Even though I've backed Many Clouds and said he would win straight after last years race there is still a part of me that doesn't want him to win because of Red Rum's record.Anyway I must stop getting sentimental about a horse as we know I have a bad reputation as regards horses on a deathwatch thread somewhere......................
Sort of agree, KK, but even if MC wins I don't believe it even begins to threaten a 1, 1, 2, 2, 1 record - nothing ever will. Rummy is and will always remain atop of the GN Pantheon.
Even more so when one considers the reduced field size and "refined" fences that have made the GN much less of a test. Even if one has to take into account the fact that, mainly due to the aforementioned changes, we probably see a better class of field overall contesting the GN these days.
Even though I've backed Many Clouds and said he would win straight after last years race there is still a part of me that doesn't want him to win because of Red Rum's record.Anyway I must stop getting sentimental about a horse as we know I have a bad reputation as regards horses on a deathwatch thread somewhere......................
Sort of agree, KK, but even if MC wins I don't believe it even begins to threaten a 1, 1, 2, 2, 1 record - nothing ever will. Rummy is and will always remain atop of the GN Pantheon.
Even more so when one considers the reduced field size and "refined" fences that have made the GN much less of a test. Even if one has to take into account the fact that, mainly due to the aforementioned changes, we probably see a better class of field overall contesting the GN these days.
If they'd just make 2nd Bechers the finishing line, they could all be GN heroes
Anyone have any idea who the once a year mob will be backing this year? With no Tony McCoy or famous owners there doesn't seem to be much to attract the attention of the 50p each way brigade.
Anyone have any idea who the once a year mob will be backing this year? With no Tony McCoy or famous owners there doesn't seem to be much to attract the attention of the 50p each way brigade.
Ruby Walsh's mount is sure to have a big following, plus Leighton Aspell (Many Clouds) going for 3 in a row, which would be a first in the history of the race. (Unless I'm mistaken, which is entirely possible)
Just a mention you might want to have a look at Peanuts if of any interest to you or might even know of the site? A bloke I use to have a horse with has a site called" Racing To Profit" and his name is Josh Wright who is a stats and trends man,today he has put up his Grand National stats and trends if you fancied a read? I'm not plugging his site but is a very good tipster and shows a good profit but is also just a very good read plus it has a forum to it.
Had a brief look killer. Very impressive array of factors and analysis indeed. Seriously good stuff and it will be interesting to see the selections. Many thanks for the “heads up”.
Of the plethora of stat-screens out there, I particularly like those, like RtP’s, that consider horses placed rather than just winners.
It’s also more “correct” statistically by considering the representation of each factor category (e.g. AGE – 8y-o 1 winner and 2 places from 32 runners [9.4%], 9y-o 0 winner and 5 places from 51 [9.8%], 10y-o 1 winner and 6 places from 54 [13%] and 11y-o 3 winners and 6 places from 29 [31%] and 12 y-o 0 winner and 1 place from 23 [4.3%]). Most stat-screens (mine included I have to confess) don’t consider representation in a systematic way (though my methodology has other characteristics that tend to compensate, at least to some degree).
The one tiny hole I would pick is that, like every other GN stat-screen I’ve ever seen, it takes a literal definition of “Win” in a runner’s record. It’s easy for me as an amateur, one-trick pony to be “left-field” on this point but, for an extreme trip such as the GN, I think it’s really important to give some credit (as my model does) for near-misses in a runner’s chase record. If you don’t do so, it can make a HUGE difference to the key “tests” and, accordingly, to selections.
For example, an important conclusion and a “point to note” of the Racing to Profit analysis are:
• Has WON over a minimum of 25f (one of the Winning profile stats)
• Previous win over 3m5f or further a negative (a point to note)
Now, from the 5 GNs that comprise its sample for the analysis, let’s consider:
• 2013 winner Aurora’s Encore – had never won at a trip further than 25f. BUT, are we really to conclude that finishing 2nd, a Head behind the winner of the 4m Scottish National a year before was irrelevant to his GN profile?
• 2012 winner Neptune Collonges – had never won at a trip further than 25.5f. BUT, 2 months before the GN had been 2nd, 0.25L behind the winner of the 28f GN Trial (a sufficiently strong run to give him his highest RPR for 3 years and prompt an Official Rating rise to make him 5lbs well-in) - irrelevant to his GN profile?
Ironically, these 2 are the ones among the 5 GN winners that drag the RtP Win stat test back to 25f because Ballabriggs, Pineau De Re and Many Clouds had all won at a minimum of 26f.
As for indicating that there is a maximum trip for the sweet spot, one just has to consider: can it really be logical to relegate the chances in the 34.5f GN of a runner with form at 29f and beyond?
To further illustrate the point. 22 of the last 26 GN winners (excl Red Marauder) had form at 28f+ (10 had actually won at 29f+). Of the 4 others, 3 had a chase win or near-miss (<5L) at 26f+ (and had either done so on testing going or carrying 12lbs+ more than they carried in the GN) and Montys Pass had never run at 26f+ (but had form over the GN fences and carried 10.07 in the GN).
So, setting the bar at 25f (unqualified) rather than 28f+ or (with additional stamina-related conditions) 26f+, fails to screen out runners whose credentials IMO should at least be relegated and, ultimately, can make a massive difference to selections.
Most notably this year, SILVINIACO CONTI.
His comparative form at 21~26.5f is examined in an earlier post. There’s no doubting the high quality stats that SC presents and so, if you set the “Trip” bar at 25f, he will almost certainly end up a selection. I may be proved a complete fool but the Trip is the acid test that he fails, according to my model, given his absolute GN weight and his relatively moderate form at beyond 25f.
Some great points there Peanuts and THAT horse could haunt us or prove us completely right............I could certainly never back SC.Hope you have a good day Peanuts I'm off to Fontwell to see my two horses run
As things stand with stated intentions among the current top 40, likely to be scratched on Monday are Third Intention and Living Next Door. Turban is thought more likely to go for the Topham.
If so, that now gives a run to all of those with 10.05 (including Saint Are, though as the best-rated of them, he only needs 1 to defect), given than Spring Heeled and Katkeau (both 10.05) are also unlikely to take part.
With most of the others at the top of the card seemingly intended runners, it is looking dicey even for Bishops Road (10lbs well-in) on 10.03 making the cut. He would need 3 (in addition to all 5 above) to come out though should make one of the Reserves.
Looks like my 66/1 outsider Perfect Candidate (10.02) will need 5 or 6 (in addition to the 5 above) to come out to get a run. Pineau De is at least one spot and Alvarado at least 3 spots below PC in the ratings. Hmm, not looking good for any of them.
Never mind, at least Black Thunder's owners can cash in on having a horse rated high enough to auction with a guaranteed run
Peanuts, where does your model dismiss The Last Samuri? I watched his last two races and he looks like he's got bags of stamina.
It doesn't dismiss him Gary - it's simply that its tot-up of his aggregate stats doesn't put him among its best-rated chances:
Positives: 75% win or near-miss rate in chases (all 3m+) Good win post-weights
Negatives: Age: OK but not ideal <10 chase runs < 7 chase wins or near-misses No Class 1 3m+ or Class 2 3.5m+ chase win
In short, my model figures, mainly because of lack of experience and Class 1 form, that he's not as close a fit with past GN winners and near-missers as a number of other runners. It takes a special CV for an 8y-o to win the GN. But it ain't a crystal ball. Post-2012, the character of the race appears to have changed so I'm using a stripped-back model and it's a low conviction analysis. If you fancy him, don't let me and my model deter you..
Guys, my mate owns the Druids nephew and offered me a leg for a fair price before Cheltenham last year which I declined because I'd just bought a share in another flat horse . He then won at Cheltenham and would have won last years national had he not have slipped ( not fell) when leading 3 from home . They have laid him out for this years national and I think he will win - But there again I support Charlton so don't be too optimistic !!!!
Have already backed him at 25/1 Albury,the 9lb rise from last year is my only worry.He did look like the winner but he still had two to jump and the long run in so who knows what would of happened?Its all part of The Grand National puzzle and I was racing yesterday where someone was trying to convince me Siviniaco Conti is thrown in and can't lose.We had a firm and fair disagreement and I'm sure they are getting the white coat ready for him now............You should of been there Peanuts,it's all good fun.
Turftrax track report for the GN and Mildmay courses as on Thursday mid-day shows GN course predominantly Good to Soft (5.7 going stick - notoriously unreliable) BBC weather forecast for Aintree shows heavy rain today, thunderstorm Monday, heavy rain Wednesday, light rain showers Thursday and Saturday.
If this can be believed, going could be more like 2013 (proper Good to Soft) than 2015.
If so, note first 5 home in 2013 all had solid form at 29f+ (i.e. won or <5L Class 1 29f+ or 2nd~4th in Welsh or Irish National), as did the following in the 3 previous GNs run on Officially Good to Soft:
No significant change in the going at Aintree as at 5pm yesterday - National course still predominantly Good to Soft - Going-stick 5.8
Forecast remains unsettled - 4mm rain today and 7mm Wed, showers throughout meeting.
GS looking likely.
BUT IF it were to turn softer than GS, it may be worth noting that for the last 6 GNs (excl Red Marauder's) run on Soft or worse (RP's time-based going), the following either had a handicap chase win or near-miss (<5L) at 4m+ or had made the frame (1st~3rd) in the Aintree, Irish or Welsh National (last two on Soft or Hvy):
Of the 10 runners listed above that have the key stat for GS, just 4 have on their CV the key stamina stat for Soft:
MANY CLOUDS (9y-o) GOONYELLA (9y-o) RULE THE WORLD (9y-o) SAINT ARE (10y-o)
PS. None of the first 4 home in any of those 6 GNs on soft or worse were younger than 9y-o.
PPS 9y-o Shotgun Paddy would have made GS and Soft ground key stat shortlists had his trainer not been a complete burk in scratching him to run at Uttoxeter
No significant change in the going at Aintree as at 5pm yesterday - National course still predominantly Good to Soft - Going-stick 5.8
Forecast remains unsettled - 4mm rain today and 7mm Wed, showers throughout meeting.
GS looking likely.
BUT IF it were to turn softer than GS, it may be worth noting that for the last 6 GNs (excl Red Marauder's) run on Soft or worse (RP's time-based going), the following either had a handicap chase win or near-miss (<5L) at 4m+ or had made the frame (1st~3rd) in the Aintree, Irish or Welsh National (last two on Soft or Hvy):
Of the 10 runners listed above that have the key stat for GS, just 4 have on their CV the key stamina stat for Soft:
MANY CLOUDS (9y-o) GOONYELLA (9y-o) RULE THE WORLD (9y-o) SAINT ARE (10y-o)
PS. None of the first 4 home in any of those 6 GNs on soft or worse were younger than 9y-o.
PPS 9y-o Shotgun Paddy would have made GS and Soft ground key stat shortlists had his trainer not been a complete burk in scratching him to run at Uttoxeter </p>
So in other words, one of those 4 is a very good bet?
Peanuts looking through your last few posts and with some rain due each day including Saturday, I looked at the horses on your list of 10 for Soft ground. Bishops Road is very interesting for a training really having a great season can only see this shortening in price.
No significant change in the going at Aintree as at 5pm yesterday - National course still predominantly Good to Soft - Going-stick 5.8
Forecast remains unsettled - 4mm rain today and 7mm Wed, showers throughout meeting.
GS looking likely.
BUT IF it were to turn softer than GS, it may be worth noting that for the last 6 GNs (excl Red Marauder's) run on Soft or worse (RP's time-based going), the following either had a handicap chase win or near-miss (<5L) at 4m+ or had made the frame (1st~3rd) in the Aintree, Irish or Welsh National (last two on Soft or Hvy):
Of the 10 runners listed above that have the key stat for GS, just 4 have on their CV the key stamina stat for Soft:
MANY CLOUDS (9y-o) GOONYELLA (9y-o) RULE THE WORLD (9y-o) SAINT ARE (10y-o)
PS. None of the first 4 home in any of those 6 GNs on soft or worse were younger than 9y-o.
PPS 9y-o Shotgun Paddy would have made GS and Soft ground key stat shortlists had his trainer not been a complete burk in scratching him to run at Uttoxeter </p>
So in other words, one of those 4 is a very good bet?
What the stat shows, not surprisingly, is that stamina is at a premium in Soft ground GNs and those are the only 4 to have proven it by clearing the same bar that all winners of the last 6 GNs (and most 2nds and 3rds) had cleared.
My model is all about trying to improve %s in whittling down the field, but that's not the only relevant stat. For example, there's another key GN stat regarding one of those 4:
RULE THE WORLD (close 2nd in the 2015 Irish National on Soft) remains a maiden over fences and is a 2nd season novice. However, the last novice to win the GN was in 1958 and the GN record of the most recent runs by novices (including 7 that were 9 or 10 year-olds) reads: FFPFFFFF0UUUU6FPFR8
So, from a stats perspective, it's a big ask for him.
I also don't preclude an element of subjectivity once it gets to short lists.
Of the other 3, I'm very happy to have MANY CLOUDS and SAINT ARE among my 3 or 4 bets. BUT if it were proper Soft ground I would have a concern that Saint Are has never actually won on soft and doesn't appear to go as well on it as he does GS or Good. At 3m, his best chase RPR on Soft is 145 compared to 155 on Good but I've got him 5 places e/w and I'm happy with that regardless - e/w places can filled by horses finishing well adrift on Soft and Heavy ground.
Nonetheless, if it came up Soft (and we really have to wait until racing starts on Thursday to see how the ground rides), despite his dodgy jumping in two Becher Chases, I would be very tempted to have a win saver on GOONYELLA, though there's little doubt that he would be a serious market mover if the rain kept coming (could even go off favourite in that case).
It's simply too early to tell but, if the current going report and the weather forecast are accurate, it would seem most likely that the going would be Good to Soft.
One thing my model and my subjective view agree upon: barring misfortune, Many Clouds has a fantastic chance of being the first back-to-back winner for 42 years, whatever the ground.
Peanuts looking through your last few posts and with some rain due each day including Saturday, I looked at the horses on your list of 10 for Soft ground. Bishops Road is very interesting for a training really having a great season can only see this shortening in price.
Can't disagree oldbloke.
What a debut season Kerry Lee's having and she bought him from Gigginstown with the GN in mind for her owner.
Won the GN Trial very convincingly on Heavy and with a big weight (10lbs well-in for the GN). That race has a poor correlation to GN success but arguably because it's typically totally different ground.
Difficult to assess how he'll handle the occasion. Typically ridden with the pace and, given his career to date (Fell when beaten in only chase run on proper decent ground), has to be a question about his ability to stay in touch if the ground on Saturday were quicker than advertised (more often the case than not in recent years) but on proper GS or softer he's definitely on the radar screen and certainly has place potential. GS probably ideal as an 8y-o hasn't made the first 4 home in any of those last 6 GNs (excl 2001) run on Soft or Heavy.
Nine scratched at today's Confirmation Stage; They are, as expected: Carlingford Lough Third Intention Roi Du Mee Turban Living Next Door Spring Heeled Katkeau Golden Chieftain and Godsmejudge.
Saint Are makes the cut, Bishops Road needs 1 more to come out to run.
No significant change in the going at Aintree as at 5pm yesterday - National course still predominantly Good to Soft - Going-stick 5.8
Forecast remains unsettled - 4mm rain today and 7mm Wed, showers throughout meeting.
GS looking likely.
BUT IF it were to turn softer than GS, it may be worth noting that for the last 6 GNs (excl Red Marauder's) run on Soft or worse (RP's time-based going), the following either had a handicap chase win or near-miss (<5L) at 4m+ or had made the frame (1st~3rd) in the Aintree, Irish or Welsh National (last two on Soft or Hvy):
Of the 10 runners listed above that have the key stat for GS, just 4 have on their CV the key stamina stat for Soft:
MANY CLOUDS (9y-o) GOONYELLA (9y-o) RULE THE WORLD (9y-o) SAINT ARE (10y-o)
PS. None of the first 4 home in any of those 6 GNs on soft or worse were younger than 9y-o.
PPS 9y-o Shotgun Paddy would have made GS and Soft ground key stat shortlists had his trainer not been a complete burk in scratching him to run at Uttoxeter </p>
So in other words, one of those 4 is a very good bet?
What the stat shows, not surprisingly, is that stamina is at a premium in Soft ground GNs and those are the only 4 to have proven it by clearing the same bar that all winners of the last 6 GNs (and most 2nds and 3rds) had cleared.
My model is all about trying to improve %s in whittling down the field, but that's not the only relevant stat. For example, there's another key GN stat regarding one of those 4:
RULE THE WORLD (close 2nd in the 2015 Irish National on Soft) remains a maiden over fences and is a 2nd season novice. However, the last novice to win the GN was in 1958 and the GN record of the most recent runs by novices (including 7 that were 9 or 10 year-olds) reads: FFPFFFFF0UUUU6FPFR8
So, from a stats perspective, it's a big ask for him.
I also don't preclude an element of subjectivity once it gets to short lists.
Of the other 3, I'm very happy to have MANY CLOUDS and SAINT ARE among my 3 or 4 bets. BUT if it were proper Soft ground I would have a concern that Saint Are has never actually won on soft and doesn't appear to go as well on it as he does GS or Good. At 3m, his best chase RPR on Soft is 145 compared to 155 on Good but I've got him 5 places e/w and I'm happy with that regardless - e/w places can filled by horses finishing well adrift on Soft and Heavy ground.
Nonetheless, if it came up Soft (and we really have to wait until racing starts on Thursday to see how the ground rides), despite his dodgy jumping in two Becher Chases, I would be very tempted to have a win saver on GOONYELLA, though there's little doubt that he would be a serious market mover if the rain kept coming (could even go off favourite in that case).
It's simply too early to tell but, if the current going report and the weather forecast are accurate, it would seem most likely that the going would be Good to Soft.
One thing my model and my subjective view agree upon: barring misfortune, Many Clouds has a fantastic chance of being the first back-to-back winner for 42 years, whatever the ground.
Having consulted my very scientific crystal pencil sharpener, the names Many Clouds and Hadrians Approach loom large .. BUT .. wait a second.. I hear a distant whisper .. Dickie Johnson man of the moment has ridden the winner in most BIG N H races BUT he's not never ridden the G N winner after coming so close years ago on 'What's Up Boys'.. SOOOOOOO... Kruzhlinin at 20/1 or so is my errrr banker
Comments
Had a brief look killer. Very impressive array of factors and analysis indeed. Seriously good stuff and it will be interesting to see the selections. Many thanks for the “heads up”.
Of the plethora of stat-screens out there, I particularly like those, like RtP’s, that consider horses placed rather than just winners.
It’s also more “correct” statistically by considering the representation of each factor category (e.g. AGE – 8y-o 1 winner and 2 places from 32 runners [9.4%], 9y-o 0 winner and 5 places from 51 [9.8%], 10y-o 1 winner and 6 places from 54 [13%] and 11y-o 3 winners and 6 places from 29 [31%] and 12 y-o 0 winner and 1 place from 23 [4.3%]). Most stat-screens (mine included I have to confess) don’t consider representation in a systematic way (though my methodology has other characteristics that tend to compensate, at least to some degree).
The one tiny hole I would pick is that, like every other GN stat-screen I’ve ever seen, it takes a literal definition of “Win” in a runner’s record. It’s easy for me as an amateur, one-trick pony to be “left-field” on this point but, for an extreme trip such as the GN, I think it’s really important to give some credit (as my model does) for near-misses in a runner’s chase record. If you don’t do so, it can make a HUGE difference to the key “tests” and, accordingly, to selections.
For example, an important conclusion and a “point to note” of the Racing to Profit analysis are:
• Has WON over a minimum of 25f (one of the Winning profile stats)
• Previous win over 3m5f or further a negative (a point to note)
Now, from the 5 GNs that comprise its sample for the analysis, let’s consider:
• 2013 winner Aurora’s Encore – had never won at a trip further than 25f. BUT, are we really to conclude that finishing 2nd, a Head behind the winner of the 4m Scottish National a year before was irrelevant to his GN profile?
• 2012 winner Neptune Collonges – had never won at a trip further than 25.5f. BUT, 2 months before the GN had been 2nd, 0.25L behind the winner of the 28f GN Trial (a sufficiently strong run to give him his highest RPR for 3 years and prompt an Official Rating rise to make him 5lbs well-in) - irrelevant to his GN profile?
Ironically, these 2 are the ones among the 5 GN winners that drag the RtP Win stat test back to 25f because Ballabriggs, Pineau De Re and Many Clouds had all won at a minimum of 26f.
As for indicating that there is a maximum trip for the sweet spot, one just has to consider: can it really be logical to relegate the chances in the 34.5f GN of a runner with form at 29f and beyond?
To further illustrate the point. 22 of the last 26 GN winners (excl Red Marauder) had form at 28f+ (10 had actually won at 29f+). Of the 4 others, 3 had a chase win or near-miss (<5L) at 26f+ (and had either done so on testing going or carrying 12lbs+ more than they carried in the GN) and Montys Pass had never run at 26f+ (but had form over the GN fences and carried 10.07 in the GN).
So, setting the bar at 25f (unqualified) rather than 28f+ or (with additional stamina-related conditions) 26f+, fails to screen out runners whose credentials IMO should at least be relegated and, ultimately, can make a massive difference to selections.
Most notably this year, SILVINIACO CONTI.
His comparative form at 21~26.5f is examined in an earlier post. There’s no doubting the high quality stats that SC presents and so, if you set the “Trip” bar at 25f, he will almost certainly end up a selection. I may be proved a complete fool but the Trip is the acid test that he fails, according to my model, given his absolute GN weight and his relatively moderate form at beyond 25f.
We shall see.
Backed DN last year when travelling great before slipping on landing.
If so, that now gives a run to all of those with 10.05 (including Saint Are, though as the best-rated of them, he only needs 1 to defect), given than Spring Heeled and Katkeau (both 10.05) are also unlikely to take part.
With most of the others at the top of the card seemingly intended runners, it is looking dicey even for Bishops Road (10lbs well-in) on 10.03 making the cut. He would need 3 (in addition to all 5 above) to come out though should make one of the Reserves.
Looks like my 66/1 outsider Perfect Candidate (10.02) will need 5 or 6 (in addition to the 5 above) to come out to get a run. Pineau De is at least one spot and Alvarado at least 3 spots below PC in the ratings. Hmm, not looking good for any of them.
Never mind, at least Black Thunder's owners can cash in on having a horse rated high enough to auction with a guaranteed run
1. When is it?
2. Who is gonna win?
Positives:
75% win or near-miss rate in chases (all 3m+)
Good win post-weights
Negatives:
Age: OK but not ideal
<10 chase runs
< 7 chase wins or near-misses
No Class 1 3m+ or Class 2 3.5m+ chase win
In short, my model figures, mainly because of lack of experience and Class 1 form, that he's not as close a fit with past GN winners and near-missers as a number of other runners. It takes a special CV for an 8y-o to win the GN.
But it ain't a crystal ball. Post-2012, the character of the race appears to have changed so I'm using a stripped-back model and it's a low conviction analysis.
If you fancy him, don't let me and my model deter you..
Good luck.
BBC weather forecast for Aintree shows heavy rain today, thunderstorm Monday, heavy rain Wednesday, light rain showers Thursday and Saturday.
If this can be believed, going could be more like 2013 (proper Good to Soft) than 2015.
If so, note first 5 home in 2013 all had solid form at 29f+ (i.e. won or <5L Class 1 29f+ or 2nd~4th in Welsh or Irish National), as did the following in the 3 previous GNs run on Officially Good to Soft:
2009: 1st, 2nd 3rd
2006: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2005: 1st, 2nd
The only entries (more or less sure to get a run) this year with such form at 29f+:
MANY CLOUDS
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR
GOONYELLA
LE REVE
RULE THE WORLD
JUST A PAR
VICS CANVAS
HADRIANS APPROACH
SAINT ARE
BISHOPS ROAD
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree
Geraghty likely to ride Shutthefrontdoor.
Roi Du Mee also a non-runner
Ballycasey may head for Topham with Turban.
With the other 5 likely non-runners mentioned above, that will give Bishops Road a run.
Perfect Candidate needs at least 2 more to come out.
Forecast remains unsettled - 4mm rain today and 7mm Wed, showers throughout meeting.
GS looking likely.
BUT IF it were to turn softer than GS, it may be worth noting that for the last 6 GNs (excl Red Marauder's) run on Soft or worse (RP's time-based going), the following either had a handicap chase win or near-miss (<5L) at 4m+ or had made the frame (1st~3rd) in the Aintree, Irish or Welsh National (last two on Soft or Hvy):
2009 (sft): 1st, 2nd [11-06]
2006 (sft): 1st, 2nd [11-12], 3rd
1998 (hvy): 1st, 2nd [12-00], 3rd
1994 (hvy): 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
1989 (hvy): 1st, 2nd, 3rd [11-10], 5th, 6th
1988 (hvy): 1st, 4th
Of the 10 runners listed above that have the key stat for GS, just 4 have on their CV the key stamina stat for Soft:
MANY CLOUDS (9y-o)
GOONYELLA (9y-o)
RULE THE WORLD (9y-o)
SAINT ARE (10y-o)
PS. None of the first 4 home in any of those 6 GNs on soft or worse were younger than 9y-o.
PPS 9y-o Shotgun Paddy would have made GS and Soft ground key stat shortlists had his trainer not been a complete burk in scratching him to run at Uttoxeter
As at 8.30am this morning, the going on the National course is described as Soft (GS places)
My model is all about trying to improve %s in whittling down the field, but that's not the only relevant stat. For example, there's another key GN stat regarding one of those 4:
RULE THE WORLD (close 2nd in the 2015 Irish National on Soft) remains a maiden over fences and is a 2nd season novice. However, the last novice to win the GN was in 1958 and the GN record of the most recent runs by novices (including 7 that were 9 or 10 year-olds) reads: FFPFFFFF0UUUU6FPFR8
So, from a stats perspective, it's a big ask for him.
I also don't preclude an element of subjectivity once it gets to short lists.
Of the other 3, I'm very happy to have MANY CLOUDS and SAINT ARE among my 3 or 4 bets. BUT if it were proper Soft ground I would have a concern that Saint Are has never actually won on soft and doesn't appear to go as well on it as he does GS or Good. At 3m, his best chase RPR on Soft is 145 compared to 155 on Good but I've got him 5 places e/w and I'm happy with that regardless - e/w places can filled by horses finishing well adrift on Soft and Heavy ground.
Nonetheless, if it came up Soft (and we really have to wait until racing starts on Thursday to see how the ground rides), despite his dodgy jumping in two Becher Chases, I would be very tempted to have a win saver on GOONYELLA, though there's little doubt that he would be a serious market mover if the rain kept coming (could even go off favourite in that case).
It's simply too early to tell but, if the current going report and the weather forecast are accurate, it would seem most likely that the going would be Good to Soft.
One thing my model and my subjective view agree upon: barring misfortune, Many Clouds has a fantastic chance of being the first back-to-back winner for 42 years, whatever the ground.
What a debut season Kerry Lee's having and she bought him from Gigginstown with the GN in mind for her owner.
Won the GN Trial very convincingly on Heavy and with a big weight (10lbs well-in for the GN). That race has a poor correlation to GN success but arguably because it's typically totally different ground.
Difficult to assess how he'll handle the occasion. Typically ridden with the pace and, given his career to date (Fell when beaten in only chase run on proper decent ground), has to be a question about his ability to stay in touch if the ground on Saturday were quicker than advertised (more often the case than not in recent years) but on proper GS or softer he's definitely on the radar screen and certainly has place potential. GS probably ideal as an 8y-o hasn't made the first 4 home in any of those last 6 GNs (excl 2001) run on Soft or Heavy.
Confirmation stage is today. More anon.
They are, as expected:
Carlingford Lough
Third Intention
Roi Du Mee
Turban
Living Next Door
Spring Heeled
Katkeau
Golden Chieftain and
Godsmejudge.
Saint Are makes the cut, Bishops Road needs 1 more to come out to run.
Reckon he'd be lucky to get in!