Peanuts: presumably, the reduced number of entrants will impact on the high value prices available and, therefore, the potential big money winners your model identifies so impressively?
Grand National to be reduced to 34 runners from next year. Turkeys voting for Christmas springs to mind
Peanuts: presumably, the reduced number of entrants will impact on the high value prices available and, therefore, the potential big money winners your model identifies so impressively?
Thanks for the question @meldrew66 and sorry to be slow replying. Just returned from a week up North.
Obviously, chopping 6 lower-rated runners off the field (runners that are likely to include some out and out stayers) will make for fewer opportunities at wild prices but a 34-runner handicap over (thankfully) a largely-unaltered course should still make for some interesting values.
The big question for me is whether it will prompt a further deterioration of each way terms from bookies. Over the years, we've seen place fractions go from generally 1/4 to 1/5 and having to wait longer to see extra places and NRNB offered. As an each way punter, wanting to take early prices, that's a big issue as I'm going to be even less inclined to bet ante-post on 140~144 rated horses when the cut is going to come at #34. I know if they declare I get my money back but many Irish runners scratch in preference for the Irish GN if it looks like they won't make the cut at Aintree.
@bobmunro may or may not agree but, given the national participation in the betting on the race, it seems to me bookies have gone from viewing the National as a bit of a loss leader for capturing new accounts to THE race they can really milk. Affordability nonsense has encouraged that, I guess.
I don't begrudge them pursuing maximum profit (they're not charities but are, these days, vital sponsors of the sport) but it would be a shame (and unjustified IMHO) if a 34-runner field meant a less punter-friendly market.
Out of curiosity, I've taken a look back historically at how my model's picks (since its first iteration in 2006) would have been affected if #35~40 hadn't run.
My model's successful 66/1+ picks (2009 winner Mon Mome, 2016 3rd Vics Canvas and 2022 3rd Delta Work) would all have made the cut but it would have lost the following returns:
Win: 2021 Minella Times (#35) backed at 40/1 (SP 11/1)
On the flip side, from these or others’ elimination, the model's picks would have gained 6th place in 2014 (Monbeg Dude) and in 2021 (Discorama).
If I ignore my personal betting debacle in both 2018 and 2019 in deciding to give short-priced Tiger Roll the swerve when the model picked him both times, the model has been profitable in 14 of the 17 GNs since 2006 (7 winners & 6 runners-up, 2 by <1 length). By the way, of those 3 losing years, one (2012) was courtesy of Sunnyhillboy losing by a Nose, another (2014) by a data-input fuck up by me on Pineau De Re and the last (2023) when its top 3 picks (Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway) all met with misfortune.
Of course, losing any of those 4 returns from #35~40 would have hurt but although Minella Times’ absence would have made 2021 loss-making, the Dude placing would have just rescued 2014. 2010 was a bumper year anyway courtesy of Don't Push It's win (backed at 40/1) and, even if I didn't back Tiger Roll, the model did and would have withstood losing Milansbar in 2018).
So the net result for the Model would have been neutral in terms of profitable years but 1 less winner, 1 less place and slightly smaller aggregate profit.
How it actually pans out for the model in future? We’ll see.
But there’s a much more serious loss for the sport itself from cutting the field to 34. I’ll post my views about this separately, later.
Bookmakers are changing their place terms because the sport is being squeezed - but much of the responsibility for that has to be at the door of the bookies themselves. Over regulation has come about because they have acted irresponsibly for decades when it comes to problem gamblers. The horseracing industry will suffer as a result because they are reliant on turnover and individuals will lose the protection that regulation affords them - people will now turn to the black market to get bets on especially with bookies utilising affordability processes as an excuse not to pay out.
Grand National to be reduced to 34 runners from next year. Turkeys voting for Christmas springs to mind
Peanuts: presumably, the reduced number of entrants will impact on the high value prices available and, therefore, the potential big money winners your model identifies so impressively?
Thanks for the question @meldrew66 and sorry to be slow replying. Just returned from a week up North.
Obviously, chopping 6 lower-rated runners off the field (runners that are likely to include some out and out stayers) will make for fewer opportunities at wild prices but a 34-runner handicap over (thankfully) a largely-unaltered course should still make for some interesting values.
The big question for me is whether it will prompt a further deterioration of each way terms from bookies. Over the years, we've seen place fractions go from generally 1/4 to 1/5 and having to wait longer to see extra places and NRNB offered. As an each way punter, wanting to take early prices, that's a big issue as I'm going to be even less inclined to bet ante-post on 140~144 rated horses when the cut is going to come at #34. I know if they declare I get my money back but many Irish runners scratch in preference for the Irish GN if it looks like they won't make the cut at Aintree.
@bobmunro may or may not agree but, given the national participation in the betting on the race, it seems to me bookies have gone from viewing the National as a bit of a loss leader for capturing new accounts to THE race they can really milk. Affordability nonsense has encouraged that, I guess.
I don't begrudge them pursuing maximum profit (they're not charities but are, these days, vital sponsors of the sport) but it would be a shame (and unjustified IMHO) if a 34-runner field meant a less punter-friendly market.
Out of curiosity, I've taken a look back historically at how my model's picks (since its first iteration in 2006) would have been affected if #35~40 hadn't run.
My model's successful 66/1+ picks (2009 winner Mon Mome, 2016 3rd Vics Canvas and 2022 3rd Delta Work) would all have made the cut but it would have lost the following returns:
Win: 2021 Minella Times (#35) backed at 40/1 (SP 11/1)
On the flip side, from these or others’ elimination, the model's picks would have gained 6th place in 2014 (Monbeg Dude) and in 2021 (Discorama).
If I ignore my personal betting debacle in both 2018 and 2019 in deciding to give short-priced Tiger Roll the swerve when the model picked him both times, the model has been profitable in 14 of the 17 GNs since 2006 (7 winners & 6 runners-up, 2 by <1 length). By the way, of those 3 losing years, one (2012) was courtesy of Sunnyhillboy losing by a Nose, another (2014) by a data-input fuck up by me on Pineau De Re and the last (2023) when its top 3 picks (Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway) all met with misfortune.
Of course, losing any of those 4 returns from #35~40 would have hurt but although Minella Times’ absence would have made 2021 loss-making, the Dude placing would have just rescued 2014. 2010 was a bumper year anyway courtesy of Don't Push It's win (backed at 40/1) and, even if I didn't back Tiger Roll, the model did and would have withstood losing Milansbar in 2018).
So the net result for the Model would have been neutral in terms of profitable years but 1 less winner, 1 less place and slightly smaller aggregate profit.
How it actually pans out for the model in future? We’ll see.
But there’s a much more serious loss for the sport itself from cutting the field to 34. I’ll post my views about this separately, later.
I won't disagree, Peanuts. The betting industry, as we all know, has changed dramatically over the last 20 years - back in my youth when I first entered the industry horseracing accounted for about 75% of turnover, but it is a fraction of that now. Consequently, a big Champions League night offers far greater new customer recruitment than any horserace, even the GN. It is not the stand out event it used to be - sadly.
On your point on affordability (and AA's follow up) it is absolutely a nonsense and I would hope sense will prevail when the gambling review is finally implemented. Sports authorities do not want draconian measures, neither do operators nor, probably more tellingly, punters.
Another winner for Aiden O'brien and Ryan Moore with Unquestionable.
It was due to be ridden by Frankie Dettori but he got "jocked off" when Ryan Moore switched to it after his mount, River Tiber, was scratched by the vets.
Top trainers like Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have historically moaned about the lack of races for their novice chasers. On Friday there was a four runner Arkle trial worth £30k to the winner and paying six places with just four runners (one of which was from Ireland) and today there is a two runner affair at Exeter worth £12k to the winner and £5k to the runner up. Both meetings have the going as good to soft - perfect jumping ground.
Top trainers like Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have historically moaned about the lack of races for their novice chasers. On Friday there was a four runner Arkle trial worth £30k to the winner and paying six places with just four runners (one of which was from Ireland) and today there is a two runner affair at Exeter worth £12k to the winner and £5k to the runner up. Both meetings have the going as good to soft - perfect jumping ground.
Even more farcical is the fact that, in today's race at Exeter, the saddle slips on the outsider of two and it has to be pulled up half way round making the race a schooling event for the fav. Here's hoping that the big stables don't moan again about the lack of opportunities for their young horses.
Top trainers like Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have historically moaned about the lack of races for their novice chasers. On Friday there was a four runner Arkle trial worth £30k to the winner and paying six places with just four runners (one of which was from Ireland) and today there is a two runner affair at Exeter worth £12k to the winner and £5k to the runner up. Both meetings have the going as good to soft - perfect jumping ground.
Even more farcical is the fact that, in today's race at Exeter, the saddle slips on the outsider of two and it has to be pulled up half way round making the race a schooling event for the fav. Here's hoping that the big stables don't moan again about the lack of opportunities for their young horses.
Warwick 12.25 today - a Class 3 Novice Chase with the following prize money:
Originally there were just two entries but one of them is now a non runner. So the sole remaining runner, Pembroke, can now walk across the line and pick up £17,994. This same race was won by Jonbon last year.
Racing really doesn't do itself any favours. Seven races has now become six. The top stables have avoided this Walkover and yet had they entered their horses and the ace had been littered with lowly rated animals, those same trainers would have moaned about those no hopers being a danger to their precious superstars. But they will equally moan if the prize money isn't enough or there aren't enough races for their charges to run it.
For those that are concerned about running against a Jonbon and their horse, from a handicapping perspective, getting anywhere near last year's winner, there is an "escape" clause in the Race Conditions:
12:25 HIGHFLYER BLOODSTOCK NOVICES' CHASE (GBB RACE) (Class 3) (4yo+) Winner £9,803 1 runners 2m54y Soft RTV RACE CONDITIONS £18,000 guaranteed For 4yo+ Weights 4yo 10st 10lb; 5yo+ 11st 4lb Penalties a winner of a Class 3 to Class 5 chase 6lb; of 2 chases or of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase 10lb; Excluding the winner, the Official BHARating of any horse taking part in this race will not be increased due to performance in this race provided the horse has had at least four prior completed runs over chases or hurdles combined Allowances fillies & mares 7lb Entries 7 pay £90 Penalty value 1st £9,802.80 2nd £4,516.20
Ive got Dr Hackenbush running at Wolves tomorrow 430pm - I would have thought a decent ew shot - then I saw the early price 7-2 , so I'm not sure even I will bother. Its with John Gosden because my mate Jon Shack is principal owner and he has Emily Upjohn with JG. I think that probably shortens the price. Then Junkanoo is running his first hurdle race at Ascot on Friday 125pm. Its a bit scary but the race only has 4 runners !! for a £30k race so as long as he gets round safe & sound we will get c £2k for 4th position. I think he will be c 20-1, so who knows if the others fall or have a bad day.
The usual "Devil in the Detail" when it comes to Financial Statements from 21st Century British Chancellors of any political persuasion. This one, totally unflagged in Hunt's address on Wednesday, simply adds to the anti-racing, anti-punter policies of "Conservative" [sic] (and Labour) Party today.
The usual "Devil in the Detail" when it comes to Financial Statements from 21st Century British Chancellors of any political persuasion. This one, totally unflagged in Hunt's address on Wednesday, simply adds to the anti-racing, anti-punter policies of "Conservative" [sic] (and Labour) Party today.
The PM and the DCMS knew absolutely nothing about this in advance and not surprisingly the BHA and the operators are livid. DCMS were in damage limitation mode yesterday!
Ive got Dr Hackenbush running at Wolves tomorrow 430pm - I would have thought a decent ew shot - then I saw the early price 7-2 , so I'm not sure even I will bother. Its with John Gosden because my mate Jon Shack is principal owner and he has Emily Upjohn with JG. I think that probably shortens the price. Then Junkanoo is running his first hurdle race at Ascot on Friday 125pm. Its a bit scary but the race only has 4 runners !! for a £30k race so as long as he gets round safe & sound we will get c £2k for 4th position. I think he will be c 20-1, so who knows if the others fall or have a bad day.
Thanks guys, I was chuffed to bits with how he ran - I love the horse he is one of those like George Dobson who always tries his hardest and that’s all we can ask !
Ive got Dr Hackenbush running at Wolves tomorrow 430pm - I would have thought a decent ew shot - then I saw the early price 7-2 , so I'm not sure even I will bother. Its with John Gosden because my mate Jon Shack is principal owner and he has Emily Upjohn with JG. I think that probably shortens the price. Then Junkanoo is running his first hurdle race at Ascot on Friday 125pm. Its a bit scary but the race only has 4 runners !! for a £30k race so as long as he gets round safe & sound we will get c £2k for 4th position. I think he will be c 20-1, so who knows if the others fall or have a bad day.
Great run from Junkanoo, must be pleased with that mate!
In the John Durkan Memorial run at Punchestown today, Willis Mullins saddled five of the six runners including the odds on favourite, Gallopin Des Champs. The race was won by a 9/1 shot, Fastorslow - the only one that wasn't from the Mullins stable!
In the John Durkan Memorial run at Punchestown today, Willis Mullins saddled five of the six runners including the odds on favourite, Gallopin Des Champs. The race was won by a 9/1 shot, Fastorslow - the only one that wasn't from the Mullins stable!
Gold Cup bound for the timebing but he has an interesting GN pedigree has Fastorslow. From the family of Blaklion and Nil Desperandum (both twice placed) but, unlike either, is inbred to Wild Risk on his damside. He'll have a lump to carry if and when he heads for the Aintree marathon though.
Wide open Hennessy this afternoon and up to 7 places available e/w. Both of my fancies are near the head of the market so, as a dyed-in-the-wool e/w punter, I'll limit myself to: MAHLER MISSION (17/2) - so unfortunate but impressive in the NH Chase. Only 10-07 today with the jockey taking off 3lbs. TWIG(11/1) - ultra consistent chase record to date, a winner at 26f, shapes like the sterner the stamina test the better and the customary lung-busting pace on GS this pm will see to that. From family of Rathvinden, shares his sire with Rule The World and his damsire with I Am Maximus. Conditional jockey Beau Morgan (33% win and 70% first 4 record from 40 chases) takes off 5 to leave him with a featherweight 9.11. Should be a belter.
Comments
Thanks for the question @meldrew66 and sorry to be slow replying. Just returned from a week up North.
Obviously, chopping 6 lower-rated runners off the field (runners that are likely to include some out and out stayers) will make for fewer opportunities at wild prices but a 34-runner handicap over (thankfully) a largely-unaltered course should still make for some interesting values.
The big question for me is whether it will prompt a further deterioration of each way terms from bookies.
Over the years, we've seen place fractions go from generally 1/4 to 1/5 and having to wait longer to see extra places and NRNB offered.
As an each way punter, wanting to take early prices, that's a big issue as I'm going to be even less inclined to bet ante-post on 140~144 rated horses when the cut is going to come at #34. I know if they declare I get my money back but many Irish runners scratch in preference for the Irish GN if it looks like they won't make the cut at Aintree.
@bobmunro may or may not agree but, given the national participation in the betting on the race, it seems to me bookies have gone from viewing the National as a bit of a loss leader for capturing new accounts to THE race they can really milk. Affordability nonsense has encouraged that, I guess.
I don't begrudge them pursuing maximum profit (they're not charities but are, these days, vital sponsors of the sport) but it would be a shame (and unjustified IMHO) if a 34-runner field meant a less punter-friendly market.
Out of curiosity, I've taken a look back historically at how my model's picks (since its first iteration in 2006) would have been affected if #35~40 hadn't run.
My model's successful 66/1+ picks (2009 winner Mon Mome, 2016 3rd Vics Canvas and 2022 3rd Delta Work) would all have made the cut but it would have lost the following returns:
Win:
2021 Minella Times (#35) backed at 40/1 (SP 11/1)
Places:
2007 2nd McKelvey (#35) backed at 20/1 (SP 12/1)
2010 5th Hello Bud (#38) 50/1 (SP 20/1)
2018 5th Milansbar (#37) 50/1 (SP 25/1)
On the flip side, from these or others’ elimination, the model's picks would have gained 6th place in 2014 (Monbeg Dude) and in 2021 (Discorama).
If I ignore my personal betting debacle in both 2018 and 2019 in deciding to give short-priced Tiger Roll the swerve when the model picked him both times, the model has been profitable in 14 of the 17 GNs since 2006 (7 winners & 6 runners-up, 2 by <1 length). By the way, of those 3 losing years, one (2012) was courtesy of Sunnyhillboy losing by a Nose, another (2014) by a data-input fuck up by me on Pineau De Re and the last (2023) when its top 3 picks (Delta Work, Mr Incredible and The Big Breakaway) all met with misfortune.
Of course, losing any of those 4 returns from #35~40 would have hurt but although Minella Times’ absence would have made 2021 loss-making, the Dude placing would have just rescued 2014. 2010 was a bumper year anyway courtesy of Don't Push It's win (backed at 40/1) and, even if I didn't back Tiger Roll, the model did and would have withstood losing Milansbar in 2018).
So the net result for the Model would have been neutral in terms of profitable years but 1 less winner, 1 less place and slightly smaller aggregate profit.
How it actually pans out for the model in future? We’ll see.
But there’s a much more serious loss for the sport itself from cutting the field to 34.
I’ll post my views about this separately, later.
On your point on affordability (and AA's follow up) it is absolutely a nonsense and I would hope sense will prevail when the gambling review is finally implemented. Sports authorities do not want draconian measures, neither do operators nor, probably more tellingly, punters.
I believe sense will prevail.
Good luck.
Might try him hurdling now as a last hurrah
1st:£9,803.00
2nd:£4,516.00
3rd:£2,257.00
4th:£1,130.00
5th:£288.00
Originally there were just two entries but one of them is now a non runner. So the sole remaining runner, Pembroke, can now walk across the line and pick up £17,994. This same race was won by Jonbon last year.
Racing really doesn't do itself any favours. Seven races has now become six. The top stables have avoided this Walkover and yet had they entered their horses and the ace had been littered with lowly rated animals, those same trainers would have moaned about those no hopers being a danger to their precious superstars. But they will equally moan if the prize money isn't enough or there aren't enough races for their charges to run it.
For those that are concerned about running against a Jonbon and their horse, from a handicapping perspective, getting anywhere near last year's winner, there is an "escape" clause in the Race Conditions:
12:25
HIGHFLYER BLOODSTOCK NOVICES' CHASE (GBB RACE) (Class 3) (4yo+) Winner £9,803 1 runners 2m54y Soft RTV
RACE CONDITIONS £18,000 guaranteed For 4yo+ Weights 4yo 10st 10lb; 5yo+ 11st 4lb Penalties a winner of a Class 3 to Class 5 chase 6lb; of 2 chases or of a Class 1 or Class 2 chase 10lb; Excluding the winner, the Official BHA Rating of any horse taking part in this race will not be increased due to performance in this race provided the horse has had at least four prior completed runs over chases or hurdles combined Allowances fillies & mares 7lb Entries 7 pay £90 Penalty value 1st £9,802.80 2nd £4,516.20
Then Junkanoo is running his first hurdle race at Ascot on Friday 125pm. Its a bit scary but the race only has 4 runners !! for a £30k race so as long as he gets round safe & sound we will get c £2k for 4th position. I think he will be c 20-1, so who knows if the others fall or have a bad day.
Really annoyed with myself for not waiting or researching last years fields etc.
This one, totally unflagged in Hunt's address on Wednesday, simply adds to the anti-racing, anti-punter policies of "Conservative" [sic] (and Labour) Party today.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/potential-online-gambling-tax-hike-threatens-to-blow-up-funding-of-racing-atPho2H1ZEGy/
From the family of Blaklion and Nil Desperandum (both twice placed) but, unlike either, is inbred to Wild Risk on his damside.
He'll have a lump to carry if and when he heads for the Aintree marathon though.
Both of my fancies are near the head of the market so, as a dyed-in-the-wool e/w punter, I'll limit myself to:
MAHLER MISSION (17/2) - so unfortunate but impressive in the NH Chase. Only 10-07 today with the jockey taking off 3lbs.
TWIG (11/1) - ultra consistent chase record to date, a winner at 26f, shapes like the sterner the stamina test the better and the customary lung-busting pace on GS this pm will see to that. From family of Rathvinden, shares his sire with Rule The World and his damsire with I Am Maximus.
Conditional jockey Beau Morgan (33% win and 70% first 4 record from 40 chases) takes off 5 to leave him with a featherweight 9.11.
Should be a belter.