Blimey, hold up guys. Need Phil Smith to do his stuff yet. He's got a interesting task this year with Many Clouds carrying 11.09 last time - the biggest winning burden for 41 years (if you exclude the peerless Red Rum, 65 years). I don't think employing my existing model is worth the candle this year if they're going to let the ground get as quick as last time. Either MC was an outlier from a stats' perspective, in which case he could easily defy top-weight a la Red Rum, or the character of the race has indeed been altered (at least on fast ground) by the alterations made since 2012. If the latter is true, it will require a new model and a bigger sample of races, to re-establish a viable degree of confidence. Happy to contribute to the thread, more or less as normal, of course and there will no doubt be some stat-based selections but probably based on a heavily stripped back version of the old (i.e. an embryonic attempt at a new) model. More anon.
Still early doors and not sure what kind of model I'll be using this year, if any, but at this stage I'm rather taken with Shotgun Paddy at 50/1 (120 Betfair)
Still early doors and not sure what kind of model I'll be using this year, if any, but at this stage I'm rather taken with Shotgun Paddy at 50/1 (120 Betfair)
Still early doors and not sure what kind of model I'll be using this year, if any, but at this stage I'm rather taken with Shotgun Paddy at 50/1 (120 Betfair)
With only 10-03 he is unlikely to get a run
He (all those with 10.03 in fact) will be unlucky not to get a run actually len90.
He is currently number 63 on the card and the entries allotted 10.03 are #60~63 on the card (priority among them will be determined by the actual OR at declarations).
For the last 6 GNs, the lowest on the card at framing of the weights to get a run on the big day were:
Buywise to place - like finding money in the street ;-)
AA backs an Evan WIlliams' runner in the GN!....it's like deja vu all over again ;o)
Can't stand the trainer - and even more so Moloney as you know PM. It's become an addiction though - and the fear that he might actually try and win the race as opposed to schooling it round the course.
Last year I spent months planning bets, got tips left right and centre and read the racing post for weeks on end in the build up, only to see 2 horses fall and the other finish second to last.
I'm betting the same as my Nan this year, picking names and colours I like, because this race is harder to call than the royal rumble.
Peanuts: do I assume that my early bet on Mountainous is lost then as I cannot see his name on the provisional list of runners?
He's been entered Chief and is one of 7 allotted 10.01 (#70~76 in the list at the moment). Not certain to get a run (see my post above) and it would help if he were to win his prep [entered in the GN Trial at Haydock on Saturday & in the Eider a week later] as that should give him a hike in his future OR to put him at or near the top of the 10.01s. If memory serves, so long as he is declared, if he doesn't make the cut your stake is returned with an ante-post bet. Snag is the trainer might scratch him before decs if she thinks he needs it soft to be competitive (though he was travelling nicely on decent ground when tipping up 2 years ago).
Comments
He's got a interesting task this year with Many Clouds carrying 11.09 last time - the biggest winning burden for 41 years (if you exclude the peerless Red Rum, 65 years). I don't think employing my existing model is worth the candle this year if they're going to let the ground get as quick as last time.
Either MC was an outlier from a stats' perspective, in which case he could easily defy top-weight a la Red Rum, or the character of the race has indeed been altered (at least on fast ground) by the alterations made since 2012.
If the latter is true, it will require a new model and a bigger sample of races, to re-establish a viable degree of confidence.
Happy to contribute to the thread, more or less as normal, of course and there will no doubt be some stat-based selections but probably based on a heavily stripped back version of the old (i.e. an embryonic attempt at a new) model.
More anon.
Anyway, looking forward to your analysis over the coming months Peanuts.
Game on.
He is currently number 63 on the card and the entries allotted 10.03 are #60~63 on the card (priority among them will be determined by the actual OR at declarations).
For the last 6 GNs, the lowest on the card at framing of the weights to get a run on the big day were:
2015: 69
2014: 79
2013: 72
2012: 72
2011: 69
2010: 78
I'm betting the same as my Nan this year, picking names and colours I like, because this race is harder to call than the royal rumble.
Not certain to get a run (see my post above) and it would help if he were to win his prep [entered in the GN Trial at Haydock on Saturday & in the Eider a week later] as that should give him a hike in his future OR to put him at or near the top of the 10.01s.
If memory serves, so long as he is declared, if he doesn't make the cut your stake is returned with an ante-post bet. Snag is the trainer might scratch him before decs if she thinks he needs it soft to be competitive (though he was travelling nicely on decent ground when tipping up 2 years ago).