It's likely that we're going to purchase two centre forwards.
But then again we may not.
I thought all the latest thinking was that due to modern cattle husbandry, the vast amount of greenhouse gasses were now thought to eminate from cows and other ruminant mammals?
I thought all the latest thinking was that due to modern cattle husbandry, the vast amount of greenhouse gasses were now thought to eminate from cows and other ruminant mammals?
Cows/ruminants do not emit carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, water vapour, CFCs and other greenhouse gases.
They do however emit methane and current thinking is that ruminants are responsible for just under 25% of all methane emissions. Methane is a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2 but there is very little of it in the atmosphere compared to CO2. So CO2 is currently contributes more to global warming.
It's likely that we're going to purchase two centre forwards.
But then again we may not.
I thought all the latest thinking was that due to modern cattle husbandry, the vast amount of greenhouse gasses were now thought to eminate from cows and other ruminant mammals?
Your use of the word "likely" is different to mine, Addicked: Your use is as a predicate to action (OED definition 2.c), the usage in the quotations that I gave relate to "Having an appearance of truth or fact" (OED definition 2.a). Your comparison doesn't stand because you're not comparing like with like. You are talking about a future thing that might happen whereas the people I quoted are talking about something that has already happened.
As to the ruminant question, farting farm animals contribute massively to greenhouse gasses. Nobody doubts that. Anthony et al put this at 1/5th of all greenhouse emissions, whilst the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization give the following breakdown:
⏣ Livestock’s contribution to climate change in CO2 equivalent - 18 percent. Incl. pasture degradation and land use change. ⏣ Livestock’s share in carbon dioxide emissions - 9 percent. Not considering respiration. ⏣ Livestock’s share in methane emissions - 37 percent. ⏣ Livestock’s share in nitrous oxide emissions - 65 percent. Including feed crops.
These findings are significant, but they do not mean that we call all put our feet up and blame the cows. Firstly, if cows are contributing to 18% of greenhouse emissions, there's still another 82% to be accounted for. Secondly, you have to ask the question, why are there so many cows?
Probably. Though actually flies do a good pollination job, no-one want to think of their tomatoes being pollinated by a fly though, so most people go around killing them.
Value your contribution on this. However, you are talking about 'likely' events.
Global warming is happening of that there is no doubt. Human contribution is adding to that there is no doubt. But you need to consider the whole picture and not just focus on the human element.
Various other contributory effects like gases produced from ruminants - 62% of Nitrous Oxide produced is from cattle farting (GM meat will reduce this significantly btw), solar flares, Orbital differences of the Earth, volcanic eruptions and climatic ocillations
But you must agree also that the Earth is coming out of an ice age, the warming (and conversely cooling) of the Earth is cyclical. Indeed the last Ice Age only stopped about 10,000 years ago.
I still believe the use of fossil fuels is a red herring - as even at the best quesstimates, this can only provide us with enough energy for 100 years - which is a nano second in the time line of the earth.
I would agree at the prevention of further deforestation though.
Saturday's forecast on the BBC website was way off - rain predicted by 9 a.m. and set to last all day - it didn't arrive at all. Walked from Clapham Junction through Wandsworth to Putney in warm sunshine for a liquid lunch with friends. Shame about the game - sounds bloody grim.
But you must agree also that the Earth is coming out of an ice age, the warming (and conversely cooling) of the Earth is cyclical. Indeed the last Ice Age only stopped about 10,000 years ago.
Coming out of the ice age the earth warmed but for the last 5,000 years of that cycle (we are in the holocene era) the world has cooled - but that trend has reversed and over the last 100 years the world has started warming. The reduction in temps over the last 5000 years was circa 1.3 deg Fahrenheit, however over the last 100 years the growth in temperatures has been 1.3 deg F. Currently the earth is at its hottest since the end of the last ice age, but because of the earth relative to the Sun we should now be near the bottom of a long-term cooling trend - that would be consistent with the last 5k years, this is clearly not the case. This might be an anomaly/statistical blip of some kind, but I can't see any other cause than AGW caused by the pumping of fossil fuels into the atmosphere. Models show that increased levels of GHGs will cause global warming and that appears to be exactly what is happening.
I recommend these guys, EA Services Tel 01732 882535. Sorry I do not have his mobile. I got these guys from Gas Safe and they were superb. No hassle, my problem was urgent so he added me on to the end of a day and arrived at 20.00. he did not have the part so he went home, collected it and came back and fitted it, all for £50.00.
If he asks who I am say its Mike from St Marys Platt.
The report is not really a surprise , the IPCC was never going to say that they were wrong. They say that a pause in warming over the past 15 years is too short to reflect long-term trends.
The temperature changes they talking about are so small, but all their graphs are done to show them as massive increases. I still remain a climate change sceptic.
Possible Strong Autumn Storm Late Sunday Into Monday Issued on 24/10/2013 at 15:39
Areas affected in detail:
England and Wales
Weather type:
High Winds and Heavy Rain
Alert risk period: Sunday 27/10/13 18:00 until Monday 28/10/13 23:59
Alert details:
Confidence is increasing from weather model output that an intense depression could move northeast across parts of England and Wales late Sunday and into Monday morning, bringing a spell of exceptionally strong winds to southern Britain, along with heavy rain which may cause flooding.
A frontal wave is forecast to develop mid-North Atlantic on Sunday, as an upper trough and strong 180 mph jet stream moving ESE from NE Canada interact with warm moist air of tropical origin to the south of the frontal zone. A depression looks to form in this frontal wave, which looks to rapidly deepen as it approaches and moves northeast across the country late on Sunday and early Monday.
It's still too early to be certain over the exact track, timing and intensity of this depression. And there's the chance that the low will take a more southerly track missing Britain altogether, bringing the strongest winds to the near continent. However, most recent runs from the American GFS and European ECMWF weather models have suggested that the centre of low is likely to cross England and Wales, with strong to exceptionally strong winds on the southern and western flanks. At the moment, models are suggesting the potential for winds gusts in excess of 70 mph across southern Britain, perhaps in excess of 80 mph on exposed coasts.
Therefore, the public and authorities are advised to prepare for the risk of falling trees, damage to properties, disruption to transport and power supplies, along with flooding.
Given the uncertainty over the track, timing and intensity of the low, this watch maybe updated or upgraded to an alert over the next few days.
Comments
But then again we may not.
I thought all the latest thinking was that due to modern cattle husbandry, the vast amount of greenhouse gasses were now thought to eminate from cows and other ruminant mammals?
Cows/ruminants do not emit carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, water vapour, CFCs and other greenhouse gases.
They do however emit methane and current thinking is that ruminants are responsible for just under 25% of all methane emissions. Methane is a more effective greenhouse gas than CO2 but there is very little of it in the atmosphere compared to CO2. So CO2 is currently contributes more to global warming.
As to the ruminant question, farting farm animals contribute massively to greenhouse gasses. Nobody doubts that. Anthony et al put this at 1/5th of all greenhouse emissions, whilst the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization give the following breakdown:
⏣ Livestock’s contribution to climate change in CO2 equivalent - 18 percent. Incl. pasture degradation and land use change.
⏣ Livestock’s share in carbon dioxide emissions - 9 percent. Not considering respiration.
⏣ Livestock’s share in methane emissions - 37 percent.
⏣ Livestock’s share in nitrous oxide emissions - 65 percent. Including feed crops.
These findings are significant, but they do not mean that we call all put our feet up and blame the cows. Firstly, if cows are contributing to 18% of greenhouse emissions, there's still another 82% to be accounted for. Secondly, you have to ask the question, why are there so many cows?
Value your contribution on this. However, you are talking about 'likely' events.
Global warming is happening of that there is no doubt. Human contribution is adding to that there is no doubt. But you need to consider the whole picture and not just focus on the human element.
Various other contributory effects like gases produced from ruminants - 62% of Nitrous Oxide produced is from cattle farting (GM meat will reduce this significantly btw), solar flares, Orbital differences of the Earth, volcanic eruptions and climatic ocillations
But you must agree also that the Earth is coming out of an ice age, the warming (and conversely cooling) of the Earth is cyclical. Indeed the last Ice Age only stopped about 10,000 years ago.
I still believe the use of fossil fuels is a red herring - as even at the best quesstimates, this can only provide us with enough energy for 100 years - which is a nano second in the time line of the earth.
I would agree at the prevention of further deforestation though.
Coming out of the ice age the earth warmed but for the last 5,000 years of that cycle (we are in the holocene era) the world has cooled - but that trend has reversed and over the last 100 years the world has started warming. The reduction in temps over the last 5000 years was circa 1.3 deg Fahrenheit, however over the last 100 years the growth in temperatures has been 1.3 deg F. Currently the earth is at its hottest since the end of the last ice age, but because of the earth relative to the Sun we should now be near the bottom of a long-term cooling trend - that would be consistent with the last 5k years, this is clearly not the case. This might be an anomaly/statistical blip of some kind, but I can't see any other cause than AGW caused by the pumping of fossil fuels into the atmosphere. Models show that increased levels of GHGs will cause global warming and that appears to be exactly what is happening.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24289500
http://www.channel4.com/news/ipcc-report-panel-on-climate-change-global-warming
I recommend these guys, EA Services Tel 01732 882535. Sorry I do not have his mobile. I got these guys from Gas Safe and they were superb. No hassle, my problem was urgent so he added me on to the end of a day and arrived at 20.00. he did not have the part so he went home, collected it and came back and fitted it, all for £50.00.
If he asks who I am say its Mike from St Marys Platt.
The temperature changes they talking about are so small, but all their graphs are done to show them as massive increases. I still remain a climate change sceptic.
http://www.eastleighnews.co.uk/2013/10/80mph-winds-possible-on-monday/
Issued on 24/10/2013 at 15:39
Areas affected in detail:
England and Wales
Weather type:
High Winds and Heavy Rain
Alert risk period:
Sunday 27/10/13 18:00 until Monday 28/10/13 23:59
Alert details:
Confidence is increasing from weather model output that an intense depression could move northeast across parts of England and Wales late Sunday and into Monday morning, bringing a spell of exceptionally strong winds to southern Britain, along with heavy rain which may cause flooding.
A frontal wave is forecast to develop mid-North Atlantic on Sunday, as an upper trough and strong 180 mph jet stream moving ESE from NE Canada interact with warm moist air of tropical origin to the south of the frontal zone. A depression looks to form in this frontal wave, which looks to rapidly deepen as it approaches and moves northeast across the country late on Sunday and early Monday.
It's still too early to be certain over the exact track, timing and intensity of this depression. And there's the chance that the low will take a more southerly track missing Britain altogether, bringing the strongest winds to the near continent. However, most recent runs from the American GFS and European ECMWF weather models have suggested that the centre of low is likely to cross England and Wales, with strong to exceptionally strong winds on the southern and western flanks. At the moment, models are suggesting the potential for winds gusts in excess of 70 mph across southern Britain, perhaps in excess of 80 mph on exposed coasts.
Therefore, the public and authorities are advised to prepare for the risk of falling trees, damage to properties, disruption to transport and power supplies, along with flooding.
Given the uncertainty over the track, timing and intensity of the low, this watch maybe updated or upgraded to an alert over the next few days.
Confidence:
70%
Issued by Nick Finnis Netweather
The Great South is 10 miles isn't it?
I always meant to do that one but never did.