Turn up for the books and GN betting in Friday’s XC. Tomorrow sees several GN possibles in a very strong renewal of the 3.5m Grade 3 (1.50pm), won by Don’t Push It before his GN win In 2010. Should be a fascinating watch but I’ll have a small interest each way for old time’s sake on the old monkey Big River.
Turn up for the books and GN betting in Friday’s XC. Tomorrow sees several GN possibles in a very strong renewal of the 3.5m Grade 3 (1.50pm), won by Don’t Push It before his GN win In 2010. Should be a fascinating watch but I’ll have a small interest each way for old time’s sake on the old monkey Big River.
I absolutely love Discorama who is quite rightly favourite. I was gutted when Le Breuil beat him in the NHC.
As for the rest of the day:
1.15 - The Big Breakaway but who'd have a bet when the prices are like that for a five runner race? 1.50 - Discorama for me. 2.25 - This will be a really interesting watch, too. But even so, I'd take Defi Du Seuil to bounce back. 3.00 - I like Ballyandy e/w despite being exposed, given his proclivity to finish in the frame and rarely further than 5L back from the winner. 15/2 is a bit scummy but even so! The Scudamore/Pipe combo on Thinking is fascinating. 3.35 - Don't care. Nightmare this, despite a very warm favourite. Trappy race and I can see For Pleasure springing a huge surprise from the front if the conditions are like they were yesterday - a lot of positive rides seemed to go in. 4.05 - Don't care at all. The market will be informative before the off.
And there's a lovely card at Punchestown too but only two races I'm interested in:
1.05 - at the prices I really like Black Tears (10/3 which is a better proposition than the others, but Elimay is currently being hammered and the market is always more informative for Irish racing). 2.10 - Abacadabras can do better than LTO to get the better of Saint Roi. But that's such a tasty renewal of the Morgiana.
The last race yesterday should've been scheduled 10 minutes earlier because of the fading light or else upgrade the lens used on the multi frames per second camera at the finishing post.
It was a great race but poor in 2020 to be unable to announce the winner.
Hoping the stewards decide the last at Fontwell only one horse took the correct course as I bought distances.............
I really don’t understand what the ground staff were doing there, I can see the confusion from the jockeys
The on course ground staff were indicating that the jockeys had to go round the horse after taking the hurdle. For them to go round the hurdle the flag bearer would have been in front of the hurdle and the hurdle would itself would have been dolled off. The commentator called it running too even before they got to the hurdle.
I'm afraid that the jockeys that bypassed the hurdle got it totally wrong and herd instinct took over. It was a classic case of none of them wanting to be the one to get it wrong bur credit to Jack Tudor because he knew the rules. He even ignored the jockey and horse that came across him before the hurdle. Even though he knew that he would get the race, credit to him for not, when being interviewed, labouring the mistake of the other jockeys because I'm sure that an A P McCoy would not have been quite so sympathetic.
The only surprise was the fact that the Stewards took so long to come to the correct conclusion.
@PeanutsMolloy - after his big run Sunday, what are you thinking about Ramses de Teillee for the GN then?
Afternoon @PaddyP17 I'm sorry to be slow replying. I've been a bit tied up and only saw your question yesterday. It's a good one, as usual, and a bit of a teaser, with RDT still available at a superficially tempting 50/1 (5 places, 1/5 odds) from Betfair Sportsbook. He (and for that matter Yala Enki; also 50s with Betfair and others) ran really impressively on Sunday, against some strong opposition, and it's a race that can be particularly relevant (at least as regards my GN model) when run on testing ground, as on Sunday. Don't Push it and Hello Bud ran close 2nd and 3rd on the same sort of ground (also with 11.00+) prior to the 2010 GN (winner and fine 5th respectively - happily both on my slip though, less happily, that was the last GN winner I backed, thanks to Neptune Collonges' nose and assorted other mishaps ). So, to nibble or not to nibble? On the plus side, clearly RDT is back to his best over fences (after the [silly IMO] novice hurdle campaign last year). However, in truth, it didn't tell us anything about his ability on testing ground that we didn't already know from his exploits 2 seasons ago. They'd prompted me to tip him (as you'll recall!) to break the 7 year-olds' GN hoodoo and, indeed, he ran better in that quick-ground 2019 GN than he was given credit for. But there's the rub - the ground. Though there's reason to be confident that RDT could run creditably on quicker ground, there's little doubt that proper cut would meaningfully improve his chances in April. Ditto (in all respects) for Yala Enki. Other than him being in rude health, did we learn anything more about his capability on testing ground? I don't think so. Indeed, the Racing Post rated both RDT's and YE's runs on Sunday as essentially matching, not surpassing, previous bests (both set on Soft~Heavy in Welsh GNs) and running the slide rule over them with my 2021 GN model, they both reconfirm boxes already ticked in their respective profiles and are currently rated as they were last year. Both were neck and neck at the weights in my model's final 2020 GN ratings (joint 6th if the ground had been Soft or worse, joint 8th on GS or better). On an absolute scale, their ratings were historically on a par with "strong place potential" at best. Of course their 2021 ratings could and probably will change (up or down) between now and April and much will depend on the handicapper's framing of the weights in Feb and, of course, whether Tiger or another highly-rated runner lines up as top-weight on the day. To state the obvious, there's a lot of wood to chop over the coming months as regards how the GN weights (and my model's ratings) will shape up. Last year was unusual, with the market considering Tiger (despite an early season set-back and prolonged shenanigans about his mark) highly likely to shoot for the hattrick and just as likely to succeed. As he did seem a probable runner but my model thought top-weight to be too big a burden, that gave rise to some very attractive ante-post opportunities in my eyes, but there's too many moving parts this season for me to be confident taking an early price. 50/1 for RDT does look a temptingly rich (Bob has both him and Yala Enki at 25s) and his price will surely be hammered if he runs a blinder in the Welsh GN, as well he may. But, as that would likely further load up his weight (the handicapper will have his say about last Sunday next Tuesday and will likely put him up at least 2lbs now), if I were to back him, I reckon I'd rather be long on the Exchange (also 50s right now for RDT for the GN) and have the option of trading out, as and when. So, that's my take. Many apologies for a long and turgid answer (of sorts ) to a simple question.
As always, we're indebted to your thoughts! What a fantastic answer. I thought 50s was a particular outlier, even if - as you say - his run doesn't tell us much that we didn't already know (same goes for Yala Enki). My thinking was admittedly far simpler: if he runs well in the Welsh GN, and the price drops, you have a value bet.
I suspect it's far too early to be thinking about the GN in too much depth regarding what to back, but good to know what to look for! Kimberlite Candy is one I have my eye out for, and it'll be interesting to see what happens with Milan Native.
Cheers @PaddyP17 I certainly agree with you that 50s looks too big for RDT (ditto Yala Enki). Many thanks for asking the question, as it's kicked my arse into gear and I have snaffled some of the 50s about RDT and 65s+ about Yala Enki for the GN on the Exchanges as a hedge/trading position. They're both entered in the Becher in a couple of weeks and, if one or other lines up, a strong run over the GN fences would give a new angle and boost to their profile as regards my model (and hopefully a profit on my position). But I may well want to trade out of it, depending on the handicapper's reaction. Similarly, if either were to shine at Chepstow. Depending on the eventual topweight, I'm not convinced that their GN rating can withstand a major hike in either's OR (a few lbs maybe in RDT's case, which may already be in store after last Sunday). The Becher should be a corker if the likely GN protagonists run. Like you, I'm keeping a keen eye on Kimberlite Candy, running off his new mark of 153 (up 13lbs since his Warwick National win) - a big test, resuming rivalry with current co-fav Walk In The Mill, who has a 10lb advantage over Kimberlite at the weights. Kimberlite progressed plenty last season and it should be a thriller, but there will likely be some dangerous opposition down the weights and it could well be an outsider's day. Will weigh it up at decs.
What a performance from Shishkin on his chase debut today. He never put a foot wrong and put in a couple of mighty jumps. It's going to take a really good one to beat him in the Arkle come March.
As always, we're indebted to your thoughts! What a fantastic answer. I thought 50s was a particular outlier, even if - as you say - his run doesn't tell us much that we didn't already know (same goes for Yala Enki). My thinking was admittedly far simpler: if he runs well in the Welsh GN, and the price drops, you have a value bet.
I suspect it's far too early to be thinking about the GN in too much depth regarding what to back, but good to know what to look for! Kimberlite Candy is one I have my eye out for, and it'll be interesting to see what happens with Milan Native.
Handicapper raises RDT 4lbs (back to career-high 153, at which he started last season) for his win in the 3.5m Grade 3 9 days ago. And raises Yala Enki 3lbs to career-high 159 for his close 2nd. If their ORs and other stats remain unaltered (and assuming they get a sensible prep sometime), according to my model, RDT's 153 is just about OK providing topweight for the GN has an allotted 164 or more (in Yala Enki's case, 163+). Even so, it's possible they may still be "strong place potential" at best. In this more limited compression era, if Tiger or Bristol de Mai or Presenting Percy (just raised to 169 by the Irish handicapper) line up, no problem, but just 2 GNs in recent times have had a >161 OR topweight (Anibale Fly 164 in 2018 and Many Clouds 165 in 2016). Obviously much water to flow under a number of bridges yet.
Is there a minimum amount of races he has to take part in?
No. I had Altior to do this in 2018/2019 before his run in the Desert Orchid (after the Tingle Creek) and duly got 4/1 for essentially four races in which he went off at 1/8, 1/10, 4/11 and 1/6. That was easy money.
Is there a minimum amount of races he has to take part in?
No. I had Altior to do this in 2018/2019 before his run in the Desert Orchid (after the Tingle Creek) and duly got 4/1 for essentially four races in which he went off at 1/8, 1/10, 4/11 and 1/6. That was easy money.
In that case the owner has £2million pounds at 5/2 and then says the horse won't run again this season!
Is there a minimum amount of races he has to take part in?
No. I had Altior to do this in 2018/2019 before his run in the Desert Orchid (after the Tingle Creek) and duly got 4/1 for essentially four races in which he went off at 1/8, 1/10, 4/11 and 1/6. That was easy money.
In that case the owner has £2million pounds at 5/2 and then says the horse won't run again this season!
I must be mistaken - that's a very good point. I know I took this when he was declared for the Desert Orchid so maybe it was just the one run with Hills!
Comments
Tomorrow sees several GN possibles in a very strong renewal of the 3.5m Grade 3 (1.50pm), won by Don’t Push It before his GN win In 2010.
Should be a fascinating watch but I’ll have a small interest each way for old time’s sake on the old monkey Big River.
As for the rest of the day:
1.15 - The Big Breakaway but who'd have a bet when the prices are like that for a five runner race?
1.50 - Discorama for me.
2.25 - This will be a really interesting watch, too. But even so, I'd take Defi Du Seuil to bounce back.
3.00 - I like Ballyandy e/w despite being exposed, given his proclivity to finish in the frame and rarely further than 5L back from the winner. 15/2 is a bit scummy but even so! The Scudamore/Pipe combo on Thinking is fascinating.
3.35 - Don't care. Nightmare this, despite a very warm favourite. Trappy race and I can see For Pleasure springing a huge surprise from the front if the conditions are like they were yesterday - a lot of positive rides seemed to go in.
4.05 - Don't care at all. The market will be informative before the off.
And there's a lovely card at Punchestown too but only two races I'm interested in:
1.05 - at the prices I really like Black Tears (10/3 which is a better proposition than the others, but Elimay is currently being hammered and the market is always more informative for Irish racing).
2.10 - Abacadabras can do better than LTO to get the better of Saint Roi. But that's such a tasty renewal of the Morgiana.
It was a great race but poor in 2020 to be unable to announce the winner.
I'm afraid that the jockeys that bypassed the hurdle got it totally wrong and herd instinct took over. It was a classic case of none of them wanting to be the one to get it wrong bur credit to Jack Tudor because he knew the rules. He even ignored the jockey and horse that came across him before the hurdle. Even though he knew that he would get the race, credit to him for not, when being interviewed, labouring the mistake of the other jockeys because I'm sure that an A P McCoy would not have been quite so sympathetic.
The only surprise was the fact that the Stewards took so long to come to the correct conclusion.
Afternoon @PaddyP17
I'm sorry to be slow replying. I've been a bit tied up and only saw your question yesterday.
It's a good one, as usual, and a bit of a teaser, with RDT still available at a superficially tempting 50/1 (5 places, 1/5 odds) from Betfair Sportsbook.
He (and for that matter Yala Enki; also 50s with Betfair and others) ran really impressively on Sunday, against some strong opposition, and it's a race that can be particularly relevant (at least as regards my GN model) when run on testing ground, as on Sunday. Don't Push it and Hello Bud ran close 2nd and 3rd on the same sort of ground (also with 11.00+) prior to the 2010 GN (winner and fine 5th respectively - happily both on my slip
So, to nibble or not to nibble?
On the plus side, clearly RDT is back to his best over fences (after the [silly IMO] novice hurdle campaign last year). However, in truth, it didn't tell us anything about his ability on testing ground that we didn't already know from his exploits 2 seasons ago. They'd prompted me to tip him (as you'll recall!) to break the 7 year-olds' GN hoodoo and, indeed, he ran better in that quick-ground 2019 GN than he was given credit for. But there's the rub - the ground. Though there's reason to be confident that RDT could run creditably on quicker ground, there's little doubt that proper cut would meaningfully improve his chances in April.
Ditto (in all respects) for Yala Enki. Other than him being in rude health, did we learn anything more about his capability on testing ground? I don't think so. Indeed, the Racing Post rated both RDT's and YE's runs on Sunday as essentially matching, not surpassing, previous bests (both set on Soft~Heavy in Welsh GNs) and running the slide rule over them with my 2021 GN model, they both reconfirm boxes already ticked in their respective profiles and are currently rated as they were last year.
Both were neck and neck at the weights in my model's final 2020 GN ratings (joint 6th if the ground had been Soft or worse, joint 8th on GS or better). On an absolute scale, their ratings were historically on a par with "strong place potential" at best.
Of course their 2021 ratings could and probably will change (up or down) between now and April and much will depend on the handicapper's framing of the weights in Feb and, of course, whether Tiger or another highly-rated runner lines up as top-weight on the day.
To state the obvious, there's a lot of wood to chop over the coming months as regards how the GN weights (and my model's ratings) will shape up. Last year was unusual, with the market considering Tiger (despite an early season set-back and prolonged shenanigans about his mark) highly likely to shoot for the hattrick and just as likely to succeed. As he did seem a probable runner but my model thought top-weight to be too big a burden, that gave rise to some very attractive ante-post opportunities in my eyes, but there's too many moving parts this season for me to be confident taking an early price.
50/1 for RDT does look a temptingly rich (Bob has both him and Yala Enki at 25s) and his price will surely be hammered if he runs a blinder in the Welsh GN, as well he may. But, as that would likely further load up his weight (the handicapper will have his say about last Sunday next Tuesday and will likely put him up at least 2lbs now), if I were to back him, I reckon I'd rather be long on the Exchange (also 50s right now for RDT for the GN) and have the option of trading out, as and when.
So, that's my take. Many apologies for a long and turgid answer (of sorts
I suspect it's far too early to be thinking about the GN in too much depth regarding what to back, but good to know what to look for! Kimberlite Candy is one I have my eye out for, and it'll be interesting to see what happens with Milan Native.
I certainly agree with you that 50s looks too big for RDT (ditto Yala Enki). Many thanks for asking the question, as it's kicked my arse into gear and I have snaffled some of the 50s about RDT and 65s+ about Yala Enki for the GN on the Exchanges as a hedge/trading position.
They're both entered in the Becher in a couple of weeks and, if one or other lines up, a strong run over the GN fences would give a new angle and boost to their profile as regards my model (and hopefully a profit on my position). But I may well want to trade out of it, depending on the handicapper's reaction. Similarly, if either were to shine at Chepstow. Depending on the eventual topweight, I'm not convinced that their GN rating can withstand a major hike in either's OR (a few lbs maybe in RDT's case, which may already be in store after last Sunday).
The Becher should be a corker if the likely GN protagonists run. Like you, I'm keeping a keen eye on Kimberlite Candy, running off his new mark of 153 (up 13lbs since his Warwick National win) - a big test, resuming rivalry with current co-fav Walk In The Mill, who has a 10lb advantage over Kimberlite at the weights. Kimberlite progressed plenty last season and it should be a thriller, but there will likely be some dangerous opposition down the weights and it could well be an outsider's day. Will weigh it up at decs.
Hmm, I feel an early GN thread coming on .......
Handicapper raises RDT 4lbs (back to career-high 153, at which he started last season) for his win in the 3.5m Grade 3 9 days ago. And raises Yala Enki 3lbs to career-high 159 for his close 2nd.
If their ORs and other stats remain unaltered (and assuming they get a sensible prep sometime), according to my model, RDT's 153 is just about OK providing topweight for the GN has an allotted 164 or more (in Yala Enki's case, 163+). Even so, it's possible they may still be "strong place potential" at best.
In this more limited compression era, if Tiger or Bristol de Mai or Presenting Percy (just raised to 169 by the Irish handicapper) line up, no problem, but just 2 GNs in recent times have had a >161 OR topweight (Anibale Fly 164 in 2018 and Many Clouds 165 in 2016).
Obviously much water to flow under a number of bridges yet.