Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
Poor bookies are as rare as rocking horse shit mate...
Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
In a word "yes". One of the restrictions they will use. The next one might be to allow SP only. And then the amount allowed will be limited - all the way down to 10p if you haven't taken the hint already and stopped using them.
All these restrictions allow the bookies' PR men to claim "we never close accounts".
Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
I'll say the following not in an attempt to convince everybody to like bookmakers (I know that's futile) but to give some explanation.
Bookmakers, like any other commercial operation, are in it to make profit. They will restrict customers where they believe, following an analysis of their business, that they are unlikely to make a profit in the long run. Whether a customer is winning or losing is of secondary importance - it is the nature of their business that will determine the bookmaker's stance. If a customer gives a good mix of business then winning or losing is irrelevant as the bookmaker knows that in the long run the customer is likely to lose (or at least the bookmaker will get some of those losses back) - and if they win then good luck to them. However if a customer is highly selective e.g. they only ever bet on maiden 2-y-o races in Ireland, then whether or not they are winning right now will not determine how quickly they will be restricted.
Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
I'll say the following not in an attempt to convince everybody to like bookmakers (I know that's futile) but to give some explanation.
Bookmakers, like any other commercial operation, are in it to make profit. They will restrict customers where they believe, following an analysis of their business, that they are unlikely to make a profit in the long run. Whether a customer is winning or losing is of secondary importance - it is the nature of their business that will determine the bookmaker's stance. If a customer gives a good mix of business then winning or losing is irrelevant as the bookmaker knows that in the long run the customer is likely to lose (or at least the bookmaker will get some of those losses back) - and if they win then good luck to them. However if a customer is highly selective e.g. they only ever bet on maiden 2-y-o races in Ireland, then whether or not they are winning right now will not determine how quickly they will be restricted.
(although bet365 is lower case 'b' - we are very touchy about that!!)
You wouldn't give me 6 places if I tell you which one my model says "LAY" would you bob?
PS It's a vicious lie it said Lay Ballabriggs in 2011
I'm sure we can do a deal, Peanuts.
My stripped back model (now considering the stats of only winners and
That's very interesting, Peanuts. However the National is not like any other race on the calendar (as I know you know). The book is primarily made up of once a year punters who will go with names, the betting, national tipsters, colours, favourite jockets etc... - they don't study form! We, on CL, are different because we are very lucky to have you.
With very competitive pricing, enhanced place terms and promotions it is usual for bookmakers to lose on the National, and they expect and accept this as it is a very good customer recruitment tool. A loss leader is every sense.
Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
I'll say the following not in an attempt to convince everybody to like bookmakers (I know that's futile) but to give some explanation.
Bookmakers, like any other commercial operation, are in it to make profit. They will restrict customers where they believe, following an analysis of their business, that they are unlikely to make a profit in the long run. Whether a customer is winning or losing is of secondary importance - it is the nature of their business that will determine the bookmaker's stance. If a customer gives a good mix of business then winning or losing is irrelevant as the bookmaker knows that in the long run the customer is likely to lose (or at least the bookmaker will get some of those losses back) - and if they win then good luck to them. However if a customer is highly selective e.g. they only ever bet on maiden 2-y-o races in Ireland, then whether or not they are winning right now will not determine how quickly they will be restricted & filthy
Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
I'll say the following not in an attempt to convince everybody to like bookmakers (I know that's futile) but to give some explanation.
Bookmakers, like any other commercial operation, are in it to make profit. They will restrict customers where they believe, following an analysis of their business, that they are unlikely to make a profit in the long run. Whether a customer is winning or losing is of secondary importance - it is the nature of their business that will determine the bookmaker's stance. If a customer gives a good mix of business then winning or losing is irrelevant as the bookmaker knows that in the long run the customer is likely to lose (or at least the bookmaker will get some of those losses back) - and if they win then good luck to them. However if a customer is highly selective e.g. they only ever bet on maiden 2-y-o races in Ireland, then whether or not they are winning right now will not determine how quickly they will be restricted & filthy
Bob mate of mine had a very good week, bets with bet victor who offer best odds guaranteed, after taking them for 11k, this week, they have withdrawn best odds guaranteed, is this a usual thing for bookies if someone starts winning a lot.
I'll say the following not in an attempt to convince everybody to like bookmakers (I know that's futile) but to give some explanation.
Bookmakers, like any other commercial operation, are in it to make profit. They will restrict customers where they believe, following an analysis of their business, that they are unlikely to make a profit in the long run. Whether a customer is winning or losing is of secondary importance - it is the nature of their business that will determine the bookmaker's stance. If a customer gives a good mix of business then winning or losing is irrelevant as the bookmaker knows that in the long run the customer is likely to lose (or at least the bookmaker will get some of those losses back) - and if they win then good luck to them. However if a customer is highly selective e.g. they only ever bet on maiden 2-y-o races in Ireland, then whether or not they are winning right now will not determine how quickly they will be restricted & filthy
and arbers too?
filth!
Although I have never been an arber I am not surprised by the rather typical bookmaker's response if I might say. When a bookie hedges their position it's called business. When a punter does the same it's tantamount to being illegal.
For example, the big firms send money to the track allegedly to reflect their positions and the SP is reflected accordingly. Except the same firms have frequently been caught with their trousers down for creating SPs of 150% - for 8 runner races on the all weather! We're used to that sort of margin (and more) for the Grand National but not on a Tuesday night at Wolverhampton. And yet if a punter tried to manipulate a market in the same way bookmakers would cry like babies!
Peanuts: what's the likelihood of Mountainous starting now?
Next forfeit stage tomorrow Chief so we'll know more then. Mountainous is one of 7 allotted 10.01 and priority among them will be determined initially by their Official Ratings prevailing at Declarations on 7 April. With virtually all preps completed, there's been mixed developments for Mountainous. The good news is that, despite a poor run in the GN Trial, Mountainous' OR is unchanged at 142 but 2 others with 10.01 (Benbens and Bally Beaufort) have seen their ORs dropped, so they will rank below him. However, though it won't be confirmed until tomorrow, Cause of Causes will certainly be raised after his strong win in the Kim Muir. We'll have to see whether Midnight Prayer maintains his OR after an OK run in the same race. If he does, like Mountainous, he'll be one of 4 allotted 10.01 and with an OR of 142. For those with the same allotted weights and same ORs at Decs, there will be a ballot. Worst case is that he'd need 30 of the currently-standing top 70 entries to come out (Long Run retired yesterday so that's one gone!). Ordinarily that would seem unlikely but there are quite a number also entered for the Irish National on 28 Mar - unlikely many, if any, will run in both. We might have to wait until Confirmation stage on 4 Apr to get a serious idea. It could all be moot, of course, if Kerry Lee is looking for soft ground.
OK, for the most part, all preps run. Time to crunch the numbers - this year, as said earlier, using my stripped back model. Has to be low conviction while the post-2012 sample grows but, hey ho, I'll take it one race at a time.
MANY CLOUDS (9y-o, carrying 11-10): best price 9/1
Winner last year, carrying 11-09 – more weight than any GN winner since the peerless Red Rum in 1974. That year was also the last time that a horse achieved back-to-back GN wins, though both Comply Or Die (2009) and Hedgehunter (2006) were runners-up in their attempts.
However, 2 reasons why MC has a better chance than most of making history on 9 April.
Firstly, having won last year with only 1 lb less than the maximum, despite being top-weight now, no returning GN winner in recent times has had as small an additional burden to carry.
Secondly, though Pineau De Re was the first GN winner to win another race since Bindaree (2002-03) when winning a Class 2 hurdle in December, MC joined him in winning imperiously a Listed 3m chase against useful opposition in his final prep. He’s run at least respectably in his other 3 runs this season (runner-up twice) and, unusually for a returning GN winner, his trainer’s been able to give him a relatively “normal” campaign. MC’s ability appears as good as ever.
Theoretically, a trend-follower could rule MC out because of the 40+ year drought in back-to-back wins but, because he's competing on near identical terms to last year, logically that’s tantamount to ruling out “tails” on the toss of a coin simply because last time it came down “tails”. One has to look at his stats as a whole and in isolation and they rank head and shoulders above those of all competition due to carry 11-00+ on 9 April.
He must be on any short-list and, barring misfortune, appears a virtual certainty to make the frame but is there something lurking down the card that could deny him at the line?
Well, there are some with GN profiles to give him a serious run for his money. They include:
SHOTGUN PADDY (50/1), MIDNIGHT PRAYER (40/1), CAUSE OF CAUSES (16/1), MENDIP EXPRESS (66/1), PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1) and MOUNTAINOUS (50/1) but, because of low weight allocations and/or going preferences, only one is a definitely intended and probable runner. That is:
VICS CANVAS (13y-o 10-06): best price 66/1 (5 places E/W)
Again, most trend-followers would eliminate him as a backable proposition without hesitation, since no horse older than 12 has won the GN since 1923. In fact none has made the first 4 home for at least 27 years.
HOWEVER, Vic is no ordinary 13 y-o:
• Chasing career less than 2 years old, he has remarkably low mileage, particularly over fences (10 chases, 31 races under Rules). The last 12y-o GN winner (Amberleigh House 2004) had 37 chases and 59 races under Rules on the clock and 2014 winner (11y-o Pineau De Re) had run in 14 chases and 34 races under Rules. Similarly, 2012 and 2013 GN winners (Neptune Collonges and Auroras Encore) were 11y-o with many more miles on the clock. Vic's been a decent hurdler (OR140) but is proving a still better chaser and has proven stamina. After a staying-on 1.5L 2nd in the Bet365 Gold Cup handicap (aka The Whitbread) over 3m5f furlongs last April, his jockey Ruby Walsh reportedly told the trainer “he doesn´t ride like a 12-year-old,…..there´s a big race in him”.
• Handles quick ground (that Bet 365 chase was on Good and run in a quick time) and testing ground. Won with ease the 2014 Cork Grand National over 3.5m on Soft in only his 4th chase and followed up with a fine close 3rd in the Paddy Power chase on Heavy.
• Handled the GN fences with aplomb when 3.75L 5th in the Becher Chase on soft ground last December. Decent correlation between GN and previous strong runs in the Becher chase:
o 2015 Saint Are (close 2nd GN, close 3rd Becher 2014) o 2010 Black Apalachi (2nd GN, won Becher 2008) o 2007 Silver Birch (Won GN, Won Becher 2004) o 2004 Amberleigh House (Won GN, Won Becher 2001 & close 2nd 2003) o 2004 Clan Royal (close 2nd GN, Won 2003 Becher)
• Nicely weighted. He lumped 11.02 in his Becher near-miss (OR148) but will carry 10.06 for the GN (OR147).
• Good strike rate - won or near-miss (<5L) >50% of his chases at 3m+
• A strong staying pedigree. Sired by Old Vic (sired GN winners Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It and runners-up Black Apalachi and Sunnyhillboy), Vic’s from the family of 1988 Irish National winner Perris Valley.
• 4 runs in the season, the last 49 days prior (an OK run at the weights, in the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase- used by many Irish runners as their GN prep) is consistent with good pre-GN campaign.
Vics’s stat score makes him at least Strong Place Potential but, depending upon the participation of others with strong profiles and the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, it’s not inconsistent with those of former GN winners - history-making indeed.
If, like me, you wish to put him on your betting slip, I recommend waiting for BetVic to go to 6 places. They currently offer him at 66/1 (4 places) and it’s unlikely that the racing “cognoscenti” will latch on to him in the meantime. Might even be a drifter nearer the race, as Swing Bill was prior to his 6th in 2013.
Official Ratings (post Cheltenham) published today.
Horses that are "well-in" in terms of prevailing OR vs. OR for GN:
Many Clouds - 1lb Silviniaco Conti - 6lbs Holywell - 4lbs The Last Samuri - 12lbs Cause of Causes - 10lbs
Cause of Causes goes to the top of those with 10-01 and needs 26 among those with more weight to come out to get a run. He will certainly be on my betting slip if he does.
Cause of causes extreme hold up tactics will be an issue didn't he stay on from out with the washing last year but was still a fence down?
Will do a write up on CoC if it looks like he'll make the cut. I agree that he is vulnerable to traffic problems but his run last year (27L 8th), with 8lbs more than he'll carry this time, was very respectable for a 7y-o. That win last week with 11.09 in the Kim Muir was a significant boost to his stat profile.
Saint Are and Shutthefrontdoor both have strong place potential but, among returning runners, CoC has the best chance (according to my model) of denying Many Clouds. But still not the best chance of all.........come on EMMA, give him a run
Cause of causes extreme hold up tactics will be an issue didn't he stay on from out with the washing last year but was still a fence down?
Actually, you could have said the same about Saint Are after he was a never nearer 49L 9th in 2013 ["In rear, some headway 25th (2nd Valentines), never a factor"] also, significantly, as a 7y-o. Missed the race in 2014 but was unlucky not to win it last year.
Don Poli Valseur Lido Foxrock Sam Winner Lord Windermere Long Run Bears Affair Mendip Express Mon Parrain Shotgun Paddy (.....silly cow) Benbens Our Father Broadway Buffalo Gray Hession Operating Competitive Edge Rathlin
CoC needs another 16 to come out to get a run. Mountainous, Midnight Prayer and Royale Knight will need between 17 and 20 to come out to get in.
Notable that 12 of those above CoC in the weights are also entered for the Irish National on 28 March.
Blimey, looking at the lowest on the card after this 2nd forfeit stage to make the cut in the last 6 GNs (47~52), there's little chance of any with 10-01 getting a run.
In fact, all of those with 10.02 could easily miss out.
They include:
2014 GN winner - Pineau De Re 2015 GN 4th - Alvarado 2015 Becher Chase winner - Highland Lodge
Royale Knight (last year's 6th) and Double Seven (2014 3rd), aswell as double Welsh National winner Mountainous (with a 10lb hike on OR), all on 10-01 - forget about it.
I imagine that being #56 on the list and with no further forfeit stage until after the Irish National, it has to be a possibility that Gordon Elliott thinks about Fairyhouse for Cause Of Causes if he's come out of Cheltenham well - probably a bit soon.
We shall see how it all pans out with so many with Irish & Aintree National entries but if a winner of 2 years ago, who (just 4 months ago) was good enough to beat a 12 year drought of GN winners winning another race, isn't able to make the cut, something is very wrong with the way the race is being managed.
Hmm, not great news for those on 10.01~02, looking for 10~22 further defections. Five day stage for the Irish National next Monday saw all but 2 of the 14 with GN & Irish National entries scratched from the Fairyhouse marathon. Not all of them will be aimed at the GN (Turban likely to go for the Topham) but it's notable that Cause Of Causes was kept in the Irish National - Elliott perhaps figuring that he's unlikely to make the cut for Aintree. That would mean Midnight Prayer and Mountainous, among others, also missing out. Those on 10.02 (incl Pineau De Re, Highland Lodge, Alvarado and Perfect Candidate) are now really sweating on a run, with only 1 above them holding an Irish National entry (Living Next Door). Since PdR (+6lbs), Highland Lodge (+6lbs) and Alvarado (+8lbs) all had their ORs increased for the GN, they will (presumably) rank below at least 2 of the other 3 with 10.02 and will need at least 12~16 to come out - but 12 is the most that has defected from the top of the card after this stage in the last 6 years.
2012: Sunnyhillboy wins the Kim Muir by 4.5L with 11.11 (OR142). The Racing Post give his win a rating of 153. He is 10lbs "well-in" for the GN, carries 10.05 and is number #26 on the racecard. He is beaten by a nose.
2016: Cause Of Causes wins the Kim Muir by 12L with 11.09 (OR142). His win gets a RP Rating of 156. He is 10lbs "well-in" for the GN (based on Irish rating, 13lbs well-in based on what Phil Smith would raise him) due to carry 10.01 and will be lucky to be a Reserve.
The character of the GN is being profoundly altered and not, IMO, for the better.
Let's take just one of the silly entries by higher-rated horses - fine racehorses in their time and under their preferred conditions but not suited to this marathon. One of Mullins' 5 entries is On His Own. He has more weight to carry than in either of his 2 previous GNs (the last 3 years ago), in which he Fell both times - the second when palpably out of gas 6 fences from home. He has NEVER won beyond 25f in 9 attempts and his record in 5 attempts at 3.5m+ chases reads: PFF7U. His owner has a more fancied runner in the shape of Boston Bob. So WHY IS ON HIS OWN RUNNING? Well the owner seems to regard it as a swansong before retirement - let's hope he gets the chance. How about Mullins' reasoning? Could it by any chance have anything to do with his attempt to become Champion British Trainer? Surely only a cynic could imagine that, even if he thought that On His Own is an improbable winner, at least he'd rule out one lighter-weighted rival for his other runners......................So, just call me a cynic.
Comments
PS It's a vicious lie it said Lay Ballabriggs in 2011
All these restrictions allow the bookies' PR men to claim "we never close accounts".
With the notable but unsurprising exception of MANY CLOUDS, no runner with 11.00+ has the stats to win this GN.
Bookmakers, like any other commercial operation, are in it to make profit. They will restrict customers where they believe, following an analysis of their business, that they are unlikely to make a profit in the long run. Whether a customer is winning or losing is of secondary importance - it is the nature of their business that will determine the bookmaker's stance. If a customer gives a good mix of business then winning or losing is irrelevant as the bookmaker knows that in the long run the customer is likely to lose (or at least the bookmaker will get some of those losses back) - and if they win then good luck to them. However if a customer is highly selective e.g. they only ever bet on maiden 2-y-o races in Ireland, then whether or not they are winning right now will not determine how quickly they will be restricted.
With very competitive pricing, enhanced place terms and promotions it is usual for bookmakers to lose on the National, and they expect and accept this as it is a very good customer recruitment tool. A loss leader is every sense.
For example, the big firms send money to the track allegedly to reflect their positions and the SP is reflected accordingly. Except the same firms have frequently been caught with their trousers down for creating SPs of 150% - for 8 runner races on the all weather! We're used to that sort of margin (and more) for the Grand National but not on a Tuesday night at Wolverhampton. And yet if a punter tried to manipulate a market in the same way bookmakers would cry like babies!
Mountainous is one of 7 allotted 10.01 and priority among them will be determined initially by their Official Ratings prevailing at Declarations on 7 April.
With virtually all preps completed, there's been mixed developments for Mountainous.
The good news is that, despite a poor run in the GN Trial, Mountainous' OR is unchanged at 142 but 2 others with 10.01 (Benbens and Bally Beaufort) have seen their ORs dropped, so they will rank below him.
However, though it won't be confirmed until tomorrow, Cause of Causes will certainly be raised after his strong win in the Kim Muir. We'll have to see whether Midnight Prayer maintains his OR after an OK run in the same race. If he does, like Mountainous, he'll be one of 4 allotted 10.01 and with an OR of 142.
For those with the same allotted weights and same ORs at Decs, there will be a ballot.
Worst case is that he'd need 30 of the currently-standing top 70 entries to come out (Long Run retired yesterday so that's one gone!). Ordinarily that would seem unlikely but there are quite a number also entered for the Irish National on 28 Mar - unlikely many, if any, will run in both. We might have to wait until Confirmation stage on 4 Apr to get a serious idea.
It could all be moot, of course, if Kerry Lee is looking for soft ground.
MANY CLOUDS (9y-o, carrying 11-10): best price 9/1
Winner last year, carrying 11-09 – more weight than any GN winner since the peerless Red Rum in 1974. That year was also the last time that a horse achieved back-to-back GN wins, though both Comply Or Die (2009) and Hedgehunter (2006) were runners-up in their attempts.
However, 2 reasons why MC has a better chance than most of making history on 9 April.
Firstly, having won last year with only 1 lb less than the maximum, despite being top-weight now, no returning GN winner in recent times has had as small an additional burden to carry.
Secondly, though Pineau De Re was the first GN winner to win another race since Bindaree (2002-03) when winning a Class 2 hurdle in December, MC joined him in winning imperiously a Listed 3m chase against useful opposition in his final prep. He’s run at least respectably in his other 3 runs this season (runner-up twice) and, unusually for a returning GN winner, his trainer’s been able to give him a relatively “normal” campaign. MC’s ability appears as good as ever.
Theoretically, a trend-follower could rule MC out because of the 40+ year drought in back-to-back wins but, because he's competing on near identical terms to last year, logically that’s tantamount to ruling out “tails” on the toss of a coin simply because last time it came down “tails”. One has to look at his stats as a whole and in isolation and they rank head and shoulders above those of all competition due to carry 11-00+ on 9 April.
He must be on any short-list and, barring misfortune, appears a virtual certainty to make the frame but is there something lurking down the card that could deny him at the line?
Well, there are some with GN profiles to give him a serious run for his money. They include:
SHOTGUN PADDY (50/1), MIDNIGHT PRAYER (40/1), CAUSE OF CAUSES (16/1), MENDIP EXPRESS (66/1), PERFECT CANDIDATE (66/1) and MOUNTAINOUS (50/1) but, because of low weight allocations and/or going preferences, only one is a definitely intended and probable runner. That is:
VICS CANVAS (13y-o 10-06): best price 66/1 (5 places E/W)
Again, most trend-followers would eliminate him as a backable proposition without hesitation, since no horse older than 12 has won the GN since 1923. In fact none has made the first 4 home for at least 27 years.
HOWEVER, Vic is no ordinary 13 y-o:
• Chasing career less than 2 years old, he has remarkably low mileage, particularly over fences (10 chases, 31 races under Rules). The last 12y-o GN winner (Amberleigh House 2004) had 37 chases and 59 races under Rules on the clock and 2014 winner (11y-o Pineau De Re) had run in 14 chases and 34 races under Rules. Similarly, 2012 and 2013 GN winners (Neptune Collonges and Auroras Encore) were 11y-o with many more miles on the clock. Vic's been a decent hurdler (OR140) but is proving a still better chaser and has proven stamina. After a staying-on 1.5L 2nd in the Bet365 Gold Cup handicap (aka The Whitbread) over 3m5f furlongs last April, his jockey Ruby Walsh reportedly told the trainer “he doesn´t ride like a 12-year-old,…..there´s a big race in him”.
• Handles quick ground (that Bet 365 chase was on Good and run in a quick time) and testing ground. Won with ease the 2014 Cork Grand National over 3.5m on Soft in only his 4th chase and followed up with a fine close 3rd in the Paddy Power chase on Heavy.
• Handled the GN fences with aplomb when 3.75L 5th in the Becher Chase on soft ground last December. Decent correlation between GN and previous strong runs in the Becher chase:
o 2015 Saint Are (close 2nd GN, close 3rd Becher 2014)
o 2010 Black Apalachi (2nd GN, won Becher 2008)
o 2007 Silver Birch (Won GN, Won Becher 2004)
o 2004 Amberleigh House (Won GN, Won Becher 2001 & close 2nd 2003)
o 2004 Clan Royal (close 2nd GN, Won 2003 Becher)
• Nicely weighted. He lumped 11.02 in his Becher near-miss (OR148) but will carry 10.06 for the GN (OR147).
• Good strike rate - won or near-miss (<5L) >50% of his chases at 3m+
• A strong staying pedigree. Sired by Old Vic (sired GN winners Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It and runners-up Black Apalachi and Sunnyhillboy), Vic’s from the family of 1988 Irish National winner Perris Valley.
• 4 runs in the season, the last 49 days prior (an OK run at the weights, in the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase- used by many Irish runners as their GN prep) is consistent with good pre-GN campaign.
Vics’s stat score makes him at least Strong Place Potential but, depending upon the participation of others with strong profiles and the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, it’s not inconsistent with those of former GN winners - history-making indeed.
If, like me, you wish to put him on your betting slip, I recommend waiting for BetVic to go to 6 places. They currently offer him at 66/1 (4 places) and it’s unlikely that the racing “cognoscenti” will latch on to him in the meantime. Might even be a drifter nearer the race, as Swing Bill was prior to his 6th in 2013.
Horses that are "well-in" in terms of prevailing OR vs. OR for GN:
Many Clouds - 1lb
Silviniaco Conti - 6lbs
Holywell - 4lbs
The Last Samuri - 12lbs
Cause of Causes - 10lbs
Cause of Causes goes to the top of those with 10-01 and needs 26 among those with more weight to come out to get a run. He will certainly be on my betting slip if he does.
I agree that he is vulnerable to traffic problems but his run last year (27L 8th), with 8lbs more than he'll carry this time, was very respectable for a 7y-o.
That win last week with 11.09 in the Kim Muir was a significant boost to his stat profile.
Saint Are and Shutthefrontdoor both have strong place potential but, among returning runners, CoC has the best chance (according to my model) of denying Many Clouds. But still not the best chance of all.........come on EMMA, give him a run
Missed the race in 2014 but was unlucky not to win it last year.
Don Poli
Valseur Lido
Foxrock
Sam Winner
Lord Windermere
Long Run
Bears Affair
Mendip Express
Mon Parrain
Shotgun Paddy (.....silly cow)
Benbens
Our Father
Broadway Buffalo
Gray Hession
Operating
Competitive Edge
Rathlin
CoC needs another 16 to come out to get a run.
Mountainous, Midnight Prayer and Royale Knight will need between 17 and 20 to come out to get in.
Notable that 12 of those above CoC in the weights are also entered for the Irish National on 28 March.
In fact, all of those with 10.02 could easily miss out.
They include:
2014 GN winner - Pineau De Re
2015 GN 4th - Alvarado
2015 Becher Chase winner - Highland Lodge
Royale Knight (last year's 6th) and Double Seven (2014 3rd), aswell as double Welsh National winner Mountainous (with a 10lb hike on OR), all on 10-01 - forget about it.
Bloody ridiculous.
We shall see how it all pans out with so many with Irish & Aintree National entries but if a winner of 2 years ago, who (just 4 months ago) was good enough to beat a 12 year drought of GN winners winning another race, isn't able to make the cut, something is very wrong with the way the race is being managed.
Micko70 on OLBG, whose approach I have a lot of respect for, sees it as follows (taking only those with 10-01+):
Goonyella (NAP)
Holywell, Gallant Oscar
Many Clouds, The Druids Nephew, Mountainous
There you go - 2 dyed-in-the-wool trend followers studying the same race and same contenders. What do they say? Lies, damned lies and statistics
Five day stage for the Irish National next Monday saw all but 2 of the 14 with GN & Irish National entries scratched from the Fairyhouse marathon.
Not all of them will be aimed at the GN (Turban likely to go for the Topham) but it's notable that Cause Of Causes was kept in the Irish National - Elliott perhaps figuring that he's unlikely to make the cut for Aintree. That would mean Midnight Prayer and Mountainous, among others, also missing out.
Those on 10.02 (incl Pineau De Re, Highland Lodge, Alvarado and Perfect Candidate) are now really sweating on a run, with only 1 above them holding an Irish National entry (Living Next Door).
Since PdR (+6lbs), Highland Lodge (+6lbs) and Alvarado (+8lbs) all had their ORs increased for the GN, they will (presumably) rank below at least 2 of the other 3 with 10.02 and will need at least 12~16 to come out - but 12 is the most that has defected from the top of the card after this stage in the last 6 years.
good little guide there.
i will be backing goonyella and probably just pick a couple of randoms on the day
shame it looks like cause of causes wont get in.
2012: Sunnyhillboy wins the Kim Muir by 4.5L with 11.11 (OR142). The Racing Post give his win a rating of 153. He is 10lbs "well-in" for the GN, carries 10.05 and is number #26 on the racecard. He is beaten by a nose.
2016: Cause Of Causes wins the Kim Muir by 12L with 11.09 (OR142). His win gets a RP Rating of 156. He is 10lbs "well-in" for the GN (based on Irish rating, 13lbs well-in based on what Phil Smith would raise him) due to carry 10.01 and will be lucky to be a Reserve.
The character of the GN is being profoundly altered and not, IMO, for the better.
Let's take just one of the silly entries by higher-rated horses - fine racehorses in their time and under their preferred conditions but not suited to this marathon.
One of Mullins' 5 entries is On His Own. He has more weight to carry than in either of his 2 previous GNs (the last 3 years ago), in which he Fell both times - the second when palpably out of gas 6 fences from home.
He has NEVER won beyond 25f in 9 attempts and his record in 5 attempts at 3.5m+ chases reads: PFF7U.
His owner has a more fancied runner in the shape of Boston Bob. So WHY IS ON HIS OWN RUNNING?
Well the owner seems to regard it as a swansong before retirement - let's hope he gets the chance. How about Mullins' reasoning? Could it by any chance have anything to do with his attempt to become Champion British Trainer? Surely only a cynic could imagine that, even if he thought that On His Own is an improbable winner, at least he'd rule out one lighter-weighted rival for his other runners......................So, just call me a cynic.