"New ABC poll suggests Trump has a one-point lead nationwide, 46% to 45% for Clinton."
A lot can happen between an election and an inauguration.
Yes, he has that trial for alleged rape in December.
Who is Mike Pence ?
Homophobic right wing Christian.
538 still has this around a 5 point race, which is what I think it really is. I haven't gone into too much detail on this because it's pretty "Inside Baseball," but Hillary Clinton's ground game is far, far, far superior to Trumps. That means her local organization, particularly in swing states, and their ability to "get out the vote" and get people who may be wavering on who to vote for or whether to vote to go to the polls. Trump's campaign has almost none of that, which is pretty unprecedented in the modern era. He is relying on the Republican parties' efforts, and needless to say he's not the most popular man in the Republican party at the moment.
That "ground game" could be worth up to a point or two in the national election. But it's also important to remember that the person with the most popular votes isn't the one who wins, it's the one who wins the most electoral college votes, which are done state by state. Those swing states are where her organization is strongest, and it's why I'm not particularly worried about Donald Trump becoming the next president.
To give you an idea where we stand, if Clinton holds on to all the states where she has a five point+ lead (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) and wins North Carolina, even if Trumps wins every other swing state (including ones where Clinton has a health lead--Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada), Hillary Clinton is still the next President of the United States.
Also worth noting that the campaigns themselves usually have the best polls. I think that if the Clinton campaign were seriously worried, there would a feeling of panic. But there isn't, and she continues to attack swing states like Florida and Nevada instead of going back to states like Michigan and Wisconsin which means her campaign feels confident those states are in the bag.
For the "former Democratic Operative" perspect, I recommend the "Keepin it 1600" podcast. This is not neutral, this is done by a group of guys who were formerly on the campaign/in the cabinet of Barrack Obama (and one who was on the Hillary '08 campaign). But their take on the James Comey thing is quite good, and they get good reporters on as guests (Pete Williams this week, explaining the different Hillary Clinton emails).
Is Clinton THAT bad? I can't imagine a single scenario where she's a worse President than, say, Dubya
In my opinion no, but I am still very angry about the George W. Bush years.
It's worth noting that because of party loyalties, any Republican running has a basement (i.e. they are highly unlikely to get less than) around 39%. How we get to that number is complicated and it's not the most scientific.
I think it's somewhere around 42% of the American public is registered as a Republican or strongly-leaning Republicans leaning independents. That number might be as high as 44% depending on how you define "leaning independents."
I think Trump is hitting (I might be this wrong) 85% of registered Republicans, maybe higher. He has then picked up some white working class non-college educated whites, particularly in the rust belt, who used to be Democrat, but he hasn't changed the electoral map as he claimed he would do in the primary. All-in-all, if he hits the 44.9% of the popular vote 538 currently projects (and they're more liberal about his chances than many), then he'll have done slightly better than par.
I think more than anything is speaks to the terrible partisan nature of our country (and I'm not exempt from that). I also think it speaks very poorly about our attitudes toward women and ethnic minorities. But I don't know that it's so much that Trump is doing THAT well as it is that we are an incredibly divided nation.
325 million people....and somehow these two make 'the final'.
Unbelievable Geoff!
I said months ago about the stupidity of Americans and i got flagged.
This presidential race I believe proves me right
I have now been flagged twice on this thread . Will the wanker who has done this please inbox me And tell me why.
Keyboard warrior wanker
Far be it from me to point out the irony in this post, but aren't you basically doing the same thing yourself? Not trying to start an argument, just saying it seems you're being a bit of a keyboard warrior too, no?
Comments
Who is Mike Pence ?
538 still has this around a 5 point race, which is what I think it really is. I haven't gone into too much detail on this because it's pretty "Inside Baseball," but Hillary Clinton's ground game is far, far, far superior to Trumps. That means her local organization, particularly in swing states, and their ability to "get out the vote" and get people who may be wavering on who to vote for or whether to vote to go to the polls. Trump's campaign has almost none of that, which is pretty unprecedented in the modern era. He is relying on the Republican parties' efforts, and needless to say he's not the most popular man in the Republican party at the moment.
That "ground game" could be worth up to a point or two in the national election. But it's also important to remember that the person with the most popular votes isn't the one who wins, it's the one who wins the most electoral college votes, which are done state by state. Those swing states are where her organization is strongest, and it's why I'm not particularly worried about Donald Trump becoming the next president.
To give you an idea where we stand, if Clinton holds on to all the states where she has a five point+ lead (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) and wins North Carolina, even if Trumps wins every other swing state (including ones where Clinton has a health lead--Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada), Hillary Clinton is still the next President of the United States.
Have a look at what I've done here instead of doing work:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/pygpY
Here is what FiveThirtyEight is forecasting:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Also worth noting that the campaigns themselves usually have the best polls. I think that if the Clinton campaign were seriously worried, there would a feeling of panic. But there isn't, and she continues to attack swing states like Florida and Nevada instead of going back to states like Michigan and Wisconsin which means her campaign feels confident those states are in the bag.
For the "former Democratic Operative" perspect, I recommend the "Keepin it 1600" podcast. This is not neutral, this is done by a group of guys who were formerly on the campaign/in the cabinet of Barrack Obama (and one who was on the Hillary '08 campaign). But their take on the James Comey thing is quite good, and they get good reporters on as guests (Pete Williams this week, explaining the different Hillary Clinton emails).
https://soundcloud.com/keepinit1600
Unbelievable Geoff!
This presidential race I believe proves me right
It's worth noting that because of party loyalties, any Republican running has a basement (i.e. they are highly unlikely to get less than) around 39%. How we get to that number is complicated and it's not the most scientific.
I think it's somewhere around 42% of the American public is registered as a Republican or strongly-leaning Republicans leaning independents. That number might be as high as 44% depending on how you define "leaning independents."
I think Trump is hitting (I might be this wrong) 85% of registered Republicans, maybe higher. He has then picked up some white working class non-college educated whites, particularly in the rust belt, who used to be Democrat, but he hasn't changed the electoral map as he claimed he would do in the primary. All-in-all, if he hits the 44.9% of the popular vote 538 currently projects (and they're more liberal about his chances than many), then he'll have done slightly better than par.
I think more than anything is speaks to the terrible partisan nature of our country (and I'm not exempt from that). I also think it speaks very poorly about our attitudes toward women and ethnic minorities. But I don't know that it's so much that Trump is doing THAT well as it is that we are an incredibly divided nation.
Will the wanker who has done this please inbox me And tell me why.
Keyboard warrior wanker
(If Trump wins, I mean)
Also, Floyd Montana I almost flagged you for ruining the fun.