Just added The Druids Nephew 25/1 to my ante post bets Already on Many Clouds 18/1 (price taken last year) and Gallant Oscar 50/1 Really not sure about Hollywell? Keep thinking yes then no?!
Peanuts: do I assume that my early bet on Mountainous is lost then as I cannot see his name on the provisional list of runners?
Wouldn't worry too much about his PU in the Haydock GN Trial yesterday (at least from a form perspective) meldrew. The worst aspect of it for Mountainous is that it doesn't help his chances of making the cut (with 6 others allotted 10.01) but, with the single exception of Neptune Collonges in 2012 (close 2nd in the GNT), Haydock's GN Trial (typically run on ground that could hardly be more different to Aintree's) has an abysmal correlation to GN success. Indeed, Earth Summit (1998) and Mon Mome (2009) both ran stinkers in the GNT prior to GN victory - ironically both soft ground GNs.
Conversely, folks, don't get overly excited about Bishops Road simply because he romped home.
This is the record in the succeeding GN of previous GNT winners since the turn of the millenium:
2000 The Last Fling – 7th (28L) 2003 Shotgun Willy – PU 2004 Jurancon II – F 2005 Forest Gunner – 5th (27L) 2009 Rambling Minster – PU 2011 Silver By Nature – 12th (93L) 2012 Giles Cross – PU
In fact, the last 15 GNT winners have the following record in their next (same season) run: PUPF52F2P00PPP0
Killer, I said I would elaborate on why I agree with you that the changes in the GN have made it a lesser race. I could write a tome on the reasons why but as briefly as I can make it:
1. I share Timeform’s view that changes to the fences and the race appear to have made it the “Plastic Grand National” era but, in truth, those changes were made imperative by the multiple fatalities in 2011~2012. It is the cause of those fatalities that was the culprit and that cause, in my view, was principally the significantly increased speed of the race; particularly evident in 2010~2012 when 3 of the 6 fastest ever times were clocked but bearing little relationship to the Official Going of Good(Good-to-Soft). Though, mercifully, no fatalities have occurred in the GN since, the fact that the 2015 GN clocked the 4th fastest ever pace (allowing for the reduced trip) on ground officially described as Good-to-Soft (Good places) is evidence itself of the changed character of the race. In my view (and it may well be a minority view), one of the causes of the increased speed at which the GN has been run in recent years has been the egregious levels of prize money now offered; and that is changing the race in another significant way - crowding out the sort of horses that, in my view, made the GN what it was.
2. The handicapper lauds the ever rising "quality" of the entries by reference to the Official Ratings. Is that such a great thing? I believe not, as regards preserving the character of the race. How simplistic (and stupid) is it to view ORs as the measure of quality of a GN field? There is no distinction in ORs for distance. So, a champion 2 miler will always get priority to run in the GN over lower rated horses, regardless of their credentials in staying chases. For me, as the premier staying handicap chase, an important characteristic of the GN is that it’s a contest that should feature horses that have form in the other great 3.5m+ handicaps of the NH season – viz. the Welsh, Irish and Scottish Nationals – and/or over the GN course, just as much as those that are of Grade 1 calibre. Grade 1 and other horses with high ORs are welcome GN runners in modest numbers but the pumping up of GN prize money, the compression of the handicap and now the less stiff examination of jumping and stamina has encouraged them now to enter in numbers that threaten to crowd out the best staying handicappers and to destroy the link between GN and other major Nationals. By way of illustration, as noted in an earlier post, over the last 6 GNs the horses ranked 69~79th in the weights when they were framed were the last to make the cut - the average being 73rd. The 73rd in this year's entries is Double Seven (3rd in the GN 2 years ago) with an OR of 142. If that is the cut-off, it would mean:
• The last (and double) Welsh National winner (Mountainous) would be lucky to get a run this year despite a 10lb rise in OR since Chepstow.
• The winner and close runner-up of the 2014 WN, Emperor's Choice (again despite a 10lb OR rise since) and Benvolio, would both definitely miss out.
• With an OR of at least 142 needed to get a run, it would mean that NONE of the following former GN winners would have got a run: Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Bindaree (2002), Monty's Pass (2003), Amberleigh House (2004), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007), Comply Or Die (2008) and Auroras Encore (2013)
• Indeed, none of at least the first 3 home in 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2007 would have made the cut.
One might say “so what”? If these runners never got the chance – other names would have been the heroes.
OK, but we are talking about horses with the following credentials:
• Bobbyjo – Irish National winner • Papillon – 0.5L 2nd in Irish National as top-weight • Bindaree – 3rd (8L) Welsh National, 5th in Hennessy and placed over the GN fences • Amberleigh House – Winner and twice runner-up of Becher Chase & 3rd in GN (though, again, with OR136, wouldn’t have got a run) • Numbersixvalverde – Irish National winner • Silver Birch – Welsh National winner, Becher Chase winner • Comply Or Die – Eider Chase winner as top-weight, 4th (6L behind Trabolgan)) in Hennessy • Auroras Encore – close 2nd Scottish National
Aside from these GN winners, the following GN near-things would never had got a chance at GN glory:
o Just So (22lbs out of handicap but an agonising 1.25L 2nd to Miinnehoma 1994) – the career high for a wonderfully game stayer, regularly making the frame over marathon trips o Encore Un Peu (9lbs o/h but 1.25L 2nd to “well-in” Rough Quest 1996 in a thrilling finish) o Samlee (3rd 1998, 9lbs o/h) – Becher chase winner, 3rd Welsh Nat, 2nd Scottish Nat
IMO, it is great staying handicappers that have made the GN the unique race that it is (or was). Grade 1 horses have their own opportunities for glory. While it enhances the race that some chance their arm in the biggest handicap of all (particularly those nearing the autumn of their careers when they want more a test of stamina), with prize money, compression of the weights and course changes now encouraging more and more to enter, we are faced with the increasing prospect of some fine staying chasers never getting a chance of GN glory and the creation of a gulf between other premier Nationals and the Aintree version. That is a great shame.
Its seems such a silly reply to your amazing view above Peanuts and also a reply that doesnt do your views justice but you are spot on and i totally agree and couldnt add to it.
Good memory Lincs. He was my strongest tip for the WN but he's got 9-04 for the GN. He could f%%kin' lap 'em this afternoon before winning it but he still won't make the cut Though, at first blush I do like Shotgun Paddy with only 10-03 for the Big One, who carries topweight in the Eider today. His jumping let him down in last year's Eider but he looks in better form this season. Haven't run my stripped back GN model yet (and probably won't until after the Festival) but Paddy's owners seem definite that they want to see it soft at Aintree to let him take his chance.
Shotgun Paddy has a terrific jockey today which indicates that 'connections' really fancy him .. but the race looks to be a minefield for punters .. I have had £1 e/w on Woodford C and the same on Wyck Hill, the latter only because my cousins used to live at the very top of that Cotswold landmark ((:>)
8/1 looks a bit short for me for Paddy given how open a race it is today but he could certainly do the biz. Russe Blanc would have been a long shot on my WN ticket but missed the cut by one and then won the Betfred Classic (aka Warwick national) really well. Big hike in OR today but may be up to the task but there's not many you can rule out. Should be a cracker. If it is proper soft, I wouldn't rule out 13 y-o Glenquest (close 3rd in the 2014 WN) nicking a place at 40/1 - hasn't been asked to race beyond 3m over fences since then. I am a bit of a sucker for long shots but might have a nibble seeing as how it's 4 places (1st time tongue tie I now see - I'm on!)
Houblon Des Obeaux ... will he get the trip whilst carrying all that weight ? .. done him e/w NRNB at 40/1
Sad to say HdO's been scratched Lincs. He had winner's quality stats aswell.
Also scratched: Wounded Warrior Thunder And Roses Open Hearted Plus 9 others that were never likely to make the cut, including: Ziga Boy Night In Milan Seabass Paint The Clouds
In last 6 years, average lowest on the card at this stage to make the cut for the Big Day was #65 (#69 lowest). #65 today is the last of those on 10-02. Those missing out would include: Double Seven (3rd 2 years ago), Royale Knight (6th last year), Benbens (1L 3rd in the 2015 Scottish National) Mountainous (double Welsh National winner) and Emperor's Choice (2014 WN winner). Nevermind, there's a quality bunch of highly-rated 3 milers likely to run in their place
Houblon Des Obeaux ... will he get the trip whilst carrying all that weight ? .. done him e/w NRNB at 40/1
Sad to say HdO's been scratched Lincs. He had winner's quality stats aswell.
Also scratched: Wounded Warrior Thunder And Roses Open Hearted Plus 9 others that were never likely to make the cut, including: Ziga Boy Night In Milan Seabass Paint The Clouds
In last 6 years, average lowest on the card at this stage to make the cut for the Big Day was #65 (#69 lowest). #65 today is the last of those on 10-02. Those missing out would include: Double Seven (3rd 2 years ago), Royale Knight (6th last year), Benbens (1L 3rd in the 2015 Scottish National) Mountainous (double Welsh National winner) and Emperor's Choice (2014 WN winner). Nevermind, there's a quality bunch of highly-rated 3 milers likely to run in their place
damn! .. had him in e/w double with Many Clouds, the latter for the Cheltenham G C .. bang goes the riverside flat in Chelsea ((:<) ((:>) .. thanks for the info Peanuts, I haven't read much news for a couple of days.
Last race tomorrow is the Kim Muir chase - won by Ballabriggs with 11.12 the season before he won the 2011 GN and by Sunnyhillboy with 11.11 the month before he should have won the 2012 GN. Two runners tomorrow are flashing brightly on my 2016 GN radar screen - MIDNIGHT PRAYER (40/1 for the GN, 25/1 tomorrow) already has winning GN stats and just has to avoid disaster to confirm them. Drying ground will suit but, unfortunately, allotted 10.01, he is at risk of being one of those proven stayers denied a run at Aintree because of the "high quality" of the entries. Great. PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1 GN, 20/1 tomorrow) - progressive and a good record at Cheltenham but would prefer some more juice in the ground. Safe passage would confirm him as having Strong Place potential with 10.02 for the GN; a win or near miss would put his stats into Winner's territory.
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE run SHOTGUN PADDY at Aintree and not Uttoxeter Emma.
She ignored your advice Peanuts .
I could be wrong but I haven't seen her say yet he definitely won't go to Aintree. Still 3 weeks to go. Mon Mome won the GN after running (badly) in the Midlands National 3 weeks earlier in 2009. Rough Quest won it in 1996 just 16 days after being 4L 2nd in the Gold Cup. Papillon (2000) and Montys Pass (2003) won it 20 days after their last preps. In fact, more than 50% of winners since 1988 have won it less than 4 weeks after their final prep. But, as she's been looking for softer going, presumably it's looking doubtful. All I can say is that it was only 2 years ago that he was close 2nd in the 4m novice chase at the Festival on quickish ground. People said Monbeg Dude wouldn't handle the drying ground last year but was only 8L 3rd behind Many Clouds and was unlucky in running. With the modified fences, regardless of the ground, I can't see Shotgun Paddy getting a better chance than now with a featherweight 10-03. But hey-ho.
Have to confess I've backed him e/w this afternoon, despite some less exposed sorts in oppo, as it would piss me off no end if he won and she didn't take him to Aintree. Taken the NRNB from Bet365 for the GN at 50s as well. Probably all for nought.
Comments
Already on Many Clouds 18/1 (price taken last year) and Gallant Oscar 50/1
Really not sure about Hollywell? Keep thinking yes then no?!
The worst aspect of it for Mountainous is that it doesn't help his chances of making the cut (with 6 others allotted 10.01) but, with the single exception of Neptune Collonges in 2012 (close 2nd in the GNT), Haydock's GN Trial (typically run on ground that could hardly be more different to Aintree's) has an abysmal correlation to GN success. Indeed, Earth Summit (1998) and Mon Mome (2009) both ran stinkers in the GNT prior to GN victory - ironically both soft ground GNs.
Conversely, folks, don't get overly excited about Bishops Road simply because he romped home.
This is the record in the succeeding GN of previous GNT winners since the turn of the millenium:
2000 The Last Fling – 7th (28L)
2003 Shotgun Willy – PU
2004 Jurancon II – F
2005 Forest Gunner – 5th (27L)
2009 Rambling Minster – PU
2011 Silver By Nature – 12th (93L)
2012 Giles Cross – PU
In fact, the last 15 GNT winners have the following record in their next (same season) run: PUPF52F2P00PPP0
1. I share Timeform’s view that changes to the fences and the race appear to have made it the “Plastic Grand National” era but, in truth, those changes were made imperative by the multiple fatalities in 2011~2012.
It is the cause of those fatalities that was the culprit and that cause, in my view, was principally the significantly increased speed of the race; particularly evident in 2010~2012 when 3 of the 6 fastest ever times were clocked but bearing little relationship to the Official Going of Good(Good-to-Soft).
Though, mercifully, no fatalities have occurred in the GN since, the fact that the 2015 GN clocked the 4th fastest ever pace (allowing for the reduced trip) on ground officially described as Good-to-Soft (Good places) is evidence itself of the changed character of the race.
In my view (and it may well be a minority view), one of the causes of the increased speed at which the GN has been run in recent years has been the egregious levels of prize money now offered; and that is changing the race in another significant way - crowding out the sort of horses that, in my view, made the GN what it was.
2. The handicapper lauds the ever rising "quality" of the entries by reference to the Official Ratings. Is that such a great thing? I believe not, as regards preserving the character of the race.
How simplistic (and stupid) is it to view ORs as the measure of quality of a GN field? There is no distinction in ORs for distance. So, a champion 2 miler will always get priority to run in the GN over lower rated horses, regardless of their credentials in staying chases.
For me, as the premier staying handicap chase, an important characteristic of the GN is that it’s a contest that should feature horses that have form in the other great 3.5m+ handicaps of the NH season – viz. the Welsh, Irish and Scottish Nationals – and/or over the GN course, just as much as those that are of Grade 1 calibre. Grade 1 and other horses with high ORs are welcome GN runners in modest numbers but the pumping up of GN prize money, the compression of the handicap and now the less stiff examination of jumping and stamina has encouraged them now to enter in numbers that threaten to crowd out the best staying handicappers and to destroy the link between GN and other major Nationals.
By way of illustration, as noted in an earlier post, over the last 6 GNs the horses ranked 69~79th in the weights when they were framed were the last to make the cut - the average being 73rd.
The 73rd in this year's entries is Double Seven (3rd in the GN 2 years ago) with an OR of 142. If that is the cut-off, it would mean:
• The last (and double) Welsh National winner (Mountainous) would be lucky to get a run this year despite a 10lb rise in OR since Chepstow.
• The winner and close runner-up of the 2014 WN, Emperor's Choice (again despite a 10lb OR rise since) and Benvolio, would both definitely miss out.
• With an OR of at least 142 needed to get a run, it would mean that NONE of the following former GN winners would have got a run:
Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Bindaree (2002), Monty's Pass (2003), Amberleigh House (2004), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007), Comply Or Die (2008) and Auroras Encore (2013)
• Indeed, none of at least the first 3 home in 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2007 would have made the cut.
One might say “so what”? If these runners never got the chance – other names would have been the heroes.
OK, but we are talking about horses with the following credentials:
• Bobbyjo – Irish National winner
• Papillon – 0.5L 2nd in Irish National as top-weight
• Bindaree – 3rd (8L) Welsh National, 5th in Hennessy and placed over the GN fences
• Amberleigh House – Winner and twice runner-up of Becher Chase & 3rd in GN (though, again, with OR136, wouldn’t have got a run)
• Numbersixvalverde – Irish National winner
• Silver Birch – Welsh National winner, Becher Chase winner
• Comply Or Die – Eider Chase winner as top-weight, 4th (6L behind Trabolgan)) in Hennessy
• Auroras Encore – close 2nd Scottish National
Aside from these GN winners, the following GN near-things would never had got a chance at GN glory:
o Just So (22lbs out of handicap but an agonising 1.25L 2nd to Miinnehoma 1994) – the career high for a wonderfully game stayer, regularly making the frame over marathon trips
o Encore Un Peu (9lbs o/h but 1.25L 2nd to “well-in” Rough Quest 1996 in a thrilling finish)
o Samlee (3rd 1998, 9lbs o/h) – Becher chase winner, 3rd Welsh Nat, 2nd Scottish Nat
IMO, it is great staying handicappers that have made the GN the unique race that it is (or was). Grade 1 horses have their own opportunities for glory. While it enhances the race that some chance their arm in the biggest handicap of all (particularly those nearing the autumn of their careers when they want more a test of stamina), with prize money, compression of the weights and course changes now encouraging more and more to enter, we are faced with the increasing prospect of some fine staying chasers never getting a chance of GN glory and the creation of a gulf between other premier Nationals and the Aintree version. That is a great shame.
Cheers smiffy. You're too kind.
Actually, I've just got a spreadsheet the size of a buick.
He was my strongest tip for the WN but he's got 9-04 for the GN.
He could f%%kin' lap 'em this afternoon before winning it but he still won't make the cut
Though, at first blush I do like Shotgun Paddy with only 10-03 for the Big One, who carries topweight in the Eider today. His jumping let him down in last year's Eider but he looks in better form this season.
Haven't run my stripped back GN model yet (and probably won't until after the Festival) but Paddy's owners seem definite that they want to see it soft at Aintree to let him take his chance.
Russe Blanc would have been a long shot on my WN ticket but missed the cut by one and then won the Betfred Classic (aka Warwick national) really well. Big hike in OR today but may be up to the task but there's not many you can rule out. Should be a cracker.
If it is proper soft, I wouldn't rule out 13 y-o Glenquest (close 3rd in the 2014 WN) nicking a place at 40/1 - hasn't been asked to race beyond 3m over fences since then. I am a bit of a sucker for long shots but might have a nibble seeing as how it's 4 places (1st time tongue tie I now see - I'm on!)
Also scratched:
Wounded Warrior
Thunder And Roses
Open Hearted
Plus 9 others that were never likely to make the cut, including:
Ziga Boy
Night In Milan
Seabass
Paint The Clouds
In last 6 years, average lowest on the card at this stage to make the cut for the Big Day was #65 (#69 lowest).
#65 today is the last of those on 10-02.
Those missing out would include: Double Seven (3rd 2 years ago), Royale Knight (6th last year), Benbens (1L 3rd in the 2015 Scottish National) Mountainous (double Welsh National winner) and Emperor's Choice (2014 WN winner).
Nevermind, there's a quality bunch of highly-rated 3 milers likely to run in their place
At the moment unlikely to get in .
Two runners tomorrow are flashing brightly on my 2016 GN radar screen - MIDNIGHT PRAYER (40/1 for the GN, 25/1 tomorrow) already has winning GN stats and just has to avoid disaster to confirm them. Drying ground will suit but, unfortunately, allotted 10.01, he is at risk of being one of those proven stayers denied a run at Aintree because of the "high quality" of the entries. Great.
PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1 GN, 20/1 tomorrow) - progressive and a good record at Cheltenham but would prefer some more juice in the ground. Safe passage would confirm him as having Strong Place potential with 10.02 for the GN; a win or near miss would put his stats into Winner's territory.
Still 3 weeks to go. Mon Mome won the GN after running (badly) in the Midlands National 3 weeks earlier in 2009. Rough Quest won it in 1996 just 16 days after being 4L 2nd in the Gold Cup. Papillon (2000) and Montys Pass (2003) won it 20 days after their last preps. In fact, more than 50% of winners since 1988 have won it less than 4 weeks after their final prep.
But, as she's been looking for softer going, presumably it's looking doubtful. All I can say is that it was only 2 years ago that he was close 2nd in the 4m novice chase at the Festival on quickish ground. People said Monbeg Dude wouldn't handle the drying ground last year but was only 8L 3rd behind Many Clouds and was unlucky in running.
With the modified fences, regardless of the ground, I can't see Shotgun Paddy getting a better chance than now with a featherweight 10-03. But hey-ho.
Taken the NRNB from Bet365 for the GN at 50s as well. Probably all for nought.
(although bet365 is lower case 'b' - we are very touchy about that!!)