Cheers Peanuts, get us a bit more wedge for Aintree GN.
Cheers CHG.......proof of the pudding 'n all. Certainly hoping 1 of these 3 (or 4) provides a good omen on Monday. Last time there was a Heavy ground Irish National it was also the Monday before the GN (not always so of course) and I managed to get both winners (Bluesea Cracker and Don't Push It)….......they'll all probably go at the first ;o)
Well I don't mind cleaning out Paddy on Monday cos we'll be doing Vic on Saturday ;o) Seems that those Irish National trends are trendy. QF is the most obvious complete box-ticker (Carloswayback is in because I treat a close 2nd [<1L in this case] as a win). They do look fairly robust, courtesy of a handicapper that doesn't muck about with the weights. We shall see.
<blockquote class="Quote" rel="Absurdistan"><blockquote class="Quote" rel="Nicholas"><blockquote class="Quote" rel="PeanutsMolloy">Update: Paddy Power also 5 places (best in market for Quietly Fancied 33/1)</blockquote>
Bloody hell Peanuts how much did you put on it, it's been backed down to 20-1 within about 45 minutes after you mentioned it on here :)
</blockquote>
Too slow with the tips Peanuts It was probably your wedge that pushed the price diwn. LOL
</blockquote>
I left plenty of meat on the carcass Abs............., I'm off for a brandy and good cigar ;o)
Been wrestling with Start Me Up (25/1) or Questions Answered (20/1) for the 4th name on the ticket, since both are closest of the remaining runners to the stat-profile (age, weight and experience-wise). SMU fails to tick only one box (82 days since his last run). He has had 7 runs this season but, from my GN stat-analysis, lack of a recent run is a particularly big negative when the going is testing. Not exactly encouraged to overlook that by the fact that he's not been within 10L of winning all season (if it's down to ground he won't fare any better on Monday) and ran poorly (admittedly as a first season novice) in last year's INat. QA also fails to tick the recent run box but more marginally (65 days - 50 days is the max for all bar 1 of last 12 INat winner and 51 days is the max for a horse placed 1~4 in the last 2 INats on Soft~Heavy). However the nearest he's been to a win in 4 attempts at 3m+ is a 5.5L 2nd in the Kerry National, which Whodoyouthink looked a serious contender to win or at least be in the shake-up when falling 4 out (WDYT was giving QA 16lbs that day - he gives him just 6lbs on Monday). At their prices, I can't get excited about either of these fellows and will stick with my top 3..........which of course guarantees a Questions Answered, Start Me Up 1-2 ;o)
A quick update on the big one - exactly 8 days away. Going today is GS on the National course with several Good patches and fewer Soft. Forecast is remaining cold (temps nudging up a little over the week) but dry. If they are true to their word about not having it faster than GS, they will surely be considering watering at some point. T43's price keeps wobbing between 14 and 16 on BetVictor Cappa Bleu 10~12 Swing Bill remains friendless, other than for strangely good support from punters in the SE London and NW Kent area, which has shortened him to 66 from 80 at BetVictor. As for my model's long-shot (but decent stats) place candidates, with a bunch of no-hopers (stats-wise) stated as intended runners, it's looking a bit grim for both of my boys getting a look-in: Tarquinius (#46 at last forfeit stage) should just make it but will need one more to defect in addition to the 5 we already know about (PdB, Beshabar, Wyck Hill, Tofino Bay & Magnanimity [assuming he doesn't tip early in the Irish Nat on Monday and go again on Saturday]). The most likely to do so may be Bob Lingo (not in great form) or Lion Na Bearnai (recovering from injury). Anyway, being "a slow bugger" (Gordon Elliott), he could do with a decent drop of rain (not forecast) or a serious malfunction of the Aintree watering system. Alas, The Major (for whom the ground would appear to be coming right) was dropped 1lb in the ratings after his recent PU and is currently #49. He needs 4 to defect in addition to the 5 above. He's pretty much definitely a Reserve, so could still come into the race after Thursday's declaraions (at any time up to 9am Friday, I think) but it looks like he'll be relying on last minute problems for others. More anon.
I've not seen a quote from the trainer or owner to say he's a definite non-runner (and why) but it seems to be assumed on various websites and by several bookies (Hills, Coral, Stan James and, notably, Paddy Power are no longer quoting him) that he won't run at Aintree. We'll know more at Monday's confirmation stage.
Got to admit that Tarquin and The Major would need a touch of divine intervention to come home in front but don't think we need a pile up to be in the money Abs. I was only a nipper when Foinavon won and rightly it's one of those not infrequent (but each one unique) events or stories that has made the National a race like no other. I've often wondered why the Red Marauder race of 2001 doesn't seem to figure in the folklore since, on paper, it was even more of a debacle than the Foinavon race, with just 4 finishing (and only 2 without re-mounting). But, thinking about it, the RM farce was more of a slow-motion car crash, played out over more than one fence (there were a lot of fallers early and then a serious pile-up at the first Canal Turn, leaving around a dozen, 7 by the water, then only 2 at the 20th) whereas Foinavon's was on the 2nd circuit with a number still standing and came out of the blue (far more dramatic); maybe because Foinavon ironically benefitted from being very ordinary (virtually last after Bechers) but was thus able to steer his way around the carnage (Red Marauder and Smarty were just the last 2 left standing); maybe because Foinavon still had a race to win with quite a few on his tail whereas RM and Smarty knew they were alone and, understandably, pretty much cantered most of the way home until Smarty ran out of gas. I was on Smarty that day (pre-model days) and couldn't believe RM out-stayed him. For those that have never seen these two races, or just want a reminder:
I make Foinavon 21st (6th from the back) and about 40L behind the leader going over Bechers. The music and the groans (not entirely convinced they're real) of the jockies in the pile up is hilarious. Brilliant stuff.
Peanuts... You have obviously put a lot of work into your system. I would appreciate it if you would send me the details. I also have a system although mine is a lot less complex. Firstly i delete anything i don't think will get round, this sounds obvious but every year people waste money backing horses that have no chance of beating the Aintree fences. I also ignore anything aged under nine and over twelve, anything that ran at Cheltenham and anything that has won the race before. This usually rules out about 75% of them. Then i study each horse starting with the favourite and working my way down the betting. I rate stamina and jumping ability above everything else. This year Teaforthree stands out as the winner. I only back one horse as i don't see the point in backing more, for example if you back three you know you have at least two losers, and i don't like backing each way but i sometimes do a forecast and tricast for a low stake. I would be interested to know why Colbert Station is not on your shortlist, i have him a distant second and Quinz third. I think Cappa Bleu will finish the race but i don't see him getting a place.
Cheers Len, If you look through the Grand National threads for the last few years (I've been posting GN selections starting with McKelvey in 2007 and talking about the model since at least 2010) you'll find fairly detailed explanations of how it works in theory and practice (e.g. the post at the top of Page 2 in this thread may be useful). In a nutshell, it is NOT an elimination process. I use a statistical model (i.e. an excel spreadsheet now exceeding 4MB) which compares the career profiles (using a very wide array of stats) of all current GN entries (I don't give a monkey's about their odds) against those of all GN winners since 1988 (excl Red Marauder, for obvious reasons) and all horses finishing up to 30L behind them and all GN runners since 2008, when the compression of the handicap (devised officially in 2001) began to have a meaningful effect (a total database of 282 past GN runners) - the aim being to identify the runners with the best-fit statistically with previous GN winners and closely placed horses (some of which could easily have won but for a degree of misfortune in running). The model’s a tool aimed at improving returns over time from betting on the GN. It’s a percentage game but obviously the model isn’t a crystal ball or infallible. A runner even with the strongest of profiles may not handle what is a truly unique (e.g. Rambling Minster in 2009 and, sadly, Synchronised and West End Rocker last year – none of these had previously fallen or unseated over fences and WER had even won the Becher Chase over the course) or may simply get unlucky during the race (Clan Royal being a classic example – twice!). That's why I rarely bet Win only in the GN and look to back (as early as sensible) several of the best candidates identified by the model each-way (at least 5 places), though of course betting strategy does vary from year to year depending on stat-scores and prices - the results detailed below I believe justify this approach for me but betting strategy is a very personal thing. I'm not looking to hit it our of the park, though happily did so in 2008. Of course the model gets it wrong. In fact, even when it has identified the winner, there will always be unexpected elements to a GN result and so, with the addition of new GN performance data each year, the model is “tweaked” annually to reconcile unexpected performances; the new model being back-tested against all GNs since 1988, aiming to confirm robustness. That evolution is why it’s been able to cope, more or less, with the recent transition (courtesy of the handicapper) to winners now regularly carrying 11.00+ when, prior to 2009, there had only been one such winner in 19 renewals. It’s done a reasonable job so far, being profitable for me in 6 of the last 7 GNs (selections posted in full on this board from 2008 onwards so it's totally verifiable). Specifically, it steered me to back: 2006: Numbersixvalverde (won) and Nil Desperandum (4th) 2007: McKelvey (2nd [0.75L]) 2008: Comply Or Die (won), King Johns Castle (2nd), Slim Pickings (4th) 2009: Mon Mome won) 2010: Dont Push It (won), Big Fella Thanks (4th), Hello Bud (5th), Snowy Morning (6th) - alas I did not have 5th or 6th places! 2011: Oscar Time (2nd [2.25L]), State Of Play (4th) 2012: Sunnyhillboy (2nd [Nose]) Hope that sheds some light on it.
Sorry to be slow getting back Len, just enjoying a celebratory cannoli – very nice too. Of course any horse can win the GN, as the clips above demonstrate. However, the model doesn’t rate either Colbert Station or Quinz as a contender:
COLBERT STATION Positives: 4 runs this season, 3 in frame Negatives: • Only 5 chase runs. • No win or near-miss in a 3m+ Grade A or 3.5m+ Grade B chase. • Won or been placed at only one track (Leopardstown). • 62 days since last run All of these not well correlated with GN winners or closely placed horses
QUINZ Positives: none Negatives: MAJOR – only chase wins or near-misses at RH tracks
Having said that, one or both will probably bolt up!
Thanks Peanuts. Someone just asked me why i dismissed Seabass. I actually rated this one 4th but i would prefer to have Ruby on board rather than Katie as i don't believe a woman is physically strong enough to win a National. I fully expect her to finish the race but the more i look at it the more convinced i am that Teaforthree will win.
Ruby and AP apart, personally I think Nina Carberry and Katie Walsh stand pretty good comparison with male jockies; maybe what they lack in muscle they make up for in horse(wo)manship (most of the time anyway). It's the weight that I think will do for Seabass this time though he'll probably run very well for quite a way. T43 should run a big race but, like all of them, needs to avoid trouble. Good luck.
He's declared for the Irish Nat tomorrow. Also confirmation stage for the GN tomorrow. If they leave him in presumably it's on the thinking that if he were to take an early tumble they might go again at Aintree - seems unlikely though. Need the 5 we know about and another 4 to come out for the Major to have a spin. Still 150/1 NRNB with Victor (6 places). Decent stats for a minor place on decent ground. You ready it here first...........and will probably not read it anywhere else! ;o)
The problem with Victor Chandler is he sold most of his shops to Coral. I tried to open an online account but he wanted me to send him a copy of my passport or driving licence to prove my age. There is no way i would do that. The going is predicted to be good to soft.
The problem with Victor Chandler is he sold most of his shops to Coral. I tried to open an online account but he wanted me to send him a copy of my passport or driving licence to prove my age. There is no way i would do that. The going is predicted to be good to soft.
His business is now based in the tax haven that is Gibraltar. The ID problem might be a requirement to prevent money laundering
Comments
Carry on Peanuts, you're doing a cracking job.
Certainly hoping 1 of these 3 (or 4) provides a good omen on Monday. Last time there was a Heavy ground Irish National it was also the Monday before the GN (not always so of course) and I managed to get both winners (Bluesea Cracker and Don't Push It)….......they'll all probably go at the first ;o)
It was probably your wedge that pushed the price diwn. LOL
Seems that those Irish National trends are trendy. QF is the most obvious complete box-ticker (Carloswayback is in because I treat a close 2nd [<1L in this case] as a win). They do look fairly robust, courtesy of a handicapper that doesn't muck about with the weights. We shall see.
Bloody hell Peanuts how much did you put on it, it's been backed down to 20-1 within about 45 minutes after you mentioned it on here :)
</blockquote>
Too slow with the tips Peanuts
It was probably your wedge that pushed the price diwn. LOL
</blockquote>
I left plenty of meat on the carcass Abs............., I'm off for a brandy and good cigar ;o)
SMU fails to tick only one box (82 days since his last run). He has had 7 runs this season but, from my GN stat-analysis, lack of a recent run is a particularly big negative when the going is testing. Not exactly encouraged to overlook that by the fact that he's not been within 10L of winning all season (if it's down to ground he won't fare any better on Monday) and ran poorly (admittedly as a first season novice) in last year's INat.
QA also fails to tick the recent run box but more marginally (65 days - 50 days is the max for all bar 1 of last 12 INat winner and 51 days is the max for a horse placed 1~4 in the last 2 INats on Soft~Heavy). However the nearest he's been to a win in 4 attempts at 3m+ is a 5.5L 2nd in the Kerry National, which Whodoyouthink looked a serious contender to win or at least be in the shake-up when falling 4 out (WDYT was giving QA 16lbs that day - he gives him just 6lbs on Monday).
At their prices, I can't get excited about either of these fellows and will stick with my top 3..........which of course guarantees a Questions Answered, Start Me Up 1-2 ;o)
Going today is GS on the National course with several Good patches and fewer Soft. Forecast is remaining cold (temps nudging up a little over the week) but dry. If they are true to their word about not having it faster than GS, they will surely be considering watering at some point.
T43's price keeps wobbing between 14 and 16 on BetVictor
Cappa Bleu 10~12
Swing Bill remains friendless, other than for strangely good support from punters in the SE London and NW Kent area, which has shortened him to 66 from 80 at BetVictor.
As for my model's long-shot (but decent stats) place candidates, with a bunch of no-hopers (stats-wise) stated as intended runners, it's looking a bit grim for both of my boys getting a look-in:
Tarquinius (#46 at last forfeit stage) should just make it but will need one more to defect in addition to the 5 we already know about (PdB, Beshabar, Wyck Hill, Tofino Bay & Magnanimity [assuming he doesn't tip early in the Irish Nat on Monday and go again on Saturday]). The most likely to do so may be Bob Lingo (not in great form) or Lion Na Bearnai (recovering from injury). Anyway, being "a slow bugger" (Gordon Elliott), he could do with a decent drop of rain (not forecast) or a serious malfunction of the Aintree watering system.
Alas, The Major (for whom the ground would appear to be coming right) was dropped 1lb in the ratings after his recent PU and is currently #49. He needs 4 to defect in addition to the 5 above. He's pretty much definitely a Reserve, so could still come into the race after Thursday's declaraions (at any time up to 9am Friday, I think) but it looks like he'll be relying on last minute problems for others.
More anon.
http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/the-1001-grand-national-winner-that-changed-my-life/
I was only a nipper when Foinavon won and rightly it's one of those not infrequent (but each one unique) events or stories that has made the National a race like no other.
I've often wondered why the Red Marauder race of 2001 doesn't seem to figure in the folklore since, on paper, it was even more of a debacle than the Foinavon race, with just 4 finishing (and only 2 without re-mounting).
But, thinking about it, the RM farce was more of a slow-motion car crash, played out over more than one fence (there were a lot of fallers early and then a serious pile-up at the first Canal Turn, leaving around a dozen, 7 by the water, then only 2 at the 20th) whereas Foinavon's was on the 2nd circuit with a number still standing and came out of the blue (far more dramatic); maybe because Foinavon ironically benefitted from being very ordinary (virtually last after Bechers) but was thus able to steer his way around the carnage (Red Marauder and Smarty were just the last 2 left standing); maybe because Foinavon still had a race to win with quite a few on his tail whereas RM and Smarty knew they were alone and, understandably, pretty much cantered most of the way home until Smarty ran out of gas. I was on Smarty that day (pre-model days) and couldn't believe RM out-stayed him.
For those that have never seen these two races, or just want a reminder:
The music and the groans (not entirely convinced they're real) of the jockies in the pile up is hilarious. Brilliant stuff.
FYI, Victor Chandler's guide to the 2013 GN runners.
Vic happens to be best-price in the market for my 3:
Quietly Fancied 28/1
Carloswayback 50/1
Whodoyouthink 40/1
If you look through the Grand National threads for the last few years (I've been posting GN selections starting with McKelvey in 2007 and talking about the model since at least 2010) you'll find fairly detailed explanations of how it works in theory and practice (e.g. the post at the top of Page 2 in this thread may be useful).
In a nutshell, it is NOT an elimination process. I use a statistical model (i.e. an excel spreadsheet now exceeding 4MB) which compares the career profiles (using a very wide array of stats) of all current GN entries (I don't give a monkey's about their odds) against those of all GN winners since 1988 (excl Red Marauder, for obvious reasons) and all horses finishing up to 30L behind them and all GN runners since 2008, when the compression of the handicap (devised officially in 2001) began to have a meaningful effect (a total database of 282 past GN runners) - the aim being to identify the runners with the best-fit statistically with previous GN winners and closely placed horses (some of which could easily have won but for a degree of misfortune in running).
The model’s a tool aimed at improving returns over time from betting on the GN. It’s a percentage game but obviously the model isn’t a crystal ball or infallible. A runner even with the strongest of profiles may not handle what is a truly unique (e.g. Rambling Minster in 2009 and, sadly, Synchronised and West End Rocker last year – none of these had previously fallen or unseated over fences and WER had even won the Becher Chase over the course) or may simply get unlucky during the race (Clan Royal being a classic example – twice!).
That's why I rarely bet Win only in the GN and look to back (as early as sensible) several of the best candidates identified by the model each-way (at least 5 places), though of course betting strategy does vary from year to year depending on stat-scores and prices - the results detailed below I believe justify this approach for me but betting strategy is a very personal thing. I'm not looking to hit it our of the park, though happily did so in 2008.
Of course the model gets it wrong. In fact, even when it has identified the winner, there will always be unexpected elements to a GN result and so, with the addition of new GN performance data each year, the model is “tweaked” annually to reconcile unexpected performances; the new model being back-tested against all GNs since 1988, aiming to confirm robustness. That evolution is why it’s been able to cope, more or less, with the recent transition (courtesy of the handicapper) to winners now regularly carrying 11.00+ when, prior to 2009, there had only been one such winner in 19 renewals.
It’s done a reasonable job so far, being profitable for me in 6 of the last 7 GNs (selections posted in full on this board from 2008 onwards so it's totally verifiable).
Specifically, it steered me to back:
2006: Numbersixvalverde (won) and Nil Desperandum (4th)
2007: McKelvey (2nd [0.75L])
2008: Comply Or Die (won), King Johns Castle (2nd), Slim Pickings (4th)
2009: Mon Mome won)
2010: Dont Push It (won), Big Fella Thanks (4th), Hello Bud (5th), Snowy Morning (6th) - alas I did not have 5th or 6th places!
2011: Oscar Time (2nd [2.25L]), State Of Play (4th)
2012: Sunnyhillboy (2nd [Nose])
Hope that sheds some light on it.
Of course any horse can win the GN, as the clips above demonstrate. However, the model doesn’t rate either Colbert Station or Quinz as a contender:
COLBERT STATION
Positives: 4 runs this season, 3 in frame
Negatives:
• Only 5 chase runs.
• No win or near-miss in a 3m+ Grade A or 3.5m+ Grade B chase.
• Won or been placed at only one track (Leopardstown).
• 62 days since last run
All of these not well correlated with GN winners or closely placed horses
QUINZ
Positives: none
Negatives: MAJOR – only chase wins or near-misses at RH tracks
Having said that, one or both will probably bolt up!
T43 should run a big race but, like all of them, needs to avoid trouble.
Good luck.
Need the 5 we know about and another 4 to come out for the Major to have a spin. Still 150/1 NRNB with Victor (6 places). Decent stats for a minor place on decent ground. You ready it here first...........and will probably not read it anywhere else! ;o)