Absolutely no way of dismissing the popularity on the ground for Corbyn (nor the ineffectiveness of May / Tory campaign).
Do generally wonder if a lot of those people voting for Corbyn don't really have a clue what they are actually voting for because a socialist labour government (with a top table governance of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott) doesn't feel very 2017 to me.
And a hung parliament is a disaster for everyone imo
Agree. But I think it is also the case a lot of people voted for Brexit who did not have a clue what they were voting for.
In the early 90s it seemed (at least from here in the USA) that the purpose of the EU was simply centered around four things...
1. Ease of movement for citizens across borders
2. Single currency in order to make investments and money movement more efficient
3. Unify Europe fiscally so peace was more attractive than war, in the future
4. Set budget deficit limits so everyone played fair.
Now.... it seems from what we see here in the news the last several years, like the EU is trying to control everything socially as well, that they want to dominate the financial direction of each country and essentially supplant local government authority in almost every minor matter... and on top of all that... are NOT enforcing the fiscal limits they said they would.
Is this summary accurate? Partially accurate? Way off base?
Thanks.
Good questions.
I can understand why you might think that from afar. But living in the literal heart of Europe, I don't recognize your description.
It's always an interesting test to ask in both the U.K. and CZ, what somebody thinks are the three most pressing issues in their personal lives that could be improved by political action. The answers are invariably things that remain entirely in the gift of national politicians to fix.
It is definitely a live issue, the balance between national determinism and collective European solidarity. But if you imagine that there is some kind of authoritarian EU body that dictates how we all live, I have a question for you:
What nationality do you imagine these apparatchiks to be ?
First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.
First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.
Only 30,000 gets asked for that exit poll? It leaves a huge scope for error
It's actually surprising how few people you need to ask for a statistically accurate prediction.
It is surprising and interesting that over recent years they have been fairly accurate. Still something I don't quite understand and I guess maths is involved which is something I've really never been very good at.
First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.
Way off? Hi Diane!
Well a 14 seat difference is pretty large. More than enough to make a difference last time and again this time... could easily be significant. The exit poll people themselves have said on the BBC tonight that the seats figures could be 20 out either way for both Labour and con.
I'm actually a data analyst so the Diane comment is more of an insult than you Think!
First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.
Way off? Hi Diane!
Well a 14 seat difference is pretty large. More than enough to make a difference last time and again this time... could easily be significant. The exit poll people themselves have said on the BBC tonight that the seats figures could be 20 out either way for both Labour and con.
I was joking and yes of course it does make a difference in terms of overall majority. However it's still a pretty damn good estimate and if it's within that sort of range this time then it's a massive cock up from May and the Tories.
First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.
Way off? Hi Diane!
Well a 14 seat difference is pretty large. More than enough to make a difference last time and again this time... could easily be significant. The exit poll people themselves have said on the BBC tonight that the seats figures could be 20 out either way for both Labour and con.
I'm actually a data analyst so the Diane comment is more of an insult than you Think!
Nerd*
*He says jealous because he's not good enough at maths to be a statistician.
First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
We'll see but take your point, 1992 was way out, 2015 was out, I'd assume 25% postal vote is high compared to previous years, 2015 was around 16% and I guess earlier years considerably less than that. A very high proportion of postal voters return their paper (over 85%) whereas registered to vote at the polls is considerably lower.
I'll have a wager with you that the poll is wrong, it's just the amount and which way that we'll see.
Comments
But you don't need him.
It clearly would work both ways.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
I can understand why you might think that from afar. But living in the literal heart of Europe, I don't recognize your description.
It's always an interesting test to ask in both the U.K. and CZ, what somebody thinks are the three most pressing issues in their personal lives that could be improved by political action. The answers are invariably things that remain entirely in the gift of national politicians to fix.
It is definitely a live issue, the balance between national determinism and collective European solidarity. But if you imagine that there is some kind of authoritarian EU body that dictates how we all live, I have a question for you:
What nationality do you imagine these apparatchiks to be ?
And as we confirmed earlier, shy Tories are apparently grown men who get upset when strangers on the internet quote food bank statistics.
I'm actually a data analyst so the Diane comment is more of an insult than you Think!
Which would give Tories 3% lead nationally.
*He says jealous because he's not good enough at maths to be a statistician.
I'll have a wager with you that the poll is wrong, it's just the amount and which way that we'll see.