I'm sorry but I do not believe all the so called evidence. So much of it is used to 'fit' what the climate change theorists want. I don't dispute that climate changes - it has done since the planet was formed. We've had much warmer and much colder periods than we have now,
I've read other reports that say that the planet hasn't warmed at all in the last 20 years. You pay your money and take your choice as the saying goes.
Weather is unpredictable, I agree, but when the BBC and Met office produce forecasts showing what the weather will be like in hourly or three hourly slots I would expect it to be more accurate than it is.
I'm in complete agreement with A-R-T-H-U-R, you have so much misinformation it is so difficult to know where to begin. This subject was discussed recently on another thread "Oil is running out". I suggest reading that thread too. It is really important to say that there is NO debate in the scientific world about the FACT of global warming or the causes. The only debate going on is with regard to immediate impact and long term impact, how fast or slow changes are taking place and the impact on our environment.
What you quite rightly point out is an anomaly that is and has been easily explained, a stagnation of once rising temperatures has occurred over the past ten years. That does NOT equate to global warming is not happening, it just means that the weather is cyclical and currently the planet should be cooling because of two separate events, the 70 year solar activity reduction cycle and the ocean cooling cycle. The evidence comes from ice cores and ocean sediment samples.
You can choose to ignore this evidence if you wish, there is not much point in discussing science with someone who ignores evidence though is there? Suffice it to say, there is a lot of sometimes conflicting information out there, that does not mean that global warming is not happening. What it does mean is that the systems which we are trying to make sense of are very complex indeed and some of the cyclical events which we are subjected to operate over extremely long periods of time.
These are facts which are not in dispute please do not ignore them;
If you put carbon into the atmosphere it will warm the planet.
Atmospheric carbon has risen by between 25 & 30% over the past 50 years.
The rate at which carbon is entering the atmosphere is accelerating.
The rate at which carbon is leaving the atmosphere is decelerating.
In defence of the BBC it is the Met Office that actually provide the forecasts. It does appear to the laymen that the Met Office are to put it bluntly not fit for purpose and I would like to know how much the taxpayer plough into an organisation that seem to make its predictions using seaweed. I understand that they recently put online a new state of the art weather prediction computer that is one of the most sophisticated in the world. I suggest they re boot it for a start.
Loco I'm not quite sure why you have quoted my earlier comments on 'global warming', as my posting today was my view that the weather forecasters have again got things badly wrong.
However, since you have brought up the subject again, it just goes to show how scientists can get things wrong, so why shouldn't they be wrong about man made global warming?
Wundermap shows rain south of Tunbridge Wells at the moment and looks quite heavy. However it is still several hours later than was forecast. I wonder how many people chose to do something today, thinking that is was going to be wet from the start, as was forecast.
Loco I'm not quite sure why you have quoted my earlier comments on 'global warming', as my posting today was my view that the weather forecasters have again got things badly wrong.
However, since you have brought up the subject again, it just goes to show how scientists can get things wrong, so why shouldn't they be wrong about man made global warming?
Weather forecasters are offering a best guess, not facts. If you ask any meteorologist they will tell you that they can only predict four or five days in advance and that they cannot given the currently available information and means of analysis get it that prediction 100% accurate. That is because they do not have the full understanding of all the elements that go into the making of that weather.
That does not equate to, they do not understand global warming, its causes or its effects.
As the video says you are confusing local weather events and long term trends.
I am not confusing the two - my point is that meteorologists frequently get things wrong with their weather forecasts, so why is it that you think climate change scientists always get their man made global warming forecasts right? They use computer models to forecast what they think climate is going to be like and already have had to change their thinking on the speed of global warming as it hasn't warmed in the last ten years as they predicted.
Thoroughly recommend those interested in weather forecasting and prediction to read Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction. Weather forecasting has improved in its accuracy massively over the last 20 years.
My comment above was based on the computer model predictions for 9+ days into the future that a prolonged settled warm summery spell looked likely. This spell appeared consistently in the various models for up to a week previous to my comment. I think we can say that the models got that one right!
I too expected today to be a washout if the forecasts were taken literally. Unfortunately the BBC forecasts are so dumbed-down these days that that is the only way you could take them. However, my experience told me that these conditions (showery, thunderstorms, high humidity) are very difficult to get timings and location very accurate. I would advise taking suitable precautions BUT be aware that local conditions can be very variable AND watch the rain radar www.raintoday.co.uk. It's also probably worth remembering that a thunderstorm, from the cloud first forming to dying away, is only around 2 hours with the thundery bit lasting around 30mins.
and no one can predict the weather its all a conspiracy from the US government with a machine that does it to decimate the poor and ethnic areas of the US and so no one susses it out the machine sends weather across the world
Near Maidstone had about a minute of rain which dried almost as soon as it hit the ground. Do I go out and water my garden in which case it is sure to rain, or do I believe the weather forecasters and leave it?
Near Maidstone had about a minute of rain which dried almost as soon as it hit the ground. Do I go out and water my garden in which case it is sure to rain, or do I believe the weather forecasters and leave it?
It's mostly to the west of us, the forecast was for it to be right over us in Kent and to rain most of the day. As it seems to be coming from due south - most of that is going to miss us, so perhaps I should water my garden.
It's mostly to the west of us, the forecast was for it to be right over us in Kent and to rain most of the day. As it seems to be coming from due south - most of that is going to miss us, so perhaps I should water my garden.
It's mostly to the west of us, the forecast was for it to be right over us in Kent and to rain most of the day. As it seems to be coming from due south - most of that is going to miss us, so perhaps I should water my garden.
I think it will head in our direction but may die a bit on the way. If you look at the old Met Office radar you will also see what happened to the big storms over Normandy that got to Kent, then died.
Comments
What you quite rightly point out is an anomaly that is and has been easily explained, a stagnation of once rising temperatures has occurred over the past ten years. That does NOT equate to global warming is not happening, it just means that the weather is cyclical and currently the planet should be cooling because of two separate events, the 70 year solar activity reduction cycle and the ocean cooling cycle. The evidence comes from ice cores and ocean sediment samples.
You can choose to ignore this evidence if you wish, there is not much point in discussing science with someone who ignores evidence though is there? Suffice it to say, there is a lot of sometimes conflicting information out there, that does not mean that global warming is not happening. What it does mean is that the systems which we are trying to make sense of are very complex indeed and some of the cyclical events which we are subjected to operate over extremely long periods of time.
These are facts which are not in dispute please do not ignore them;
If you put carbon into the atmosphere it will warm the planet.
Atmospheric carbon has risen by between 25 & 30% over the past 50 years.
The rate at which carbon is entering the atmosphere is accelerating.
The rate at which carbon is leaving the atmosphere is decelerating.
However, since you have brought up the subject again, it just goes to show how scientists can get things wrong, so why shouldn't they be wrong about man made global warming?
I guess the truth is somewhere inbetween.
That does not equate to, they do not understand global warming, its causes or its effects.
As the video says you are confusing local weather events and long term trends.
That could mean sufficient rain will be directed to famine hit areas. And a little less for Cornwall.
Oh and Global Warming is a complete myth.
I too expected today to be a washout if the forecasts were taken literally. Unfortunately the BBC forecasts are so dumbed-down these days that that is the only way you could take them. However, my experience told me that these conditions (showery, thunderstorms, high humidity) are very difficult to get timings and location very accurate. I would advise taking suitable precautions BUT be aware that local conditions can be very variable AND watch the rain radar www.raintoday.co.uk. It's also probably worth remembering that a thunderstorm, from the cloud first forming to dying away, is only around 2 hours with the thundery bit lasting around 30mins.
and no one can predict the weather its all a conspiracy from the US government with a machine that does it to decimate the poor and ethnic areas of the US and so no one susses it out the machine sends weather across the world
;o)
most of the day. As it seems to be coming from due south - most of that is going to miss us, so perhaps I should water my garden.