Quite probably a volatile week on markets this week but there does, under all that, appear to be a rotation going on. I've been skewed to FTSE 250 for some time and that has been working quite well.
I'm not sure it's a crash, though, as some people seem to think. Just a long-overdue correction on US markets and tech in particular, which are now definitely in a bear market. Views?
I was at a seminar earlier today & it was said that against "fair value" the UK stockmarket is trading at a discount of just over 20%.....whereas the US is at a premium of 43%. Also their is more value in small caps than ever before.
Quite probably a volatile week on markets this week but there does, under all that, appear to be a rotation going on. I've been skewed to FTSE 250 for some time and that has been working quite well.
I'm not sure it's a crash, though, as some people seem to think. Just a long-overdue correction on US markets and tech in particular, which are now definitely in a bear market. Views?
I was at a seminar earlier today & it was said that against "fair value" the UK stockmarket is trading at a discount of just over 20%.....whereas the US is at a premium of 43%. Also their is more value in small caps than ever before.
The US market can remain irrational for years. But the UK market has to overcome some pretty serious headwinds in terms of liquidity issues and pensions allocations forced into bonds through the ludicrous LDI regulations.
But the other thing I noticed is that a lot of the market movement came in after 2:30 last week (i.e. US money) and is being picked up by local investors this week. If the Yanks suddenly decide the FTSE is undervalued for the risk, it could move significantly.
On another topic, I've been talking to some people who are pushing tontines to make a comeback, given the underfunding of and risks in drawing down on DC pensions. That might force annuities providers to offer better value - maybe forcing them back into equities - and might be a good solution the huge numbers of us that are completely reliant on defined contribution pensions.
I think if the members of the tontine were anonymous that would help.
Although the purest form of a tontine is illegal due to the incentive to murder people, I think you could say that about a lot of things, and it could do with a revisit. "Last man standing" tontines are definitely wrong, but I don't think anyone is suggesting a return to that!
They are used in France and Sweden for example, and largely used well.
I think if the members of the tontine were anonymous that would help.
Although the purest form of a tontine is illegal due to the incentive to murder people, I think you could say that about a lot of things, and it could do with a revisit. "Last man standing" tontines are definitely wrong, but I don't think anyone is suggesting a return to that!
They are used in France and Sweden for example, and largely used well.
Recently, there was some legislative change towards tontines and talk of bringing them back but they are still illegal here. The guys I'm talking to are launching in the US, then the Middle East, where they're legal. As said, common in France and Sweden also.
Apparently, the murder issue was always a bit of a red herring. The cohorts are too large and they can easily be made anonymous, so the risk-reward to bump people off is way too skewed. The idea is that they also have, say, a 25 year fixed term, so it never becomes as extreme as last individual standing to scoop the pot.
It's a mixture of annuity, life insurance and a lottery. It encourages people to live more healthily and will attract the more health conscious, so there will be a risk skew there too. But the law of large numbers and actuarial tables mean you can pretty confidently predict that the payouts will outstrip inflation.
The real reason they fell out of favour was because the insurance companies that used to run them pilfered them, a la Maxwell. When the rules changed to prevent that, the insurers moved to annuities, as they made more money. So, essentially, this idea is a mutualisation of annuities, protected in a trust, and backed by FED-guaranteed certificates of deposit, lodged at global custodians.
Comments
But the other thing I noticed is that a lot of the market movement came in after 2:30 last week (i.e. US money) and is being picked up by local investors this week. If the Yanks suddenly decide the FTSE is undervalued for the risk, it could move significantly.
On another topic, I've been talking to some people who are pushing tontines to make a comeback, given the underfunding of and risks in drawing down on DC pensions. That might force annuities providers to offer better value - maybe forcing them back into equities - and might be a good solution the huge numbers of us that are completely reliant on defined contribution pensions.
Although the purest form of a tontine is illegal due to the incentive to murder people, I think you could say that about a lot of things, and it could do with a revisit. "Last man standing" tontines are definitely wrong, but I don't think anyone is suggesting a return to that!
They are used in France and Sweden for example, and largely used well.
Apparently, the murder issue was always a bit of a red herring. The cohorts are too large and they can easily be made anonymous, so the risk-reward to bump people off is way too skewed. The idea is that they also have, say, a 25 year fixed term, so it never becomes as extreme as last individual standing to scoop the pot.
It's a mixture of annuity, life insurance and a lottery. It encourages people to live more healthily and will attract the more health conscious, so there will be a risk skew there too. But the law of large numbers and actuarial tables mean you can pretty confidently predict that the payouts will outstrip inflation.
The real reason they fell out of favour was because the insurance companies that used to run them pilfered them, a la Maxwell. When the rules changed to prevent that, the insurers moved to annuities, as they made more money. So, essentially, this idea is a mutualisation of annuities, protected in a trust, and backed by FED-guaranteed certificates of deposit, lodged at global custodians.
Done
No point having rules if they can be broken....🙄.
Ps
Only joking.
Terrible return so far this year following a decent one last year.
I don't know why I ever got excited about premium bonds they have been absolutely shit. :-(
£150 for father in law
Wife £175 (max)
Son £75 (33k)
£325 the wife ( her first draw)
both max holding