Cause of Causes needs 10 to come out. Reckon he'd be lucky to get in!
its nrnb so if he doesnt run will likely back saint are or number 14 my bday haha, many clouds i think has a great chance but is just a little too short for the national.
You won't be suprised to know that I only agree about 1000% with Dr Newland.
The fact is that it appears as though the cut will come between OR143 and 145. By comparison, the cut has come between OR132 and 139 for each of the last 8 GNs.
For me the main concern is for the race, specifically the undermining of the link between the Aintree and other leading staying handicaps, as I argued on page 2 of this thread. The character of the great race is changing and IMO for the worse.
Couldn't agree more Peanuts. I'm disappointed that Alvarado will miss out.
To be brutally honest Chief, from a totally selfish perspective, if this pattern is to be repeated there's significantly reduced value to me to be added by my sort of model. Of the 10 GNs I've used it, its best result was in 2008 (1st, 2nd, 4th) but winner and runner-up wouldn't have got a run this year. That's true for 2 of the 4 winners and 3 runners-up that it's steered me to since 2006. Ditto some nice outsiders such as Hello Bud (50/1 - 5th 2010), Swing Bill (66/1 - 6th 2013), Tarquinius (100/1 - 8th 2013) and Portrait King (66/1 - F 3 out last year) that, aside from chipping in a nice return, gave us a real buzz in running. That's what it's really about for me, (hopefully) the buzz. Truthfully, I've got as much enjoyment over the years from seeing these unheralded old fellas or dour stayers put in a grand show, as from any that paid out. This year, 4 of its top 6 rated entries (including two 50/1 and a 66/1 shot), all with differing degrees of winning stat profile (one of the 50/1 shots being on a par with Many Clouds) and ORs of 142+ that would have seen all comfortably make the cut in any other year, will most likely not get the chance to line up. What would have been an interesting betting slip now has 3 runners which include the the returning winner (and worthy favourite) and last year's runner-up. It hardly needs a model to pick those 2 out. But who knows? Maybe it will be a 13 year old that's the history maker and it will be the buzz of the century.
A few titbits i found while looking for the winner
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado. Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961 The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160 only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
A few titbits i found while looking for the winner
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado. Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961 The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160 only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
Serves Moloney right if he doesn't get a ride in the GN for not trying to win the race - he's had enough chance to do so!
A few titbits i found while looking for the winner
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado. Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961 The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160 only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
Serves Moloney right if he doesn't get a ride in the GN for not trying to win the race - he's had enough chance to do so!
A few titbits i found while looking for the winner
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado. Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961 The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160 only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
Serves Moloney right if he doesn't get a ride in the GN for not trying to win the race - he's had enough chance to do so!
Let it go AA
I'm a great believer in Karma. And when Karma does happen I will always at the front of the queue to celebrate.
A few titbits i found while looking for the winner
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado. Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961 The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160 only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
Serves Moloney right if he doesn't get a ride in the GN for not trying to win the race - he's had enough chance to do so!
A few titbits i found while looking for the winner
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado. Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961 The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160 only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
"I know Paul Nicholls’ runner well having ridden him from 2011 to 2013............He’s a class act, jumps well, but the one question mark to me concerns his stamina." Ruby Walsh on Silviniaco Conti's GN credentials.
A few titbits i found while looking for the winner
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado. Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961 The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160 only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
"I know Paul Nicholls’ runner well having ridden him from 2011 to 2013............He’s a class act, jumps well, but the one question mark to me concerns his stamina." Ruby Walsh on Silviniaco Conti's GN credentials.
You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
Well he certainly doesn't stay up the hill at Cheltenham!
No hill at Aintree of course - and if he does stay and if he stays safe then for me he wins. Two huge 'ifs' there though. Would love it if he wins - I love the horse and have a signed original of him by Liz Armstrong in my study.
Interesting comments in Racing Post online from Goonyella's trainer regarding his ground preference:
QUOTE "What Aintree has been having is what I call apologetic rain," said Dreaper. "It will be perfect ground but English good to soft is hardly soft at all by our standards. Really we need the ground to be soft to heavy to increase our chance.
"On quicker ground at Ayr he was chasing the whole way. Aintree isn't the sort of place you'd want to be doing that. That's the horse we have, though."
'Guaranteed to get the trip'
That horse does have Aintree experience, but it was not positive, as having unseated Burke at the first fence of the 2014 Becher Chase he finished an outpaced last of nine finishers on his return in December.
"We'd certainly have preferred him to have gone better on his previous visits," admitted Dreaper.
"He did run well at Naas last time out though, and if he jumps well he has a good each-way chance. That chance will increase if the ground gets softer. You can also guarantee he'll get the trip." UNQUOTE
Peanuts does your model take in the wearing of headgear? Just been reading a piece and seeing the stats too its definitely a negative wearing them
Hmm, quite possibly the success per runners is below par (don't know) but I've never been sufficiently convinced of this to make it an element in my model killer.
Leaving out others that made the frame, I give you:
Garrison Savannah b - 5L 2nd 1990 Earth Summit b - won 1998 Whats Up Boys b - close 2nd 2002 Mckelvey p - close 2nd 2007 Comply Or Die b - won 2008 & 2nd 2009 Black Apalachi p - 5L 2nd 2010 Saint Are p - close 2nd 2015
You've got 3 runners-up that all missed out by less than 2L - you could say within a whisker of having 5 rather than just 2 winners with headgear in the last 18 years.
Bet365 doing a special on the National, refunding half the stake of any each way bets placed in the next few hours... I am a betting novice but assume that means you bet Many Clouds each way and only pay them the same amount as a bet to win essentially?
Peanuts you have just shown brilliantly how stats can look so different depending on presentation as this is how I was presented with the headgear stats.The last 45 horses to run in the National wearing headgear have produced no winners and only two place
All 40 stood their ground no run for Bishops Road and conditions going his way.
And the two most powerful stables have 25% of the final 40 between them. Here's hoping it's one of the smaller stables have their day in the limelight.
Cant understand why owners run horses that have failed to complete in two previous nationals.
If they have more than one horse in the race they probably like the idea of a scatter gun approach. Plus it stops other potential winners from getting in.
If it's the owners only entry then it's probably just that they enjoy the day out. And of course every owner has a dream if even if it is only that.
Cant understand why owners run horses that have failed to complete in two previous nationals.
If I owned a horse that 'qualified' to run in the GN then I would want it to run. To have a runner in the race (or for any race at Cheltenham) is a jump race horse owner's dream irrespective of its chances of winning.
Edit - sorry just realised I've pretty much repeated what AA said.
Cant understand why owners run horses that have failed to complete in two previous nationals.
If I owned a horse that 'qualified' to run in the GN then I would want it to run. To have a runner in the race (or for any race at Cheltenham) is a jump race horse owner's dream irrespective of its chances of winning.
Edit - sorry just realised I've pretty much repeated what AA said.
It's Good to Soft today and showers are expected tomorrow and Saturday - so unlikely to change from Good to Soft but possibly Good to Soft - Soft in places.
Comments
The fact is that it appears as though the cut will come between OR143 and 145.
By comparison, the cut has come between OR132 and 139 for each of the last 8 GNs.
For me the main concern is for the race, specifically the undermining of the link between the Aintree and other leading staying handicaps, as I argued on page 2 of this thread. The character of the great race is changing and IMO for the worse.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-3523211/Grand-National-review-entry-criteria-high-quality-horses-including-2014-winner-Pineau-look-set-miss-cut.html
Of the 10 GNs I've used it, its best result was in 2008 (1st, 2nd, 4th) but winner and runner-up wouldn't have got a run this year. That's true for 2 of the 4 winners and 3 runners-up that it's steered me to since 2006. Ditto some nice outsiders such as Hello Bud (50/1 - 5th 2010), Swing Bill (66/1 - 6th 2013), Tarquinius (100/1 - 8th 2013) and Portrait King (66/1 - F 3 out last year) that, aside from chipping in a nice return, gave us a real buzz in running.
That's what it's really about for me, (hopefully) the buzz. Truthfully, I've got as much enjoyment over the years from seeing these unheralded old fellas or dour stayers put in a grand show, as from any that paid out.
This year, 4 of its top 6 rated entries (including two 50/1 and a 66/1 shot), all with differing degrees of winning stat profile (one of the 50/1 shots being on a par with Many Clouds) and ORs of 142+ that would have seen all comfortably make the cut in any other year, will most likely not get the chance to line up.
What would have been an interesting betting slip now has 3 runners which include the the returning winner (and worthy favourite) and last year's runner-up. It hardly needs a model to pick those 2 out.
But who knows? Maybe it will be a 13 year old that's the history maker and it will be the buzz of the century.
Paul Moloney has been placed in the last seven Nationals. He was expected to ride Alvarado.
Paul Nicholls insists Silviniaco Conti will stay
There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961
The last ten winners were rated between 136 and 160
only one winner in the last 33 runnings had not run in the last 50 days
All of the last ten winners of the Grand National had previously won or been placed in a chase with at least 15 runners
Bishops Road 10-03
Knock House 10-03
Perfect Candidate 10-02
Maggio 10-02
Present View 10-02
Pineau De Re 10-02
Highland Lodge 10-02
Alvarado 10-02
Cause Of Causes 10-01
Royale Knight 10-01
Double Seven 10-01
Mountainous 10-01
Midnight Prayer 10-01
Bally Beaufort 10-01
Those in the GN top 40 also kept in the Topham: Sir Des Champs & Ballycasey
Come on Venetia, it's not wet enough for Katenko or Aachen - take them out!
Just give me 3....PLEASE!!!!!!
You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
No hill at Aintree of course - and if he does stay and if he stays safe then for me he wins. Two huge 'ifs' there though. Would love it if he wins - I love the horse and have a signed original of him by Liz Armstrong in my study.
QUOTE
"What Aintree has been having is what I call apologetic rain," said Dreaper. "It will be perfect ground but English good to soft is hardly soft at all by our standards. Really we need the ground to be soft to heavy to increase our chance.
"On quicker ground at Ayr he was chasing the whole way. Aintree isn't the sort of place you'd want to be doing that. That's the horse we have, though."
'Guaranteed to get the trip'
That horse does have Aintree experience, but it was not positive, as having unseated Burke at the first fence of the 2014 Becher Chase he finished an outpaced last of nine finishers on his return in December.
"We'd certainly have preferred him to have gone better on his previous visits," admitted Dreaper.
"He did run well at Naas last time out though, and if he jumps well he has a good each-way chance. That chance will increase if the ground gets softer. You can also guarantee he'll get the trip."
UNQUOTE
Good point about his run in the Scottish Nat.
Leaving out others that made the frame, I give you:
Garrison Savannah b - 5L 2nd 1990
Earth Summit b - won 1998
Whats Up Boys b - close 2nd 2002
Mckelvey p - close 2nd 2007
Comply Or Die b - won 2008 & 2nd 2009
Black Apalachi p - 5L 2nd 2010
Saint Are p - close 2nd 2015
You've got 3 runners-up that all missed out by less than 2L - you could say within a whisker of having 5 rather than just 2 winners with headgear in the last 18 years.
If it's the owners only entry then it's probably just that they enjoy the day out. And of course every owner has a dream if even if it is only that.
Edit - sorry just realised I've pretty much repeated what AA said.