French election first round on Sunday. 4 candidates with fairly even polling at the moment, if they end up with a run off between Mélenchon and Le Pen, then the chaos that will cause on the markets and to the EU will massively overshadow Brexit. For a start, I don't think the Euro would survive under either candidate...
That's a fair comment on the doomsday scenario there. As to whether that scenario will come to pass, I note that since Brexit:
- the Austrians turned away from the Far Right presidential candidate in the rerun in September - in the Netherlands, Willders polled below expectations - in Germany the SPD is reviving to challenge Merkel from the (moderate) left, while the AfD leader has resigned.
So the lesson is, if you are getting your news about European countries through the prism of the UK media, it might turn out not to be the full picture.
What's changed in France, is that previously it was assumed a moderate (e.g. Macron) would get through to the last two and beat Le Pen easily. The "anyone but Le Pen" candidate.
The difference now is that he has lost some support, and Melenchon is gaining. Melechon's policies (for different reasons) are just as radical and divisive as Le Pen's, and are far to the left of Corbyn's for example. Leaving aside his tax plans, he wants to renegotiate EU treaties and quit Nato, the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and end independence of European Central Bank and take control of Bank of France...
Yes, sure, but let's wait and see. Much of the UK media was getting similarly frothy (at both ends of the spectrum) about a big Wilders victory. It didn't happen. And when it didn't happen, the UK media stopped talking about the previously "crucially important" "bellweather" Netherlands. Why? Did it sink into the sea or something?
Wilders may have lost the election but he dragged Rutte and others towards his politics. Similar to how very few people expect UKIP to do well in this election.
The Austrian re-run was hardly a ringing endorsement of centrists.
Hungary and Poland remain under control of would-be autocrats.
The last French poll I saw had Macron out ahead and Melenchon narrowly beating Le Pen to the run-off.
Is it me or has the only one that has 100% backed JC to be prime minister on the 9th June is Diane Abbott? Every other labour mp stutters and stumbles when asked if Jezza is the right perspn to take them into an election.
Is it me or has the only one that has 100% backed JC to be prime minister on the 9th June is Diane Abbott? Every other labour mp stutters and stumbles when asked if Jezza is the right perspn to take them into an election.
Urghh. While the concept of a politicians success being dependent upon how many fellow politicians they have slept with is truly depressing, it would be even more depressing if Jeremy Corbyn succeeded as a result of clandestine affairs.
Urghh. While the concept of a politicians success being dependent upon how many fellow politicians they have slept with is truly depressing, it would be even more depressing if Jeremy Corbyn succeeded as a result of clandestine affairs.
It's difficult to look at Diane Abbott and feel envious of Corbyn.
At least it gives Labour a chance to get rid of Corbyn in 2017 instead of waiting until after he would have lost in 2020.
Yeah. John McDonnell will have Labour voters flooding back and the Tories bricking it.
The Labour Party is done for. It's been hijacked by the extreme left and that isn't going to change now. They will elect loser after loser until they disappear into the Permanant talking shop Corbyn has presided over.
The only good news I see is that post this election we might see the emergence of a fledgling centre left party. Will take years to come together but by god the country needs an opposition.
Extreme left?
Yes Baldric, the extreme left.
Quite the hyperbole there, he's left wing but far from extreme left.
The party has been hijacked. The system for electing the leader means that all the extreme left nut jobs including Momentum have found a home and a way of having a left wing leader with extreme left wing policies or he's /She's out. Corbyn himself is extreme left by modern political standards. His policies not moved on since the seventies. Anyone that thinks the Labour Party will elect post Corbyn anyone other than another left winger who is seen by the public as unelectable is I'm afraid mistaken. That's why labour is moribund.
Disagree on your first part but agree on the second. It was a fair way of electing a leader, it was just exploited better by Corbyn. Anyone could have signed up if they cared enough about who leads the party. And on your point about him being extreme left by modern standards is quite a sad indictment of how right wing politics has become in the modern day. I still wouldn't say he is extreme left but yes he is much further left than the general political landscape at the moment.
Corbyn is far left by Labour party standards. Even ignoring New Labour, they're previous 2 PMs Wilson and Callaghan were centrist politicians. For every Tony Benn, there were Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey and Shirley Williams
Yes I understand. My point at the beginning still stands, he is not extreme left. It's a bit like calling UKIP extreme right. I'm sure SHG only brought it up to get in about the trade unions. Not sure why this debate has even been going on this long tbh.
What I said originally was "labour has been hijacked by the extreme left" and I stand by that.
I didn't bring anything up to specifically talk about Trade Unions. I only did so to highlight the fact that it is a trade union leader who is now kingmaker with regards to the labour leader. I don't think anyone would argue that McClusky got Ed elected over David and subsequently Corbyn over his opponents. McClusky is very left wing. Add to his disproportionate say we have Momentum and other fringe left wing groups who now have a home in what's left of the Labour Party.
I was chatting to my missus about how different things could have been recently if the other Miliband brother has been selected instead. Choosing EM was an open goal for the Tories supported by our overwhelmingly right wing press who were never going to give him a chance. DM was always likely to be a far more credible candidate and I think we may have had a hung parliament as a result or a Labour administration with a small majority.
We'd have had no referendum as a result and if you want to get really out there, given how often he mentioned it and marketed it as an example of giving the elite classes a bloody nose, no Trump either.
She certainly doesn't talk for me !!!! I love elections & labour supporters should welcome it as well as Corbyn will be ousted on June 9th after his party polls fewer seats than 2 years ago and they can then elect a leader who isn't living in the 1970's.
At least it gives Labour a chance to get rid of Corbyn in 2017 instead of waiting until after he would have lost in 2020.
Yeah. John McDonnell will have Labour voters flooding back and the Tories bricking it.
The Labour Party is done for. It's been hijacked by the extreme left and that isn't going to change now. They will elect loser after loser until they disappear into the Permanant talking shop Corbyn has presided over.
The only good news I see is that post this election we might see the emergence of a fledgling centre left party. Will take years to come together but by god the country needs an opposition.
Extreme left?
Yes Baldric, the extreme left.
Quite the hyperbole there, he's left wing but far from extreme left.
The party has been hijacked. The system for electing the leader means that all the extreme left nut jobs including Momentum have found a home and a way of having a left wing leader with extreme left wing policies or he's /She's out. Corbyn himself is extreme left by modern political standards. His policies not moved on since the seventies. Anyone that thinks the Labour Party will elect post Corbyn anyone other than another left winger who is seen by the public as unelectable is I'm afraid mistaken. That's why labour is moribund.
Disagree on your first part but agree on the second. It was a fair way of electing a leader, it was just exploited better by Corbyn. Anyone could have signed up if they cared enough about who leads the party. And on your point about him being extreme left by modern standards is quite a sad indictment of how right wing politics has become in the modern day. I still wouldn't say he is extreme left but yes he is much further left than the general political landscape at the moment.
Corbyn is far left by Labour party standards. Even ignoring New Labour, they're previous 2 PMs Wilson and Callaghan were centrist politicians. For every Tony Benn, there were Roy Jenkins, Dennis Healey and Shirley Williams
Yes I understand. My point at the beginning still stands, he is not extreme left. It's a bit like calling UKIP extreme right. I'm sure SHG only brought it up to get in about the trade unions. Not sure why this debate has even been going on this long tbh.
What I said originally was "labour has been hijacked by the extreme left" and I stand by that.
I didn't bring anything up to specifically talk about Trade Unions. I only did so to highlight the fact that it is a trade union leader who is now kingmaker with regards to the labour leader. I don't think anyone would argue that McClusky got Ed elected over David and subsequently Corbyn over his opponents. McClusky is very left wing. Add to his disproportionate say we have Momentum and other fringe left wing groups who now have a home in what's left of the Labour Party.
I was chatting to my missus about how different things could have been recently if the other Miliband brother has been selected instead. Choosing EM was an open goal for the Tories supported by our overwhelmingly right wing press who were never going to give him a chance. DM was always likely to be a far more credible candidate and I think we may have had a hung parliament as a result or a Labour administration with a small majority.
We'd have had no referendum as a result and if you want to get really out there, given how often he mentioned it and marketed it as an example of giving the elite classes a bloody nose, no Trump either.
The Labour Party didn't choose EM. He was imposed on the Labour Party by McClusky and the Unite union. It was the beginning of the end for the Labour Party.
Thanks for the various comments re Clive Efford and Eltham. The dilemma that @ShootersHillGuru and I have highlights the weakness of the FPP voting system. Right now I think I will probably vote for him but do everything I can to make it clear that it's despite Corbyn, and Labour's pathetic stance on Brexit.
@Airman Brown , it's all very well saying Corbyn will be gone in June, but from a distance it seems to me that Labour has been captured by a load of Soshulist Workah muppets whom I last encountered at Portsmouth Polytechnic. I don't like the idea of my vote being used by them to claim a big "Soshulist" mandate exists, when I consider myself to be one of millions of modern centrist voters who rarely feel adequately represented in the UK (but who are spoilt for choice in Germany).
I think getting rid of FPP is the over riding political issue of the moment for so many reasons. How anybody can call themselves a believer in Democracy and not see the inequities of the current system beggars belief.
Bit early to predict as a lot will depend on how parties run their campaigns and their central messages.
However, I reckon it could end up like this:
1. Large turnout to support Brexit and Remain opinions. 2. Tories get larger majority due to Brexit voters 3. Remainers from Labour, LD's and some Tories vote for LibDems. 4. Voters desert Labour as few actually want Corbyn/Momentum. 5. LibDems become official opposition and Labour pushed to third place. 6. SNP lose seats to Tories in Scotland due to dislike of the Krankie.
The Tories have started their campaign incredibly confidently. For those who are politically ambivalent (which by now is probably a lot of the country) I suspect political colour is less important than a confident leader - look how well Thatcher and Blair did at the polls when they were on top of their game.
You're underestimating the resilience of the Labour vote and overestimating the Lib Dems, who have nothing on the ground in most constituencies. I hope!
I'm sure the Labour vote will remain resilient - just not enough against what I think could be a pro-Remain protest vote for the Lib Dems. I don't think the Libs have a lot on the ground - but I also think Labour have lost a lot of headway - particularly since Corbyn became leader. I tore up my Labour Party membership card when Brown became PM.
My prediction: MPs decide tomorrow not to hold a general election but choose the quicker solution of a crossbar challenge at The Valley. Charlton supporters are invited to be the only partcipants. May remains in power for the next thirty years.
At least it gives Labour a chance to get rid of Corbyn in 2017 instead of waiting until after he would have lost in 2020.
Yeah. John McDonnell will have Labour voters flooding back and the Tories bricking it.
The Labour Party is done for. It's been hijacked by the extreme left and that isn't going to change now. They will elect loser after loser until they disappear into the Permanant talking shop Corbyn has presided over.
The only good news I see is that post this election we might see the emergence of a fledgling centre left party. Will take years to come together but by god the country needs an opposition.
Extreme left?
Yes Baldric, the extreme left.
Corbyn occupies the same space on the political spectrum as Podemos in Spain and Melenchon in France. The Spanish far left and the French Presidential candidate both poll at 20% which is the direction Corbyn is taking Labour!
This is relevant because the European centre left is falling apart for a number of reasons best illustrated by the 58:42 Brexit landslide outside richer metropolitan areas.
Same thing in the US rust belt and in NE France where the left have been replaced by Le Pen and Trump.
Ordinary working people have not been served well by growth in GDP.
For what it's worth I welcome this election call for it will hopefully hasten the end of Corbyn, give metropolitan remain voters a voice and most importantly it creates more time between Brexit and the next election in 2022.
And that enhances the chances of a "soft" Brexit in the interim leaving the four freedoms intact with a Norway style deal. Strong players with mandates on both sides will surely help - Why?
Because May wants Brexit to work and doesn't want to kill off our exports nor foreign investment. And nobody needs to be held hostage by the extremes. She was Home Secretary for six years while immigration rose to fill vacancies so she is pragmatic. Three years between Brexit and June 2022 need to be managed very carefully.
By the time of our election we will know the next French President plus some Italian banks may have been recapitalized mitigating the risk of an Italian crash. This matters because it neuters the "eurozone" in collapse narrative. For sure there will be an anti Islam and anti foreigner element but is that really going to get much traction?
Obviously Melenchon might make it into the second round next Sunday but his polls have hit a plateau.
This matters because this is fundamental to both the Euro and the position of the 27 in our negotiations. For those not aware Le Pen and Melenchon are both anti Euro and anti EU although they have toned this down as the French electorate are actually pro European!
This election gives us all a chance to "move on" and get in touch with the debate for the next decade which looks to be one of the most important in our lives - the world is going to be a very, very different place by 2027.
We are not going to have another referendum on Brexit (and hopefully nothing else! ) so how people voted on that becomes somewhat irrelevant. It is why they voted which matters.
The Lib Dems have come out in favour of remaining in the EEA so it will be interesting to see how they fare. And whether business interests provide them with significant backing.
Perhaps like the 80s a rally in the middle ground will encourage Labour to shift back to the centre? Or perhaps both parties will move towards 20%?
In other words there is a way to steer through the challenges on both sides of the Channel. And May with a 100 seat majority sitting down with Merkel, Fillon/ Macron and the other centre Europeans makes for a good outcome.
PS for those interested, French polls are published daily up until Friday. There are four candidates in with a chance of making the second round. The far right and far left are using the same narrative as Trump and Sanders and throwing in unaffordable retirement at 60 as a nice little bribe! Le Pen has now moved into full on anti Islam / jobs for the French mode this week.
She was tipped to come first then lose the second round but has slipped behind Macron.
As a businessman with a stake in not having a hard Brexit, I know one party which is definitely not going to represent me! I don't trust Corbyn on Europe or the economy - so what the Liberals say is going to be of great interest to me. They need to position themselves as the party of Europe and try to appeal to both right and left leaning voters. If they can't do it, somebodyelse has to.
But even if they can get their message straight are they going to be able to effectively communicate it in seven weeks ?
I fear that what will happen is that the Lib Dems will pick up votes from slightly left learning remainers (me for example) who would normally vote Labour but will do very little to dent the Tory vote and, given FPP, that just points to a comfortable Tory majority. The Lib Dems are too far back to really pose a threat, Labour's leader is too hated for them to do anything other than crash, the Tory party will pick up a ton of UKIP voters as they are currently making all their dreams come true with their Brexit rhetoric - its "game" and "set" to Ms May, it'll be "match" in June.
Is it me or has the only one that has 100% backed JC to be prime minister on the 9th June is Diane Abbott? Every other labour mp stutters and stumbles when asked if Jezza is the right perspn to take them into an election.
Seen comments on a Scottish friends Facebook post this morning and a lot of his friends seem to be going from SNP (and obviously voting NO in the Scot. Ref.) to voting Tory in this erection, one saying quote " Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
Seen comments on a Scottish friends Facebook post this morning and a lot of his friends seem to be going from SNP (and obviously voting NO in the Scot. Ref.) to voting Tory in this erection, one saying quote " Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
Seen comments on a Scottish friends Facebook post this morning and a lot of his friends seem to be going from SNP (and obviously voting NO in the Scot. Ref.) to voting Tory in this erection, one saying quote " Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
Seen comments on a Scottish friends Facebook post this morning and a lot of his friends seem to be going from SNP (and obviously voting NO in the Scot. Ref.) to voting Tory in this erection, one saying quote " Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
I wonder if May expects to weaken Sturgeon in Scotland, essentially backing her away from her Indy Referendum talk?
I see that the Scottish Conservatives are explicitly stating that a vote for them is a vote against a second Independence Referendum, and of course their led by a staunch remainer in Ruth Davidson.
Seen comments on a Scottish friends Facebook post this morning and a lot of his friends seem to be going from SNP (and obviously voting NO in the Scot. Ref.) to voting Tory in this erection, one saying quote " Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
He's not wrong.
And she reckons she's voted SNP for long time, full quote - "I’m Scottish through and through and have always been a staunch supporter of independence. Also I’ve supported the SNP for many years - until now. For the first time ever I will be voting tory at the GE. I cannot vote for Sturgeon and her party although I did vote Yes at the last Scottish referendum. Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
Out of about 15 odd people who have commented, they all agree accept one bloke. I know this isn't an accurate reflection, but interesting I thought
Seen comments on a Scottish friends Facebook post this morning and a lot of his friends seem to be going from SNP (and obviously voting NO in the Scot. Ref.) to voting Tory in this erection, one saying quote " Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
They must find that hard.
Thought I'd "stick it in" when ad where I could. Funny ain't I
Seen comments on a Scottish friends Facebook post this morning and a lot of his friends seem to be going from SNP (and obviously voting NO in the Scot. Ref.) to voting Tory in this erection, one saying quote " Sturgeon’s government has done nothing for the people of Scotland except try to turn us into a total welfare state."
They must find that hard.
Thought I'd "stick it in" when ad where I could. Funny ain't I
Comments
The Austrian re-run was hardly a ringing endorsement of centrists.
Hungary and Poland remain under control of would-be autocrats.
The last French poll I saw had Macron out ahead and Melenchon narrowly beating Le Pen to the run-off.
Vote Monster Raving Loony.
We'd have had no referendum as a result and if you want to get really out there, given how often he mentioned it and marketed it as an example of giving the elite classes a bloody nose, no Trump either.
MPs decide tomorrow not to hold a general election but choose the quicker solution of a crossbar challenge at The Valley.
Charlton supporters are invited to be the only partcipants.
May remains in power for the next thirty years.
This is relevant because the European centre left is falling apart for a number of reasons best illustrated by the 58:42 Brexit landslide outside richer metropolitan areas.
Same thing in the US rust belt and in NE France where the left have been replaced by Le Pen and Trump.
Ordinary working people have not been served well by growth in GDP.
For what it's worth I welcome this election call for it will hopefully hasten the end of Corbyn, give metropolitan remain voters a voice and most importantly it creates more time between Brexit and the next election in 2022.
And that enhances the chances of a "soft" Brexit in the interim leaving the four freedoms intact with a Norway style deal. Strong players with mandates on both sides will surely help -
Why?
Because May wants Brexit to work and doesn't want to kill off our exports nor foreign investment. And nobody needs to be held hostage by the extremes. She was Home Secretary for six years while immigration rose to fill vacancies so she is pragmatic. Three years between Brexit and June 2022 need to be managed very carefully.
By the time of our election we will know the next French President plus some Italian banks may have been recapitalized mitigating the risk of an Italian crash. This matters because it neuters the "eurozone" in collapse narrative. For sure there will be an anti Islam and anti foreigner element but is that really going to get much traction?
Obviously Melenchon might make it into the second round next Sunday but his polls have hit a plateau.
This matters because this is fundamental to both the Euro and the position of the 27 in our negotiations. For those not aware Le Pen and Melenchon are both anti Euro and anti EU although they have toned this down as the French electorate are actually pro European!
This election gives us all a chance to "move on" and get in touch with the debate for the next decade which looks to be one of the most important in our lives - the world is going to be a very, very different place by 2027.
We are not going to have another referendum on Brexit (and hopefully nothing else! ) so how people voted on that becomes somewhat irrelevant. It is why they voted which matters.
The Lib Dems have come out in favour of remaining in the EEA so it will be interesting to see how they fare. And whether business interests provide them with significant backing.
Perhaps like the 80s a rally in the middle ground will encourage Labour to shift back to the centre? Or perhaps both parties will move towards 20%?
In other words there is a way to steer through the challenges on both sides of the Channel. And May with a 100 seat majority sitting down with Merkel, Fillon/ Macron and the other centre Europeans makes for a good outcome.
PS for those interested, French polls are published daily up until Friday. There are four candidates in with a chance of making the second round. The far right and far left are using the same narrative as Trump and Sanders and throwing in unaffordable retirement at 60 as a nice little bribe! Le Pen has now moved into full on anti Islam / jobs for the French mode this week.
She was tipped to come first then lose the second round but has slipped behind Macron.
I fear that what will happen is that the Lib Dems will pick up votes from slightly left learning remainers (me for example) who would normally vote Labour but will do very little to dent the Tory vote and, given FPP, that just points to a comfortable Tory majority. The Lib Dems are too far back to really pose a threat, Labour's leader is too hated for them to do anything other than crash, the Tory party will pick up a ton of UKIP voters as they are currently making all their dreams come true with their Brexit rhetoric - its "game" and "set" to Ms May, it'll be "match" in June.
Not sure but I think The Mail may be getting behind Maggie MkII
And they're trying to make her look good!
I see that the Scottish Conservatives are explicitly stating that a vote for them is a vote against a second Independence Referendum, and of course their led by a staunch remainer in Ruth Davidson.
Out of about 15 odd people who have commented, they all agree accept one bloke. I know this isn't an accurate reflection, but interesting I thought