I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government.
I don't agree with this bit. It's perfectly possibly for the second-largest party to form a minority government. This is, in fact, one of the (less likely) options that Gordon Brown considered after the last election. The supporters of the larger party would, of course, bleat that it's unconstitutional. But, the last (current) coalition could be described in the same way, as it ignores the second-largest party, but includes the third-largest. So, "feasibly speaking", it is perfectly within the bounds of possibility for a party other than the largest party to form a minority government.
... a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively...
This can't happen any more as the Royal Prerogative (which is what this type of snap election was based on) is no longer constitutional for the dissolution of a Parliament. This is the first election that is impacted by the Fixed Term Parliament Act and it's already causing constitutional questions. And it's not due to have any kind of review until after the *next* election, due on 7 May 2020.
1. I said feasible and I only meant in this case because if the polls are correct Labour are still due to fall convincingly short of overtaking the Tories as the largest party. If the Tories are unlikely to govern alone on the current numbers, it is even less likely that Labour will be able to also govern alone unless it is able to get some kind of deal, no matter how wafer-thin, from the SNP.
2. I already covered this bit earlier, yes snap elections can no longer be called but in reality if the party of government wants to dissolve Parliament on the basis it is no longer able to govern effectively, I doubt the other parties would seriously vote to keep that party IN office.
UKIP's support has dipped a bit but is solid enough to ensure that there won't be a Tory government.
I predict Labour as the largest party (but only just) in a minority coalition with the LibDems. Whether it survives or not really depends on the SNP. EM will not do a deal with the SNP, would be political suicide a la Clegg and tuition fees. However, he can't stop them voting for a Labour Queen Speech and budget.
What? Are you saying that Ukip will take tens of seats from the Tories?
They won't take many , if any but they will take Conservative votes away possible letting Labour in , in marginal seats.
UKIP's support has dipped a bit but is solid enough to ensure that there won't be a Tory government.
I predict Labour as the largest party (but only just) in a minority coalition with the LibDems. Whether it survives or not really depends on the SNP. EM will not do a deal with the SNP, would be political suicide a la Clegg and tuition fees. However, he can't stop them voting for a Labour Queen Speech and budget.
What? Are you saying that Ukip will take tens of seats from the Tories?
They won't take many , if any but they will take Conservative votes away possible letting Labour in , in marginal seats.
Ah, gotcha! In other words, they will prevent the Tories winning in Labour marginals.
i'd honestly be gobsmacked if ukip even maintain the number of seats that they currently have. 2.
If they do end up with two, that means that either one of their high-profile defectors (Reckless or Carswell) or Farage will lose. Which, among other things, will be absolutely bloody hilarious!
Well I've had my afternoon kip, and am waking up with a cup of tea. Part of my plan for this evening is to watch C4 at 8.30 to see 'The Vote'. The Vote is a play set in a polling station which has been running at the Donmar Warehouse, and tonight is it's last night. C4 will be broadcasting the performance live. It finishes at 10, then on to the Election coverage and the exit polls and the like. Might sneak in W1A on catch up whilst it all happens. Weird sleeping in the day tho', need a shower to wake myself up!
I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government.
I don't agree with this bit. It's perfectly possibly for the second-largest party to form a minority government. This is, in fact, one of the (less likely) options that Gordon Brown considered after the last election. The supporters of the larger party would, of course, bleat that it's unconstitutional. But, the last (current) coalition could be described in the same way, as it ignores the second-largest party, but includes the third-largest. So, "feasibly speaking", it is perfectly within the bounds of possibility for a party other than the largest party to form a minority government.
... a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively...
This can't happen any more as the Royal Prerogative (which is what this type of snap election was based on) is no longer constitutional for the dissolution of a Parliament. This is the first election that is impacted by the Fixed Term Parliament Act and it's already causing constitutional questions. And it's not due to have any kind of review until after the *next* election, due on 7 May 2020.
1. I said feasible and I only meant in this case because if the polls are correct Labour are still due to fall convincingly short of overtaking the Tories as the largest party. If the Tories are unlikely to govern alone on the current numbers, it is even less likely that Labour will be able to also govern alone unless it is able to get some kind of deal, no matter how wafer-thin, from the SNP.
2. I already covered this bit earlier, yes snap elections can no longer be called but in reality if the party of government wants to dissolve Parliament on the basis it is no longer able to govern effectively, I doubt the other parties would seriously vote to keep that party IN office.
A vote of no confidence in the government doesn't lead to an election. It leads to another attempt to form a government. Perfectly possible for a minority government to survive no confidence votes by smaller parties abstaining if they don't want an election. Happened frequently in 1978/9 until the nationalists decided to pull the plug on Uncle Jim.
i'd honestly be gobsmacked if ukip even maintain the number of seats that they currently have. 2.
If they do end up with two, that means that either one of their high-profile defectors (Reckless or Carswell) or Farage will lose. Which, among other things, will be absolutely bloody hilarious!
Agreed - Old Stripey losing would be on a par (almost) with the Portillo moment.
i'd honestly be gobsmacked if ukip even maintain the number of seats that they currently have. 2.
If they do end up with two, that means that either one of their high-profile defectors (Reckless or Carswell) or Farage will lose. Which, among other things, will be absolutely bloody hilarious!
Agreed - Old Stripey losing would be on a par (almost) with the Portillo moment.
I'm not sure anything will top that moment for me. That was brilliant.
I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government. Analysts predict that in the likely event of a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively, voters will take it out on the smaller parties to ensure there is a clear winner second time round.
A government can no longer call a snap election due to the awful fixed term Parliament Act that the coalition passed. A two thirds majority is required to dissolve Parliament unless a motion of no confidence is passed AND after a 14 day cooling off period nobody else can form a government. Hopefully, it will be repealed a soon as possible in the next Parliament. Two thirds majorities are so unBritish.
yup.. overturn that law with 51%, but until then that would rule out a snap election until that point..
i'd honestly be gobsmacked if ukip even maintain the number of seats that they currently have. 2.
If they do end up with two, that means that either one of their high-profile defectors (Reckless or Carswell) or Farage will lose. Which, among other things, will be absolutely bloody hilarious!
Agreed - Old Stripey losing would be on a par (almost) with the Portillo moment.
If I lived in Thanet South his promise to resign if he loses would (almost) encourage me to vote tactically (if I could be sure which of 2 main parties are best placed to defeat him).....?
I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government.
I don't agree with this bit. It's perfectly possibly for the second-largest party to form a minority government. This is, in fact, one of the (less likely) options that Gordon Brown considered after the last election. The supporters of the larger party would, of course, bleat that it's unconstitutional. But, the last (current) coalition could be described in the same way, as it ignores the second-largest party, but includes the third-largest. So, "feasibly speaking", it is perfectly within the bounds of possibility for a party other than the largest party to form a minority government.
... a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively...
This can't happen any more as the Royal Prerogative (which is what this type of snap election was based on) is no longer constitutional for the dissolution of a Parliament. This is the first election that is impacted by the Fixed Term Parliament Act and it's already causing constitutional questions. And it's not due to have any kind of review until after the *next* election, due on 7 May 2020.
1. I said feasible and I only meant in this case because if the polls are correct Labour are still due to fall convincingly short of overtaking the Tories as the largest party. If the Tories are unlikely to govern alone on the current numbers, it is even less likely that Labour will be able to also govern alone unless it is able to get some kind of deal, no matter how wafer-thin, from the SNP.
2. I already covered this bit earlier, yes snap elections can no longer be called but in reality if the party of government wants to dissolve Parliament on the basis it is no longer able to govern effectively, I doubt the other parties would seriously vote to keep that party IN office.
A vote of no confidence in the government doesn't lead to an election. It leads to another attempt to form a government. Perfectly possible for a minority government to survive no confidence votes by smaller parties abstaining if they don't want an election. Happened frequently in 1978/9 until the nationalists decided to pull the plug on Uncle Jim.
It's all changed now though, thanks to the meddling at the start of the last Parliament designed to hold the coalition together. The Government losing a vote of no confidence triggers a new election date to be set automatically.
The new rules prevent the PM from choosing the election date, or even year to suit themselves (remember Cameron bleating at Brown, trying to goad him into going to the country early?). But they also make a minority government more stable, precisely because they don't need the type of deal (ie a confidence and supply; as opposed to coalition) that Miliband has ruled out with SNP.
Ironically, the behind-the-scenes, backroom agreements that Cameron and Clegg conjured up, prior to the Rose Garden press conference in 2010 could be precisely what is needed to ensure that neither of them gets a whiff of government office ever again!
i'd honestly be gobsmacked if ukip even maintain the number of seats that they currently have. 2.
If they do end up with two, that means that either one of their high-profile defectors (Reckless or Carswell) or Farage will lose. Which, among other things, will be absolutely bloody hilarious!
Agreed - Old Stripey losing would be on a par (almost) with the Portillo moment.
I'm not sure anything will top that moment for me. That was brilliant.
Agree I loved that but strangely I have come to actually like him through his railway journeys programme. Seems half decent bloke to me.
so close I would suspect not until very late. In the past when there had been a swing as such you could judge the extent of it against the exit polls by the result in places like Basildon
i'd honestly be gobsmacked if ukip even maintain the number of seats that they currently have. 2.
If they do end up with two, that means that either one of their high-profile defectors (Reckless or Carswell) or Farage will lose. Which, among other things, will be absolutely bloody hilarious!
Agreed - Old Stripey losing would be on a par (almost) with the Portillo moment.
I'm not sure anything will top that moment for me. That was brilliant.
Agree I loved that but strangely I have come to actually like him through his railway journeys programme. Seems half decent bloke to me.
There's nothing like trains to bring people together
My office is 7 people. I'm the only Labour voter 4 tories, 1 not voting and 1 green. I quite enjoy all the generic nonsense they are all spouting about the evil Labour party. They're talking to me as if I've got leprosy
Lol @cabbles my office, although much bigger, is much the same with me as the lone Labour man. So I sorted out my postal vote & booked a late, cheap villa in the Algarve! No champagne, but a Super Bock or two to get through the day. COYR!!!
For the entire campaign I was rock solid Tory but in a remarkable turn of events I ended up voting LibDem - being an active part of this thread helped me realise I was more of a centrist than I thought.
For the entire campaign I was rock solid Tory but in a remarkable turn of events I ended up voting LibDem - being an active part of this thread helped me realise I was more of a centrist than I thought.
Thanks to all concerned :-)
I'm closer to a LibDem than anything else but my constituency is a dead heat between Labour and Tory so I'm doing my bit for the cause and voting Tory with gritted teeth.
I'l be voting Labour tomorrow. They will slow down the process of denying healthcare and welfare to the poorest in our society, on principle the tories will speed that process up. They say they wont but they are lying. Their central principle is that society needs the poor to support the wealthy. The central principle of labour is thar wealth should, at least to some extent be shared. The idea that a few highly gifted entrepreneurs 'create' wealth for the rest of us is, to quote from another thread "beyond parody". Vote with your heart people.
What! You seriously believe that Tories are so evil that they would punish the poor in order that their rich friends can lead ever more opulent lives. How does that work then and what on earth would be the point anyway. Do you really believe that someone like Cameron needs to feather his own nest or that of his friends? Of course he does not and neither does Milliband for that matter. You'll probably find that there are more working class Tory MP's than Labour, most of whom have gone into politics straight from uni or have simply been "organisers" in the Union movement, never having had to run a business or run a budget in their lives. The truth is that the Government have to find a way of making 3 fit into 2 and any cuts are always going to affect the poor more than the rich unfortunately.
No. I think that the Tories have an idealistic opposition to the welfare state and the ownership of vital services by the people who use them. I don't really think they are evil. Just that they are committed to the old idea of wealth = entitlement.
I'l be voting Labour tomorrow. They will slow down the process of denying healthcare and welfare to the poorest in our society, on principle the tories will speed that process up. They say they wont but they are lying. Their central principle is that society needs the poor to support the wealthy. The central principle of labour is thar wealth should, at least to some extent be shared. The idea that a few highly gifted entrepreneurs 'create' wealth for the rest of us is, to quote from another thread "beyond parody". Vote with your heart people.
What! You seriously believe that Tories are so evil that they would punish the poor in order that their rich friends can lead ever more opulent lives. How does that work then and what on earth would be the point anyway. Do you really believe that someone like Cameron needs to feather his own nest or that of his friends? Of course he does not and neither does Milliband for that matter. You'll probably find that there are more working class Tory MP's than Labour, most of whom have gone into politics straight from uni or have simply been "organisers" in the Union movement, never having had to run a business or run a budget in their lives. The truth is that the Government have to find a way of making 3 fit into 2 and any cuts are always going to affect the poor more than the rich unfortunately.
No. I think that the Tories have an idealistic opposition to the welfare state and the ownership of vital services by the people who use them. I don't really think they are evil. Just that they are committed to the old idea of wealth = entitlement.
As opposed to Labour's "undeserved sense of entitlement = entitlement"?
I am tending to agree with Red_in_SE8 for slightly different reasons that the key to this election is starting to look like how the Lib Dems do. If they can retain more seats than was previously thought then we might well see another Tory / Lib Dem coalition. I don't think Labour have done enough to persuade Lib Dem voters in enough numbers to switch. I think natural Lib Dem voters might see it as their "duty" to return Liberal Democrat MP's in enough numbers to temper the rabid right.
Comments
2. I already covered this bit earlier, yes snap elections can no longer be called but in reality if the party of government wants to dissolve Parliament on the basis it is no longer able to govern effectively, I doubt the other parties would seriously vote to keep that party IN office.
Part of my plan for this evening is to watch C4 at 8.30 to see 'The Vote'. The Vote is a play set in a polling station which has been running at the Donmar Warehouse, and tonight is it's last night. C4 will be broadcasting the performance live.
It finishes at 10, then on to the Election coverage and the exit polls and the like. Might sneak in W1A on catch up whilst it all happens.
Weird sleeping in the day tho', need a shower to wake myself up!
http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-03-20/judi-dench-and-mark-gatiss-polling-station-play-the-vote-to-be-broadcast-live-on-election-night
A vote of no confidence in the government doesn't lead to an election. It leads to another attempt to form a government. Perfectly possible for a minority government to survive no confidence votes by smaller parties abstaining if they don't want an election. Happened frequently in 1978/9 until the nationalists decided to pull the plug on Uncle Jim.
I'm not sure anything will top that moment for me. That was brilliant.
The new rules prevent the PM from choosing the election date, or even year to suit themselves (remember Cameron bleating at Brown, trying to goad him into going to the country early?). But they also make a minority government more stable, precisely because they don't need the type of deal (ie a confidence and supply; as opposed to coalition) that Miliband has ruled out with SNP.
Ironically, the behind-the-scenes, backroom agreements that Cameron and Clegg conjured up, prior to the Rose Garden press conference in 2010 could be precisely what is needed to ensure that neither of them gets a whiff of government office ever again!
Can't stay up all night as got a mate of work day planned for tomorrow, so gonna try the get up early approach. Is 4am too late for the good stuff?
There's nothing like trains to bring people together
It's purely about who will cut a deal with who.
The most likely is Labour ruling with the support of SNP.
2nd most likely is a Tory/Lib Dem/ DUP coalition/agreement.
Thanks to all concerned :-)
Most results should be in by 6am, with a few stragglers due some time tomorrow.
Having said that, there may well be no conclusion by then, as the parties will need to negotiate.
Result could become clear by the end of May
:-)
Wonder if anyone will be Sky plussing thought the night, get s good nights kip, then watch the whole thing delayed from the morning !