace to remain in touch in a Gd/GS ground National.
He was a steal at 150/1 a week ago. IMHO, he is still excellent value each-way at 80/1. I know he's 32 Place on Betfair but you only get 4 places there and aside from the extra 2 bites of the cherry, while it would be more of a shock than even dear old Mon Mome, do you really want to miss it if he gets his nose in front on the line?
Click on Vic and GET ON.
I rang them just now and got some egit you didn't seem to realise that TB has been taken out and said that refunds would automatically be made after decs.
However, having checked he was scratched, he refunded the stakes. Suggest you ring them 08000 288 365 and ask them to do likewise if you don't want to wait until. Not sinister I think, just disorganised.
I gave my thoughts on Lost Glory yesterday. Having 6 running for you is enough in my book but it's a personal thing - if you fancy something else at a high price you'd probably kick yourself if he scored and you'd passed him over.
Good luck.
And you can hold me responsible for any Reduction Factor applied on any N/Rs coming out on Saturday morning in the race ;-)
.
Cheers oldbloke.
Tom Scudamore's never ridden him before but no problem (hopefully). Jocks coming in for spare (first-time) rides in the GN and winning (a place will do!):
Party Politics (1992) - Carl Llewellyn (asst to T-D of course)
Royal Athlete (1995) - Jason Titley
Bindaree (2002) [trained by Twiston-Davies] - J Culloty (the only race in Bindaree's 40 race career than Carl Llewellyn didn't ride him - he chose to ride Beau)
FYI, one last snippet on the Major,
There's not been a bad correlation between Midlands National (in which he was a close 2nd last year) and GN in the not distant past.
Following winners or placed horses in Midlands Nat since 1988 went on to finish 1~6 in a future GN:
Bonanza Boy (won 1991) - 5th to Seagram 1991 GN
Lauras Beau (won 1992) - 3rd to Party Politics 1992
Just So (4th 1992) - 6th to Party Politics 1992 & 2nd to Miinnehoma 1994
Into The Red (2nd 1993) - 5th to Royal Athlete 1995
Lord Gyllene (2nd 1997) - Won 1997 GN
Killeshin (4th 1997) - 6th to Earth Summit 1998
Call It A Day (2nd 1999) - 3rd to Bobbyjo 1999 & 6th to Papillon 2000
Philson Run (won 2005) - 4th to Silver Birch 2007
There have been failures aswell of course and compression of the GN handicap has resulted less representation from the Uttoxeter marathon in the last 5 years but the MidNat still has the capacity to throw up a quality winner (Synchronised in 2010).
Enough. The more I bang on about him, the less likely he is to score.....
There you go - it's a trend!
Who should I bet on ?
Teaforthree
Cappa Bleu
Swing Bill
Major Malarkey
Strongly suggest you take 6 places for e/w (certainly for Swing Bill and Major Malarkey)
PS If by some chance the going goes Soft (Tarquinius e/w instead of Major Malarkey) - unlikely.