heads up if anyone is heading sandown on saturday they have just halved the price of the winter warmer package pint, hog roast roll, racecard and entry to grandstand for £25.00
We were going Friday until the month long industrial action on South West trains began this week. Can't be bothered with the possibility of waiting hours for trains there and back. Obviously, why they've just halved the prices.
Commuters have been warned that only around half of services will run, including those to and from London Waterloo, the country’s busiest railway station.
Services will be cancelled, replaced by buses or finish earlier than normal, and trains that do run are expected to be busier than normal.
On Friday there are 2 trains an hour from Waterloo to Esher, they maybe a bit snug as this is usually a busy meeting.
There were supposed be 2 trains per hour, but half are not running, so it could be one an hour and or bus replacement services. Although tbf it does say they have removed the non running trains from the timetable for this week.
Fascinating Becher Chase on Saturday but difficult to spot much in the way of outstanding value. Abolitionist (20s) faces the fences for the first time and has greatly interested me at his current rating previously for the GN but hasn't got home in his last 3 outings. Despite joint top weight and off a career high mark, 14s each way for BALLYOPTIC holds some appeal for me and will carry my shilling. Went well for a long way in the big one in April. Rain about today - going will suit. Only runner for NT-D, who's saddled the winner an astonishing 6 times since 1992. Principally one to watch and enjoy IMHO.
My shilling stays in Bob's pocket - what's new? Races over these GN fences are so special. Some horses just love it and are 14lb better than anywhere else. Many congrats to Walk In The Mill once again. Brilliant.
Should be some big bans coming for jockeys in the last at Sandown. Clear yellow flag waved, which means they all must immediately try and stop and the race called void. They all carried on bar Aiden Coleman. Could have been really nasty.
Ridiculous how long it took the stewards to declare the race void as what happened was clear. And to make matters worse no information on course as to what was going on
Ridiculous how long it took the stewards to declare the race void as what happened was clear. And to make matters worse no information on course as to what was going on
Kepage won the Leic 3.00. Not exactly a shock given it was a 2/9 shot.
However, one or more in running layers will be crying in their tea tonight. At more than one hurdle Kepage looked like not making it to the other side but at one particular obstacle Tom Scudamore was sent out the side door - only to make a miraculous recovery. Well not exactly "miraculous" for the layer(s) because £512 was matched at 1000 on the horse!!!
So, one of more layers have dropped at least £256K on the press of the button. Serves the fast picture and "course siders" right - fastest finger means fastest finger to make a mistake as well as to gain from backers' misfortune when their horse falls and everything they have up to back is swept. The rest of that race must have been pure agony for those layers especially as the winner only got on top in the last furlong.
The flip side is that some backers are going to have a bloody good Christmas. Good luck to them I say!
Kepage won the Leic 3.00. Not exactly a shock given it was a 2/9 shot.
However, one or more in running layers will be crying in their tea tonight. At more than one hurdle Kepage looked like not making it to the other side but at one particular obstacle Tom Scudamore was sent out the side door - only to make a miraculous recovery. Well not exactly "miraculous" for the layer(s) because £512 was matched at 1000 on the horse!!!
So, one of more layers have dropped at least £256K on the press of the button. Serves the fast picture and "course siders" right - fastest finger means fastest finger to make a mistake as well as to gain from backers' misfortune when their horse falls and everything they have up to back is swept. The rest of that race must have been pure agony for those layers especially as the winner only got on top in the last furlong.
The flip side is that some backers are going to have a bloody good Christmas. Good luck to them I say!
Im not entirely clued up on the exchanges, but could a lot of those layers be other bookies?
Kepage won the Leic 3.00. Not exactly a shock given it was a 2/9 shot.
However, one or more in running layers will be crying in their tea tonight. At more than one hurdle Kepage looked like not making it to the other side but at one particular obstacle Tom Scudamore was sent out the side door - only to make a miraculous recovery. Well not exactly "miraculous" for the layer(s) because £512 was matched at 1000 on the horse!!!
So, one of more layers have dropped at least £256K on the press of the button. Serves the fast picture and "course siders" right - fastest finger means fastest finger to make a mistake as well as to gain from backers' misfortune when their horse falls and everything they have up to back is swept. The rest of that race must have been pure agony for those layers especially as the winner only got on top in the last furlong.
The flip side is that some backers are going to have a bloody good Christmas. Good luck to them I say!
Im not entirely clued up on the exchanges, but could a lot of those layers be other bookies?
Unlikely I would have thought. Usually people who pay for fast feeds from SIS (usually 5 plus seconds faster) or actually people standing by the obstacle on their phones and either betting themselves or relaying that information back to an accomplice on the computer.
When I was at Plumpton last Monday I noted that the Sky Racing coverage was 8 seconds behind the live action. This is why I never get involved in play as you are so far behind just sitting at home watching on a normal feed.
Gonna chuck in an antepost thought for Cheltenham:
Supreme Novices' Hurdle - SHISHKIN @ 33/1 (Bet365, thank you Bob!). Have heard from some very well-connected and reliable friends that he looks to be a monster for Nicky Henderson this year and is on fire in the yard. He did this a few days after the Festival this year:
Gonna chuck in an antepost thought for Cheltenham:
Supreme Novices' Hurdle - SHISHKIN @ 33/1 (Bet365, thank you Bob!). Have heard from some very well-connected and reliable friends that he looks to be a monster for Nicky Henderson this year and is on fire in the yard. He did this a few days after the Festival this year:
Didn’t see it but apparently fell on hurdle debut just now.
Was over on the back straight and hope he's alright as it seemed to be quite a tumble. Too far out to tell but given that the race was won by a 33/1 Seamus Mullins horse the race wouldn't have taken much winning.
Gonna chuck in an antepost thought for Cheltenham:
Supreme Novices' Hurdle - SHISHKIN @ 33/1 (Bet365, thank you Bob!). Have heard from some very well-connected and reliable friends that he looks to be a monster for Nicky Henderson this year and is on fire in the yard. He did this a few days after the Festival this year:
Didn’t see it but apparently fell on hurdle debut just now.
Was over on the back straight and hope he's alright as it seemed to be quite a tumble. Too far out to tell but given that the race was won by a 33/1 Seamus Mullins horse the race wouldn't have taken much winning.
Ended up completing the course, and it looked more an unfortunate slip than anything else on review.
We've learnt nothing from that run, obviously, and I'm not exactly too fussed. Almost certainly think he'd have bolted up if completing - with a jockey on board...
Welsh GN is a week today and, with Elegant Escape likely to be top-weight, weights will rise 7lbs. JOE FARRELL at 40s with Bob's mob (4 places - 1/4 odds) looks very appealing to me ante-post. Due to carry a very winnable with 10-09, never out of the first 3 at 3m+ on soft, including when close 2nd on seasonal bow at Chepstow. Followed up with respectable 7th in the Hennessy - outpaced but stayed on - last time out. The greater the stamina test the better and, even if course dries to GS, 29f over the undulations of Chepstow is a test he should relish. A bit to find at their respective marks on likely fav Elegant Escape (who could well be the first back-to-back winner since Bonanza Boy in '89) but I'll happily take Joe e/w at the prices. More to make up the team in due course, naturally.
Welsh GN is a week today and, with Elegant Escape likely to be top-weight, weights will rise 7lbs. JOE FARRELL at 40s with Bob's mob (4 places - 1/4 odds) looks very appealing to me ante-post. Due to carry a very winnable with 10-09, never out of the first 3 at 3m+ on soft, including when close 2nd on seasonal bow at Chepstow. Followed up with respectable 7th in the Hennessy - outpaced but stayed on - last time out. The greater the stamina test the better and, even if course dries to GS, 29f over the undulations of Chepstow is a test he should relish. A bit to find at their respective marks on likely fav Elegant Escape (who could well be the first back-to-back winner since Bonanza Boy in '89) but I'll happily take Joe e/w at the prices. More to make up the team in due course, naturally.
Bollocks - he's scratched. What a plonker. Better pick the winner then Watch this space.
So 25 left standing for the Welsh GN (max field 20). Going forecast to be Soft (possibly Heavy places) Stat filter as follows:
Last run 16-59 days prior – Eliminate: Crievehill,
West Approach, Daklondike, Midnight Tune, Field Exhibition
Finished first 6 last run (excl. BD or V)
- E: Yala Enki, Virginia Chick, Joueur Bresilien
2nd or <5L in one of last 3 starts – E: Big River, Rathlin
Rose, Kings Monarch
Chase form at 26f+ - E: Now McGinty,
Steely Addition, Bennys King, Pop Rockstar, Arthurs Gift, Captain Chaos, Looks
Like Power
3m+ chase win or near-miss (excl. PTP, Nov
& Beginners) – E: Truckers Lodge
Leaves 6 (all suited by the probable going):
Elegant Escape (4/1) - despite top-weight, a great chance to post back to back
victories but too short for me
Potters Corner (9/1) - has course form but OR +10lbs and first chase outing since Midlands Nat win in March. That was preceded by 2 falls. Too short a price for
my liking.
The
Two Amigos (backed at 33/1 e/w) - winner of 29f Sussex Nat last Jan, stamina is the
forte for this very genuine 7 y-o. Close 3rd off this mark in
Southern Nat in Nov (last run, lumping 12-01 - collateral form at 24f from that race gives TTA an 11lb pull with Potters Cross, 8lbs in hand vs Steely Addition [10/1] but 5lb to find with 2nd fav Now McGinty [6/1], though the latter's unproven beyond 3m). He'll carry an appealing 10-08 and his handy racing style
should suit. First time over Chepstow's fences but 30f chase win on Soft at
similarly-undulating Exeter. Best e/w value now IMHO.EDIT - best price now 25/1.
Pobbles
Bay (backed at 20/1 e/w) - 9 y-o and course winner off current mark, which is 5lb lower than
when 7th in this race 2 years ago. He didn't get home that day but was lumping 11-05 (10-05 now). Had lean
spell but back to near-best form with 28f West Wales Nat win last April, following a staying on near-miss over 29f on Soft. 2 creditable spins over hurdles this term.
Prime Venture (backed at 25/1 e/w) - 8 y-o set to carry 10-01. Still a maiden after 8
chases but 3 near-misses (<5L) all keeping on at 3m at Chepstow (incl. last outing on quickish ground in Oct - now 4lb better off for 3.5L defeat by 3rd fav Truckers Lodge [7/1]). But best 2 chase RPRs to date recorded in Dec last year on Soft-Hvy at Chepstow, including a close 2nd to Ramses De Teillee in the WGNTrial, and collateral form from both races suggest PV could be well in on Friday. Showed he gets an extended trip, given his ground, when a creditable 18L 4th (travelled well for a long way, shed a shoe) in 34f Midlands Nat in March on Hvy (4lbs lower OR now and 14lbs better off with Potters Corner). 29f on soft at his favourite track may be just the ticket.
Space
Cadet (50/1 - waiting for decs & needs 1 to come out) – if he travels over, this 9 y-o will be the only Irish-trained
runner and as unloved in the market as Glenquest was in 2014 (33/1 close 3rd),
with similar profile and preference for testing ground. With Gordon Elliott when placed in Thyestes, Irish GNT
and Leinster National Jan-Mar 2018 (all on heavy) but career went pear-shaped until changing
yards. Since when in 3 outings has posted 2 PTP wins and a staying on 4th in November's
Troytown (same mark). Will add (e/w for max places) if he’s declared and remains at a wild
price but only for those with a sense of adventure
Should it be of interest, The Two Amigos now best priced 20s - still a very appealing e/w shout IMO. An extra plus (maybe) is that he now ticks the stat that some use (I don't cos it doesn't account for near-missers) that no WGN winner has started longer than 20s since Earth Summit (25/1) in 1997. Next best e/w value IMO remains Prime Venture, being nibbled at but still available at 25/1 for 5 places from PP and Betfair. EDIT - 25s all gone for PV
So 25 left standing for the Welsh GN (max field 20). Going forecast to be Soft (possibly Heavy places) Stat filter as follows:
Last run 16-59 days prior – Eliminate: Crievehill,
West Approach, Daklondike, Midnight Tune, Field Exhibition
Finished first 6 last run (excl. BD or V)
- E: Yala Enki, Virginia Chick, Joueur Bresilien
2nd or <5L in one of last 3 starts – E: Big River, Rathlin
Rose, Kings Monarch
Chase form at 26f+ - E: Now McGinty,
Steely Addition, Bennys King, Pop Rockstar, Arthurs Gift, Captain Chaos, Looks
Like Power
3m+ chase win or near-miss (excl. PTP, Nov
& Beginners) – E: Truckers Lodge
Leaves 6 (all suited by the probable going):
Elegant Escape (4/1) - despite top-weight, a great chance to post back to back
victories but too short for me
Potters Corner (9/1) - has course form but OR +10lbs and first chase outing since Midlands Nat win in March. That was preceded by 2 falls. Too short a price for
my liking.
The
Two Amigos (backed at 33/1 e/w) - winner of 29f Sussex Nat last Jan, stamina is the
forte for this very genuine 7 y-o. Close 3rd off this mark in
Southern Nat in Nov (last run, lumping 12-01 - collateral form at 24f from that race gives TTA an 11lb pull with Potters Cross, 8lbs in hand vs Steely Addition [10/1] but 5lb to find with 2nd fav Now McGinty [6/1], though the latter's unproven beyond 3m). He'll carry an appealing 10-08 and his handy racing style
should suit. First time over Chepstow's fences but 30f chase win on Soft at
similarly-undulating Exeter. Best e/w value now IMHO.EDIT - best price now 25/1.
Pobbles
Bay (backed at 20/1 e/w) - 9 y-o and course winner off current mark, which is 5lb lower than
when 7th in this race 2 years ago. He didn't get home that day but was lumping 11-05 (10-05 now). Had lean
spell but back to near-best form with 28f West Wales Nat win last April, following a staying on near-miss over 29f on Soft. 2 creditable spins over hurdles this term.
Prime Venture (backed at 25/1 e/w) - 8 y-o set to carry 10-01. Still a maiden after 8
chases but 3 near-misses (<5L) all keeping on at 3m at Chepstow (incl. last outing on quickish ground in Oct - now 4lb better off for 3.5L defeat by 3rd fav Truckers Lodge [7/1]). But best 2 chase RPRs to date recorded in Dec last year on Soft-Hvy at Chepstow, including a close 2nd to Ramses De Teillee in the WGNTrial, and collateral form from both races suggest PV could be well in on Friday. Showed he gets an extended trip, given his ground, when a creditable 18L 4th (travelled well for a long way, shed a shoe) in 34f Midlands Nat in March on Hvy (4lbs lower OR now and 14lbs better off with Potters Corner). 29f on soft at his favourite track may be just the ticket.
Space
Cadet (50/1 - waiting for decs & needs 1 to come out) – if he travels over, this 9 y-o will be the only Irish-trained
runner and as unloved in the market as Glenquest was in 2014 (33/1 close 3rd),
with similar profile and preference for testing ground. With Gordon Elliott when placed in Thyestes, Irish GNT
and Leinster National Jan-Mar 2018 (all on heavy) but career went pear-shaped until changing
yards. Since when in 3 outings has posted 2 PTP wins and a staying on 4th in November's
Troytown (same mark). Will add (e/w for max places) if he’s declared and remains at a wild
price but only for those with a sense of adventure
silly season bets .. K George .. Footpad e/w .. Geraghty must be near the end of his tremendous career, he's not won this since the early 2000s .. silly price for a 6 runner race, Footpad must have stamina doubts though
Welsh Nat .. Truckers Lodge e/w .. 3rd favourite, Lorcan Williams up means a very light weight (10/2) .. once again, stamina is an issue .. then dbl, Footpad/Truckers e/w (Barbados … here I come lol)
Good luck to all you gamblers out there .. most of all, good luck to Barry and Lorcan
Comments
JF 28s
pint, hog roast roll, racecard and entry to grandstand for £25.00
Can't be bothered with the possibility of waiting hours for trains there and back.
Obviously, why they've just halved the prices.
Commuters have been warned that only around half of services will run, including those to and from London Waterloo, the country’s busiest railway station.
Services will be cancelled, replaced by buses or finish earlier than normal, and trains that do run are expected to be busier than normal.
Abolitionist (20s) faces the fences for the first time and has greatly interested me at his current rating previously for the GN but hasn't got home in his last 3 outings.
Despite joint top weight and off a career high mark, 14s each way for BALLYOPTIC holds some appeal for me and will carry my shilling. Went well for a long way in the big one in April. Rain about today - going will suit. Only runner for NT-D, who's saddled the winner an astonishing 6 times since 1992.
Principally one to watch and enjoy IMHO.
Races over these GN fences are so special. Some horses just love it and are 14lb better than anywhere else.
Many congrats to Walk In The Mill once again. Brilliant.
RIP Houbon Des Obeaux.
He died doing what he patently loved doing. RIP old fella.
wasnt too busy and was easy to get a drink etc, helped that i had a 12/1 and 6/1 winner. would definitely recommend, the trains weren't too bad.
the amount of people on the last race that simply threw there tickets away - we waited for the bell and went to the bookie to get money back.
sad to see hdo go - was a great horse and one that has been around for years.
However, one or more in running layers will be crying in their tea tonight. At more than one hurdle Kepage looked like not making it to the other side but at one particular obstacle Tom Scudamore was sent out the side door - only to make a miraculous recovery. Well not exactly "miraculous" for the layer(s) because £512 was matched at 1000 on the horse!!!
So, one of more layers have dropped at least £256K on the press of the button. Serves the fast picture and "course siders" right - fastest finger means fastest finger to make a mistake as well as to gain from backers' misfortune when their horse falls and everything they have up to back is swept. The rest of that race must have been pure agony for those layers especially as the winner only got on top in the last furlong.
The flip side is that some backers are going to have a bloody good Christmas. Good luck to them I say!
We've learnt nothing from that run, obviously, and I'm not exactly too fussed. Almost certainly think he'd have bolted up if completing - with a jockey on board...
JOE FARRELL at 40s with Bob's mob (4 places - 1/4 odds) looks very appealing to me ante-post.
Due to carry a very winnable with 10-09, never out of the first 3 at 3m+ on soft, including when close 2nd on seasonal bow at Chepstow. Followed up with respectable 7th in the Hennessy - outpaced but stayed on - last time out. The greater the stamina test the better and, even if course dries to GS, 29f over the undulations of Chepstow is a test he should relish.
A bit to find at their respective marks on likely fav Elegant Escape (who could well be the first back-to-back winner since Bonanza Boy in '89) but I'll happily take Joe e/w at the prices.
More to make up the team in due course, naturally.
Better pick the winner then
Watch this space.
Stat filter as follows:
Leaves 6 (all suited by the probable going):
Elegant Escape (4/1) - despite top-weight, a great chance to post back to back victories but too short for me
Potters Corner (9/1) - has course form but OR +10lbs and first chase outing since Midlands Nat win in March. That was preceded by 2 falls. Too short a price for my liking.
The Two Amigos (backed at 33/1 e/w) - winner of 29f Sussex Nat last Jan, stamina is the forte for this very genuine 7 y-o. Close 3rd off this mark in Southern Nat in Nov (last run, lumping 12-01 - collateral form at 24f from that race gives TTA an 11lb pull with Potters Cross, 8lbs in hand vs Steely Addition [10/1] but 5lb to find with 2nd fav Now McGinty [6/1], though the latter's unproven beyond 3m). He'll carry an appealing 10-08 and his handy racing style should suit. First time over Chepstow's fences but 30f chase win on Soft at similarly-undulating Exeter. Best e/w value now IMHO. EDIT - best price now 25/1.
Pobbles Bay (backed at 20/1 e/w) - 9 y-o and course winner off current mark, which is 5lb lower than when 7th in this race 2 years ago. He didn't get home that day but was lumping 11-05 (10-05 now). Had lean spell but back to near-best form with 28f West Wales Nat win last April, following a staying on near-miss over 29f on Soft. 2 creditable spins over hurdles this term.
Prime Venture (backed at 25/1 e/w) - 8 y-o set to carry 10-01. Still a maiden after 8 chases but 3 near-misses (<5L) all keeping on at 3m at Chepstow (incl. last outing on quickish ground in Oct - now 4lb better off for 3.5L defeat by 3rd fav Truckers Lodge [7/1]). But best 2 chase RPRs to date recorded in Dec last year on Soft-Hvy at Chepstow, including a close 2nd to Ramses De Teillee in the WGNTrial, and collateral form from both races suggest PV could be well in on Friday. Showed he gets an extended trip, given his ground, when a creditable 18L 4th (travelled well for a long way, shed a shoe) in 34f Midlands Nat in March on Hvy (4lbs lower OR now and 14lbs better off with Potters Corner). 29f on soft at his favourite track may be just the ticket.
Space Cadet (50/1 - waiting for decs & needs 1 to come out) – if he travels over, this 9 y-o will be the only Irish-trained runner and as unloved in the market as Glenquest was in 2014 (33/1 close 3rd), with similar profile and preference for testing ground. With Gordon Elliott when placed in Thyestes, Irish GNT and Leinster National Jan-Mar 2018 (all on heavy) but career went pear-shaped until changing yards. Since when in 3 outings has posted 2 PTP wins and a staying on 4th in November's Troytown (same mark). Will add (e/w for max places) if he’s declared and remains at a wild price but only for those with a sense of adventure
Merry Christmas all.
Next best e/w value IMO remains Prime Venture, being nibbled at but still available at 25/1 for 5 places from PP and Betfair. EDIT - 25s all gone for PV
Welsh Nat .. Truckers Lodge e/w .. 3rd favourite, Lorcan Williams up means a very light weight (10/2) .. once again, stamina is an issue .. then dbl, Footpad/Truckers e/w (Barbados … here I come lol)
Good luck to all you gamblers out there .. most of all, good luck to Barry and Lorcan