Ok chaps. With Perfect Candidate 3rd Reserve and highly unlikely to line up, I have a gap to fill (again!) on my slip and, to do so, I've decided to go slightly "off piste".
With the softer ground, Goonyella is very tempting and, if it were any other track, one can easily see him storming past them at the finish. However, I can’t get out of my head his very ordinary jumping on favoured ground in the Becher chase and, at the price, I’ll pass on him. I find nothing to excite me (other than Goonyella and the 3 I’ve already backed) among the other runners that meet the key stamina test on GS; those being:
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (softer going unhelpful) LE REVE (prefers going right-handed) RULE THE WORLD (poor stats for novices) JUST A PAR (at the trip, would prefer good ground) HADRIANS APPROACH (prefers good ground, not great stats)
So, where to go?
Next best-rated by my model on stats is DOUBLE ROSS but, as a full brother to Mr Moonshine and with nothing to suggest otherwise in his stats, on this ground it’s very doubtful that he’ll see out the trip.
Enter 12y-o AACHEN - 100/1 (BetVic 6 places).
Completely written off by the market but rated 9th by my model and, with meaningful cut in the ground, could make a strong show at a massive price.
Trained by Venetia Williams, could he spring the biggest surprise since her 100/1 GN winner Mon Mome? Well, he doesn’t have Mon Mome’s proven record at 3.5m+ (in fact, he started life on the flat, as did Red Rum) and, of course, no two horses are the same but there’s a notably similar pattern to their pre-GN seasons.
Prior to Mon Mome's 2009 GN win, he’d won the Class 1 26f chase at Cheltenham's December meeting and followed up with a respectable run in the Welsh National before a couple of stinkers as Aintree preps; hence his 100/1 SP at Aintree.
Compare with AACHEN’s record this season:
• Won the same Class 1 26f chase on Heavy in December at Cheltenham • Raised 13lbs, he followed up with a 0.25L 2nd on heavy in a Class 2 3m chase at Sandown, just headed by the course-loving Soll (more of that form below). • He’s put in a couple of stinkers on less demanding surfaces since and, as a result, comes to Aintree thoroughly unfancied.
However, that run at Sandown is particularly interesting because of the horse that finished 4th. Golden Chieftain was getting 12lbs from Aachen but was 28L behind him on ground that suited both horses. GC’s having an excellent season and effectively franked that form since with 1FF, especially with the 2 Falls because both (off a mark 5lbs higher than at Sandown) were late on when palpably the clear winner, including at the last fence in the Midlands National.
For that reason, the fact that Aachen’s OR is also +5lbs from his Sandown run shouldn’t necessarily deter if he gets his preferred conditions underfoot.
He’s never been tried beyond 26f but his sequence of 112 in 3~3.25m chases on Soft or Heavy ground (including twice at testing tracks) in mid-winter, finishing well each time, suggests that a longer trip on GS/Soft could be up his street.
He’s never faced the GN fences (though stats favour GN debutants) and it has to be cautioned that he may simply not take to the occasion (he is known to down tools) but he has a sound jumping record (no F or UR in 17 chases and 13 hurdles).
As with Vics Canvas, if you fancy following my long-shot selections, it may well be the case that, as the money comes for the main players, the long-shots drift even further in price but 100/1 6 places is fine for me.
So, my final (yes FINAL) betting slip reads:
MANY CLOUDS 8/1 (e/w 5 places) VICS CANVAS 66/1 (e/w 6 places) SAINT ARE 25/1 (e/w 5 places) AACHEN 100/1 (e/w 6 places)
Whichever horses are carrying your shillings, good luck all. Let’s hope all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
@PeanutsMolloy really enjoyed your input this year. It would be great if you could host a regular tipping thread as I'm partial to a flutter although my knowledge is limited.
Ok chaps. With Perfect Candidate 3rd Reserve and highly unlikely to line up, I have a gap to fill (again!) on my slip and, to do so, I've decided to go slightly "off piste".
With the softer ground, Goonyella is very tempting and, if it were any other track, one can easily see him storming past them at the finish. However, I can’t get out of my head his very ordinary jumping on favoured ground in the Becher chase and, at the price, I’ll pass on him. I find nothing to excite me (other than Goonyella and the 3 I’ve already backed) among the other runners that meet the key stamina test on GS; those being:
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (softer going unhelpful) LE REVE (prefers going right-handed) RULE THE WORLD (poor stats for novices) JUST A PAR (at the trip, would prefer good ground) HADRIANS APPROACH (prefers good ground, not great stats)
So, where to go?
Next best-rated by my model on stats is DOUBLE ROSS but, as a full brother to Mr Moonshine and with nothing to suggest otherwise in his stats, on this ground it’s very doubtful that he’ll see out the trip.
Enter 12y-o AACHEN - 100/1 (BetVic 6 places).
Completely written off by the market but rated 9th by my model and, with meaningful cut in the ground, could make a strong show at a massive price.
Trained by Venetia Williams, could he spring the biggest surprise since her 100/1 GN winner Mon Mome? Well, he doesn’t have Mon Mome’s proven record at 3.5m+ (in fact, he started life on the flat, as did Red Rum) and, of course, no two horses are the same but there’s a notably similar pattern to their pre-GN seasons.
Prior to Mon Mome's 2009 GN win, he’d won the Class 1 26f chase at Cheltenham's December meeting and followed up with a respectable run in the Welsh National before a couple of stinkers as Aintree preps; hence his 100/1 SP at Aintree.
Compare with AACHEN’s record this season:
• Won the same Class 1 26f chase on Heavy in December at Cheltenham • Raised 13lbs, he followed up with a 0.25L 2nd on heavy in a Class 2 3m chase at Sandown, just headed by the course-loving Soll (more of that form below). • He’s put in a couple of stinkers on less demanding surfaces since and, as a result, comes to Aintree thoroughly unfancied.
However, that run at Sandown is particularly interesting because of the horse that finished 4th. Golden Chieftain was getting 12lbs from Aachen but was 28L behind him on ground that suited both horses. GC’s having an excellent season and effectively franked that form since with 1FF, especially with the 2 Falls because both (off a mark 5lbs higher than at Sandown) were late on when palpably the clear winner, including at the last fence in the Midlands National.
For that reason, the fact that Aachen’s OR is also +5lbs from his Sandown run shouldn’t necessarily deter if he gets his preferred conditions underfoot.
He’s never been tried beyond 26f but his sequence of 112 in 3~3.25m chases on Soft or Heavy ground (including twice at testing tracks) in mid-winter, finishing well each time, suggests that a longer trip on GS/Soft could be up his street.
He’s never faced the GN fences (though stats favour GN debutants) and it has to be cautioned that he may simply not take to the occasion (he is known to down tools) but he has a sound jumping record (no F or UR in 17 chases and 13 hurdles).
As with Vics Canvas, if you fancy following my long-shot selections, it may well be the case that, as the money comes for the main players, the long-shots drift even further in price but 100/1 6 places is fine for me.
So, my final (yes FINAL) betting slip reads:
MANY CLOUDS 8/1 (e/w 5 places) VICS CANVAS 66/1 (e/w 6 places) SAINT ARE 25/1 (e/w 5 places) AACHEN 100/1 (e/w 6 places)
Whichever horses are carrying your shillings, good luck all. Let’s hope all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
.....
The national is such a hard race to predict!
Bloody right, haven't had a winner for 6 years
Cheers Chief but, apart from being a one-trick pony, I need a long lie down after this every year.
Thanks again Peanuts, love this thread and the build up it gives to the National.
Vics Canvas helped cover all others, so ended in profit with a whopping £3! But my first profit for a few years I think.
Cheers Chief. Thank gawd you didn't pick him to leave out. Have to say I always felt good about him doing himself credit but when they said horrible mistake at Bechers I thought, Oh well not Vic's day, at least 3 others were going well. He really looked like the winner after the last but that Rule The World is a big horse and just blew past the front 2. A worthy and gutsy winner and runner-up.
The wife, five and two year olds and mother in law all picked a horse and left me with one pick. Was hoping they would pick some of peanuts but alas we now have a slip of each way bets on:
First Lieutenant Rocky Creek Last Samuri Wonderful Charm And I chose Vics Canvas for mine.
@PeanutsMolloy thanks mate - just picked up on your outsiders having not really opened this thread until the other day. £40 profit thanks to Vics Canvas.
You're a real legend to give us all the time and effort on here
I took my lead from the tipster in the daily mirror, you'll be pleased to know you more than outperformed him Peanuts, must get on this earlier next year.
A simple 'Thank You' from me to Peanuts; not only for another net profit but also for another superb thread this year. Definitely a CL Legend. Missing it already. Cheers Pal/Chief/Mate.
Just checked the betting slip and was mistaken, actually got nearly 50 quid back so maybe a trip out for dinner rather than a takeaway. Cheers Peanuts!
Comments
Done vics canvas on antepost and got 66/1. And that's what they paid out.
The national is such a hard race to predict!
Vics Canvas helped cover all others, so ended in profit with a whopping £3! But my first profit for a few years I think.
Cheers Chief but, apart from being a one-trick pony, I need a long lie down after this every year.
He really looked like the winner after the last but that Rule The World is a big horse and just blew past the front 2. A worthy and gutsy winner and runner-up.
Thanks for all your tips - cracking thread as ever.
#legend.
As always, thread of the year for me.
Regards to Len.
You're a real legend to give us all the time and effort on here
Thanks PM
Great stuff pal.
Indian tonight
My wife and son did thank you Peanuts!
I took my lead from the tipster in the daily mirror, you'll be pleased to know you more than outperformed him Peanuts, must get on this earlier next year.
My son was on vics canvas each way at 100-1
Youve missed a trick.