The one on my slip that may not appreciate the softer going is SAINT ARE. Happy to still have him because, courtesy of the "quality" of the field, there's precious few alternatives proven at 4m+ other than GOONYELLA, who is the obvious mudlark in the line-up BUT has jumped the GN fences poorly twice, most recently and notably on his preferred ground.
However, aside from the 3 others on my slip, could there be another runner with staying form and a penchant for soft ground?
Dont't forget, the last Soft ground (RP's time-assessed) GN (2009) threw up one funky result, with two 100/1 shots making the front 5, including of course winner Mon Mome.
Well, there's RULE THE WORLD 50/1, runner-up in the Soft ground 2014 Irish Nat. But he remains a maiden over fences and, while he clearly handles testing ground, his breeding casts significant doubt that he would see out the GN trip on such ground. Technically a second season novice, the GN stats for novices, regardless of age, is atrocious.
Enter fellow Irish-trained HOME FARM 100/1 6 places BetVic.
Why? Two reasons:
1. He's bred to stay and relish Soft ground.
He's from the family of Jodami, heavy-ground Irish Hennessy winner and winner and runner-up of Cheltenham Gold Cups.
Like Goonyella he's by Presenting (sired GN winner Ballabriggs and many other top staying chasers at home on any ground).
His dam-sire is Good Thyne (sire of several high class staying chasers that loved soft ground, including Chives, twice made the front 3 in the Welsh National with big weights on heavy, and Samlee, who made the frame in heavy-ground Aintree and Welsh Nationals and was runner-up in the Scottish).
2. As a novice, was a (slightly unlucky, hampered 3 out) staying on 3rd (3L) in the Y/Soft ground 2013 Irish National. The following December, under a big weight, was 6.5L 5th in the Paddy Power chase on Soft, giving 10lbs to runner-up Cause Of Causes (his best two runs for trainer Arthur Moore).
Moving to the astute Henry de Bromhead's yard, he scored his highest chase RPR of 153 when taking a Listed 2.75m chase on Soft a year later before falling at the 1st in the 2014 Lexus the following month.
It is true that his record since then has been patchy but that Lexus was his last chase on ground softer than Yielding (officially last year's Gold Cup where he PU'd was on Soft but Coneygree won it in a time just 5 seconds slow of standard - soft or not, it was one of the strongest Gold Cups in living memory and HF was out of his league at level weights).
He's had just 2 runs this season, both hurdles over an obviously inadequate 16~18f on Soft/Hvy, running nicely enough both times.
Has crept into the GN field at #39 on the card with 10-05 - the lightest weight he's carried since his Irish National 3rd.
There are risks with this fella, as one would expect with a 100/1 shot.
He may not take to the fences or the occasion and he may be a poor traveller - both runs this side of the puddle (Gold Cup and a Listed 2.75m chase) at the end of last season being very ordinary. It did result in his British chase mark falling 8lbs however!! Hmm.
Peanuts have you checked the "racing to profit" site and tips for the National?That dreaded horse that may haunt us after today is one of his tips,I can't bring myself to say the name again but I have spoken to Josh this morning and he hasn't convinced me he is not mad by tipping THAT horse!!!
If he wins it on this ground, I will throw in the towel.
KRUZHLININ for me with SAINT ARE .. with e/w punts on Boston Bob, Pendra, (rich owners in form) & Hadrian's Approach as, like Johnson, Henderson has never won the race .. good luck to all .. IF mine all blow out ((:>)
I've got my three ante post wagers placed during the past year on Many Clouds,The Druids Nephew and Gallant Oscar,have gone through the race today and will be adding the following two horse Holywell and The Last Samuri. Good luck Peanuts great thread as usual and good luck to everyone's bets today.
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW @ 16/1 THE LAST SAMURI @ 12/1 MORNING ASSEMBLY @ 20/1 VICS CANVAS @ 66/1
All each way. Plus, I tipped a mate a free bet he didn't care about using so I have of course got MANY CLOUDS at 8/1 as a bonus (well, half of the proceeds if that comes in, anyway).
Wasn't overly keen on Saint Are or Holywell who were both mentioned to me.
Good luck everyone! Between us there's bound to be a winner somewhere...
Peanuts, sorry but haven't been keeping up with this thread this year.
Where am I putting my dough? Any chance of a recap?
Those I've backed (all e/w, 5 or 6 places) and current odds are:
MANY CLOUDS 9/1 SAINT ARE 18/1 VICS CANVAS 100/1 AACHEN 125/1
Am adding HOME FARM 100/1 e/w 6 places
Good luck
Don't add another one PM, I've done my bets and I'll kick myself if it comes in!!
Sorry Chief. A tad more rain that expected overnight tempted me to add a 5th. Both HOME FARM and AACHEN are marginal candidates on stats alone and both could hate the occasion, in which case I'll look a right mug. But, with the ground possibly softer than for any GN since 2006, they could run hugely better than their odds suggest. Adds a bit of spice. Fingers crossed.
Thanks very much @PeanutsMolloy and everyone who contributes to this thread each year. Drew Home Farm in the sweep at work and have gone with Peanuts choices here for "my" bets.
Had a bonus on Bet365 after one of their specials the other week gave me £100 bonus bet
John Hunt just reporting on ATR having walked the track, as he has every year for a number of years. Says it's as soft as he's known it - nothing like Red Marauder-like of course but will take some getting. Also said he ran into Denis O'Regan (Druids Nephew) who was very down about the overnight rain.
Thanks very much @PeanutsMolloy and everyone who contributes to this thread each year. Drew Home Farm in the sweep at work and have gone with Peanuts choices here for "my" bets.
Had a bonus on Bet365 after one of their specials the other week gave me £100 bonus bet
There's a lot of great contributors to this thread every year. Cheers to all of them and all who take an interest in it. I hope my selections aren't a total debacle. It is a revamped model this year and, with 3 rags, there's a higher than usual chance of it crashing and burning. Apologies in advance if so. In any event, let's hope it's a race to remember for the right reasons. All the best, whoever you've backed.
Thanks very much @PeanutsMolloy and everyone who contributes to this thread each year. Drew Home Farm in the sweep at work and have gone with Peanuts choices here for "my" bets.
Had a bonus on Bet365 after one of their specials the other week gave me £100 bonus bet
There's a lot of great contributors to this thread every year. Cheers to all of them and all who take an interest in it. I hope my selections aren't a total debacle. It is a revamped model this year and, with 3 rags, there's a higher than usual chance of it crashing and burning. Apologies in advance if so. In any event, let's hope it's a race to remember for the right reasons. All the best, whoever you've backed.
If one of the long shots hits and the others follow in closely, I think we as a combined thread (me being more of a spectator than a contributor) may be able to buy back our Club with our winnings!
Best of luck all. One thing we do know is someone we all know will hit the winner and be the next pro... :- )
Going report at 11am today. National course Soft(GS places) - Going stick 4.7! That is low (i.e. pretty Soft). It was 6.6 at noon last year (rode as Good) and 6.0 at the Off in 2013 (proper Good to Soft).
The Going stick reading on Thursday was 4.8 (i.e. it's as soft today as for the Foxhunters, which was run in the slowest time for 11 years).
If it's accurate stamina will be at a BIG premium.
Comments
However, aside from the 3 others on my slip, could there be another runner with staying form and a penchant for soft ground?
Dont't forget, the last Soft ground (RP's time-assessed) GN (2009) threw up one funky result, with two 100/1 shots making the front 5, including of course winner Mon Mome.
Well, there's RULE THE WORLD 50/1, runner-up in the Soft ground 2014 Irish Nat. But he remains a maiden over fences and, while he clearly handles testing ground, his breeding casts significant doubt that he would see out the GN trip on such ground. Technically a second season novice, the GN stats for novices, regardless of age, is atrocious.
Enter fellow Irish-trained HOME FARM 100/1 6 places BetVic.
Why? Two reasons:
1. He's bred to stay and relish Soft ground.
He's from the family of Jodami, heavy-ground Irish Hennessy winner and winner and runner-up of Cheltenham Gold Cups.
Like Goonyella he's by Presenting (sired GN winner Ballabriggs and many other top staying chasers at home on any ground).
His dam-sire is Good Thyne (sire of several high class staying chasers that loved soft ground, including Chives, twice made the front 3 in the Welsh National with big weights on heavy, and Samlee, who made the frame in heavy-ground Aintree and Welsh Nationals and was runner-up in the Scottish).
2. As a novice, was a (slightly unlucky, hampered 3 out) staying on 3rd (3L) in the Y/Soft ground 2013 Irish National. The following December, under a big weight, was 6.5L 5th in the Paddy Power chase on Soft, giving 10lbs to runner-up Cause Of Causes (his best two runs for trainer Arthur Moore).
Moving to the astute Henry de Bromhead's yard, he scored his highest chase RPR of 153 when taking a Listed 2.75m chase on Soft a year later before falling at the 1st in the 2014 Lexus the following month.
It is true that his record since then has been patchy but that Lexus was his last chase on ground softer than Yielding (officially last year's Gold Cup where he PU'd was on Soft but Coneygree won it in a time just 5 seconds slow of standard - soft or not, it was one of the strongest Gold Cups in living memory and HF was out of his league at level weights).
He's had just 2 runs this season, both hurdles over an obviously inadequate 16~18f on Soft/Hvy, running nicely enough both times.
Has crept into the GN field at #39 on the card with 10-05 - the lightest weight he's carried since his Irish National 3rd.
There are risks with this fella, as one would expect with a 100/1 shot.
He may not take to the fences or the occasion and he may be a poor traveller - both runs this side of the puddle (Gold Cup and a Listed 2.75m chase) at the end of last season being very ordinary. It did result in his British chase mark falling 8lbs however!! Hmm.
Where am I putting my dough? Any chance of a recap?
MANY CLOUDS 9/1
SAINT ARE 18/1
VICS CANVAS 100/1
AACHEN 125/1
Am adding HOME FARM 100/1 e/w 6 places
Good luck
Good luck Peanuts great thread as usual and good luck to everyone's bets today.
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW @ 16/1
THE LAST SAMURI @ 12/1
MORNING ASSEMBLY @ 20/1
VICS CANVAS @ 66/1
All each way. Plus, I tipped a mate a free bet he didn't care about using so I have of course got MANY CLOUDS at 8/1 as a bonus (well, half of the proceeds if that comes in, anyway).
Wasn't overly keen on Saint Are or Holywell who were both mentioned to me.
Good luck everyone! Between us there's bound to be a winner somewhere...
Both HOME FARM and AACHEN are marginal candidates on stats alone and both could hate the occasion, in which case I'll look a right mug.
But, with the ground possibly softer than for any GN since 2006, they could run hugely better than their odds suggest.
Adds a bit of spice.
Fingers crossed.
Gone for Ballynagour and Holywell myself but kind of expecting Many Clouds to win it.
All the best.
I was gonna follow you after you hit the jackpot the other day
Had a bonus on Bet365 after one of their specials the other week gave me £100 bonus bet
Marathon bet doin Many Clouds at 50/1 (max bet a quid but worth jumping on)
I hope my selections aren't a total debacle. It is a revamped model this year and, with 3 rags, there's a higher than usual chance of it crashing and burning.
Apologies in advance if so.
In any event, let's hope it's a race to remember for the right reasons.
All the best, whoever you've backed.
Best of luck all. One thing we do know is someone we all know will hit the winner and be the next pro... :- )
I mostly bet on football so happy to follow your National tips once again.
Good luck to one and all!
Good luck Peanuts and good luck everyone.
BTW, which one have you left off?.......................he's nailed on
National course Soft(GS places) - Going stick 4.7! That is low (i.e. pretty Soft). It was 6.6 at noon last year (rode as Good) and 6.0 at the Off in 2013 (proper Good to Soft).
The Going stick reading on Thursday was 4.8 (i.e. it's as soft today as for the Foxhunters, which was run in the slowest time for 11 years).
If it's accurate stamina will be at a BIG premium.
Mildmay Course - GS (5.5)
Hurdle - Soft(GS) (5.3)