It's Good to Soft today and showers are expected tomorrow and Saturday - so unlikely to change from Good to Soft but possibly Good to Soft - Soft in places.
It's Good to Soft today and showers are expected tomorrow and Saturday - so unlikely to change from Good to Soft but possibly Good to Soft - Soft in places.
Unlike a lot of places Aintree will get the going correct.
Some courses, when reporting the going state at the start of the meeting that the going is good to firm but, after the first it will be good to firm/good in places. By the time the meeting is over the going will be stated as having been heavy - when it was actually heavy from the outset.
Perhaps that is a "slight2 exaggeration but too many times the going is reported incorrectly because the course stewards don't like to change the reported going too much after the meeting has started (unless obviously it buckets it down) as it makes them look rather silly. That is why there can be a variance in going descriptions between the official going and that reported by Timeform.
It's Good to Soft today and showers are expected tomorrow and Saturday - so unlikely to change from Good to Soft but possibly Good to Soft - Soft in places.
Unlike a lot of places Aintree will get the going correct.
Some courses, when reporting the going state at the start of the meeting that the going is good to firm but, after the first it will be good to firm/good in places. By the time the meeting is over the going will be stated as having been heavy - when it was actually heavy from the outset.
Perhaps that is a "slight2 exaggeration but too many times the going is reported incorrectly because the course stewards don't like to change the reported going too much after the meeting has started (unless obviously it buckets it down) as it makes them look rather silly. That is why there can be a variance in going descriptions between the official going and that reported by Timeform.
Agree with you AA but it's a pretty low bar for Aintree to get over and you only have to compare the times set in the last 3 GNs, all run on Officially GS(Gd places):
2013: 8 secs slower than std 2014: 5.9 secs slower than std 2015: 7.2 secs FASTER than std
The time difference between 2013 and 2015 GNs, run on on identical going according to Aintree, is equivalent to Many Clouds finishing approx 76 lengths ahead of 2013 winner Auroras Encore, who would have been 14th last year!
Based on the times, the Racing Post reckoned the ground in 2013 was indeed GS (I agree), in 2014 was Good (I agree) and in 2015 was Good (I think quicker but no one would ever dare admit these days that there were even any GF places on the GN course).
I suspect it is proper GS at best now but the Foxhunters, with all carrying 12st every year, should be a good guide this afternoon.
Still early doors and not sure what kind of model I'll be using this year, if any, but at this stage I'm rather taken with Shotgun Paddy at 50/1 (120 Betfair)
With only 10-03 he is unlikely to get a run
He (all those with 10.03 in fact) will be unlucky not to get a run actually len90.
He is currently number 63 on the card and the entries allotted 10.03 are #60~63 on the card (priority among them will be determined by the actual OR at declarations).
For the last 6 GNs, the lowest on the card at framing of the weights to get a run on the big day were:
Still early doors and not sure what kind of model I'll be using this year, if any, but at this stage I'm rather taken with Shotgun Paddy at 50/1 (120 Betfair)
With only 10-03 he is unlikely to get a run
He (all those with 10.03 in fact) will be unlucky not to get a run actually len90.
He is currently number 63 on the card and the entries allotted 10.03 are #60~63 on the card (priority among them will be determined by the actual OR at declarations).
For the last 6 GNs, the lowest on the card at framing of the weights to get a run on the big day were:
Ok chaps. With Perfect Candidate 3rd Reserve and highly unlikely to line up, I have a gap to fill (again!) on my slip and, to do so, I've decided to go slightly "off piste".
With the softer ground, Goonyella is very tempting and, if it were any other track, one can easily see him storming past them at the finish. However, I can’t get out of my head his very ordinary jumping on favoured ground in the Becher chase and, at the price, I’ll pass on him. I find nothing to excite me (other than Goonyella and the 3 I’ve already backed) among the other runners that meet the key stamina test on GS; those being:
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (softer going unhelpful) LE REVE (prefers going right-handed) RULE THE WORLD (poor stats for novices) JUST A PAR (at the trip, would prefer good ground) HADRIANS APPROACH (prefers good ground, not great stats)
So, where to go?
Next best-rated by my model on stats is DOUBLE ROSS but, as a full brother to Mr Moonshine and with nothing to suggest otherwise in his stats, on this ground it’s very doubtful that he’ll see out the trip.
Enter 12y-o AACHEN - 100/1 (BetVic 6 places).
Completely written off by the market but rated 9th by my model and, with meaningful cut in the ground, could make a strong show at a massive price.
Trained by Venetia Williams, could he spring the biggest surprise since her 100/1 GN winner Mon Mome? Well, he doesn’t have Mon Mome’s proven record at 3.5m+ (in fact, he started life on the flat, as did Red Rum) and, of course, no two horses are the same but there’s a notably similar pattern to their pre-GN seasons.
Prior to Mon Mome's 2009 GN win, he’d won the Class 1 26f chase at Cheltenham's December meeting and followed up with a respectable run in the Welsh National before a couple of stinkers as Aintree preps; hence his 100/1 SP at Aintree.
Compare with AACHEN’s record this season:
• Won the same Class 1 26f chase on Heavy in December at Cheltenham • Raised 13lbs, he followed up with a 0.25L 2nd on heavy in a Class 2 3m chase at Sandown, just headed by the course-loving Soll (more of that form below). • He’s put in a couple of stinkers on less demanding surfaces since and, as a result, comes to Aintree thoroughly unfancied.
However, that run at Sandown is particularly interesting because of the horse that finished 4th. Golden Chieftain was getting 12lbs from Aachen but was 28L behind him on ground that suited both horses. GC’s having an excellent season and effectively franked that form since with 1FF, especially with the 2 Falls because both (off a mark 5lbs higher than at Sandown) were late on when palpably the clear winner, including at the last fence in the Midlands National.
For that reason, the fact that Aachen’s OR is also +5lbs from his Sandown run shouldn’t necessarily deter if he gets his preferred conditions underfoot.
He’s never been tried beyond 26f but his sequence of 112 in 3~3.25m chases on Soft or Heavy ground (including twice at testing tracks) in mid-winter, finishing well each time, suggests that a longer trip on GS/Soft could be up his street.
He’s never faced the GN fences (though stats favour GN debutants) and it has to be cautioned that he may simply not take to the occasion (he is known to down tools) but he has a sound jumping record (no F or UR in 17 chases and 13 hurdles).
As with Vics Canvas, if you fancy following my long-shot selections, it may well be the case that, as the money comes for the main players, the long-shots drift even further in price but 100/1 6 places is fine for me.
So, my final (yes FINAL) betting slip reads:
MANY CLOUDS 8/1 (e/w 5 places) VICS CANVAS 66/1 (e/w 6 places) SAINT ARE 25/1 (e/w 5 places) AACHEN 100/1 (e/w 6 places)
Whichever horses are carrying your shillings, good luck all. Let’s hope all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
Cheers CHG and Charltonparklane, though the proof of the pudding....etc Obviously a couple of solid chances but, hopefully, a couple with some buzz potential.
Thank you Peanuts excellent summary as always. He is owned by Gigginstown so it will be interesting to see if Cooper rides him .
Looks as if Cooper will ride Rule The World so I don't know who will ride SDC . Had a bit of 60's a few weeks ago so may lay some off depending on the going .
Thank you Peanuts excellent summary as always. He is owned by Gigginstown so it will be interesting to see if Cooper rides him .
Looks as if Cooper will ride Rule The World so I don't know who will ride SDC . Had a bit of 60's a few weeks ago so may lay some off depending on the going .
Cooper rides First Lieutenant and Walsh is on SDC.
At a bit of a loose end tonight and, while nodding along to Mrs Molloy telling me about her day, did a quick and dirty stat crunch on the Topham tomorrow. My pound will be riding on ASTRACAD 40/1 e/w 5 places bet365.. ......caution: low conviction
Red Rum was a great horse and a Grand National legend. No horse has won the race more than once since him.
And how many know that he came second in the two interim renewals between his second and third victories? Not just a great horse but the greatest Grand National horse.
GN course: Soft(GS places) Mildmay: GS(Soft places)
Should be dry today but rain (5mm) forecast for tonight which could impact going tomorrow. Tomorrow morning is due to be dry and bright but showers are possible later.
Looks like should remain more or less as now. Will time the Topham at 4.05 to see if it's dried out prior to the rain arriving.
Robert Waley-Cohen and his mates have shelled out £90,000 to buy Black Thunder - just 48 hours before the event. Mind you son and jockey, Sam, could probably have bought the horse with the loose change in his pocket given that he owns 15 dental practices!
Feel sorry for Gavin Sheehan who now has no ride in the race.
Comments
Some courses, when reporting the going state at the start of the meeting that the going is good to firm but, after the first it will be good to firm/good in places. By the time the meeting is over the going will be stated as having been heavy - when it was actually heavy from the outset.
Perhaps that is a "slight2 exaggeration but too many times the going is reported incorrectly because the course stewards don't like to change the reported going too much after the meeting has started (unless obviously it buckets it down) as it makes them look rather silly. That is why there can be a variance in going descriptions between the official going and that reported by Timeform.
2013: 8 secs slower than std
2014: 5.9 secs slower than std
2015: 7.2 secs FASTER than std
The time difference between 2013 and 2015 GNs, run on on identical going according to Aintree, is equivalent to Many Clouds finishing approx 76 lengths ahead of 2013 winner Auroras Encore, who would have been 14th last year!
Based on the times, the Racing Post reckoned the ground in 2013 was indeed GS (I agree), in 2014 was Good (I agree) and in 2015 was Good (I think quicker but no one would ever dare admit these days that there were even any GF places on the GN course).
I suspect it is proper GS at best now but the Foxhunters, with all carrying 12st every year, should be a good guide this afternoon.
Approx:
5m30s = Good
5m40s = GS
5m55s = Sft
Lies, damned lies and statistics
If so, suggests Soft(GS), in line with Official.
EDIT Confirmed 5m48s
With the softer ground, Goonyella is very tempting and, if it were any other track, one can easily see him storming past them at the finish. However, I can’t get out of my head his very ordinary jumping on favoured ground in the Becher chase and, at the price, I’ll pass on him. I find nothing to excite me (other than Goonyella and the 3 I’ve already backed) among the other runners that meet the key stamina test on GS; those being:
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (softer going unhelpful)
LE REVE (prefers going right-handed)
RULE THE WORLD (poor stats for novices)
JUST A PAR (at the trip, would prefer good ground)
HADRIANS APPROACH (prefers good ground, not great stats)
So, where to go?
Next best-rated by my model on stats is DOUBLE ROSS but, as a full brother to Mr Moonshine and with nothing to suggest otherwise in his stats, on this ground it’s very doubtful that he’ll see out the trip.
Enter 12y-o AACHEN - 100/1 (BetVic 6 places).
Completely written off by the market but rated 9th by my model and, with meaningful cut in the ground, could make a strong show at a massive price.
Trained by Venetia Williams, could he spring the biggest surprise since her 100/1 GN winner Mon Mome? Well, he doesn’t have Mon Mome’s proven record at 3.5m+ (in fact, he started life on the flat, as did Red Rum) and, of course, no two horses are the same but there’s a notably similar pattern to their pre-GN seasons.
Prior to Mon Mome's 2009 GN win, he’d won the Class 1 26f chase at Cheltenham's December meeting and followed up with a respectable run in the Welsh National before a couple of stinkers as Aintree preps; hence his 100/1 SP at Aintree.
Compare with AACHEN’s record this season:
• Won the same Class 1 26f chase on Heavy in December at Cheltenham
• Raised 13lbs, he followed up with a 0.25L 2nd on heavy in a Class 2 3m chase at Sandown, just headed by the course-loving Soll (more of that form below).
• He’s put in a couple of stinkers on less demanding surfaces since and, as a result, comes to Aintree thoroughly unfancied.
However, that run at Sandown is particularly interesting because of the horse that finished 4th. Golden Chieftain was getting 12lbs from Aachen but was 28L behind him on ground that suited both horses. GC’s having an excellent season and effectively franked that form since with 1FF, especially with the 2 Falls because both (off a mark 5lbs higher than at Sandown) were late on when palpably the clear winner, including at the last fence in the Midlands National.
For that reason, the fact that Aachen’s OR is also +5lbs from his Sandown run shouldn’t necessarily deter if he gets his preferred conditions underfoot.
He’s never been tried beyond 26f but his sequence of 112 in 3~3.25m chases on Soft or Heavy ground (including twice at testing tracks) in mid-winter, finishing well each time, suggests that a longer trip on GS/Soft could be up his street.
He’s never faced the GN fences (though stats favour GN debutants) and it has to be cautioned that he may simply not take to the occasion (he is known to down tools) but he has a sound jumping record (no F or UR in 17 chases and 13 hurdles).
As with Vics Canvas, if you fancy following my long-shot selections, it may well be the case that, as the money comes for the main players, the long-shots drift even further in price but 100/1 6 places is fine for me.
So, my final (yes FINAL) betting slip reads:
MANY CLOUDS 8/1 (e/w 5 places)
VICS CANVAS 66/1 (e/w 6 places)
SAINT ARE 25/1 (e/w 5 places)
AACHEN 100/1 (e/w 6 places)
Whichever horses are carrying your shillings, good luck all. Let’s hope all horses and jocks come back safe and sound.
Obviously a couple of solid chances but, hopefully, a couple with some buzz potential.
My pound will be riding on ASTRACAD 40/1 e/w 5 places bet365..
......caution: low conviction
I wonder how many non lifers get guided to this thread each year.
Believe len90 saw it mentioned on millwall forum few years ago and joined in.
I keep getting drawn towards morning assembly, so will be backing him aswell.
GN course: Soft(GS places)
Mildmay: GS(Soft places)
Should be dry today but rain (5mm) forecast for tonight which could impact going tomorrow.
Tomorrow morning is due to be dry and bright but showers are possible later.
Looks like should remain more or less as now. Will time the Topham at 4.05 to see if it's dried out prior to the rain arriving.
Feel sorry for Gavin Sheehan who now has no ride in the race.