Ok Ladies and Gents, no more kvetching about the changing complexion of the GN field.
Sadly, it is a fact that if the 10.01s don't get a run, 3 of the top 6 winning chances, as rated by my model, won't participate.
Leaving them out, it now rates the runners with the best chances (in order of strength of stats) as follows:
MANY CLOUDS (8/1) VICS CANVAS (66/1) and PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1) - both worth waiting on BetVic to go 6 e/w places NRNB SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (25/1), GOONYELLA (20/1) and SAINT ARE (25/1)
Best Place Potential of the Remainder: JUST A PAR (40/1 - nice run today) and ALVARADO (40/1)
All pretty much assured a run, apart from Perfect Candidate and Alvarado, 2 of those on 10.02 still sweating.
Be lucky!
As a footnote, the 10.01s running would have made the top 6 look like this: Midnight Prayer and Many Clouds Cause Of Causes Vics Canvas, Perfect Candidate and Mountainous.
Cheers CHG, much appreciated but the proof of the pudding.....
In any event, a few comments on why my (modified) model rates the stat-profile of PERFECT CANDIDATE (9y-o 10-02) alongside that of VICS CANVAS as the Next Best to Many Clouds:
• Stamina a strength. Ran well (3.75L 5th, staying on one-paced) in a competitive renewal of the Class 1 3.5m Murphy Group Chase (won by Sausalito Sunrise, who’s up 19lbs since) at Cheltenham in November, a race which has become a decent guide for the GN:
o 2009: Don’t Push It and Hello Bud made the frame in it prior to their 2010 GN win and 5th o 2013: Alvarado won it and Monbeg Dude was close 4th prior to their respective 4th and 7th in the 2014 GN. Of course, the Dude was then an unlucky 3rd in the 2015 GN o 2014: The Druids Nephew was 1.5L 2nd and Saint Are 3rd prior to Druids strong run (leading and travelling strongly when falling 6 out) and Saint Are’s agonising 1.75L 2nd in the 2015 GN
It’s true that GN rivals The Romford Pele and Spring Heeled also ran creditably behind PC in November’s Murphy Chase and, respectively, have a 10lb and 4lb pull at the weights on PC, but their overall GN profiles are deficient.
• PC’s having an excellent season, winning or near-missing (<5L) in 3 of his 4 chases, all at Cheltenham and including subsequently giving 1lb and an 8L defeat to the progressive Beg To Differ over 3m3f, lumping 11.07 on testing ground. Again, he stayed on strongly up the Cheltenham hill. Raised 9lbs, he ran a better prep in the Kim Muir than the bare result suggests; 32L 6th but was hampered at the 1st and, again, 4 out. And yet again, he stayed on strongly up the Cheltenham hill.
• Never faced the GN fences (statistically irrelevant for GN winners) but has completed in all of his 12 chases (8 over the stiff fences of Cheltenham, Newbury and Chepstow).
• In the sweet spot for age, weight, seasons’ runs (4) and 23 days since last.
• Is versatile in terms of race tactics (hold up or handy) but his Achilles’ heel may be a lack of speed and late gears on quick ground. His breeding does not suggest that he wouldn’t act on decent ground – his sire (Winged Love) and dam-sire (Insan) both operated on quick ground and their progeny tend to handle sound surfaces well enough. One of his full sisters has won on Good and Good-to-Firm but PC’s never been tried over a trip on quick.
The Murphy Group Chase was run at a strong gallop and in a respectable time for GS (he raced in midfield) but, certainly, his performances to date suggest that the more juice in the ground (and the more Good-to-Soft or Soft in the going description) the better. Significantly, rain is forecast off and on for Liverpool from now through the GN meeting.
It's always difficult to judge whether an out-and-out stayer, still in the early stages of their chasing career, NEEDS testing ground or simply a true test by either testing ground or a trip. Monbeg Dude defied those that regarded last year's GN ground as too quick for him. The lack of gears for PC doesn't deter - I'll be content if he's simply not slowing down after 34 furlongs (most others still running will be) - it's whether he can stay close enough at Good ground pace. If it is quick ground and he's down the field in running of course he will need to avoid traffic problems, but even if the going isn't ideal I'll be happy to have him on my ticket at 66s, especially if 6th place is available.
Hi Peanuts Talking of Mullins horses I'm intrigued by the entry of Sir Des Champs. Still only 10 with 11stone and second in the Gold Cup in 2013. He couldn't possibly come back to his best or could he ? Silver Birch came back after a very serious injury to win.
Hi Peanuts Talking of Mullins horses I'm intrigued by the entry of Sir Des Champs. Still only 10 with 11stone and second in the Gold Cup in 2013. He couldn't possibly come back to his best or could he ? Silver Birch came back after a very serious injury to win.
Got a lot going for him Chief. He's got 10.13 actually and is off a mark 19lb below its peak. Handles any ground, good record in the spring. For that reason, impossible to know how much of his former class he retains, having his 3 runs on soft or heavy from Nov to Feb since his return. A nice Listed win and a couple of respectable if unspectacular runs in Grade 1 company. He's raced mainly on soft/heavy in Ireland of course but, aside from registering his only Fall, he's unbeaten when running on Good or Yielding and it's possible he could look a new horse on a sounder surface. Not many negatives all told but you've got to whittle them down somehow and he ticks few positives for my model in the GN stat department. Firstly, there have been GN winners with no form at 3.5m+ but it's all about %s for me and, unlike Silver Birch (Welsh National winner on heavy, Becher Chase winner, Placed in the 4m novice chase on Good at the Festival), SDC's lack of form at 27f+ or over the GN fences leaves his appetite for the trip and fences as guesswork. Secondly, he had his last run 63 days prior. While he only misses it by just 10 days and though there have been runners-up that didn't tick this box, every single winner of the GN for at least 27 years had at least 1 run after announcement of the GN weights. Having said all of that, at 40/1 I think he represents a very interesting e/w proposition.
Thank you Peanuts excellent summary as always. He is owned by Gigginstown so it will be interesting to see if Cooper rides him .
Cheers Chief, Mullins seems to be thinking Cooper will ride him and, of O'Leary's other entries that will definitely make the cut, he's not ridden First Lieutenant or Roi Du Mee this season and Rule The World has other entries this weekend and is a longer price for the GN. SDC has been given an entry for the Topham as well so, despite Mullins' musings to the media, given the Vautour U-turn I'd stick to NRNB prices
PS 18 of the top 40 currently still entered are Mullins, Nicholls, JP or Gigginstown runners........wow, what a great quality field. Where would the GN be without them? ZZZZzzzzzzzzzz
AND FINALLY, again assuming that 10-02 is the lightest weight carried this year, some comments on my model's joint 4th rated runners.
There have been GNs when I’ve backed fewer than 4 runners but, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune often evident in a GN and with at least 5 e/w places in play, I like to cover the bases if prices permit.
As regards this year, since my model rates the 8/1 market favourite MANY CLOUDS around 10L clear of his nearest rivals (i.e. barring misfortune, he should win), I’ll be backing him Win only. Of course, I’ll also back my model’s Next Best selections, VICS CANVAS and PERFECT CANDIDATE, e/w 6 places. All NRNB.
It’s tempting to go without adding further interests since the 4th~6th rated are all 20~25/1 and can’t all be added without meaningfully compromising potential returns. Moreover their absolute stat-scores are consistent with only one past GN winner, Amberleigh House in 2004, who was fortunate that Clan Royal’s jockey dropped his whip, allowing the horse to wander badly in the run-in and lose what had appeared an unassailable lead; BTW, Clan Royal had a superior stat-score to Amberleigh House.
However, the model does rate them just 5L behind VC and PC and, as my betting slip has a “barbell” complexion with just the 8/1 Fav and two 66/1 shots, I’m left with an inviting gap in the 20-25/1 territory.
So, in card order, a partly subjective review of their respective GN credentials to see if one of them looks particularly tempting:
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (9y-o, 10-11) 25/1
Ticks some good boxes: • 4 wins or near-misses in 6 chases at 3m+ • Loves Spring ground – won, near-miss or made-the-frame 3 from 3 in chases 10 March~9 May • That includes finishing 3.25L 6th in the 4m Novice chase at The Festival, winning the Irish National and his 13L 5th in the 2015 GN with 11.02.
Timeform comments that he reportedly picked up an injury during the GN (though I can find no other report to that effect) and that it “may explain why he faded late”. IMHO, that’s an improbable explanation, not least because if it was an injury that caused him to flag so obviously after the last and go to nothing at the Elbow, AP certainly didn’t notice it as there was no undue haste to dismount him after the line. It also wasn’t serious enough to stop him returning on time in early November this season with a “really solid” [Racing Post] run under top-weight in a competitive hurdle.
While he’s now a 9y-o and can be expected to get further with age, in my opinion he ran totally out of gas last year and could well be a member of that club (like Big Fella Thanks and so many others) that on Good ground can get 32, maybe 33 furlongs but not a yard further.
Certainly his pedigree suggests that could be the case. Of the 40 NH horses sired by Accordion and rated 140+, he is the only one to have won at beyond 26f. His dam-sire (Strong Gale), while a prolific sire of top staying chasers, never produced a GN winner and none of Shutthefrontdoor’s 6 half-siblings have won beyond 3m.
If I’m right, even carrying 5lbs less than last year, he’s unlikely to see out the trip as a winner, though he certainly remains capable of making the frame if the astute Geraghty is aboard.
GOONYELLA (9y-o, 10-08) 20/1
Again ticks some good boxes • Bucket loads of stamina: in 2015, won the 34f Midlands National on Soft and was fast-finishing 0.75L 2nd in the Scottish National a month later. • Many think that he needs testing going to have a chance but the Ayr marathon was on Good and run in a time just 3.7 seconds slower than standard. Goonyella is a classic case of a stayer that needs a thorough test of stamina but that can be by trip or testing going. • His pedigree supports that, being by Presenting whose progeny tend to love, but not require, a sound surface (including GN winner Ballabriggs and Irish National winner Niche Market, both on Good ground) • If he gets round without mishap, none are likely to be finishing faster than Goonyella.
HOWEVER, that is quite a big IF.
The evidence from 2 runs over the GN fences in Becher Chases, on GS and Soft that should have suited him over the shorter trip, isn't promising. He UR'd at the first in 2014 (OK, that can happen) but his moderate 45L 9th last December elicited the following comment from David Orton of the Racing Post: "He didn´t fancy the National fences much....and was in trouble around halfway".
Better ground may help his jumping or it could readily expose a dislike for the GN fences as he struggles to stay in touch. If he negotiates the first circuit and is remotely within striking distance, I’ll be looking to back him in running.
SAINT ARE (10y-o, 10-05) 25/1 [needs 5 to come out to get a run]
A serious contender: • Loves Aintree. Won the Grade 1 Sefton novice hurdle in 2011 as a 5y-o and in chases (at trips 2.5m+ on Mildmay and National courses) he’s won or near-missed (<5L) 4 times in 8 runs there. 2 of those near-misses were registered last season in the Becher Chase (3.75L 3rd) and GN. • Best form is on Good and GS. In the Spring, his Aintree record reads 119F2 – that 9th being a deceptively promising run as a 7y-o in the 2013 GN. • Carrying 10.06 last year, he was just held off by Many Clouds to finish 1.75L 2nd but he’d made a bad mistake at 2nd Bechers which cost him several lengths and, possibly, the race. He will carry 1lb less and, of course, MC will carry 1lb more this time. • Age, weight and season’s runs (3), the last 45 days prior are all in the sweet spot and that final prep was a strong win under 11.11 in a 3.25m veterans chase against solid opposition (4th placed Shotavodka subsequently winning convincingly the Greatwood Veterans chase at Newbury). Saint Are’s OR raised to 150 on the strength of his win, so is 4lbs “well-in” on 9 April.
CONCLUSION
The whole concept of my model is to whittle down the GN field by looking at best fits of career profile with former winners and near-missers and backing those with the best aggregate stats.
Considering these 3, with identical stat scores, it’s an easy subjective decision for me to make as to which one I think is the safer % bet.
While any could come home in front on 9 April, IMO there are doubts about Shutthefrontdoor’s ultimate stamina and Goonyella’s aptitude for the unique fences. Neither issue is in doubt for SAINT ARE, for whom the biggest risks would seem to be misfortune in running or soft ground, and I will readily add him at 25/1 (5 places) e/w as the 4th and final member of my 2016 GN squad……………….I’m liking the look of it.
Cause Of Causes (topweight after his penalty for the Kim Muir win) and Living Next Door declared for the Irish Grand National on Monday. Will run the slide-rule over them tomorrow.
I must admit Peanuts Saint Are is coming into my thinking a lot lately and just dont know if i should add him to my current ante post list
TBH killer, I'm surprised he's as long as 25s....I guess he wouldn't be if he was in a big yard. Forget models, if you make Many Clouds fav, why wouldn't you fancy this fella 2lb better off for a 1.75L defeat?
Exactly Peanuts I keep thinking he should be shorter or he is going to go shorter and to be honest I should be backing him
No point in waiting for 6 places cos BetVic have him at 20s for 4 places. I've taken bet365's 25s e/w 5 places NRNB. Do I qualify for a commission Bob?
Exactly Peanuts I keep thinking he should be shorter or he is going to go shorter and to be honest I should be backing him
No point in waiting for 6 places cos BetVic have him at 20s for 4 places. I've taken bet365's 25s e/w 5 places NRNB. Do I qualify for a commission Bob?
Exactly Peanuts I keep thinking he should be shorter or he is going to go shorter and to be honest I should be backing him
No point in waiting for 6 places cos BetVic have him at 20s for 4 places. I've taken bet365's 25s e/w 5 places NRNB. Do I qualify for a commission Bob?
I think the way it works, Peanuts, is that I do ;-)
Exactly Peanuts I keep thinking he should be shorter or he is going to go shorter and to be honest I should be backing him
No point in waiting for 6 places cos BetVic have him at 20s for 4 places. I've taken bet365's 25s e/w 5 places NRNB. Do I qualify for a commission Bob?
I think the way it works, Peanuts, is that I do ;-)
Meanwhile, a little diversion - the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse, to be run on Monday.
I'm using an elimination-style stat screen (sample = last 15 renewals, using stats of winners and near-missers – 36 in total):
HARD STATS:
• AGE – younger than 11 (36/36 winners and near-missers)
Take out: Bless The Wings, Cantlow, Raz De Maree, Portrait King, Ballyadam Approach
• WEIGHT – 11.00 or less (35/36 , all 15 winners)
Take out: Cause of Causes, Mala Beach, My Murphy, Living Next Door, Sub Lieutenant, Thunder & Roses
• LAST RUN – 11~51 days (34/36, 14/15 winners)
Take out: Another Hero, Folsom Blue, Killer Crow, Tulsa Jack, Definite Ruby, Futuramic, Riverside City
• MILEAGE – 15 or fewer chases (34/36, all 15 winners)
Take out: Rogue Angel, Russe Blanc
From 29, that leaves us with a Long List of 9:
BONNY KATE VENETIEN DE MAI BAIE DES ILES CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE KILFORD UNIC DE BERSY JAROB BEARLY LEGAL WRATH OF TITANS
Subjective whittling down:
• I’m going to take out BAIE DES ILES and CAPT VON TRAPPE because the maximum field size in which they’ve won or near-missed in any race is just 10 and the % view is that they could struggle in the chaos that is typically an Irish National.
That leaves 7 – working on these, more anon...................I definitely need to get out more
OK, a simple final whittling down to 4 - I'll be backing those that have won or near-missed in a chase at Fairyhouse (all have also won or near-missed in a 3m+ chase or won a 3m PtP):
BONNY KATE (6y-o, 10.09) 8/1 UNIC DE BERSY (8y-o, 10.05) 33/1 JAROB (9y-o, 10.02) 33/1 WRATH OF TITANS (7y-o, 9.13) 25/1 (he is a half brother to last year's winner Thunder And Roses, who carries too much weight this time)
Beats sticking a pin in the paper.............maybe
One caveat re Jarob, you might want to wait to see how much rain Fairyhouse gets this afternoon. He'd much prefer it to stay away. It's dry there tomorrow.
Are you doing all 4 in a ew accumulator or all individual?
This is Low Conviction stuff Chief but I've done Bonny Kate to win as she's 2nd fav and the others 5 places e/w NRNB (all individual bets). But I am keeping an eye on the weather there today - if it rains a lot there's another of my final list that prefers it soft and is at a decent e/w price that I might slip in, as there's 5 places on offer.
Hmm, that Ryanair (congrats to Kerry Lee BTW - what a start to a training career) was 31.9 secs slow of std and slower than last year's, when the Official Going was Soft.
Looks like the rain has definitely got into the ground, despite the Y (Sft places) description.
In light of that, I'm going to add KILFORD (bet365 28/1 e/w 5 places) as a 5th interest on my slip. He should relish the softer ground and ticks all the "hard" stat boxes. While I left him off my final 4 because he doesn't have a chase win at Fairyhouse to his name, he has one at Navan, which is also an undulating and galloping track (he's also won going right-handed).
Market jt fav Venetien De Mai certainly appears to be a big threat. Like Kilford, he made my final short list, will also relish softer ground and has chase wins at undulating and galloping tracks (Naas & Down Royal) but, though it has a small sample, of the 13 winners and near-missers in 4 Irish GNs since 2001 with "Soft" anywhere in the going description, only 1 (4.5L 2nd Oscar Time 2010) carried more than 10.06. It may be a slender margin but he'll carry 10.09 and I'll take that as a reason to opt for Kilford with 10.05 - can't split them on stats otherwise.
Peanuts... I am interested to know why you seem to have dismissed Silviniaco Conti? He is the class horse in the race and even with 11-8 it could be argued that he should be carrying more.
Peanuts... I am interested to know why you seem to have dismissed Silviniaco Conti? He is the class horse in the race and even with 11-8 it could be argued that he should be carrying more.
Agreed. If he gets the trip, he wins. The price has gone though.
Comments
Sadly, it is a fact that if the 10.01s don't get a run, 3 of the top 6 winning chances, as rated by my model, won't participate.
Leaving them out, it now rates the runners with the best chances (in order of strength of stats) as follows:
MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
VICS CANVAS (66/1) and PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1) - both worth waiting on BetVic to go 6 e/w places NRNB
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (25/1), GOONYELLA (20/1) and SAINT ARE (25/1)
Best Place Potential of the Remainder:
JUST A PAR (40/1 - nice run today) and ALVARADO (40/1)
All pretty much assured a run, apart from Perfect Candidate and Alvarado, 2 of those on 10.02 still sweating.
Be lucky!
As a footnote, the 10.01s running would have made the top 6 look like this:
Midnight Prayer and Many Clouds
Cause Of Causes
Vics Canvas, Perfect Candidate and Mountainous.
Hey ho.
In any event, a few comments on why my (modified) model rates the stat-profile of PERFECT CANDIDATE (9y-o 10-02) alongside that of VICS CANVAS as the Next Best to Many Clouds:
• Stamina a strength. Ran well (3.75L 5th, staying on one-paced) in a competitive renewal of the Class 1 3.5m Murphy Group Chase (won by Sausalito Sunrise, who’s up 19lbs since) at Cheltenham in November, a race which has become a decent guide for the GN:
o 2009: Don’t Push It and Hello Bud made the frame in it prior to their 2010 GN win and 5th
o 2013: Alvarado won it and Monbeg Dude was close 4th prior to their respective 4th and 7th in the 2014 GN. Of course, the Dude was then an unlucky 3rd in the 2015 GN
o 2014: The Druids Nephew was 1.5L 2nd and Saint Are 3rd prior to Druids strong run (leading and travelling strongly when falling 6 out) and Saint Are’s agonising 1.75L 2nd in the 2015 GN
It’s true that GN rivals The Romford Pele and Spring Heeled also ran creditably behind PC in November’s Murphy Chase and, respectively, have a 10lb and 4lb pull at the weights on PC, but their overall GN profiles are deficient.
• PC’s having an excellent season, winning or near-missing (<5L) in 3 of his 4 chases, all at Cheltenham and including subsequently giving 1lb and an 8L defeat to the progressive Beg To Differ over 3m3f, lumping 11.07 on testing ground. Again, he stayed on strongly up the Cheltenham hill. Raised 9lbs, he ran a better prep in the Kim Muir than the bare result suggests; 32L 6th but was hampered at the 1st and, again, 4 out. And yet again, he stayed on strongly up the Cheltenham hill.
• Never faced the GN fences (statistically irrelevant for GN winners) but has completed in all of his 12 chases (8 over the stiff fences of Cheltenham, Newbury and Chepstow).
• In the sweet spot for age, weight, seasons’ runs (4) and 23 days since last.
• Is versatile in terms of race tactics (hold up or handy) but his Achilles’ heel may be a lack of speed and late gears on quick ground. His breeding does not suggest that he wouldn’t act on decent ground – his sire (Winged Love) and dam-sire (Insan) both operated on quick ground and their progeny tend to handle sound surfaces well enough. One of his full sisters has won on Good and Good-to-Firm but PC’s never been tried over a trip on quick.
The Murphy Group Chase was run at a strong gallop and in a respectable time for GS (he raced in midfield) but, certainly, his performances to date suggest that the more juice in the ground (and the more Good-to-Soft or Soft in the going description) the better. Significantly, rain is forecast off and on for Liverpool from now through the GN meeting.
It's always difficult to judge whether an out-and-out stayer, still in the early stages of their chasing career, NEEDS testing ground or simply a true test by either testing ground or a trip. Monbeg Dude defied those that regarded last year's GN ground as too quick for him. The lack of gears for PC doesn't deter - I'll be content if he's simply not slowing down after 34 furlongs (most others still running will be) - it's whether he can stay close enough at Good ground pace. If it is quick ground and he's down the field in running of course he will need to avoid traffic problems, but even if the going isn't ideal I'll be happy to have him on my ticket at 66s, especially if 6th place is available.
Talking of Mullins horses I'm intrigued by the entry of Sir Des Champs.
Still only 10 with 11stone and second in the Gold Cup in 2013.
He couldn't possibly come back to his best or could he ?
Silver Birch came back after a very serious injury to win.
He's got 10.13 actually and is off a mark 19lb below its peak.
Handles any ground, good record in the spring. For that reason, impossible to know how much of his former class he retains, having his 3 runs on soft or heavy from Nov to Feb since his return. A nice Listed win and a couple of respectable if unspectacular runs in Grade 1 company. He's raced mainly on soft/heavy in Ireland of course but, aside from registering his only Fall, he's unbeaten when running on Good or Yielding and it's possible he could look a new horse on a sounder surface.
Not many negatives all told but you've got to whittle them down somehow and he ticks few positives for my model in the GN stat department.
Firstly, there have been GN winners with no form at 3.5m+ but it's all about %s for me and, unlike Silver Birch (Welsh National winner on heavy, Becher Chase winner, Placed in the 4m novice chase on Good at the Festival), SDC's lack of form at 27f+ or over the GN fences leaves his appetite for the trip and fences as guesswork.
Secondly, he had his last run 63 days prior. While he only misses it by just 10 days and though there have been runners-up that didn't tick this box, every single winner of the GN for at least 27 years had at least 1 run after announcement of the GN weights.
Having said all of that, at 40/1 I think he represents a very interesting e/w proposition.
He is owned by Gigginstown so it will be interesting to see if Cooper rides him .
Mullins seems to be thinking Cooper will ride him and, of O'Leary's other entries that will definitely make the cut, he's not ridden First Lieutenant or Roi Du Mee this season and Rule The World has other entries this weekend and is a longer price for the GN.
SDC has been given an entry for the Topham as well so, despite Mullins' musings to the media, given the Vautour U-turn I'd stick to NRNB prices
PS 18 of the top 40 currently still entered are Mullins, Nicholls, JP or Gigginstown runners........wow, what a great quality field. Where would the GN be without them? ZZZZzzzzzzzzzz
There have been GNs when I’ve backed fewer than 4 runners but, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune often evident in a GN and with at least 5 e/w places in play, I like to cover the bases if prices permit.
As regards this year, since my model rates the 8/1 market favourite MANY CLOUDS around 10L clear of his nearest rivals (i.e. barring misfortune, he should win), I’ll be backing him Win only. Of course, I’ll also back my model’s Next Best selections, VICS CANVAS and PERFECT CANDIDATE, e/w 6 places. All NRNB.
It’s tempting to go without adding further interests since the 4th~6th rated are all 20~25/1 and can’t all be added without meaningfully compromising potential returns. Moreover their absolute stat-scores are consistent with only one past GN winner, Amberleigh House in 2004, who was fortunate that Clan Royal’s jockey dropped his whip, allowing the horse to wander badly in the run-in and lose what had appeared an unassailable lead; BTW, Clan Royal had a superior stat-score to Amberleigh House.
However, the model does rate them just 5L behind VC and PC and, as my betting slip has a “barbell” complexion with just the 8/1 Fav and two 66/1 shots, I’m left with an inviting gap in the 20-25/1 territory.
So, in card order, a partly subjective review of their respective GN credentials to see if one of them looks particularly tempting:
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (9y-o, 10-11) 25/1
Ticks some good boxes:
• 4 wins or near-misses in 6 chases at 3m+
• Loves Spring ground – won, near-miss or made-the-frame 3 from 3 in chases 10 March~9 May
• That includes finishing 3.25L 6th in the 4m Novice chase at The Festival, winning the Irish National and his 13L 5th in the 2015 GN with 11.02.
Timeform comments that he reportedly picked up an injury during the GN (though I can find no other report to that effect) and that it “may explain why he faded late”. IMHO, that’s an improbable explanation, not least because if it was an injury that caused him to flag so obviously after the last and go to nothing at the Elbow, AP certainly didn’t notice it as there was no undue haste to dismount him after the line. It also wasn’t serious enough to stop him returning on time in early November this season with a “really solid” [Racing Post] run under top-weight in a competitive hurdle.
While he’s now a 9y-o and can be expected to get further with age, in my opinion he ran totally out of gas last year and could well be a member of that club (like Big Fella Thanks and so many others) that on Good ground can get 32, maybe 33 furlongs but not a yard further.
Certainly his pedigree suggests that could be the case. Of the 40 NH horses sired by Accordion and rated 140+, he is the only one to have won at beyond 26f. His dam-sire (Strong Gale), while a prolific sire of top staying chasers, never produced a GN winner and none of Shutthefrontdoor’s 6 half-siblings have won beyond 3m.
If I’m right, even carrying 5lbs less than last year, he’s unlikely to see out the trip as a winner, though he certainly remains capable of making the frame if the astute Geraghty is aboard.
GOONYELLA (9y-o, 10-08) 20/1
Again ticks some good boxes
• Bucket loads of stamina: in 2015, won the 34f Midlands National on Soft and was fast-finishing 0.75L 2nd in the Scottish National a month later.
• Many think that he needs testing going to have a chance but the Ayr marathon was on Good and run in a time just 3.7 seconds slower than standard. Goonyella is a classic case of a stayer that needs a thorough test of stamina but that can be by trip or testing going.
• His pedigree supports that, being by Presenting whose progeny tend to love, but not require, a sound surface (including GN winner Ballabriggs and Irish National winner Niche Market, both on Good ground)
• If he gets round without mishap, none are likely to be finishing faster than Goonyella.
HOWEVER, that is quite a big IF.
The evidence from 2 runs over the GN fences in Becher Chases, on GS and Soft that should have suited him over the shorter trip, isn't promising. He UR'd at the first in 2014 (OK, that can happen) but his moderate 45L 9th last December elicited the following comment from David Orton of the Racing Post: "He didn´t fancy the National fences much....and was in trouble around halfway".
Better ground may help his jumping or it could readily expose a dislike for the GN fences as he struggles to stay in touch. If he negotiates the first circuit and is remotely within striking distance, I’ll be looking to back him in running.
SAINT ARE (10y-o, 10-05) 25/1 [needs 5 to come out to get a run]
A serious contender:
• Loves Aintree. Won the Grade 1 Sefton novice hurdle in 2011 as a 5y-o and in chases (at trips 2.5m+ on Mildmay and National courses) he’s won or near-missed (<5L) 4 times in 8 runs there. 2 of those near-misses were registered last season in the Becher Chase (3.75L 3rd) and GN.
• Best form is on Good and GS. In the Spring, his Aintree record reads 119F2 – that 9th being a deceptively promising run as a 7y-o in the 2013 GN.
• Carrying 10.06 last year, he was just held off by Many Clouds to finish 1.75L 2nd but he’d made a bad mistake at 2nd Bechers which cost him several lengths and, possibly, the race. He will carry 1lb less and, of course, MC will carry 1lb more this time.
• Age, weight and season’s runs (3), the last 45 days prior are all in the sweet spot and that final prep was a strong win under 11.11 in a 3.25m veterans chase against solid opposition (4th placed Shotavodka subsequently winning convincingly the Greatwood Veterans chase at Newbury). Saint Are’s OR raised to 150 on the strength of his win, so is 4lbs “well-in” on 9 April.
CONCLUSION
The whole concept of my model is to whittle down the GN field by looking at best fits of career profile with former winners and near-missers and backing those with the best aggregate stats.
Considering these 3, with identical stat scores, it’s an easy subjective decision for me to make as to which one I think is the safer % bet.
While any could come home in front on 9 April, IMO there are doubts about Shutthefrontdoor’s ultimate stamina and Goonyella’s aptitude for the unique fences.
Neither issue is in doubt for SAINT ARE, for whom the biggest risks would seem to be misfortune in running or soft ground, and I will readily add him at 25/1 (5 places) e/w as the 4th and final member of my 2016 GN squad……………….I’m liking the look of it.
Will run the slide-rule over them tomorrow.
Forget models, if you make Many Clouds fav, why wouldn't you fancy this fella 2lb better off for a 1.75L defeat?
Do I qualify for a commission Bob?
I'm using an elimination-style stat screen (sample = last 15 renewals, using stats of winners and near-missers – 36 in total):
HARD STATS:
• AGE – younger than 11 (36/36 winners and near-missers)
Take out: Bless The Wings, Cantlow, Raz De Maree, Portrait King, Ballyadam Approach
• WEIGHT – 11.00 or less (35/36 , all 15 winners)
Take out: Cause of Causes, Mala Beach, My Murphy, Living Next Door, Sub Lieutenant, Thunder & Roses
• LAST RUN – 11~51 days (34/36, 14/15 winners)
Take out: Another Hero, Folsom Blue, Killer Crow, Tulsa Jack, Definite Ruby, Futuramic, Riverside City
• MILEAGE – 15 or fewer chases (34/36, all 15 winners)
Take out: Rogue Angel, Russe Blanc
From 29, that leaves us with a Long List of 9:
BONNY KATE
VENETIEN DE MAI
BAIE DES ILES
CAPTAIN VON TRAPPE
KILFORD
UNIC DE BERSY
JAROB
BEARLY LEGAL
WRATH OF TITANS
Subjective whittling down:
• I’m going to take out BAIE DES ILES and CAPT VON TRAPPE because the maximum field size in which they’ve won or near-missed in any race is just 10 and the % view is that they could struggle in the chaos that is typically an Irish National.
That leaves 7 – working on these, more anon...................I definitely need to get out more
BONNY KATE (6y-o, 10.09) 8/1
UNIC DE BERSY (8y-o, 10.05) 33/1
JAROB (9y-o, 10.02) 33/1
WRATH OF TITANS (7y-o, 9.13) 25/1 (he is a half brother to last year's winner Thunder And Roses, who carries too much weight this time)
Beats sticking a pin in the paper.............maybe
It's dry there tomorrow.
But I am keeping an eye on the weather there today - if it rains a lot there's another of my final list that prefers it soft and is at a decent e/w price that I might slip in, as there's 5 places on offer.
ádh mór
Looks like the rain has definitely got into the ground, despite the Y (Sft places) description.
In light of that, I'm going to add KILFORD (bet365 28/1 e/w 5 places) as a 5th interest on my slip. He should relish the softer ground and ticks all the "hard" stat boxes. While I left him off my final 4 because he doesn't have a chase win at Fairyhouse to his name, he has one at Navan, which is also an undulating and galloping track (he's also won going right-handed).
Market jt fav Venetien De Mai certainly appears to be a big threat. Like Kilford, he made my final short list, will also relish softer ground and has chase wins at undulating and galloping tracks (Naas & Down Royal) but, though it has a small sample, of the 13 winners and near-missers in 4 Irish GNs since 2001 with "Soft" anywhere in the going description, only 1 (4.5L 2nd Oscar Time 2010) carried more than 10.06. It may be a slender margin but he'll carry 10.09 and I'll take that as a reason to opt for Kilford with 10.05 - can't split them on stats otherwise.
ádh mór
The price has gone though.