Cheers PM. I'm also quite popular amongst some friends, I of course gave you some small credit for it.
Cheers coltthe3rd. Thankful of course that the jockey pulled off a miracle to stay on board at Bechers but, nonetheless, a case of "what if". Really proud of the old boy though. Great run. All the best.
Even if you ignore Peanuts advice, the thread itself is one of those I look forward to each year and I follow it religiously.
My own thoughts managed to win me a fiver with a couple of quid each way on 5th place.
Peanuts clear and precise analysis managed to give me a £5 e/w winner ar 50/1 and a £5 e/w third at 66/1.
Sod my Road Tax. I guarantee any new owner that two new season tickets will be bought the minute they takeover from the Belgium mafia.
Cheers Addickted, Many congrats on getting the winner as well. Great stuff. With a Mouse Morris National double, smiffy must have enough in his kitty to make RD an offer he can't refuse.
thanks PM for the tips and thanks for Bet365 for refunding half of all EW bets meaning i kept backing and backing and backing PM's choices until all my original stake dwindled and meant i was in for less and made more ! marvellous.
Top tipping again Peanuts. A hundred and fifty quid profit for me plus the enjoyment of following your thread for a couple months (I know you didn't start it this year but it belongs to you 100%). The perfect antidote to the grim goings on at our club.
Cheers everyone for your kind comments. Very much appreciated. Naturally delighted that Vic did us proud. Huge plaudits and congrats to those that picked out Rule The World. He was every bit a "left field" selection as Vic. As for smiffy scoring the National double, he really is THE MAN. Nice one Chief. Will no doubt have a lash at Ayr next Saturday, as some of those that would have figured among my selections may line up, but the Scottish National result has always been a complete mystery to me so high caution advised. At least Rule The World wasn't such a GN model-annihilator as Many Clouds had been (just at the edge of the radar screen), so will give it the annual MOT and tune-up and, hopefully, be ready for action again in 2017. Thanks again and all the best.
COYR - we've been there before. However long it takes and however painful it gets in the meantime, WE'LL BE BACK.
Grateful for any light shed on this Chaps. I've been a bit puzzled by the Racing Post and Timeform all citing the GN distance since 2013 as 34.5 furlongs. I strongly believe that is wrong and that it is 35.5 furlongs. The distance was seemingly 36f up to and including 2012. The Racing Post shows 4m4f on all its GN results prior to 2013 (despite adjusting to precise 0.5f gradations of distance for all race results much further back in time) and the Aintree website states clearly: "Since 2013, the start of the race is now 90 yards closer to the first fence, reducing the race to four miles and three-and-a-half furlongs, from four-and-a-half miles......" It certainly MUST have been reduced by only 1/2 furlong or the change in "standard time" (from 9m10s to 9m4s) wouldn't make any sense - staying chasers travelling at approx 5L per second, thus 6secs = 30L = 1/2 furlong. If it had been reduced by 1.5f the std time should have fallen by 15 secs. SO, was the race only in fact ever over 35f rather than 36f or are racing experts now routinely getting the trip wrong? Personally, I suspect it's the latter, extraordinary though that seems. Though it could explain RP's time-adjusted going diverging from the Official for the 2014 and 2015 GNs.
Was you a bit disappointed the way ManyClouds run out of gas Peanuts. Was racking him all the way round and thought he was getting a lovely gently ride, but then just couldn't go with it. Ground a factor for him?
Was you a bit disappointed the way ManyClouds run out of gas Peanuts. Was racking him all the way round and thought he was getting a lovely gently ride, but then just couldn't go with it. Ground a factor for him?
Was surprised at the time but, apparently, he had a breathing problem. Not uncommon and (usually) easily remedied and might explain the "wobble" that had been reported after previous races. Maybe a bit too testing for him at the pace they went. Other than Home Farm, all my fellas were right up there after a circuit. Aachen took off way too soon at the water and put down in it (often a more taxing mistake that one might imagine) but probably wouldn't have got home having been ridden so aggressively - couldn't understand it myself as he;d never gone further than 26f but presumably his jockey was riding to orders. He did ride Across The Bay that way twice in the GN and, as yesterday, wasn't able to keep him away from being interfered with by loose horses. Saint Are seemed to be moving on the ground fine but it's his jumping that seems to go to pot on softer ground, as it did in the Becher last time and again yesterday. Thank gawd for Vic and the miracle at Bechers.
Great question Peanuts about the distance and thought it was just me who couldn't work it out? I did have the same theory as yourself about the so called racing experts getting it wrong as when I was there in 1986 i did the tour which included walking the whole course (what an experience when it was proper National fences) and here goes another sad fact even stood on top of Beachers after the race and still have some birch from it.Sorry Peanuts ive drifted the distance was talked about then and has been set in stone at 36f.My other theory is that more has been taken off the distance without being announced and if it ever was or has been questioned they could use the excuse of moving the rails.
Great question Peanuts about the distance and thought it was just me who couldn't work it out? I did have the same theory as yourself about the so called racing experts getting it wrong as when I was there in 1986 i did the tour which included walking the whole course (what an experience when it was proper National fences) and here goes another sad fact even stood on top of Beachers after the race and still have some birch from it.Sorry Peanuts ive drifted the distance was talked about then and has been set in stone at 36f.My other theory is that more has been taken off the distance without being announced and if it ever was or has been questioned they could use the excuse of moving the rails.
Thanks for that killer (just as well you were sober when scaling Bechers )
Much appreciate your thoughts.
I had wondered if they'd moved the start again after the first 90 yard move but the RP gives 34.5f as the trip for the 2013, the first GN after the changes.
It is definitely just a 90 yard shortening because:
1. The drop in standard time of 6 seconds can only be consistent with that (if it were 300 yards shorter, the new std time would imply a significantly slower pace for the race now, despite shorter trip and "easier" fences - clearly not true).
2. We know that the finishing line hasn't moved and the fence locations are fixed and, by means of Racing UK footage on youtube, I timed them getting to the first fence pre- and post-2012 (on broadly similar ground) and found the difference to be about 5 seconds - as one would expect for a shortening by 90 yards. If the shortening were 300 yards, it would mean that they now barely break into a canter getting to the first(!) - again, obviously not so.
So, I'm totally certain the trip's only been shortened by 90 yards.
However, what was the actual distance of the GN up to 2012 and what is it now?
By comparing the pace implied by the standard time for the GN with that for the chases on the GN course over 21f (Topham and Foxhunters, run at the GN meeting), it seems pretty clear that the Racing Post and Timeform are in fact correct now and that, contrary to how it's always been advertised, the GN (at least in modern times) was never run over 4m but, up to and including 2012, was a 35f race (despite the records, including those of the Racing Post, showing it as 36f).
How can we be reasonably sure of this?
Logically we would expect a 4m+ chase to be run in a slower time per furlong than a 2.5m chase over the same course - but how much slower?
If we look at std times at another flat-ish track with a Class 1 4 mile chase (Scottish National at Ayr) we find that the std time for Ayr's 4m chase is 0.67 seconds per furlong slower than that for Ayr's 2.5m chase.
The standard time for 21f races over the GN course at Aintree of 5m21s equates to a pace of 15.29 secs/furlong.
Pre-2013, the std time for the GN was 9m10s. If it were a true 4m race, that would equate to a pace of 15.28 secs/furlong (essentially the same pace as for the 21f trip!). If, as more likely, it were a 35f race that std time would equate to the more realistic 15.72secs/furlong, or 0.44 secs per furlong slower than the 21f trip. That's surely a more credible pace for a race over an extra mile and a half and even allows for the exceptionally competitive nature of the GN.
If anyone spots a flaw in this I'm very open to being proved wrong but, SHOCK HORROR, I reckon for years we've been done under the trade descriptions act - the GN wasn't a 4m chase!
I think I need a lie down....before adjusting all my historic pace calculations and going assessments
Cheers RIviera, Touch and go there for Vic - well, not so much touch and go as The Miracle of Bechers Brook - but the old boy done good. Shame he couldn't quite hang on at the finish. Next year....we'll land the WHOPPER!!
OK, mystery solved. Just come across this while googling. In May last year (I must have still been in a coma after Many Clouds' win) the BHA changed the way they measure the trip at all tracks - now going around the inside of the track, not the middle of the course. Obviously biggest effect on marathon trips. Gives you an idea how much further a horse has to go if they stay wide on the GN course - amazing. I reckon that Paul Moloney had it sussed, hugging the inner year after year - what do you reckon AA? Cheers chaps.
Sorry I'd forgotten all about the new measuring hence the stupid distances now like 1m 7f hurdle and chase races! At least your on the ball and I'm now fuming with myself for forgetting,well done Peanuts.
Reported in the Mail today that the GN will be run over a new advertised distance in 2016 after the method of calculating the distance has been changed. It will be officially over 4 miles two and a half furlongs as the distance will now be measured from a point two yards from the inside rail rather than the mid point of the track. I know it was reduced by a furlong two years ago to try and slow the horses on the run to the first fence but this all seems a bit unnecessary to me . What do you think Peanuts ?
So, answer is that the actual distance hasn't been further reduced. It was made 90 yards (1/2 furlong) shorter for 2013 onwards (to move the start and circling area away from the Main Stands) and it's still in the same place. They haven't moved the rails - the fences are in fixed locations. It's just the way they measure the distance has changed, makes the race appear to be over a shorter trip. The GN track is very wide of course and so, if they formerly measured the distance by going with their surveyor's wheel round the middle, one can see how now going round with it at the rail would greatly affect the final measurement. But the distance the horses have to travel hasn't changed since 2013. But, as I said, it implies that a horse going round the middle runs an extra furlong (c. 200 yards) compared to one going round the inner - that seems extraordinary but its a wide track and a marathon trip and maybe there was always a little "poetic licence" used in calling it a 4m race. Cheers.
Comments
Thankful of course that the jockey pulled off a miracle to stay on board at Bechers but, nonetheless, a case of "what if".
Really proud of the old boy though. Great run.
All the best.
My own thoughts managed to win me a fiver with a couple of quid each way on 5th place.
Peanuts clear and precise analysis managed to give me a £5 e/w winner ar 50/1 and a £5 e/w third at 66/1.
Sod my Road Tax. I guarantee any new owner that two new season tickets will be bought the minute they takeover from the Belgium mafia.
Many congrats on getting the winner as well. Great stuff.
With a Mouse Morris National double, smiffy must have enough in his kitty to make RD an offer he can't refuse.
Have a nice day!
75 up on football bets yesterday as well.
A good betting day.
Naturally delighted that Vic did us proud.
Huge plaudits and congrats to those that picked out Rule The World. He was every bit a "left field" selection as Vic. As for smiffy scoring the National double, he really is THE MAN. Nice one Chief.
Will no doubt have a lash at Ayr next Saturday, as some of those that would have figured among my selections may line up, but the Scottish National result has always been a complete mystery to me so high caution advised.
At least Rule The World wasn't such a GN model-annihilator as Many Clouds had been (just at the edge of the radar screen), so will give it the annual MOT and tune-up and, hopefully, be ready for action again in 2017.
Thanks again and all the best.
COYR - we've been there before. However long it takes and however painful it gets in the meantime, WE'LL BE BACK.
But £20 each way on Goonyella at 20/1 - all thanks to @PeanutsMolloy YAY!!!
I know naff all about horse racing but this annual tips-fest is brilliant.
Grateful for any light shed on this Chaps.
I've been a bit puzzled by the Racing Post and Timeform all citing the GN distance since 2013 as 34.5 furlongs.
I strongly believe that is wrong and that it is 35.5 furlongs.
The distance was seemingly 36f up to and including 2012. The Racing Post shows 4m4f on all its GN results prior to 2013 (despite adjusting to precise 0.5f gradations of distance for all race results much further back in time) and the Aintree website states clearly:
"Since 2013, the start of the race is now 90 yards closer to the first fence, reducing the race to four miles and three-and-a-half furlongs, from four-and-a-half miles......"
It certainly MUST have been reduced by only 1/2 furlong or the change in "standard time" (from 9m10s to 9m4s) wouldn't make any sense - staying chasers travelling at approx 5L per second, thus 6secs = 30L = 1/2 furlong. If it had been reduced by 1.5f the std time should have fallen by 15 secs.
SO, was the race only in fact ever over 35f rather than 36f or are racing experts now routinely getting the trip wrong?
Personally, I suspect it's the latter, extraordinary though that seems. Though it could explain RP's time-adjusted going diverging from the Official for the 2014 and 2015 GNs.
PS No LOLs please - this is serious stuff.
Also did the fairly easy double of Douvan and Thistlecrack so got most of my money back.
Well done again Peanuts.
Had Goonyella and VIc EW as you advised.
Maybe a bit too testing for him at the pace they went.
Other than Home Farm, all my fellas were right up there after a circuit.
Aachen took off way too soon at the water and put down in it (often a more taxing mistake that one might imagine) but probably wouldn't have got home having been ridden so aggressively - couldn't understand it myself as he;d never gone further than 26f but presumably his jockey was riding to orders. He did ride Across The Bay that way twice in the GN and, as yesterday, wasn't able to keep him away from being interfered with by loose horses.
Saint Are seemed to be moving on the ground fine but it's his jumping that seems to go to pot on softer ground, as it did in the Becher last time and again yesterday.
Thank gawd for Vic and the miracle at Bechers.
Very much appreciated.
Much appreciate your thoughts.
I had wondered if they'd moved the start again after the first 90 yard move but the RP gives 34.5f as the trip for the 2013, the first GN after the changes.
It is definitely just a 90 yard shortening because:
1. The drop in standard time of 6 seconds can only be consistent with that (if it were 300 yards shorter, the new std time would imply a significantly slower pace for the race now, despite shorter trip and "easier" fences - clearly not true).
2. We know that the finishing line hasn't moved and the fence locations are fixed and, by means of Racing UK footage on youtube, I timed them getting to the first fence pre- and post-2012 (on broadly similar ground) and found the difference to be about 5 seconds - as one would expect for a shortening by 90 yards. If the shortening were 300 yards, it would mean that they now barely break into a canter getting to the first(!) - again, obviously not so.
So, I'm totally certain the trip's only been shortened by 90 yards.
However, what was the actual distance of the GN up to 2012 and what is it now?
By comparing the pace implied by the standard time for the GN with that for the chases on the GN course over 21f (Topham and Foxhunters, run at the GN meeting), it seems pretty clear that the Racing Post and Timeform are in fact correct now and that, contrary to how it's always been advertised, the GN (at least in modern times) was never run over 4m but, up to and including 2012, was a 35f race (despite the records, including those of the Racing Post, showing it as 36f).
How can we be reasonably sure of this?
Logically we would expect a 4m+ chase to be run in a slower time per furlong than a 2.5m chase over the same course - but how much slower?
If we look at std times at another flat-ish track with a Class 1 4 mile chase (Scottish National at Ayr) we find that the std time for Ayr's 4m chase is 0.67 seconds per furlong slower than that for Ayr's 2.5m chase.
The standard time for 21f races over the GN course at Aintree of 5m21s equates to a pace of 15.29 secs/furlong.
Pre-2013, the std time for the GN was 9m10s. If it were a true 4m race, that would equate to a pace of 15.28 secs/furlong (essentially the same pace as for the 21f trip!). If, as more likely, it were a 35f race that std time would equate to the more realistic 15.72secs/furlong, or 0.44 secs per furlong slower than the 21f trip. That's surely a more credible pace for a race over an extra mile and a half and even allows for the exceptionally competitive nature of the GN.
If anyone spots a flaw in this I'm very open to being proved wrong but, SHOCK HORROR, I reckon for years we've been done under the trade descriptions act - the GN wasn't a 4m chase!
I think I need a lie down....before adjusting all my historic pace calculations and going assessments
Touch and go there for Vic - well, not so much touch and go as The Miracle of Bechers Brook - but the old boy done good. Shame he couldn't quite hang on at the finish.
Next year....we'll land the WHOPPER!!
Just come across this while googling.
In May last year (I must have still been in a coma after Many Clouds' win) the BHA changed the way they measure the trip at all tracks - now going around the inside of the track, not the middle of the course. Obviously biggest effect on marathon trips.
Gives you an idea how much further a horse has to go if they stay wide on the GN course - amazing.
I reckon that Paul Moloney had it sussed, hugging the inner year after year - what do you reckon AA?
Cheers chaps.
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/may/06/grand-national-distance-shortened-racing-remeasurements
It was made 90 yards (1/2 furlong) shorter for 2013 onwards (to move the start and circling area away from the Main Stands) and it's still in the same place. They haven't moved the rails - the fences are in fixed locations.
It's just the way they measure the distance has changed, makes the race appear to be over a shorter trip.
The GN track is very wide of course and so, if they formerly measured the distance by going with their surveyor's wheel round the middle, one can see how now going round with it at the rail would greatly affect the final measurement. But the distance the horses have to travel hasn't changed since 2013.
But, as I said, it implies that a horse going round the middle runs an extra furlong (c. 200 yards) compared to one going round the inner - that seems extraordinary but its a wide track and a marathon trip and maybe there was always a little "poetic licence" used in calling it a 4m race.
Cheers.