World stockmarkets not faring well at the moment. Results this week from some of the big US tech companies have been disappointing & although the BOE reduced rates yesterday the Fed havent done & their reluctance to had now spooked the markets.
Around 4pm today this is how the stood -
FTSE100 down 1.4% Dax (Germany) down 2.25% Cac40 ( France) down 1.5% Eurostox (top 50 European co's) down 2.5% Dow down 2.20% S&P500 down 2.5%
And overnight Hong King was down 2.1%. & Japan was down 5.8%.
Not a good start to the month.
Further to Friday's losses today hasn't started any better.
Japan finished down 12% - yes TWELVE. FTSE100 currently down 2% Most other European markets (inc the FT 250) down around 2.5%.
The two analysts that I follow that correctly called this from the Friday before last (including the ramp into Wednesday), reckon that there should be a bounce this week. They were both (using very different sets of signals) calling for S&P down to at least 5265 but as low as 5180 initially, then a bounce.
The problem is that August and September aren't usually great months for liquidity but both think this could just be a correction. 7.5% draw down in an election year and a higher EoY is quite common.
Come on, fess up, y’all scoffed at my latest FTSE100 prediction, didn’t ‘cha ?😉
Not that I am remotely claiming to have seen this coming, at this time. I just felt that something like this would happen in the next few months, especially because of the noise around the big tech bros and AI…
In truth of course there’s very little % difference between my forecast and most of the others. We could all be doomed🤣
That Nikkei drop hurts me, btw. I have some funds…
Having cashed a lot of mine in, I’m sitting on a lot of cash in my SIPP, question is when do I reinvest…….
I'm happy to say that for quite some time I have been very heavily exposed to cash - and getting between 5% and 6% on it. I'm more than happy with that at my age and risk appetite and can't see it changing much in the future.
Having cashed a lot of mine in, I’m sitting on a lot of cash in my SIPP, question is when do I reinvest…….
I'm happy to say that for quite some time I have been very heavily exposed to cash - and getting between 5% and 6% on it. I'm more than happy with that at my age and risk appetite and can't see it changing much in the future.
I’m still a bit over 5 years from being able to draw down, so will likely jump back in, although probably will keep 10% of the pot in cash.
Having cashed a lot of mine in, I’m sitting on a lot of cash in my SIPP, question is when do I reinvest…….
Depends where you want to invest really. I'd put a bit in now. Markets might have further to fall but Japan is down over 25% from it's all time high and & other markets down 5-7% over the past week. UK is already trading at a discount & is below 8000 for the 1st time in months.
Jesus Christ, 3 days ago im moaning about Premium bonds and how shit they are, and now the last week has wiped out all my gains since I started my S&S ISA in Feb...
Jesus Christ, 3 days ago im moaning about Premium bonds and how shit they are, and now the last week has wiped out all my gains since I started my S&S ISA in Feb...
You're lucky you've only wiped out your gains. Imagine if you invested it last week. You could be looking at a 10% loss by the end of this week.
Then again, depends on where its invested. The Bonds in my portfolio (c25%) have all made gains since Friday.
And my fine pref shares have performed very nicely since the start of the year. The rest of it's a bin fire, mind you. I prefer to think of drops not in % terms but in time terms. Makes it easier if you regard it as having gone back 6 months than down 10%, for example.
Having cashed a lot of mine in, I’m sitting on a lot of cash in my SIPP, question is when do I reinvest…….
Tell me when you think as I've done the same.
I'll wait until it settles and starts to show a slide up.
I've held firm and not cashed in before on many a slump and usually regretted it, as the markets fell further and further.
Also, I've cashed in before and then bought back in too early and missed out on bigger rises in the following months.
I'm usually quite successful at picking the bottom of the markets or near bottom. I'm down @4% this week, but it could have been much worse.
I've put a little back in late today (about 15% of the cash). Q big drop tomorrow :-) - but some I'm buying back at near 10% less than I sold at a couple of weeks ago so long term happy days......
After this pullback there are some very attractive yields on bluechip shares about, but I'm going to let things settle for a while before making any decisions
Max draw down on Monday was 5%. That was from an all time high that was only 13% away from the number I've set myself to retire without having to downsize.
I've now recovered about 1.5% of that but it has made me think about my risk appetite right now, given any cash I hold is earning 5%, as per @bobmunro. It's been a good run, up 33% in two years. First investment classic psychology issue - the difficulty of objectively judging risks in a market panic and seeing realised gains as more important than opportunity cost.
The trouble is, with a few notable exceptions, most of my holdings either look like they have much more to grow or are in very strong trends (e.g. Fortinet, a cyber security company, went up 13% after hours last night, after great results). With the dogs, I'm having trouble taking the losses, which is the second classic psychological investment issue. For the stars, I'm worried about cutting the flowers and watering the weeds. For interest, the dogs are BP & VW and the stars are Mitie, HILS and LSEG.
Agree with @IdleHans that the value stocks still look undervalued. I have quite a heavy percentage of those and - cyclically - they should do well.
So a bit of a dilemma but overall pointing to taking some off the table into any strength. The current bounce could easily turn into a trend on a good number on next Wednesday's CPI result. A bad number would be a disaster - people thinking the FED won't drop rates going into a recession. And no-one is sure whether the Yen carry trade is fully unwound yet.
My Sipp had fallen 5.5% over the last month.....and most of that has come over the last 4 or 5 days.
I blame Labour....😄
I’m down 0.68% over the month. Small improvement yesterday and I’m still happy with my year end FTSE prediction 😉
Thats very good, I assume you've little to nothing in the US or Japan.
I track mine daily & the fall was from 6th July to 6th August. Have around 4% in Japan & over 25% in US.
I’d assumed those dates and did the same to compare properly.
My SIPP is 20 investments across equities property and bonds, but @Rob7Lee it’s 10.56% across 3 North American Equity funds and 5.6% in one Japanese fund. The best of the three US funds is TM Natixis Loomis Sayles US Equity Leaders fund, which is surprising given some of the tech firms within it.
If by reliable, you mean, is your money safe, then they say they are FSCS protected. Always worth double checking that is true by following the FCA links and reference.
You are covered up to 85k but the licenses can get shared, so if you're likely to be anywhere near the 85k limit, it's worth checking that you aren't on that same license elsewhere as all organisations on the same license are treated as one bank.
If you just mean, is it technically a good platform, I'm not familiar with them. Think they are a German outfit but I don't usually work in retail and haven't worked with them.
Comments
Japan finished down 12% - yes TWELVE.
FTSE100 currently down 2%
Most other European markets (inc the FT 250) down around 2.5%.
Could be a bumpy ride this week.
The problem is that August and September aren't usually great months for liquidity but both think this could just be a correction. 7.5% draw down in an election year and a higher EoY is quite common.
Not that I am remotely claiming to have seen this coming, at this time. I just felt that something like this would happen in the next few months, especially because of the noise around the big tech bros and AI…
In truth of course there’s very little % difference between my forecast and most of the others. We could all be doomed🤣
That Nikkei drop hurts me, btw. I have some funds…
Having cashed a lot of mine in, I’m sitting on a lot of cash in my SIPP, question is when do I reinvest…….
I'm happy to say that for quite some time I have been very heavily exposed to cash - and getting between 5% and 6% on it. I'm more than happy with that at my age and risk appetite and can't see it changing much in the future.
Then again, depends on where its invested. The Bonds in my portfolio (c25%) have all made gains since Friday.
I prefer to think of drops not in % terms but in time terms. Makes it easier if you regard it as having gone back 6 months than down 10%, for example.
Also, I've cashed in before and then bought back in too early and missed out on bigger rises in the following months.
I'm usually quite successful at picking the bottom of the markets or near bottom.
I'm down @4% this week, but it could have been much worse.
I blame Labour....😄
;-)
I've now recovered about 1.5% of that but it has made me think about my risk appetite right now, given any cash I hold is earning 5%, as per @bobmunro. It's been a good run, up 33% in two years. First investment classic psychology issue - the difficulty of objectively judging risks in a market panic and seeing realised gains as more important than opportunity cost.
The trouble is, with a few notable exceptions, most of my holdings either look like they have much more to grow or are in very strong trends (e.g. Fortinet, a cyber security company, went up 13% after hours last night, after great results). With the dogs, I'm having trouble taking the losses, which is the second classic psychological investment issue. For the stars, I'm worried about cutting the flowers and watering the weeds. For interest, the dogs are BP & VW and the stars are Mitie, HILS and LSEG.
Agree with @IdleHans that the value stocks still look undervalued. I have quite a heavy percentage of those and - cyclically - they should do well.
So a bit of a dilemma but overall pointing to taking some off the table into any strength. The current bounce could easily turn into a trend on a good number on next Wednesday's CPI result. A bad number would be a disaster - people thinking the FED won't drop rates going into a recession. And no-one is sure whether the Yen carry trade is fully unwound yet.
You are covered up to 85k but the licenses can get shared, so if you're likely to be anywhere near the 85k limit, it's worth checking that you aren't on that same license elsewhere as all organisations on the same license are treated as one bank.
This is a pretty helpful guide: https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/safe-savings/#:~:text=But%20the%20FSCS%20doesn't,Cash%20in%20a%20PayPal%20account.
If you just mean, is it technically a good platform, I'm not familiar with them. Think they are a German outfit but I don't usually work in retail and haven't worked with them.