Results for my "Hard Stats": 1st - Max no of chases: 15 or less........CRAP 2nd - Younger than 11: ......CRAP Sorry about that Chaps...........back to the drawing board.
You're well in front!
I wouldn't worry.
Len's Little Girl was going to back Bless The Wings but went for Kilford instead.
Got 25's on Rogue. Did anyone see Bobby's kitten win the first at cork, very impressive. Won the breeders cup turf sprint in 2014 coming from last to first, keep an eye out for him will do well.
Results for my "Hard Stats": 1st - Max no of chases: 15 or less........CRAP 2nd - Younger than 11: ......CRAP Sorry about that Chaps...........back to the drawing board.
You're well in front!
I wouldn't worry.
Len's Little Girl was going to back Bless The Wings but went for Kilford instead.
AGGHH. Mea culpa Len. Profuse apologies to LLG. We'll make good SOON!!
I had a weird dream last night. I was watching the National on my phone. Suddenly the screen froze and the dreaded word "buffering" appeared. I missed the rest of the race and the next thing i saw was a very happy Paul Nicholls being interviewed. The winner... Wonderful Charm.
I had a weird dream last night. I was watching the National on my phone. Suddenly the screen froze and the dreaded word "buffering" appeared. I missed the rest of the race and the next thing i saw was a very happy Paul Nicholls being interviewed. The winner... Wonderful Charm.
So, will Wonderful Charm be carrying one of your shillings Len?
66/1 with the bookies but 104/1 on Betfair so i had a fiver on him. According to the stats he has no chance, but Paul Nicholls is one of the better trainers and a good judge of horses. Nicholls is the reason i can't rule out Silviniaco Conti.
He doesn't have any bad horses that's for sure but, for what it's worth, my crunching of the stats rates the best GN chance among the Nicholls' contingent (good e/w claims) to be Just A Par 40/1. Good luck len.
Peanuts, on hols at my and grabbing WiFi when I can, what's the 1,2,3 at present (I know your not as confident as years gone by but always got a very good run for my money) without being rude bud?
Peanuts, on hols at my and grabbing WiFi when I can, what's the 1,2,3 at present (I know your not as confident as years gone by but always got a very good run for my money) without being rude bud?
No worries Chief,
SHORT ANSWER: (definitely) MANY CLOUDS, (probably) VICS CANVAS & PERFECT CANDIDATE but recommend adding SAINT ARE
Longer Answer:
Yeap, last year's GN bust some big stats and it seems possible that, at least on quick ground, the post 2012 changes to the fences and trip have altered the character of the race. So, I'm kind of starting over with a re-constructed, simplified model.
Ground, as usual, will have a bearing on relative chances for some but (unless it turned outright Soft - seems unlikely) doesn't change the identity of the highest rated by the new model.
The big issue is where the cut off is. If those with 10.01 get a run, it would read:
Joint 1st: Midnight Prayer and Many Clouds 3rd: Cause Of Causes 4th: Vics Canvas, Perfect Candidate and Mountainous
We'll get much better idea next Monday at the 5 day Confirmation Stage BUT it seems to be shaping up that the cut should come somewhere among the 10.02s. If the 10.01s miss out but those with 10.02 get a run, the ratings read:
1st: MANY CLOUDS (8/1) 2nd: VICS CANVAS (66/1) and PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1) 4th: SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (25/1), GOONYELLA (20/1) and SAINT ARE (25/1) 7th: JUST A PAR (40/1) and ALVARADO (40/1)
Should be noted in respect of PERFECT CANDIDATE: he is on 10.02 (as is Alvarado) and is not guaranteed to make the cut. Also, he may not need it but he would definitely benefit from further rain.
Regarding betting:
I would only back Non Runner No Bet. I'm backing MANY CLOUDS to win, given his price. Re the others, I'm backing 3 others e/w and am waiting for BetVic to go to their usual 6 e/w places. May be imminent and I'll complete my slip asap but, given the hype for some fancied runners, it's possible that prices for VICS CANVAS and/or PERFECT CANDIDATE could drift higher in the run up to the race. In addition to the first 3, I'm adding SAINT ARE as the pick (IMO) of the co-4th rated runners.
Starting to look at Shutthefrontdoor now Peanuts but have big niggling doubts he can win on last years run so only place at best.......But then Jonjo has laid him out just for this since last year and he is a trainer I respect and believe he can find the improvement needed..........I must stop thinking it's doing my head in.......But it is the joy of the puzzle
Nicholls announces he could run run all 6 of his GN entries. Mullins will definitely run 4, possibly 5.
Ruby Walsh's assessment of the Mullins GN team: "They are five long-shots and any of them, on their best day, could run a big race, but whether their best days are behind them or not now is questionable."
Still isn't it exciting that the GN may decide the British Trainer's Championship? I mean that's what it's been lacking for the last 177 years, something to get really excited about.
With the likes of Pineau De Re, Alvarado, Cause Of Causes, Midnight Prayer, Mountainous, Highland Lodge, Royale Knight all potentially crowded out on 9 April, Aintree's loss could be Ayr's gain - all entered for the Scottish Grand National a week later.
Pitted against promising novice stayers, throw in Irish GN winner and runner-up Rogue Angel and Bless The Wings (both also entered), and they could well make it the best Scottish National in living memory.
Wash your mouth out Peanuts..........nothing could beat the 1974 Scottish National all I need to say is Red Rum
As usual, I doff my hat to you killer. You are spot on. The only horse ever to win them both in the same season and he made it a procession at Aintree with 12 bloody stone!! Topweight again with 11.13 at Ayr 3 weeks later.
Peanuts, on hols at my and grabbing WiFi when I can, what's the 1,2,3 at present (I know your not as confident as years gone by but always got a very good run for my money) without being rude bud?
No worries Chief,
SHORT ANSWER: (definitely) MANY CLOUDS, (probably) VICS CANVAS & PERFECT CANDIDATE but recommend adding SAINT ARE
Longer Answer:
Yeap, last year's GN bust some big stats and it seems possible that, at least on quick ground, the post 2012 changes to the fences and trip have altered the character of the race. So, I'm kind of starting over with a re-constructed, simplified model.
Ground, as usual, will have a bearing on relative chances for some but (unless it turned outright Soft - seems unlikely) doesn't change the identity of the highest rated by the new model.
The big issue is where the cut off is. If those with 10.01 get a run, it would read:
Joint 1st: Midnight Prayer and Many Clouds 3rd: Cause Of Causes 4th: Vics Canvas, Perfect Candidate and Mountainous
We'll get much better idea next Monday at the 5 day Confirmation Stage BUT it seems to be shaping up that the cut should come somewhere among the 10.02s. If the 10.01s miss out but those with 10.02 get a run, the ratings read:
1st: MANY CLOUDS (8/1) 2nd: VICS CANVAS (66/1) and PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1) 4th: SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (25/1), GOONYELLA (20/1) and SAINT ARE (25/1) 7th: JUST A PAR (40/1) and ALVARADO (40/1)
Should be noted in respect of PERFECT CANDIDATE: he is on 10.02 (as is Alvarado) and is not guaranteed to make the cut. Also, he may not need it but he would definitely benefit from further rain.
Regarding betting:
I would only back Non Runner No Bet. I'm backing MANY CLOUDS to win, given his price. Re the others, I'm backing 3 others e/w and am waiting for BetVic to go to their usual 6 e/w places. May be imminent and I'll complete my slip asap but, given the hype for some fancied runners, it's possible that prices for VICS CANVAS and/or PERFECT CANDIDATE could drift higher in the run up to the race. In addition to the first 3, I'm adding SAINT ARE as the pick (IMO) of the co-4th rated runners.
Red Rum was a great horse and a Grand National legend. No horse has won the race more than once since him. A major negative for Many Clouds.
He may not win len but let's consider:
Every trend follower ruled him out last year because there had been no GN winner since Rummy that carried as much as 11.09. So, Many Clouds has already bust the post-1974 stats.
Moreover:
1. He will be the first GN winner for at least 28 years to return the following year with as little as 1lb additional weight on its back.
Other than Don't Push It (3rd in 2011 with +5lbs), the minimum extra has been +7lbs and Hedgehunter carried an extra 11lbs as top weight when 6L 2nd in his 2006 defence.
2. With a Listed chase win under his belt he is the first GN winner for 17 years to return the following year having won again.
Of course, he will need at least an absence of misfortune in running, as every GN winner does, but on paper he stands the best chance of any returning GN winner for at least 28 years.
Peanuts that's great to see them clips of Red Rum,great stuff and thanks for putting them up.Old Rummy was an amazing horse and to achieve what he did that year is something else especially with the weight he had to carry and the fact the Grand National had proper fences to jump back then!This is going to sound really sad now but I spent some time with Rummy,Ginger McCain,Tommy Stack and Peter O'Sullivian many many years back and have signed pictures of them all and yes that includes Rummy's hoof print!
Even though I've backed Many Clouds and said he would win straight after last years race there is still a part of me that doesn't want him to win because of Red Rum's record.Anyway I must stop getting sentimental about a horse as we know I have a bad reputation as regards horses on a deathwatch thread somewhere......................
Peanuts that's great to see them clips of Red Rum,great stuff and thanks for putting them up.Old Rummy was an amazing horse and to achieve what he did that year is something else especially with the weight he had to carry and the fact the Grand National had proper fences to jump back then!This is going to sound really sad now but I spent some time with Rummy,Ginger McCain,Tommy Stack and Peter O'Sullivian many many years back and have signed pictures of them all and yes that includes Rummy's hoof print!
Just a mention you might want to have a look at Peanuts if of any interest to you or might even know of the site? A bloke I use to have a horse with has a site called" Racing To Profit" and his name is Josh Wright who is a stats and trends man,today he has put up his Grand National stats and trends if you fancied a read? I'm not plugging his site but is a very good tipster and shows a good profit but is also just a very good read plus it has a forum to it.
Starting to look at Shutthefrontdoor now Peanuts but have big niggling doubts he can win on last years run so only place at best.......But then Jonjo has laid him out just for this since last year and he is a trainer I respect and believe he can find the improvement needed..........I must stop thinking it's doing my head in.......But it is the joy of the puzzle
Geraghty's choice of ride (if Carlingford Lough gets the go ahead) will be telling killer.
As we all know, it's not uncommon to make the frame more than once without winning (The Pilgarlic, Durham Edition, Suny Bay, Clan Royal and State Of Play being perhaps the most memorable of quite a list). Shutthefrontdoor ticks a lot of boxes to suggest he could well join them and 25/1 gives some nice e/w juice. Same goes for Saint Are and Alvarado (if he gets a run).
However, and I'm going to sound like len now, when it comes to winning on a return it's a sobering thought that, not only has no GN winner won it again since Rummy, but 21 of the last 27 GN winners were debutants. Moreover, every one of the 6 returnees to win was either unusually fortunate (Amberleigh House and Red Marauder) or first-time had an excuse (Mon Mome - injury-interrupted season) or failed to complete (Little Polveir, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch [also slightly fortunate]).
Hedgehunter's probably the most hopeful precedent for STFD as he too looked out of gas when falling at the last and was also an 8y-o for his first attempt.
Even if Jonjo's fears about trip are right and STFD is a member of the Big Fella Thanks Club, even the Big Fella made the first 6 home more than once.
Just a mention you might want to have a look at Peanuts if of any interest to you or might even know of the site? A bloke I use to have a horse with has a site called" Racing To Profit" and his name is Josh Wright who is a stats and trends man,today he has put up his Grand National stats and trends if you fancied a read? I'm not plugging his site but is a very good tipster and shows a good profit but is also just a very good read plus it has a forum to it.
Cheers killer. Will take a look. Always like to compare notes. Seems like no 2 trend-followers agree on the GN, especially if they're a closet contrarian like me.......
Haven't read his Grand National piece yet but will tonight,it's a good read his site even if you don't agree or back his tips.I like to read as much as I can as you never know you may find one little nugget that helps you
Even though I've backed Many Clouds and said he would win straight after last years race there is still a part of me that doesn't want him to win because of Red Rum's record.Anyway I must stop getting sentimental about a horse as we know I have a bad reputation as regards horses on a deathwatch thread somewhere......................
Sort of agree, KK, but even if MC wins I don't believe it even begins to threaten a 1, 1, 2, 2, 1 record - nothing ever will. Rummy is and will always remain atop of the GN Pantheon.
Comments
I wouldn't worry.
Len's Little Girl was going to back Bless The Wings but went for Kilford instead.
Good luck len.
SHORT ANSWER: (definitely) MANY CLOUDS, (probably) VICS CANVAS & PERFECT CANDIDATE but recommend adding SAINT ARE
Longer Answer:
Yeap, last year's GN bust some big stats and it seems possible that, at least on quick ground, the post 2012 changes to the fences and trip have altered the character of the race. So, I'm kind of starting over with a re-constructed, simplified model.
Ground, as usual, will have a bearing on relative chances for some but (unless it turned outright Soft - seems unlikely) doesn't change the identity of the highest rated by the new model.
The big issue is where the cut off is. If those with 10.01 get a run, it would read:
Joint 1st: Midnight Prayer and Many Clouds
3rd: Cause Of Causes
4th: Vics Canvas, Perfect Candidate and Mountainous
We'll get much better idea next Monday at the 5 day Confirmation Stage BUT it seems to be shaping up that the cut should come somewhere among the 10.02s. If the 10.01s miss out but those with 10.02 get a run, the ratings read:
1st: MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2nd: VICS CANVAS (66/1) and PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1)
4th: SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (25/1), GOONYELLA (20/1) and SAINT ARE (25/1)
7th: JUST A PAR (40/1) and ALVARADO (40/1)
Should be noted in respect of PERFECT CANDIDATE: he is on 10.02 (as is Alvarado) and is not guaranteed to make the cut. Also, he may not need it but he would definitely benefit from further rain.
Regarding betting:
I would only back Non Runner No Bet.
I'm backing MANY CLOUDS to win, given his price.
Re the others, I'm backing 3 others e/w and am waiting for BetVic to go to their usual 6 e/w places. May be imminent and I'll complete my slip asap but, given the hype for some fancied runners, it's possible that prices for VICS CANVAS and/or PERFECT CANDIDATE could drift higher in the run up to the race.
In addition to the first 3, I'm adding SAINT ARE as the pick (IMO) of the co-4th rated runners.
Enjoy your hols!
Trimmed Saint Are in to 20s. Vics Canvas and Perfect Candidate both 66/1.
Ruby Walsh's assessment of the Mullins GN team: "They are five long-shots and any of them, on their best day, could run a big race, but whether their best days are behind them or not now is questionable."
Still isn't it exciting that the GN may decide the British Trainer's Championship? I mean that's what it's been lacking for the last 177 years, something to get really excited about.
With the likes of Pineau De Re, Alvarado, Cause Of Causes, Midnight Prayer, Mountainous, Highland Lodge, Royale Knight all potentially crowded out on 9 April, Aintree's loss could be Ayr's gain - all entered for the Scottish Grand National a week later.
Pitted against promising novice stayers, throw in Irish GN winner and runner-up Rogue Angel and Bless The Wings (both also entered), and they could well make it the best Scottish National in living memory.
The only horse ever to win them both in the same season and he made it a procession at Aintree with 12 bloody stone!! Topweight again with 11.13 at Ayr 3 weeks later.
Dear old Rummy, what a horse.
Every trend follower ruled him out last year because there had been no GN winner since Rummy that carried as much as 11.09. So, Many Clouds has already bust the post-1974 stats.
Moreover:
1. He will be the first GN winner for at least 28 years to return the following year with as little as 1lb additional weight on its back.
Other than Don't Push It (3rd in 2011 with +5lbs), the minimum extra has been +7lbs and Hedgehunter carried an extra 11lbs as top weight when 6L 2nd in his 2006 defence.
2. With a Listed chase win under his belt he is the first GN winner for 17 years to return the following year having won again.
Of course, he will need at least an absence of misfortune in running, as every GN winner does, but on paper he stands the best chance of any returning GN winner for at least 28 years.
I have Mutarakez & Holywell in a nice each way double?
Had another look through the national field yesterday and gotta say it will be a very good field with some decent horses not getting in.
As we all know, it's not uncommon to make the frame more than once without winning (The Pilgarlic, Durham Edition, Suny Bay, Clan Royal and State Of Play being perhaps the most memorable of quite a list). Shutthefrontdoor ticks a lot of boxes to suggest he could well join them and 25/1 gives some nice e/w juice. Same goes for Saint Are and Alvarado (if he gets a run).
However, and I'm going to sound like len now, when it comes to winning on a return it's a sobering thought that, not only has no GN winner won it again since Rummy, but 21 of the last 27 GN winners were debutants. Moreover, every one of the 6 returnees to win was either unusually fortunate (Amberleigh House and Red Marauder) or first-time had an excuse (Mon Mome - injury-interrupted season) or failed to complete (Little Polveir, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch [also slightly fortunate]).
Hedgehunter's probably the most hopeful precedent for STFD as he too looked out of gas when falling at the last and was also an 8y-o for his first attempt.
Even if Jonjo's fears about trip are right and STFD is a member of the Big Fella Thanks Club, even the Big Fella made the first 6 home more than once.
Seems like no 2 trend-followers agree on the GN, especially if they're a closet contrarian like me.......
Go on, have a shilling on the 13 year old!!