Tory and Labour coalition would never happen but the equivalent happens in other countries fairly often when coalitions are the way forward. If ever there were a time for it, the next 5 years of Brexit uncertainty would probably be the time. Allowing a reset when we begin a new world outside the EU.
One of CL's vocal Tories reduced to this? Lovely, lovely stuff
Bloomberg did their own numbers the other day and believed that Labour was still 90 seats short of the Tories, but another couple of points swing would bring a hung parliament.
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
Also need to remember it's not number of votes but numbers of seats. You could have another 500,000 vote labour and it not change the seats, just depend where those votes are. There are a fair few marginal seats but fairly mixed between Labour or Conservative held.
Eltham is one where Labour hold with 18.4k, Conservatives with 15.7k but UKIP took 6.5k, Efford is worried as he knows the vast majority of those who voted UKIP will likely vote conservatives this time (no UKIP standing although oddly the BNP are again). The Greens have done a deal with labour to not stand this time around. I think it will be close.
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
I reiterate it is based on nationwide seat-by-seat modelling and doesn't include all Labour seats that voted Leave only those where Tories predicted to win 45%+ (virtually guarantees the seat).
Tory and Labour coalition would never happen but the equivalent happens in other countries fairly often when coalitions are the way forward. If ever there were a time for it, the next 5 years of Brexit uncertainty would probably be the time. Allowing a reset when we begin a new world outside the EU.
One of CL's vocal Tories reduced to this? Lovely, lovely stuff
One of? More like the only one.
Don't worry - I am back in the room or normality. Just watched my favourite political clip and reminded myself of the crazy situation we find ourselves in where there is a very good chance of strangling the economic prosperity of this country purely in order to make the well off less well off.
Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green and Plaid Cymru grand coalition?
A coalition of losers would be embarrassing. If the biggest party were not involved in government........ That's what the Lib Dems were saying when they got in to bed with the Tories. It may not have been what they wanted but it was be right thing to do.
Issue now is that a) they wouldn't have enough seats and b) would they really do that again?
Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green and Plaid Cymru grand coalition?
A coalition of losers would be embarrassing. If the biggest party were not involved in government........ That's what the Lib Dems were saying when they got in to bed with the Tories. It may not have been what they wanted but it was be right thing to do.
Issue now is that a) they wouldn't have enough seats and b) would they really do that again?
Lib Dems are a busted flush. SNP were all but begging everyone to form an alliance. Would one of the northern Irish parties go with the Tories, if they needed a couple of seats for a majority?
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
I reiterate it is based on nationwide seat-by-seat modelling and doesn't include all Labour seats that voted Leave only those where Tories predicted to win 45%+ (virtually guarantees the seat).
I'd be grateful if you could point me in the direction of this 'seat-by-seat modelling' that produces the results you outline - particularly if it's largely based on how constituencies voted in the EU Referendum as I think that would be to misunderstand and oversimplify why many people voted 'Leave'.
As far as I'm aware the Recent Yougov poll that predicted a possible hung parliament was the only poll so far in this election that analysed voting intentions at a constituency level rather than simply reflecting each party's national percentage support (whether it's anything like accurate is of course another matter).
Tory and Labour coalition would never happen but the equivalent happens in other countries fairly often when coalitions are the way forward. If ever there were a time for it, the next 5 years of Brexit uncertainty would probably be the time. Allowing a reset when we begin a new world outside the EU.
One of CL's vocal Tories reduced to this? Lovely, lovely stuff
I know some of us have been caught up in the campaign, but I believe the Tories will indeed increase their majority. Probably not as much as May hoped, but that would easily be explained away. We can then watch these Tories without a plan for the Brexit negotiations proceed like Karel Fraeye in making it up as they go along. I can only hope that the people who recourse to lawful direct action, such as striking, are able to resist the guilt trip that will be tried against them as they fight to keep their working communities together. We are building a practical and philosophical wall in this country that will divide us as much as the Brexit vote has. The winners will protect their gated communities and posh post codes, and the losers will stand at the gates hopelessly hoping.
Tory and Labour coalition would never happen but the equivalent happens in other countries fairly often when coalitions are the way forward. If ever there were a time for it, the next 5 years of Brexit uncertainty would probably be the time. Allowing a reset when we begin a new world outside the EU.
One of CL's vocal Tories reduced to this? Lovely, lovely stuff
How did it feel to get my scalp?
I'm now a Politics Master, capable of adopting and proficiently defending any non-extremist position. I have ascended to the firmament
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
I reiterate it is based on nationwide seat-by-seat modelling and doesn't include all Labour seats that voted Leave only those where Tories predicted to win 45%+ (virtually guarantees the seat).
I'd be grateful if you could point me in the direction of this 'seat-by-seat modelling' that produces the results you outline - particularly if it's largely based on how constituencies voted in the EU Referendum as I think that would be to misunderstand and oversimplify why many people voted 'Leave'.
As far as I'm aware the Recent Yougov poll that predicted a possible hung parliament was the only poll so far in this election that analysed voting intentions at a constituency level rather than simply reflecting each party's national percentage support (whether it's anything like accurate is of course another matter).
It's not based on the results of the Brexit vote - my interpretation is that seats that voted Leave and are on course to vote 45%+ for Tory are highly unlikely to swing sufficiently in the last week.
There are of course several seats that voted Leave and aren't going Tory - after all 70% of Labour seats voted Leave!
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
I reiterate it is based on nationwide seat-by-seat modelling and doesn't include all Labour seats that voted Leave only those where Tories predicted to win 45%+ (virtually guarantees the seat).
I'd be grateful if you could point me in the direction of this 'seat-by-seat modelling' that produces the results you outline - particularly if it's largely based on how constituencies voted in the EU Referendum as I think that would be to misunderstand and oversimplify why many people voted 'Leave'.
As far as I'm aware the Recent Yougov poll that predicted a possible hung parliament was the only poll so far in this election that analysed voting intentions at a constituency level rather than simply reflecting each party's national percentage support (whether it's anything like accurate is of course another matter).
It's not based on the results of the Brexit vote - my interpretation is that seats that voted Leave and are on course to vote 45%+ for Tory are highly unlikely to swing sufficiently in the last week.
There are of course several seats that voted Leave and aren't going Tory - after all 70% of Labour seats voted Leave!
I think Brexit is a far less important issue than you think it is. Article 50 is triggered and Labour don't seem interested in going against the vote. Mayhem has an awful record to defend and people who have seen their finances stretched since 2010 will be looking to whoever will help put a little extra in their pocket and who will keep public services from being dismantled.
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
I reiterate it is based on nationwide seat-by-seat modelling and doesn't include all Labour seats that voted Leave only those where Tories predicted to win 45%+ (virtually guarantees the seat).
I'd be grateful if you could point me in the direction of this 'seat-by-seat modelling' that produces the results you outline - particularly if it's largely based on how constituencies voted in the EU Referendum as I think that would be to misunderstand and oversimplify why many people voted 'Leave'.
As far as I'm aware the Recent Yougov poll that predicted a possible hung parliament was the only poll so far in this election that analysed voting intentions at a constituency level rather than simply reflecting each party's national percentage support (whether it's anything like accurate is of course another matter).
It's not based on the results of the Brexit vote - my interpretation is that seats that voted Leave and are on course to vote 45%+ for Tory are highly unlikely to swing sufficiently in the last week.
There are of course several seats that voted Leave and aren't going Tory - after all 70% of Labour seats voted Leave!
I think Brexit is a far less important issue than you think it is. Article 50 is triggered and Labour don't seem interested in going against the vote. Mayhem has an awful record to defend and people who have seen their finances stretched since 2010 will be looking to whoever will help put a little extra in their pocket and who will keep public services from being dismantled.
I prefer to look at facts - I don't have a view on the relative importance of Brexit.
The probability say of any of the 238 seats that voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016 not voting for Tory in 2017 is minimal - that's more seats than Labour are likely to win in total.
Thatcher was a well polished and clever politician. That's about the best thing to say about her.
I'd add that she had clear principles, but I'd have to research to whom she was selling arms before committing to that...
For starters, there was Argentina before the Falklands War!
We're preparing to sell more just before the invasion, but had already parted with two Lynx & type 42 destroyer (a deal already planned by the previous Labour government, but completed by Thatcher) both used in the war.
Tory and Labour coalition would never happen but the equivalent happens in other countries fairly often when coalitions are the way forward. If ever there were a time for it, the next 5 years of Brexit uncertainty would probably be the time. Allowing a reset when we begin a new world outside the EU.
One of CL's vocal Tories reduced to this? Lovely, lovely stuff
Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green and Plaid Cymru grand coalition?
A coalition of losers would be embarrassing. If the biggest party were not involved in government........ That's what the Lib Dems were saying when they got in to bed with the Tories. It may not have been what they wanted but it was be right thing to do.
Issue now is that a) they wouldn't have enough seats and b) would they really do that again?
Lib Dems are a busted flush. SNP were all but begging everyone to form an alliance. Would one of the northern Irish parties go with the Tories, if they needed a couple of seats for a majority?
The Ulster Unionists had a formal alliance in 2010, and were almost wiped out, but are natural allies. The Democratic Unionist Party will have no difficulties aligning with the Conservatives on many issues (for a price), though the Tories are dangerously socially progressive for many in their ranks.
SDLP and Alliance would not, and Sinn Fein can't be arsed sitting in Westminster (they will say it's a principled abstentionist policy).
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
I reiterate it is based on nationwide seat-by-seat modelling and doesn't include all Labour seats that voted Leave only those where Tories predicted to win 45%+ (virtually guarantees the seat).
I'd be grateful if you could point me in the direction of this 'seat-by-seat modelling' that produces the results you outline - particularly if it's largely based on how constituencies voted in the EU Referendum as I think that would be to misunderstand and oversimplify why many people voted 'Leave'.
As far as I'm aware the Recent Yougov poll that predicted a possible hung parliament was the only poll so far in this election that analysed voting intentions at a constituency level rather than simply reflecting each party's national percentage support (whether it's anything like accurate is of course another matter).
It's not based on the results of the Brexit vote - my interpretation is that seats that voted Leave and are on course to vote 45%+ for Tory are highly unlikely to swing sufficiently in the last week.
There are of course several seats that voted Leave and aren't going Tory - after all 70% of Labour seats voted Leave!
I think Brexit is a far less important issue than you think it is. Article 50 is triggered and Labour don't seem interested in going against the vote. Mayhem has an awful record to defend and people who have seen their finances stretched since 2010 will be looking to whoever will help put a little extra in their pocket and who will keep public services from being dismantled.
I prefer to look at facts - I don't have a view on the relative importance of Brexit.
The probability say of any of the 238 seats that voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016 not voting for Tory in 2017 is minimal - that's more seats than Labour are likely to win in total.
Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green and Plaid Cymru grand coalition?
A coalition of losers would be embarrassing. If the biggest party were not involved in government........ That's what the Lib Dems were saying when they got in to bed with the Tories. It may not have been what they wanted but it was be right thing to do.
Issue now is that a) they wouldn't have enough seats and b) would they really do that again?
Lib Dems are a busted flush. SNP were all but begging everyone to form an alliance. Would one of the northern Irish parties go with the Tories, if they needed a couple of seats for a majority?
The Ulster Unionists had a formal alliance in 2010, and were almost wiped out, but are natural allies. The Democratic Unionist Party will have no difficulties aligning with the Conservatives on many issues (for a price), though the Tories are dangerously socially progressive for many in their ranks.
SDLP and Alliance would not, and Sinn Fein can't be arsed sitting in Westminster (they will say it's a principled abstentionist policy).
Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Green and Plaid Cymru grand coalition?
A coalition of losers would be embarrassing. If the biggest party were not involved in government........ That's what the Lib Dems were saying when they got in to bed with the Tories. It may not have been what they wanted but it was be right thing to do.
Issue now is that a) they wouldn't have enough seats and b) would they really do that again?
Lib Dems are a busted flush. SNP were all but begging everyone to form an alliance. Would one of the northern Irish parties go with the Tories, if they needed a couple of seats for a majority?
The Ulster Unionists had a formal alliance in 2010, and were almost wiped out, but are natural allies. The Democratic Unionist Party will have no difficulties aligning with the Conservatives on many issues (for a price), though the Tories are dangerously socially progressive for many in their ranks.
SDLP and Alliance would not, and Sinn Fein can't be arsed sitting in Westminster (they will say it's a principled abstentionist policy).
The Green or Plaid Cymru MPs could end up being kingmakers. That is the situation we have here in Spain where the ruling Popular Party does not have a majority and has to rely on the one MP from the Canary Islands Nationalists to get anything passed. The leverage this gets for the Canaries is incredible.
If it is a hung parliament what's the most likely outcome? Hard to see the Lib Dems propping up the Tories again.
No chance - you need to crunch the seat-by-seat maths - 370 or so Tory seats are a shoo-in...
238 voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016, and another 88 votes Tory in 2015 and polls (even adjusted for Labour surge) have them at 45%+ in each.
That's 326 in the bag before even looking at the 35 which voted Labour in 2015, Leave in 2016 and also polling 45%+.
Add another 10 they are assured to take from LibDem 'Leave' MPs, UKIP and the SNP and you get to 371.
The above is based on latest polls including YouGov.
I think that's a bit fanciful. 11 out of 12 area in the North East, for example, voted to leave. I don't expect Labour to lose many, if any, of their 26 of 29 constituencies in that same area.
I reiterate it is based on nationwide seat-by-seat modelling and doesn't include all Labour seats that voted Leave only those where Tories predicted to win 45%+ (virtually guarantees the seat).
I'd be grateful if you could point me in the direction of this 'seat-by-seat modelling' that produces the results you outline - particularly if it's largely based on how constituencies voted in the EU Referendum as I think that would be to misunderstand and oversimplify why many people voted 'Leave'.
As far as I'm aware the Recent Yougov poll that predicted a possible hung parliament was the only poll so far in this election that analysed voting intentions at a constituency level rather than simply reflecting each party's national percentage support (whether it's anything like accurate is of course another matter).
It's not based on the results of the Brexit vote - my interpretation is that seats that voted Leave and are on course to vote 45%+ for Tory are highly unlikely to swing sufficiently in the last week.
There are of course several seats that voted Leave and aren't going Tory - after all 70% of Labour seats voted Leave!
I think Brexit is a far less important issue than you think it is. Article 50 is triggered and Labour don't seem interested in going against the vote. Mayhem has an awful record to defend and people who have seen their finances stretched since 2010 will be looking to whoever will help put a little extra in their pocket and who will keep public services from being dismantled.
I prefer to look at facts - I don't have a view on the relative importance of Brexit.
The probability say of any of the 238 seats that voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016 not voting for Tory in 2017 is minimal - that's more seats than Labour are likely to win in total.
Was thinking back to the last debate last time around. This site had a real mix of views and the thread invoked genuine debate. Now it is massively one sided with no debate - just reams of posts with anti Tory sentiment.
I am on an F1 forum too, and that's gone the other way. Once again - anti Labour posts one after the other which also kills any debate.
Has something changed across the demographic of Charlton Life? Do we have a younger user base than two years ago? Do we have our own 'bubble' a la London and the EU referendum.
Time will tell - but it is a lot more one sided this time and was from the start.
Perhaps your perceived lack of supportive posts for the party of your choice is less to do with the changing demographics of this site and more to with the total paucity of any successful policies implemented by them?
Very difficult to post supportive responses without the postive policy outcomes to back up your point of view I'd suggest. But I remain genuinely interested in all the 'wins' the Tories have delivered on our behalf?
Yep. Caroline Lucas did herself proud. Fallon not bad and Corbyn also did well. Actually felt a bit sorry for the smarmy Rudd as she was on a hiding to nothing. I bet she was so glad to get to the end of the debate. Don't doubt that the tories will win because as Seth says they will pick up most of the unfolding UKIP votes but no cakewalk as Corbyn has been more competent than expected. Methinks Meire will hear a "vinegar pissers" version of 'Liar, Liar' if she is still around in August. Nice to hear a bit of ska, doncha think?
Comments
Eltham is one where Labour hold with 18.4k, Conservatives with 15.7k but UKIP took 6.5k, Efford is worried as he knows the vast majority of those who voted UKIP will likely vote conservatives this time (no UKIP standing although oddly the BNP are again). The Greens have done a deal with labour to not stand this time around. I think it will be close.
How does one spoil a ballot?
Don't worry - I am back in the room or normality. Just watched my favourite political clip and reminded myself of the crazy situation we find ourselves in where there is a very good chance of strangling the economic prosperity of this country purely in order to make the well off less well off.
Forgive me Maggie for I have sinned
Issue now is that a) they wouldn't have enough seats and b) would they really do that again?
As far as I'm aware the Recent Yougov poll that predicted a possible hung parliament was the only poll so far in this election that analysed voting intentions at a constituency level rather than simply reflecting each party's national percentage support (whether it's anything like accurate is of course another matter).
We can then watch these Tories without a plan for the Brexit negotiations proceed like Karel Fraeye in making it up as they go along.
I can only hope that the people who recourse to lawful direct action, such as striking, are able to resist the guilt trip that will be tried against them as they fight to keep their working communities together.
We are building a practical and philosophical wall in this country that will divide us as much as the Brexit vote has. The winners will protect their gated communities and posh post codes, and the losers will stand at the gates hopelessly hoping.
There are of course several seats that voted Leave and aren't going Tory - after all 70% of Labour seats voted Leave!
The probability say of any of the 238 seats that voted Tory in 2015 and Leave in 2016 not voting for Tory in 2017 is minimal - that's more seats than Labour are likely to win in total.
We're preparing to sell more just before the invasion, but had already parted with two Lynx & type 42 destroyer (a deal already planned by the previous Labour government, but completed by Thatcher) both used in the war.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-ready-to-sell-aircraft-to-junta-just-days-before-falklands-attack-8604088.html
SDLP and Alliance would not, and Sinn Fein can't be arsed sitting in Westminster (they will say it's a principled abstentionist policy).
Very difficult to post supportive responses without the postive policy outcomes to back up your point of view I'd suggest. But I remain genuinely interested in all the 'wins' the Tories have delivered on our behalf?
Don't doubt that the tories will win because as Seth says they will pick up most of the unfolding UKIP votes but no cakewalk as Corbyn has been more competent than expected.
Methinks Meire will hear a "vinegar pissers" version of 'Liar, Liar' if she is still around in August. Nice to hear a bit of ska, doncha think?