The only scenario that makes any sense is that the Aussies have a price in mind that is below what RD wants. They are willing to wait it out and have been caught by surprise (repeatedly) by just how stubborn RD is.
I think they thought RD would drop the price once the season was over, there was no income and promotion hadn't been secured. He didn't.
They then though he'd drop his price once the transfer window closed and he was looking at months of out-goings with no possibility of selling domestically. Once again he stuck to his price.
I think they're hoping that once the international window closes and there's no possibility of any new cash (either player sales or sell-on clauses) until the new year that he'll drop his price. At this stage they can wait him out. With the windows closed there is no great time pressure on the Aussies, but RD's losses mount up by the month.
I think they'll get the club for the price they want sometime either late September or late October. In the meantime they can afford to let RD simmer.
There is no such thing as an only scenario when you're dealing with Roland. Almost anything is possible. They don't have to make sense when he's involved:-)
If I had a pound for every house buying analogy we had on this thread the club would be bought, Yann would be back and the staff would have had their bonuses by now!
Think I've said it before elswhere(?). The really frustrating thing with the whole 'Aussie' saga is that (I feel) they royally mugged us off back in May.
They pitched up at The Valley, adorned in their finest CAFC regalia, masquerading like antipodean saviours, giving us all the impression that it was imminent!
Now hindsight is a beautiful thing, but their modus operandi at that time was both naive and gullible. Getting the hopes up of the faithful was an incredibly arrogant, and at the same time immature, thing to do when they clearly hadn't crossed the line and 'made the deal'.
Sadly, that imminence has manifested itself in the finest of takeover traditions!
If I had a pound for every house buying analogy we had on this thread the club would be bought, Yanm would be back and the staff would have had their bonuses by now!
Think I've said it before elswhere(?). The really frustrating thing with the whole 'Aussie' saga is that (I feel) they royally mugged us off back in May.
They pitched up at The Valley, adorned in their finest CAFC regalia, masquerading like antipodean saviours, giving us all the impression that it was imminent!
Now hindsight is a beautiful thing, but their modus operandi at that time was both naive and gullible. Getting the hopes up of the faithful was an incredibly arrogant, and at the same time immature, thing to do when they clearly hadn't crossed the line and 'made the deal'.
Sadly, that imminence has manifested itself in the finest of takeover traditions!
'Mugged us off' implies that it was a deliberate act designed to make mugs of us, when it was anything but that. Over optimism maybe. Over enthusiasm maybe. Certainly not an attempt to mug us off, although it makes a great soundbite.
Think I've said it before elswhere(?). The really frustrating thing with the whole 'Aussie' saga is that (I feel) they royally mugged us off back in May.
They pitched up at The Valley, adorned in their finest CAFC regalia, masquerading like antipodean saviours, giving us all the impression that it was imminent!
Now hindsight is a beautiful thing, but their modus operandi at that time was both naive and gullible. Getting the hopes up of the faithful was an incredibly arrogant, and at the same time immature, thing to do when they clearly hadn't crossed the line and 'made the deal'.
Sadly, that imminence has manifested itself in the finest of takeover traditions!
Perhaps, but why did Murphy go to Shrewsbury, where he wouldn't have been seen without a little detective work? They thought it was happening is the answer, IMO. Nothing in any of the pictures I took that day show that he was in any way made welcome by Murray, who appeared to ignore him.
The only scenario that makes any sense is that the Aussies have a price in mind that is below what RD wants. They are willing to wait it out and have been caught by surprise (repeatedly) by just how stubborn RD is.
I think they thought RD would drop the price once the season was over, there was no income and promotion hadn't been secured. He didn't.
They then though he'd drop his price once the transfer window closed and he was looking at months of out-goings with no possibility of selling domestically. Once again he stuck to his price.
I think they're hoping that once the international window closes and there's no possibility of any new cash (either player sales or sell-on clauses) until the new year that he'll drop his price. At this stage they can wait him out. With the windows closed there is no great time pressure on the Aussies, but RD's losses mount up by the month.
I think they'll get the club for the price they want sometime either late September or late October. In the meantime they can afford to let RD simmer.
There is no such thing as an only scenario when you're dealing with Roland. Almost anything is possible. They don't have to make sense when he's involved:-)
To a certain extent I'm ignoring RD in my predictions as he's proven impossible to predict. The Aussies are hanging around for a reason, and I don't believe they're simply hoping for extra investors to magically appear. So they must believe the RD will eventually drop the price and are willing to wait him out, secure in the knowledge that nobody is gazump them in the meantime by matching RD's crazy price.
RD has the money to play chicken indefinitely, but the cost cutting at The Valley seems to indicate he's getting fed up losing the amount he has been losing each month.
Think I've said it before elswhere(?). The really frustrating thing with the whole 'Aussie' saga is that (I feel) they royally mugged us off back in May.
They pitched up at The Valley, adorned in their finest CAFC regalia, masquerading like antipodean saviours, giving us all the impression that it was imminent!
Now hindsight is a beautiful thing, but their modus operandi at that time was both naive and gullible. Getting the hopes up of the faithful was an incredibly arrogant, and at the same time immature, thing to do when they clearly hadn't crossed the line and 'made the deal'.
Sadly, that imminence has manifested itself in the finest of takeover traditions!
Perhaps, but why did Murphy go to Shrewsbury, where he wouldn't have been seen without a little detective work? They thought it was happening is the answer, IMO.
I don’t know why I keep checking this maybe I am proving the theory of insanity by doing the same thing expecting a different result. All I can say what has happened to my club has broken my heart. And sadly I don’t think the Aussies are going to be the ones to fix it.
Is that view just a personal opinion or based on noises off in Australia?
I don’t really understand the silence from the Aussies, club are clearly happy to talk about them as the potential purchasers. They need to break their silence.
@JamesSeed - did you get a response from GM? Looks like they need to get their fingers out pronto.
This.
Better hurry up or the mystery, non existent! load of cobblers party will get their hands on it!
.................Or just wait till next summer and pay half of what you offered this summer.
I genuinely don’t believe that they were ever going to purchase us at the price agreed as they did not and do not have the funding in place to follow through on the deal .
And I do believe that others are still showing an interest and it’s for this reason shit roland two shit cheap Belgian chalets for sale is hanging around like a hard to reach shit clinker that makes your eyes water when you find it
No offense, but who told you that? They may be right, or they may be wrong, but unless you say who told you it's hard to judge really. But yes, they may still be struggling to make up the numbers, I wouldn't know. I guess we may not look a very attractive proposition to some, investment wise, especially if you're trying to attract funding for a five year plan. Duchâtelet won't care about that. He just wants his money back. What a bloody mess.
The Australians themselves have made it perfectly clear that they are seeking investors to buy the club. Ergo, they do not have sufficient funds to do so. As for, '...they may be struggling to make up the numbers...' , there is no 'may' about it. At present,they don't have the money: that is empirical fact.
Oh really? How much is "the money" then? Source? and beyond the headline figure which presumably you have sourced, how is it/was it affected by, e.g.:
- the sale of players after the overall price was agreed - what happens to sell-on fees for such as Gomez or Lookman? - is the price you will provide to us, all to be paid now, or in stages, or perhaps based on future performance, such as FAPL status?
Looking forward to the interesting empirical facts that shed light on these questions.
You answer this question: if they had the money why are they - and the bloke they hired at Everton - looking for investors? And try not to be an old drama queen about it.
I wouldn't be surprised if any potentisl new bidders or those lurking in the shadows are just biding their time & waiting to pick us up on the cheap under a "distressed sale" or suchlike.
Perhaps that's the Aussies' intention?
A bit of a dangerous game for a buyer to be playing with a football club potentially "on the brink" imo. If it all goes wrong, they can still walk away relatively unharmed, while the Club does from worse to even worsed
OK, let's try a little analogy.
You contact me privately and tell me that you want to sell your bijou French pile. I come and take a look and like ti. Then you tell me the price. On checking, I find it's over the market benchmark by 25%. When i go back to you, you admit that you forgot to show me that you have converted the basement to a bomb - proof firing range which cost you €200k to install. I point out that I have no need of a firing range in my cellar. You then say that if you do not sell soon, you will be in deep financial shit. You might expect my sympathy. But would you really then expect me to pay your sale price?
That wasn't the point I was trying to make. Chizz suggested that maybe the Aussies are holding out to get the Club on the cheap (in relation to RD's stupid asking price), which is fine, for them. But if this is the case, all the time they wait and potentially scare off other people, the Club is going down the pan and all the time, there's actually no telling if RD will knock anything much off.
In answer to your question though - It wouldn't happen because if I ever over developed my house, I'd accept that I'd have to take a loss (so I agree with you on that). BUT if I did push my luck and done as you described above, I just wouldn't expect to see you again and if I did I'd think, hold up he's either very keen or very wierd, let's see how much he will actually pay.
People ask far too much for their houses all the time and, most of the time, end up not selling because they're too stubborn and watch far too much More4
@JamesSeed - did you get a response from GM? Looks like they need to get their fingers out pronto.
This.
Better hurry up or the mystery, non existent! load of cobblers party will get their hands on it!
.................Or just wait till next summer and pay half of what you offered this summer.
I genuinely don’t believe that they were ever going to purchase us at the price agreed as they did not and do not have the funding in place to follow through on the deal .
And I do believe that others are still showing an interest and it’s for this reason shit roland two shit cheap Belgian chalets for sale is hanging around like a hard to reach shit clinker that makes your eyes water when you find it
No offense, but who told you that? They may be right, or they may be wrong, but unless you say who told you it's hard to judge really. But yes, they may still be struggling to make up the numbers, I wouldn't know. I guess we may not look a very attractive proposition to some, investment wise, especially if you're trying to attract funding for a five year plan. Duchâtelet won't care about that. He just wants his money back. What a bloody mess.
The Australians themselves have made it perfectly clear that they are seeking investors to buy the club. Ergo, they do not have sufficient funds to do so. As for, '...they may be struggling to make up the numbers...' , there is no 'may' about it. At present,they don't have the money: that is empirical fact.
Oh really? How much is "the money" then? Source? and beyond the headline figure which presumably you have sourced, how is it/was it affected by, e.g.:
- the sale of players after the overall price was agreed - what happens to sell-on fees for such as Gomez or Lookman? - is the price you will provide to us, all to be paid now, or in stages, or perhaps based on future performance, such as FAPL status?
Looking forward to the interesting empirical facts that shed light on these questions.
You answer this question: if they had the money why are they - and the bloke they hired at Everton - looking for investors? And try not to be an old drama queen about it.
Ignoring the gratuitous personal insult, where is the link to the "empirical fact" you speak of? You appear only to have a story that the Aussies would like more members of their consortium. Assuming this is true, and I believe you got this from a single media source, that could be for several reasons. One that I could well imagine is that a couple of earlier members dropped out when they realised that RD was asking ridiculous money and not shifting from that position. They may have concluded that at such a price their investment made no rational business sense.
Wasn't the Everton guy hired by the club to find buyers? If so, then of course he's still looking for investors, Roland is desperately hoping somebody will pay his crazy price.
The club SIMPLY isn't worth £40m. It's worth, right now £1, with RD writing off a significant part of the debt and to stop losing money each month.
It's a business that each month costs more to run that it generates in cash. RD will never be able to change that because the fans won't come to the ground, the assets have been stripped and young players won't want to join or stay at a club where the fans hate the owners.
Give up RD. Sell it for £1. Get a sensible repayment plan in place from the new owners who can then use funds to build the playing side back up, hopefully bring the fans back, get out of League 1 and hopefully onwards and upwards.
I bought a business this year in March. Last year it was a bigger company than mine. They wanted £16m for it. It was losing money despite the size of it and the historical asset base. By October their owner wanted £4.5m for it. Still nobody bought it. I closed the deal in March this year for ZERO consideration, the bank wrote off half it's debt, the old owner lost a sizeable amount of money. It now trades in profit because the old crap was removed from it and it's my best asset as it is has no old financing costs or debt with it. I have to repay a sensible amount to the bank in 2 years' time, plus a profit share.
The deal is very much like the Charlton deal. Many people looked at the company because of its prestige and industry reputation (old reputation). They came in and offered anywhere between £4 and £6m for it. Then when they were asked to prove funds, they couldn't or didn't.
I'm telling you the Aussies wanted to pay £40m because the people brokering the deal would be getting a fee. The people they could/might attract would have deep pockets if they could buy Charlton for £40m and fund the next 5 years.
It isn't going to happen because CAFC loses money every year, the players have mostly all been sold and football financing is crazy.
RD will have to basically give CAFC away if he wants out. Nothing else will happen.
I don’t know why I keep checking this maybe I am proving the theory of insanity by doing the same thing expecting a different result. All I can say what has happened to my club has broken my heart. And sadly I don’t think the Aussies are going to be the ones to fix it.
This
However, for variety and extra woe I now look at the no bonus thread, CARD protest and fans forum.
@JamesSeed - did you get a response from GM? Looks like they need to get their fingers out pronto.
This.
Better hurry up or the mystery, non existent! load of cobblers party will get their hands on it!
.................Or just wait till next summer and pay half of what you offered this summer.
I genuinely don’t believe that they were ever going to purchase us at the price agreed as they did not and do not have the funding in place to follow through on the deal .
And I do believe that others are still showing an interest and it’s for this reason shit roland two shit cheap Belgian chalets for sale is hanging around like a hard to reach shit clinker that makes your eyes water when you find it
No offense, but who told you that? They may be right, or they may be wrong, but unless you say who told you it's hard to judge really. But yes, they may still be struggling to make up the numbers, I wouldn't know. I guess we may not look a very attractive proposition to some, investment wise, especially if you're trying to attract funding for a five year plan. Duchâtelet won't care about that. He just wants his money back. What a bloody mess.
The Australians themselves have made it perfectly clear that they are seeking investors to buy the club. Ergo, they do not have sufficient funds to do so. As for, '...they may be struggling to make up the numbers...' , there is no 'may' about it. At present,they don't have the money: that is empirical fact.
Oh really? How much is "the money" then? Source? and beyond the headline figure which presumably you have sourced, how is it/was it affected by, e.g.:
- the sale of players after the overall price was agreed - what happens to sell-on fees for such as Gomez or Lookman? - is the price you will provide to us, all to be paid now, or in stages, or perhaps based on future performance, such as FAPL status?
Looking forward to the interesting empirical facts that shed light on these questions.
You answer this question: if they had the money why are they - and the bloke they hired at Everton - looking for investors? And try not to be an old drama queen about it.
Is there any proof that the Everton guy was hired by the Aussies as opposed to by the club and / or any other interested parties?
Wasn't the Everton guy hired by the club to find buyers? If so, then of course he's still looking for investors, Roland is desperately hoping somebody will pay his crazy price.
Does anyone on here know how much clubs like Oxford, Huddersfield, Bournemouth (albeit a few years ago now) and Portsmouth were sold for? There's Sunderland too, of course, but that's maybe a different situation with the debt write-off.
Even with London wages and costs I really can't believe CAFC is worth £40m in the 3rd tier.
Anyone who buys us at that price is creating a severe financial handicap for themselves.
We keep hearing that the price has been agreed [between the owner and party?]. Then why would one of assumed reasons for the conclusion of the sale be that the party is not prepared to pay the asking price and waiting for the price to drop! Doesn’t make sense. I don’t think the Aussies have a problem meeting the asking price but it’s more to do with gathering the financial backing for 5 years (and possibly more). That’s a difficult proposition to sell...and for what? Assuming we hit the jackpot in 5 years time, how much would each investor get back? Don’t forget that they would have to further invest in the quality players that not only cost to buy but also to keep up with the extortionate wages. It looks like they have found some mugs but not enough hence the protracted negotiation. The second party allegedly on the horizon has seen the Aussies stall but they are content they have the shillings to take the club forward and using the Aussie delay as part of their negotiations (its costing RD to lose £500k a month) RD could accept a reduced amount.
I can't argue with any of the above in the absence of info from the Aussies. Perhaps replacement potential investors did their own DD and came up with 'you've gotta be kidding me!'
I've sent a message saying it might be a good time to make their own statement.
The burning question is: do you know (or can you make it a priority to find out please in your next conversation with your connection) if the consortium are aiming to finance...
a) The purchase of the club + funds to see us through to 2019 (so, £40m + £10m = £50)
b) The purchase of the club + the five year plan to get us to the PL (or, at the very least, establish us in the Championship) - and here we're talking £150m+
The answer is important because, if it's (a) that means they don't really have a pot to piss in and the idea of a five year plan is pure conjecture.
Put another way, if Muir insists that there are no 'majority shareholders' (and he obviously isn't prepared to finance the project alone), and given a rumoured range of £4m minimum to £10 maximum per investor, if they're looking for £150m+ that's an awful lot of minimum investors to find - and it's a pretty high risk investment.
Look at the likes of Derby, Viulla, Leeds, Birmingham, Notts Forest etc. All languishing in the mire for years: there's no guarantee of a promised land and I really do wonder if the Aussie investment isn't just another piece of pie in the Sky...
I've said it before & I'll say it again..........IF and its a big IF, the Aussies are simply delaying the purchase so that they dont have to pay now & are waiting until December then that is a very high risk strategy. We all know that we are short on players NOW and that by January we could be well off the pace in terms of table position. Surely the quicker you buy the club the quicker you can sort out the problems - get players in before the loan window shuts & give yourself half a chance to be top 6/top 10 by January when you can re-assess and then buy the players you need. As every game passess & we don't win then we are getting worse.
as I said...........its a big IF...........and if true then they are more foolish than I ever thought possible.
Each month that goes, it's costing RD money. So why is he happy to sit there putting in more money each month whilst 2 parties apparently take their sweet time completing paperwork.
From the buyers side, there are two parties who have spent money doing DD, have no issues with the deal but haven't got round to signing off.
So, if (b) has always been the objective... if we're talking (ball park) £140m of funding, the idea of attracting multiple high-risk investors at between c.£4-10m is ludicrous and will never happen ... my words in italics, feel free to substitute anything from 'highly achievable IMO to yes, I agree, it's insane'
I heard that they asked Russell Crowe to join as an investor but two of the other investors said they would not go ahead if he was to join, as this was an Aussie takeover and he is a Kiwi after all.
and do you realise that, at £4m a pop, that's 25 would-be investors that they've been searching for over a year... at an extremely high risk with absolutely no guarantee whatsoever of ever getting a penny back?
And if we do actually get to the PL when do they get paid out, these myriad investors? You need a very solid Championship winning team + £40m to even have a chance of surviving the first PL season.
The chances of payback are, at the very best, extremely slim.
If paperwork at the EFL really is the problem then no wonder, with so many people concerned.
And if, after all that money gets poured in, and we do a Leeds and stay in the Championship for 20 years?
Comments
They pitched up at The Valley, adorned in their finest CAFC regalia, masquerading like antipodean saviours, giving us all the impression that it was imminent!
Now hindsight is a beautiful thing, but their modus operandi at that time was both naive and gullible. Getting the hopes up of the faithful was an incredibly arrogant, and at the same time immature, thing to do when they clearly hadn't crossed the line and 'made the deal'.
Sadly, that imminence has manifested itself in the finest of takeover traditions!
RD has the money to play chicken indefinitely, but the cost cutting at The Valley seems to indicate he's getting fed up losing the amount he has been losing each month.
And try not to be an old drama queen about it.
In answer to your question though - It wouldn't happen because if I ever over developed my house, I'd accept that I'd have to take a loss (so I agree with you on that). BUT if I did push my luck and done as you described above, I just wouldn't expect to see you again and if I did I'd think, hold up he's either very keen or very wierd, let's see how much he will actually pay.
People ask far too much for their houses all the time and, most of the time, end up not selling because they're too stubborn and watch far too much More4
https://www.kentlive.news/sport/football/charlton-athletic-fans-react-roland-655786
However, for variety and extra woe I now look at the no bonus thread, CARD protest and fans forum.
Even with London wages and costs I really can't believe CAFC is worth £40m in the 3rd tier.
Anyone who buys us at that price is creating a severe financial handicap for themselves.
I don’t think the Aussies have a problem meeting the asking price but it’s more to do with gathering the financial backing for 5 years (and possibly more). That’s a difficult proposition to sell...and for what? Assuming we hit the jackpot in 5 years time, how much would each investor get back? Don’t forget that they would have to further invest in the quality players that not only cost to buy but also to keep up with the extortionate wages.
It looks like they have found some mugs but not enough hence the protracted negotiation.
The second party allegedly on the horizon has seen the Aussies stall but they are content they have the shillings to take the club forward and using the Aussie delay as part of their negotiations (its costing RD to lose £500k a month) RD could accept a reduced amount.
Stay tuned...
a) The purchase of the club + funds to see us through to 2019 (so, £40m + £10m = £50)
b) The purchase of the club + the five year plan to get us to the PL (or, at the very least, establish us in the Championship) - and here we're talking £150m+
The answer is important because, if it's (a) that means they don't really have a pot to piss in and the idea of a five year plan is pure conjecture.
Put another way, if Muir insists that there are no 'majority shareholders' (and he obviously isn't prepared to finance the project alone), and given a rumoured range of £4m minimum to £10 maximum per investor, if they're looking for £150m+ that's an awful lot of minimum investors to find - and it's a pretty high risk investment.
Look at the likes of Derby, Viulla, Leeds, Birmingham, Notts Forest etc. All languishing in the mire for years: there's no guarantee of a promised land and I really do wonder if the Aussie investment isn't just another piece of pie in the Sky...
as I said...........its a big IF...........and if true then they are more foolish than I ever thought possible.
From the buyers side, there are two parties who have spent money doing DD, have no issues with the deal but haven't got round to signing off.
Don't believe it at all.
And if we do actually get to the PL when do they get paid out, these myriad investors? You need a very solid Championship winning team + £40m to even have a chance of surviving the first PL season.
The chances of payback are, at the very best, extremely slim.
If paperwork at the EFL really is the problem then no wonder, with so many people concerned.
And if, after all that money gets poured in, and we do a Leeds and stay in the Championship for 20 years?