Cheers peanuts and thanks to bet365 for paying half stake back and 100/1 when I backed at 80/1 Friday night. Would anyone know bet365 market share on the race.
Got a little pay out on an E/W on Vics Canvas. Thank you very much Peanuts! At least the rubbish result at Loftus Road was tempered by a winning flutter I had.
Cheers Gents. Just after the last fence it really looked like he was gonna break a 93 year drought for 13 year-old winners but he just emptied out completely at The Elbow. Delighted the old boy did himself (and us) proud even so. All the best.
Looked to me like he lost some momentum by having to come in to avoid off the rail mate
I thought the same, like he got a bit confused by the rail right in front of him and lost concentration. However, he did seem pretty legless in the last 50 yards and there was no stopping Rule The World, a much bigger animal than either Samuri or Vic and full of running. That Bechers' incident, miraculous though it was that the jock stayed on let alone get him into a winning position, must have taken a lot out of him, aside from the lost ground. What might have been?
First cut of the stats of entries for Saturday's Scottish National.
From the current top 30 on the card, based on stats of winners and <5L near-missers (33 in total) of the last 15 renewals, there's a shortlist of 7 Possibles:
DOLATULO BENVOLIO MILANSBAR SHOTGUN PADDY MOUNTAINOUS MIDNIGHT PRAYER ZIGA BOY
Of these, minor stat advantage goes to:
BENVOLIO 33/1 and MILANSBAR 22/1
Obviously have to wait for decs (not sure whether they're tomorrow or Friday) to see whether the weights go up (shouldn't affect these 2) and which of those further down the weights get a run and could be candidates.
Sausalito Sunrise has been scratched at final decs this morning, so Cause Of Causes now top-weight with 11.12. Other notables scratched:
OSCAR ROCK SOUTHFIELD THEATRE GALLANT OSCAR ROGUE ANGEL BENVOLIO (shame - runs at Cheltenham today) THUNDER & ROSES SEGO SUCCESS VIVALDI COLLONGES MOUNTAINOUS ZIGA BOY ON TOUR WARDEN HILL NO SECRETS AMIGO
Heavy rain forecast for Ayr tomorrow afternoon. Ground has been described in the past week as Soft so likely at best to be GS on Saturday and more likely Soft. When sorting through one of the highest quality fields for the Scot Nat in years, you may find the stats of the 5 winners and 3 near-missers of the renewals on GS or softer since 1989 noteworthy:
7 of the 8 carried no more than 10.05 BUT top-weight Grey Abbey won it by a distance on 2004 and he was among 5 of the 8 that had form at 30f+.
So, either a light weight or a win or near-miss at 3.75m+(or made first 4 in previous Scot Nat) would seem to be a must.
As regards proven stamina, those that tick the box:
CAUSE OF CAUSES MILANSBAR SHOTGUN PADDY ROYALE KNIGHT EMPERORS CHOICE MIDNIGHT PRAYER PINEAU DE RE MILBOROUGH (but has recorded 2 falls at Ayr) HEATHFIELD TOUR DES CHAMPS ALVARADO SUN CLOUD FULL JACK
Given the light representation of Irish runners down the years, one should prudently add FOLSOM BLUE (4th Irish National on Y/Sft)
Blimey, another example of (IMO) "garbage in, garbage out" in the world of trend-following racing punditry.
Sporting Life's Ian Ogg's take on Saturday's Scot Nat based on the stats of the last 10 winners (only) includes the comment:
"Milansbar, Cogry and Spookydooky all ran well in the Midlands National but no recent winner has come via the Uttoxeter contest"
Strictly speaking true but:
Big Occasion was 4L 2nd in 2013 having won the Midlands National the previous month and
Goonyella was 0.75L 2nd last year having done likewise.
His selection of Heathfield could well win, or in any event significantly out-run all of my fellas, but it is possible to be right for the wrong reasons.
Belated thanks Peanuts for your usual excellent Grand National analysis!
I know LLG has been on already but we made a healthy profit pretty much exclusively because of your analysis as much as your eventual selections.
We had an interest in Rule The World and Goonyella as well as Vics Canvas because you identified their suitability to soft ground.
Thanks again.
LOL. Cheers Len, you've no idea how happy I am to know that you and LLG made out like bandits and I didn't 'cos I didn't box 'em up right!! Seriously, you're most welcome and many congrats for sorting the wheat from the chaff so astutely.
PS Not likely that my Scot Nat calculations will be as rewarding - never won a brass razoo at Ayr! All the best.
Going at Ayr GS(Soft places). Race times yesterday confirm there is plenty of cut and, despite a sunny morning forecast today, it will as usual take some getting. If it remains predominantly GS for the race, aside from others, the key "sine qua non" stats for winning or finishing <5L on the going are:
10-05 or less (incl jockey's allowance) - qualifiers:
FOLSOM BLUE (marginal stat negative - no win current or previous season, though 6.25L in recent Irish Nat [33/33 SN winners & <5L since 2001 had a win]) MILBOROUGH (stat neg - record in 3 starts over Ayr's fences outside novice company includes an F and UR [33/33 had max 1 non-nov ch F/UR at any course) TOUR DES CHAMPS SUN CLOUD (stat neg - jumping [33/33] and no Class 1 or 32f+ win [32/33] but 30f win)
and/or:
win or near-miss (<5L) in 30f+ chase or placed (up to 4th) in previous Scot Nat - qualifiers:
CAUSE OF CAUSES (marginal stat negative - OR155 exceeds highest [33/33 = OR154 or lower]) MILANSBAR SHOTGUN PADDY ROYALE KNIGHT (marginal stat neg - 4 runs and 56 days since last is outside norm [28/33 were max 42 and 5 exceptions all 5+ season runs]) EMPERORS CHOICE (stat-neg - 98 days and only 2 season's runs [33/33 = 3+] MIDNIGHT PRAYER PINEAU DE RE (marginal stat neg - 13y-o [33/33 11y-o or younger, but modest representation of 12+y-os]) MILBOROUGH (stat neg - jumping) HEATHFIELD (marginal stat neg - no Class 1 or 32f+ win and best recorded chase RPR138 and carrying 10-07 today, below lowest [30/33 = 140+ and 3 exceptions carried max 10-00]) TOUR DES CHAMPS ALVARADO (based upon his two-times GN 4th) (stat neg - only 1 run in the season [33/33 = 3+) SUN CLOUD (stat neg - jumping and no Class 1 or 32f+ win [32/33])
One could add GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN to the list on the grounds that he fell at the last when clear and looking the winner in the Midlands National (he's a big threat but 3 Falls in non-novice chases is a stat- No No) and FOLSOM BLUE given his 4th in the 29f Irish National (but no win or <5L since March 2014).
Best prices for my 4 (5 places) this morning:
MILANSBAR 28/1 SHOTGUN PADDY 28/1 MIDNIGHT PRAYER 33/1 TOUR DES CHAMPS 33/1
Biggest threats on GS: Cause Of Causes, Royale Knight, Pineau De Re, Heathfield and Folsom Blue)
Thanks PM. Going to add Highland Lodge to your four as I love to back horses leaving stables that, for "lurgy" or other reasons have under-performed for their previous handler.
Watch Shotgun romp home now to prove she can train - let's hope so ;-)
Comments
and thanks to bet365 for paying half stake back and 100/1 when I backed at 80/1 Friday night.
Would anyone know bet365 market share on the race.
This thread right now (well, probably a couple nights ago):
Thank you Peanuts!
Was a great race, and further outlines why the GN is still a highlight of the sporting calender.
Delighted the old boy did himself (and us) proud even so.
All the best.
That Bechers' incident, miraculous though it was that the jock stayed on let alone get him into a winning position, must have taken a lot out of him, aside from the lost ground.
What might have been?
Will be having a butchers shortly nonetheless.
From the current top 30 on the card, based on stats of winners and <5L near-missers (33 in total) of the last 15 renewals, there's a shortlist of 7 Possibles:
DOLATULO
BENVOLIO
MILANSBAR
SHOTGUN PADDY
MOUNTAINOUS
MIDNIGHT PRAYER
ZIGA BOY
Of these, minor stat advantage goes to:
BENVOLIO 33/1 and
MILANSBAR 22/1
Obviously have to wait for decs (not sure whether they're tomorrow or Friday) to see whether the weights go up (shouldn't affect these 2) and which of those further down the weights get a run and could be candidates.
Also want to wait for 5 e/w places to be offered.
Other notables scratched:
OSCAR ROCK
SOUTHFIELD THEATRE
GALLANT OSCAR
ROGUE ANGEL
BENVOLIO (shame - runs at Cheltenham today)
THUNDER & ROSES
SEGO SUCCESS
VIVALDI COLLONGES
MOUNTAINOUS
ZIGA BOY
ON TOUR
WARDEN HILL
NO SECRETS
AMIGO
Heavy rain forecast for Ayr tomorrow afternoon. Ground has been described in the past week as Soft so likely at best to be GS on Saturday and more likely Soft.
When sorting through one of the highest quality fields for the Scot Nat in years, you may find the stats of the 5 winners and 3 near-missers of the renewals on GS or softer since 1989 noteworthy:
7 of the 8 carried no more than 10.05
BUT top-weight Grey Abbey won it by a distance on 2004 and he was among 5 of the 8 that had form at 30f+.
So, either a light weight or a win or near-miss at 3.75m+(or made first 4 in previous Scot Nat) would seem to be a must.
As regards proven stamina, those that tick the box:
CAUSE OF CAUSES
MILANSBAR
SHOTGUN PADDY
ROYALE KNIGHT
EMPERORS CHOICE
MIDNIGHT PRAYER
PINEAU DE RE
MILBOROUGH (but has recorded 2 falls at Ayr)
HEATHFIELD
TOUR DES CHAMPS
ALVARADO
SUN CLOUD
FULL JACK
Given the light representation of Irish runners down the years, one should prudently add FOLSOM BLUE (4th Irish National on Y/Sft)
Long-list of stat-based POSSIBLES reads:
DOLATULO
MILANSBAR
SHOTGUN PADDY
MIDNIGHT PRAYER
PINEAU DE RE
TOUR DES CHAMPS
Stat preferences go to (and I shall be backing each 5 places e/w) in card order:
MILANSBAR 20/1
SHOTGUN PADDY 25/1
MIDNIGHT PRAYER 33/1
TOUR DES CHAMPS 25/1
Good luck all.
Sporting Life's Ian Ogg's take on Saturday's Scot Nat based on the stats of the last 10 winners (only) includes the comment:
"Milansbar, Cogry and Spookydooky all ran well in the Midlands National but no recent winner has come via the Uttoxeter contest"
Strictly speaking true but:
Big Occasion was 4L 2nd in 2013 having won the Midlands National the previous month and
Goonyella was 0.75L 2nd last year having done likewise.
His selection of Heathfield could well win, or in any event significantly out-run all of my fellas, but it is possible to be right for the wrong reasons.
I know LLG has been on already but we made a healthy profit pretty much exclusively because of your analysis as much as your eventual selections.
We had an interest in Rule The World and Goonyella, as well as Vics Canvas, because you identified their suitability to soft ground.
Thanks again.
Seriously, you're most welcome and many congrats for sorting the wheat from the chaff so astutely.
PS Not likely that my Scot Nat calculations will be as rewarding - never won a brass razoo at Ayr!
All the best.
Race times yesterday confirm there is plenty of cut and, despite a sunny morning forecast today, it will as usual take some getting.
If it remains predominantly GS for the race, aside from others, the key "sine qua non" stats for winning or finishing <5L on the going are:
10-05 or less (incl jockey's allowance) - qualifiers:
FOLSOM BLUE (marginal stat negative - no win current or previous season, though 6.25L in recent Irish Nat [33/33 SN winners & <5L since 2001 had a win])
MILBOROUGH (stat neg - record in 3 starts over Ayr's fences outside novice company includes an F and UR [33/33 had max 1 non-nov ch F/UR at any course)
TOUR DES CHAMPS
SUN CLOUD (stat neg - jumping [33/33] and no Class 1 or 32f+ win [32/33] but 30f win)
and/or:
win or near-miss (<5L) in 30f+ chase or placed (up to 4th) in previous Scot Nat - qualifiers:
CAUSE OF CAUSES (marginal stat negative - OR155 exceeds highest [33/33 = OR154 or lower])
MILANSBAR
SHOTGUN PADDY
ROYALE KNIGHT (marginal stat neg - 4 runs and 56 days since last is outside norm [28/33 were max 42 and 5 exceptions all 5+ season runs])
EMPERORS CHOICE (stat-neg - 98 days and only 2 season's runs [33/33 = 3+]
MIDNIGHT PRAYER
PINEAU DE RE (marginal stat neg - 13y-o [33/33 11y-o or younger, but modest representation of 12+y-os])
MILBOROUGH (stat neg - jumping)
HEATHFIELD (marginal stat neg - no Class 1 or 32f+ win and best recorded chase RPR138 and carrying 10-07 today, below lowest [30/33 = 140+ and 3 exceptions carried max 10-00])
TOUR DES CHAMPS
ALVARADO (based upon his two-times GN 4th) (stat neg - only 1 run in the season [33/33 = 3+)
SUN CLOUD (stat neg - jumping and no Class 1 or 32f+ win [32/33])
One could add GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN to the list on the grounds that he fell at the last when clear and looking the winner in the Midlands National (he's a big threat but 3 Falls in non-novice chases is a stat- No No) and FOLSOM BLUE given his 4th in the 29f Irish National (but no win or <5L since March 2014).
Best prices for my 4 (5 places) this morning:
MILANSBAR 28/1
SHOTGUN PADDY 28/1
MIDNIGHT PRAYER 33/1
TOUR DES CHAMPS 33/1
Biggest threats on GS: Cause Of Causes, Royale Knight, Pineau De Re, Heathfield and Folsom Blue)
Good luck all.
Ill let you know what my little fellas pick is as well
Watch Shotgun romp home now to prove she can train - let's hope so ;-)