And now, punters forecasts and the variance with actual in % terms. Nex to the % an "O" means the punter has been too optimistic and a "P", too pessimistic....listed in order of who posted predictions first...best three calls in bold
So there we are...and the winner is..well you tell me, not least because the two best calls came from people who also made quite bad calls in their other of two predictions and joshing aside that's quite interesting.
Anyway, there we are, good game, lorra fun
Comments? Mea culpas??
If only I'd followed my instincts in real life - I was much more pessimistic!!
And now, punters forecasts and the variance with actual in % terms. Nex to the % an "O" means the punter has been too optimistic and a "P", too pessimistic....listed in order of who posted predictions first...best three calls in bold
So there we are...and the winner is..well you tell me, not least because the two best calls came from people who also made quite bad calls in their other of two predictions and joshing aside that's quite interesting.
Anyway, there we are, good game, lorra fun
Comments? Mea culpas??
Ouch. I thought I went for 6500 on the FTSE100, but even then I would have been miles out (although its had a good day today with it closing up 2% & above 6000 again)
Problem with trying to predict the end of the year close is the US elections in November.......and poxy Covid too !!
Outperforming stocks and shares, gold, oil and property by vast margins over the last 12 years? Banksy.
Art generally (and of course Banksy in particular) can be stunning investments, but of course the secret is buying in advance of a move upwards. Originals, or small run signed prints, will always be in limited supply - there will be no more. And as Golfie says, most price moves are based on limited supply, whether that's art, Rolex stainless steel sports models, antiques or classic cars.
@shine166 has already convinced me in regards art - and I thank him for that.
Plenty of limited run prints out there that don’t necessarily go up that much in value, or might even go down. As you know, it’s knowing who to buy and when.
Banksy’s prints were massively underpriced when he sold them originally, say £400, but if you were lucky enough (or queued long enough) to get one, they were worth a grand or two, or even more, by the time you got it home. Now it’s silly money really, and you have to wonder when the bubble will burst.
@oohaahmortimer was closest to the FTSE100 closing figure. Given a couple of days either way & he would have been spot on.
And I was closest to the All World Index closing value 😊
Averages dear chap. You both had 2 guesses and on average Prague won, no doubt about it. (Unless you only want to include one of your guesses and conveniently ignore the 18.7% over estimation?
I don’t even know what the World Index is and can’t remember guessing what I did for it , my memory is mush So I agree with Prague one index for all at end of year .
Prague is declared the winner and his prize is to organise the next one
@oohaahmortimer was closest to the FTSE100 closing figure. Given a couple of days either way & he would have been spot on.
And I was closest to the All World Index closing value 😊
I actually went for 356 on the all world but was way out on the S&P.
I agree - Prague the winner.
Next time, tighter rules, one index!
But which index....? I would have thought most UK based lifers would want to go for the FTSE as that the one that is more pertinent to them but then @PragueAddick might have other ideas.
Another good PB month £150 (6x£25) for Jnr. £25 for the other half and bugger all for me. Mind you he is on max holding with his property deposit temporarily invested.
@oohaahmortimer was closest to the FTSE100 closing figure. Given a couple of days either way & he would have been spot on.
And I was closest to the All World Index closing value 😊
I actually went for 356 on the all world but was way out on the S&P.
I agree - Prague the winner.
Next time, tighter rules, one index!
But which index....? I would have thought most UK based lifers would want to go for the FTSE as that the one that is more pertinent to them but then @PragueAddick might have other ideas.
My idea is, you can only choose one index, but which index, is up to you. I chose the All World as I have a portfolio that's diversified geographically, and I assume most participants would too, but it would be entirely up to the individual punter.
Surprised you'd say FTSE 100 would be most pertinent to most Lifers, though Golfie. I know the constituents keep changing, but recently you might as well have called it Futski 100 due to all the Russian owned companies polluting it.
Anyway, I'm up for another go, it will be extremely difficult, as you say, and I will probably fall flat on my face :-)
Outperforming stocks and shares, gold, oil and property by vast margins over the last 12 years? Banksy.
Art generally (and of course Banksy in particular) can be stunning investments, but of course the secret is buying in advance of a move upwards. Originals, or small run signed prints, will always be in limited supply - there will be no more. And as Golfie says, most price moves are based on limited supply, whether that's art, Rolex stainless steel sports models, antiques or classic cars.
@shine166 has already convinced me in regards art - and I thank him for that.
Banksy is a no brainer, he now only releases to VIPs for big money, that have backed him since the early days and his popularity seems to have to limit right now. Another 12 months and I might be able to cash in and buy a mortgage free house just off of the work of his that I own.
And now, punters forecasts and the variance with actual in % terms. Nex to the % an "O" means the punter has been too optimistic and a "P", too pessimistic....listed in order of who posted predictions first...best three calls in bold
So there we are...and the winner is..well you tell me, not least because the two best calls came from people who also made quite bad calls in their other of two predictions and joshing aside that's quite interesting.
Personally, I think the All Wld Index guesses above should be null and void! Maths and Statistics are not my strong point (as I will no doubt be told!) but if you have an Index that only traverses a narrow path is it not more liable to have smaller percentage increases/decreases than something like the FTSE which trades over a much larger span?
As regards the FTSE guesses, as an openly admitted amateur, mug punter (who is trading for a bit of "fun" rather than trying to build up a pension pot) it's good to see I have as much (or little) idea where the Index will go as the experts! Which rather confirms my jaundiced views that no-one really knows where the market will go and that the predictions from the experts for the next year carried in the January newspapers are always showing the market rising because they don't want to scare off investors!
I'm up for a Christmas guess. Definitely one guess only. But as it looks easier to me guessing the All World Index rather than the FTSE or Dow Jones anyone picking the latter indexes is going to be at a disadvantage. Or are they?
Comments
Anyone for an end of year punt?
This is by far my largest investment.
Honestly I have no faith in what the future holds.
Problem with trying to predict the end of the year close is the US elections in November.......and poxy Covid too !!
Will give it some thought.
and this time, one Lifer one vote one index! :-)
@oohaahmortimer was closest to the FTSE100 closing figure. Given a couple of days either way & he would have been spot on.
And I was closest to the All World Index closing value 😊
You both had 2 guesses and on average Prague won, no doubt about it.
(Unless you only want to include one of your guesses and conveniently ignore the 18.7% over estimation?
So I agree with Prague one index for all at end of year .
Prague is declared the winner and his prize is to organise the next one
I agree - Prague the winner.
Next time, tighter rules, one index!
Surprised you'd say FTSE 100 would be most pertinent to most Lifers, though Golfie. I know the constituents keep changing, but recently you might as well have called it Futski 100 due to all the Russian owned companies polluting it.
Anyway, I'm up for another go, it will be extremely difficult, as you say, and I will probably fall flat on my face :-)
Shall we say entries by 17,00 Monday?
Thanks for organising. A good bit of fun!
Personally, I think the All Wld Index guesses above should be null and void! Maths and Statistics are not my strong point (as I will no doubt be told!) but if you have an Index that only traverses a narrow path is it not more liable to have smaller percentage increases/decreases than something like the FTSE which trades over a much larger span?
As regards the FTSE guesses, as an openly admitted amateur, mug punter (who is trading for a bit of "fun" rather than trying to build up a pension pot) it's good to see I have as much (or little) idea where the Index will go as the experts! Which rather confirms my jaundiced views that no-one really knows where the market will go and that the predictions from the experts for the next year carried in the January newspapers are always showing the market rising because they don't want to scare off investors!
I'm up for a Christmas guess. Definitely one guess only. But as it looks easier to me guessing the All World Index rather than the FTSE or Dow Jones anyone picking the latter indexes is going to be at a disadvantage. Or are they?