The furthest trip SC's run is in the Gold Cup, 3 times. Best performance in it on helpful Good ground in 2014 (commonly acknowledged to be a poor renewal) saw him wander off a straight line and overhauled up the hill, eliciting an RPR of 167 and comment by RP analyst that "3m on a flat track represents his ideal conditions". I agree. His best form and RPR (top 177) has come at 21~24f, the furthest at relatvely undemanding tracks such as Kempton and Haydock. Aintree's a flat track but if he couldn't assert at 3m+ 2.5 furlongs, why should he do so at 3m + 10.5 furlongs?
PS Of the "class 3 milers" in the race, as picked out by starinnaddick earlier, IMO Sir Des Champs is the most appealing with 10.13 and at 40/1. With the prospect of a sound surface, which should suit, the return-from-injury doubt appears over-discounted in those odds.
Peanuts I know my flat horses but your knowledge and in depth analysis of jumps for the GN is second to none and I truly take my hat off to you its mesmerising.
I see portrait King is running in the Irish national tomorrow am I right in thinking that was one of peanuts selections for the aintree national last year
I see portrait King is running in the Irish national tomorrow am I right in thinking that was one of peanuts selections for the aintree national last year
You are dead right dmjn and I'm not the only one on here that has a big soft spot for the old fella. Was going well in the GN but looking a bit one-paced when tipping up 3 out but was particularly unlucky in the Becher chase last Dec. Coming with a big run when jumping into the back of a rival and falling 2 out. Stats say he's too old and has too many miles on the clock for tomorrow but if I don't have the winner on my ticket I sure as hell hope it's old PK that takes the prize. He deserves a big one.
Peanuts I know my flat horses but your knowledge and in depth analysis of jumps for the GN is second to none and I truly take my hat off to you its mesmerising.
You're way too kind smiffy. You and killer do it day in and day out but I'm just a once (or maybe 5 times, with the big staying handicaps) a year geezer. Anyway, see if you still think so when Siviniaco Conti romps home.
Having a nibble on anything in the Irish GN killer? We were both sweet on Cause Of Causes for Aintree but being top-weight with his penalty today doesn't bode well. Last 10 renewals, the top-weight's performance reads: PPPFFP8P8P
In the the last 19 renewals no horse carrying 11st 4lbs or more has won and no horse rated 142 plus has won either so that rules out Cause Of Causes on both them stats Peanuts so no I will be leaving him well alone.To be honest I now have a shortlist of seven for the Irish National!!! Wrath Of Titans 28/1 Kilford. 28/1 Killer Crow. 14/1 Ballyadam Approach. 50/1 Venetian De Mai. 10/1 Another Hero. 14/1 Jacob 40/1 Surely I don't back them all even though just the winner will give me a profit.......I will have another look after going through the rest of the day's racing. Peanuts just thought are we going off thread and getting into trouble now..........
What the hell. Good record of novices in the Irish GN makes it really tricky getting from the list of Possible to the final picks. Would never rule out a horse because it's fav but it's a problem if your "Stat-Possibles" include the 2 at the head of the market, as mine did. Bound to have picked the wrong one!
One more stat for the Irish National, the last 34 of 36 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142. That would take out Bearly Legal and Wrath of Titans, Peanuts. I've gone for an exacta comprising of BONNY KATE, VENITIEN DE MAI,CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE, UNIC DE BERSY & JAROB. Maybe an Elliott outsider to win?!
One more stat for the Irish National, the last 34 of 36 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142. That would take out Bearly Legal and Wrath of Titans, Peanuts. I've gone for an exacta comprising of BONNY KATE, VENITIEN DE MAI,CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE, UNIC DE BERSY & JAROB. Maybe an Elliott outsider to win?!
Got to be a bit careful with bottom of that range Chief. OR's below 128 aren't always represented.
One more stat for the Irish National, the last 34 of 36 places were filled by horses rated 128 to 142. That would take out Bearly Legal and Wrath of Titans, Peanuts. I've gone for an exacta comprising of BONNY KATE, VENITIEN DE MAI,CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE, UNIC DE BERSY & JAROB. Maybe an Elliott outsider to win?!
Actually Chief, I'd rather use best chase RPRs achieved rather than current ORs for stat purposes as, logically, it could help sort the wheat from the chaff among the lightly-weighted runners.
Interesting little statlet from this trend-analysis of the Irish GN: 9 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
If you modified it to chase RPR134+ ever, all 15 of last 15 winners would comply. Wrath of Titans complies with both versions, scoring a RPR134 in a Grade 1 nov chase in December behind No More Heroes.
Jonjo tells RP after a racecourse gallop for Shutthefrontdoor today: "He's got to get the trip and that's a worry to me. I didn't think he got it last year but he loved the track and jumped great and if he does the same again he'll put up a bold show."
Results for my "Hard Stats": 1st - Max no of chases: 15 or less........CRAP 2nd & 3rd - Younger than 11: ......CRAP Sorry about that Chaps...........back to the drawing board.
Comments
I agree.
His best form and RPR (top 177) has come at 21~24f, the furthest at relatvely undemanding tracks such as Kempton and Haydock.
Aintree's a flat track but if he couldn't assert at 3m+ 2.5 furlongs, why should he do so at 3m + 10.5 furlongs?
PS Of the "class 3 milers" in the race, as picked out by starinnaddick earlier, IMO Sir Des Champs is the most appealing with 10.13 and at 40/1. With the prospect of a sound surface, which should suit, the return-from-injury doubt appears over-discounted in those odds.
Was going well in the GN but looking a bit one-paced when tipping up 3 out but was particularly unlucky in the Becher chase last Dec. Coming with a big run when jumping into the back of a rival and falling 2 out.
Stats say he's too old and has too many miles on the clock for tomorrow but if I don't have the winner on my ticket I sure as hell hope it's old PK that takes the prize. He deserves a big one.
You and killer do it day in and day out but I'm just a once (or maybe 5 times, with the big staying handicaps) a year geezer.
Anyway, see if you still think so when Siviniaco Conti romps home.
We were both sweet on Cause Of Causes for Aintree but being top-weight with his penalty today doesn't bode well.
Last 10 renewals, the top-weight's performance reads:
PPPFFP8P8P
Wrath Of Titans 28/1
Kilford. 28/1
Killer Crow. 14/1
Ballyadam Approach. 50/1
Venetian De Mai. 10/1
Another Hero. 14/1
Jacob 40/1
Surely I don't back them all even though just the winner will give me a profit.......I will have another look after going through the rest of the day's racing.
Peanuts just thought are we going off thread and getting into trouble now..........
What the hell. Good record of novices in the Irish GN makes it really tricky getting from the list of Possible to the final picks.
Would never rule out a horse because it's fav but it's a problem if your "Stat-Possibles" include the 2 at the head of the market, as mine did.
Bound to have picked the wrong one!
Good luck killer.
Good luck Peanuts
I suspect a cheeky one by Elliott and/or JP to keep weights down for others.
x2 with 127 2015
None 2014
None 2013
None 2012
None 2011
TBH, I'm very happy to have Wrath Of Titans on my slip.
Good luck AddicktedOne.
Interesting little statlet from this trend-analysis of the Irish GN: 9 of 10 winners posted a chase RPR of 133+ that season
http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/irish-grand-national-trends-2016-1458869597
If you modified it to chase RPR134+ ever, all 15 of last 15 winners would comply. Wrath of Titans complies with both versions, scoring a RPR134 in a Grade 1 nov chase in December behind No More Heroes.
buttbet!1st - Max no of chases: 15 or less........CRAP
2nd & 3rd - Younger than 11: ......CRAP
Sorry about that Chaps...........back to the drawing board.