The bit that makes me less than excited about the play offs is that we only have a one in four chance (or thereabouts) of winning promotion. They can bring exciting games but are faint hope particularly from where we are now.
checked on odds checker and they reckon, Sky bet have us at 18-1 for promotion and 22-1 via the playoff.
That makes no sense. Two ways of getting promoted top two or win play offs. So sky say 18/1 to be top 2 an get promoted or win the playoffs . Or 22/1 to miss top 2 and to be 3rd -6th and win playoffs.
Take the 18/1 over the 22/1. Just in case !
Interestingly we are only 9/2 to make top 6.
5/1 make top 6 I've backed us to make top 6 When we reach play offs we will be 7/2 to win them
Last season after playing 27 matches, Barnsley with 36 points were in 13th place - finishing 6th and winning promotion. All things are possible.
Remember all the teams above us all have to play each other - and they can't all get maximum points. At various points, they'll all be affected by injuries and loss of form. Charlton too, no doubt.
But it's still in our own hands.
We've got a game or 2 in hand over most teams and we need to get those points in the bag. Fleetwood have risen from midtable on the back of 6 wins in a row - we must beat them on Saturday and put a string of wins together.
Promotion form consistancy needed to even stand a chance of making the playoffs. It's a big ask - but one game at a time and all that.
It is NOT in our own hands. It's true that we would have to perform better than we have done at any stage of the season so far. In particular, we would need to score more goals (who is going to get those?) to have the slighest chance. We would, even then, require a minimum of five teams out of six (those currently occupying places five down to ten) to screw up, some badly some marginally.. Very unlikely if not impossible but not in our hands.
If, at the end of the season, we can look back and say that match 5 games ago was the start of a long run of good form then automatic promotion could be the target but the play offs would be the default if the top two don't have a blip.
If we manage to get into the playoffs we are likely to be in great form which would give us a good chance. However, I predict that we will finish further away from 6th place (in terms of points) than we are now.
I suspect this outcome will start to take shape when we fail to beat Fleetwood at home on Saturday, then follow that up with another draw or defeat at Wimbledon the week after.
Then all talk will be of the summer rebuild, something KR has already started doing, which we all know will be as successful as this month's and last summer's transfer window.
The worst thing about this transfer window is not that, again, we had a great opportunity to take advantage of the financial strength that we should have and we fluffed, again. The worst thing is that we all knew we would do, exactly, this and we are still frustrated by it.
If we manage to get into the playoffs we are likely to be in great form which would give us a good chance. However, I predict that we will finish further away from 6th place (in terms of points) than we are now.
I suspect this outcome will start to take shape when we fail to beat Fleetwood at home on Saturday, then follow that up with another draw or defeat at Wimbledon the week after.
Then all talk will be of the summer rebuild, something KR has already started doing, which we all know will be as successful as this month's and last summer's transfer window.
The worst thing about this transfer window is not that, again, we had a great opportunity to take advantage of the financial strength that we should have and we fluffed, again. The worst thing is that we all knew we would do, exactly, this and we are still frustrated by it.
Personally, I think we did quite well in this transfer window but I was expecting just a little bit more from the Lookman money which makes me wonder whether the fabled new ownership is actually not that far away
If we need roughly a points tally of 75 and we are 36 points short with 19 games to go (think that's right) then to push into the play off's needs roughly 2 points a game which is automatic promotion form.
Chances of that are almost zero in my view. It relies on being better than 6 or 7 teams above us or around us, looking at the fixtures my predictions are with points;
26 points plus 39 = 65 - 10+ short of the play off's, maybe 9th or 10th.
Of course mathematically it's possible, but then for ages last season it was mathematically possible not to get relegated but we never believed it from about Feb onwards.
More of a worry for me is the summer, if we carry on the same path with signings, managers etc then next season is likely to be a relegation battle.
Okay, I hope I've got this right. Last season, by way of example, the team in sixth place at the end of the season got 74 points. (So did the team in seventh.) They were a little adrift: the team in fifth had eighty points. But let's target 74.
We are currently in eleventh place with 39 points. So to get to 74, (which may or may not be enough) we need another 35 points from 19 games. An average of 1.85 points per game. The snag is that teams above us who have all performed better than us so far, now need less points to get to 74 points. Bolton and Fleetwood only need 24, Bradford 25, Rochdale 29 and Southend 31. Those are average points per game 1.27, 1.41, 1.47, 1.53 and 1.72 respectively.
The form of Bolton and Fleetwood would have to fail catastrophically for us to overhaul them, so let's ignore them. But even if Bradford, Rochdale and Southend all slumped badly we would still need to achieve a big upswing in form AND do better than two of Bristol Rovers, Peterborough and Millwall. Now the last six games we've won three, drawn two and lost one: a pretty fair performance. But still only an average points per game figure of 1.83. Less than we need. So, in a word, no. We won't make the play offs unless something remarkable happens. Which explains the odds.
Millwall you've got to hope will exhaust themselves in this pointless FA Cup campaign
You're right, no points to be won from the FA Cup. We do, however, still hold on to the dream of appearing at Wembley again. You're welcome to come along with @palarsehater and myself should we make it
Last season after playing 27 matches, Barnsley with 36 points were in 13th place - finishing 6th and winning promotion. All things are possible.
Remember all the teams above us all have to play each other - and they can't all get maximum points. At various points, they'll all be affected by injuries and loss of form. Charlton too, no doubt.
But it's still in our own hands.
We've got a game or 2 in hand over most teams and we need to get those points in the bag. Fleetwood have risen from midtable on the back of 6 wins in a row - we must beat them on Saturday and put a string of wins together.
Promotion form consistancy needed to even stand a chance of making the playoffs. It's a big ask - but one game at a time and all that.
It is NOT in our own hands. It's true that we would have to perform better than we have done at any stage of the season so far. In particular, we would need to score more goals (who is going to get those?) to have the slighest chance. We would, even then, require a minimum of five teams out of six (those currently occupying places five down to ten) to screw up, some badly some marginally.. Very unlikely if not impossible but not in our hands.
Of course it's still in our own hands. Just like it was in Barnsley's last season - after 27 games, 36 points, 13th place.
We're 6 points behind. We're going to play many of the teams above us - but we need to beat them, like we did Bolton last weekend. If we do, the gap narrows. If we don't, then it all unravels and we miss out.
All the teams above us have to play each other. No team is going to pick up anywhere near maximum points and some teams will fall away.
It would take a terrific run on our part, but that's why Fleetwood (6 successive wins) and Rochdale (5 successive wins) have come from mid-table to the playoff places. We play both of those teams within our next 3 fixtures.
Let's see where we are at the beginning of March. But for now, it's in our hands still.
If we need roughly a points tally of 75 and we are 36 points short with 19 games to go (think that's right) then to push into the play off's needs roughly 2 points a game which is automatic promotion form.
Chances of that are almost zero in my view. It relies on being better than 6 or 7 teams above us or around us, looking at the fixtures my predictions are with points;
26 points plus 39 = 65 - 10+ short of the play off's, maybe 9th or 10th.
Of course mathematically it's possible, but then for ages last season it was mathematically possible not to get relegated but we never believed it from about Feb onwards.
More of a worry for me is the summer, if we carry on the same path with signings, managers etc then next season is likely to be a relegation battle.
Before Saturday's win at Bolton, we had no league wins this season against the current top 7. We have to play 5 of them before the end of the season, so it would take promotion winning form to grab that 5th or 6th spot. If we did get to the play offs, then we would have to be strongly fancied to winning it.
If we need roughly a points tally of 75 and we are 36 points short with 19 games to go (think that's right) then to push into the play off's needs roughly 2 points a game which is automatic promotion form.
Chances of that are almost zero in my view. It relies on being better than 6 or 7 teams above us or around us, looking at the fixtures my predictions are with points;
26 points plus 39 = 65 - 10+ short of the play off's, maybe 9th or 10th.
Of course mathematically it's possible, but then for ages last season it was mathematically possible not to get relegated but we never believed it from about Feb onwards.
More of a worry for me is the summer, if we carry on the same path with signings, managers etc then next season is likely to be a relegation battle.
Before Saturday's win at Bolton, we had no league wins this season against the current top 7. We have to play 5 of them before the end of the season, so it would take promotion winning form to grab that 5th or 6th spot. If we did get to the play offs, then we would have to be strongly fancied to winning it.
But whats to say a they opposition will still be in the top seven when we play them though?
If we need roughly a points tally of 75 and we are 36 points short with 19 games to go (think that's right) then to push into the play off's needs roughly 2 points a game which is automatic promotion form.
Chances of that are almost zero in my view. It relies on being better than 6 or 7 teams above us or around us, looking at the fixtures my predictions are with points;
26 points plus 39 = 65 - 10+ short of the play off's, maybe 9th or 10th.
Of course mathematically it's possible, but then for ages last season it was mathematically possible not to get relegated but we never believed it from about Feb onwards.
More of a worry for me is the summer, if we carry on the same path with signings, managers etc then next season is likely to be a relegation battle.
Before Saturday's win at Bolton, we had no league wins this season against the current top 7. We have to play 5 of them before the end of the season, so it would take promotion winning form to grab that 5th or 6th spot. If we did get to the play offs, then we would have to be strongly fancied to winning it.
But whats to say a they opposition will still be in the top seven when we play them though?
Where does it say they have to. The current 7 now!
If we manage to get into the playoffs we are likely to be in great form which would give us a good chance. However, I predict that we will finish further away from 6th place (in terms of points) than we are now.
I suspect this outcome will start to take shape when we fail to beat Fleetwood at home on Saturday, then follow that up with another draw or defeat at Wimbledon the week after.
Then all talk will be of the summer rebuild, something KR has already started doing, which we all know will be as successful as this month's and last summer's transfer window.
The worst thing about this transfer window is not that, again, we had a great opportunity to take advantage of the financial strength that we should have and we fluffed, again. The worst thing is that we all knew we would do, exactly, this and we are still frustrated by it.
Fail to beat Fleetwood!? Fail to beat Wimbledon!? Can't see it myself. Would love to see Watt getting on the scoresheet on Saturday.
checked on odds checker and they reckon, Sky bet have us at 18-1 for promotion and 22-1 via the playoff.
That makes no sense. Two ways of getting promoted top two or win play offs. So sky say 18/1 to be top 2 an get promoted or win the playoffs . Or 22/1 to miss top 2 and to be 3rd -6th and win playoffs.
Take the 18/1 over the 22/1. Just in case !
Interestingly we are only 9/2 to make top 6.
5/1 make top 6 I've backed us to make top 6 When we reach play offs we will be 7/2 to win them
Just backed us at 11/2 for top 6 finish. Its plausible but a task. Thanks for these odds!
Definitely possible to get in the play offs! - I think KR has done very well in Jan. Lookman and Fox were always likely to leave.. and Ajose never did anything since signing (Slade didnt seem to rate either)
We have lots of options in Midfield now (J-FC, Byrne and Dasilva offer legs and pace, previous we had Jacko playing out wide ffs!), and when they are fit going Forward we have a versatile front line too with two big men, young arsenal lad looks quick and a deep lying CF in Watt.
I think the negative lot who post absolute drivel on here need to give Robinson a chance, he's making positive changes and can hopefully get us towards a play off spot. Feb is massive we have 5/6 winnable games out of 7 starting on saturday!
Definitely possible to get in the play offs! - I think KR has done very well in Jan. Lookman and Fox were always likely to leave.. and Ajose never did anything since signing (Slade didnt seem to rate either)
We have lots of options in Midfield now (J-FC, Byrne and Dasilva offer legs and pace, previous we had Jacko playing out wide ffs!), and when they are fit going Forward we have a versatile front line too with two big men, young arsenal lad looks quick and a deep lying CF in Watt.
I think the negative lot who post absolute drivel on here need to give Robinson a chance, he's making positive changes and can hopefully get us towards a play off spot. Feb is massive we have 5/6 winnable games out of 7 starting on saturday!
Okay, I hope I've got this right. Last season, by way of example, the team in sixth place at the end of the season got 74 points. (So did the team in seventh.) They were a little adrift: the team in fifth had eighty points. But let's target 74.
We are currently in eleventh place with 39 points. So to get to 74, (which may or may not be enough) we need another 35 points from 19 games. An average of 1.85 points per game. The snag is that teams above us who have all performed better than us so far, now need less points to get to 74 points. Bolton and Fleetwood only need 24, Bradford 25, Rochdale 29 and Southend 31. Those are average points per game 1.27, 1.41, 1.47, 1.53 and 1.72 respectively.
The form of Bolton and Fleetwood would have to fail catastrophically for us to overhaul them, so let's ignore them. But even if Bradford, Rochdale and Southend all slumped badly we would still need to achieve a big upswing in form AND do better than two of Bristol Rovers, Peterborough and Millwall.
Now the last six games we've won three, drawn two and lost one: a pretty fair performance. But still only an average points per game figure of 1.83. Less than we need.
So, in a word, no. We won't make the play offs unless something remarkable happens. Which explains the odds.
I think we will come close, even to the last game of the season and like the season Millwall went up look like we have done it only to fall at the last hurdle.. If we do get into the play offs, I would back us to go up, purely and simply as we would be displaying such great form
Comments
I've backed us to make top 6
When we reach play offs we will be 7/2 to win them
Simple.
It's true that we would have to perform better than we have done at any stage of the season so far. In particular, we would need to score more goals (who is going to get those?) to have the slighest chance.
We would, even then, require a minimum of five teams out of six (those currently occupying places five down to ten) to screw up, some badly some marginally.. Very unlikely if not impossible but not in our hands.
If, at the end of the season, we can look back and say that match 5 games ago was the start of a long run of good form then automatic promotion could be the target but the play offs would be the default if the top two don't have a blip.
I suspect this outcome will start to take shape when we fail to beat Fleetwood at home on Saturday, then follow that up with another draw or defeat at Wimbledon the week after.
Then all talk will be of the summer rebuild, something KR has already started doing, which we all know will be as successful as this month's and last summer's transfer window.
The worst thing about this transfer window is not that, again, we had a great opportunity to take advantage of the financial strength that we should have and we fluffed, again. The worst thing is that we all knew we would do, exactly, this and we are still frustrated by it.
Chances of that are almost zero in my view. It relies on being better than 6 or 7 teams above us or around us, looking at the fixtures my predictions are with points;
Fleetwood 3
AFC W 1
Oldham 3
Oxford 0
Rochdale 0
Bury 1
Shrewsbury 1
Northampton 3
Scunthorpe 0
Wallsall 1
Bradford 1
Sheff U 0
MKD 1
Peterborough 0
Southend 3
Coventry 3
Gillingham 1
Chesterfield 3
Swindon 1
26 points plus 39 = 65 - 10+ short of the play off's, maybe 9th or 10th.
Of course mathematically it's possible, but then for ages last season it was mathematically possible not to get relegated but we never believed it from about Feb onwards.
More of a worry for me is the summer, if we carry on the same path with signings, managers etc then next season is likely to be a relegation battle.
Just like it was in Barnsley's last season - after 27 games, 36 points, 13th place.
We're 6 points behind. We're going to play many of the teams above us - but we need to beat them, like we did Bolton last weekend.
If we do, the gap narrows. If we don't, then it all unravels and we miss out.
All the teams above us have to play each other. No team is going to pick up anywhere near maximum points and some teams will fall away.
It would take a terrific run on our part, but that's why Fleetwood (6 successive wins) and Rochdale (5 successive wins) have come from mid-table to the playoff places.
We play both of those teams within our next 3 fixtures.
Let's see where we are at the beginning of March.
But for now, it's in our hands still.
I still think it's a tall order but in answer to the question. Yes we can.
Can't see it myself.
Would love to see Watt getting on the scoresheet on Saturday.
We have lots of options in Midfield now (J-FC, Byrne and Dasilva offer legs and pace, previous we had Jacko playing out wide ffs!), and when they are fit going Forward we have a versatile front line too with two big men, young arsenal lad looks quick and a deep lying CF in Watt.
I think the negative lot who post absolute drivel on here need to give Robinson a chance, he's making positive changes and can hopefully get us towards a play off spot. Feb is massive we have 5/6 winnable games out of 7 starting on saturday!
Fleetwood
AFC W
Oldham
Oxford
Rochdale
Bury
12 points out of them then were well on the road anything less, will be a mid table and august we go again.
for anyone that can be assed doing it theres a predictor.